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Yglesias

Surrogacy and Inequality

Dana Goldstein commented on the first person account of Alex Kucynski’s outsources pregnancy in the most recent New York Times Magazine:

Yet there’s no mistaking that Hilling and Kuczynski come from vastly different worlds. Hilling is small town America to Kuczynski’s Manhattan; she is pink fleece to Kuczynski’s little black dress. The divide between them is brought home by an accompanying photo of Kuczynski standing in the yard of her lavish colonial in Southampton, New York, holding her son. Behind her, standing at attention and wearing a uniform, is Margo Clements, whom the caption tells us is Kuczynski’s “baby nurse.”

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Hilling, I’m sure, had no baby nurse to help raise her three kids. And while, at least according to Kuczynski’s narrative, Hilling enters into surrogacy cheerfully, happy to help an infertile couple, it’s hard to miss the underside to this story. Inequality and trouble paying for basics — like a college education — push some women to carry other women’s pregnancies. Unless this inequality is addressed, bearing wealthy women’s children (and the children of wealthy gay couples) will become some of the most financially rewarding work available to low and middle-income women, further cementing their identity as primarily reproductive. I believe surrogacy should be regulated and legal. But I don’t want to live in a country where women turn to surrogacy in order to pay their own children’s college bills.

It seems to me that the issue in this realm to really keep one’s eye on is the international domain. Even very rapid economic growth in, say, India will still leave it the case that there are hundreds of millions of Indian women who are dramatically poorer than well-off first-world women for quite some time yet. Kuczynski paid Hilling $25,000 for carrying her fetus which is a decent chunk of change in the United States but over six times per capita GDP in India. And there’s just no realistic prospect for closing these kind of global wealth gaps on a rapid time frame. When you think about the kind of difficulties that Mexicans are often willing to endure for a shot at low-wage, unpleasant jobs in the US service economy then I think you have to assume that there could be a lot of people who’d be eager to make thousands of dollars carrying another couple’s fetus if there were a regularized, legal way to do so.

Yglesias

Strange Swing

Joe The Plumber has a list of recommended books and the only non-plumbing volume is written by Ludwig von Mises? How is it, exactly, that we were supposed to believe this guy was a swing voter?

Climate Progress

Media eats crow: Green tech is still selling

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I have been quite critical of the mainstream media for using the global recession to attack clean tech (see “Global recession? Must be time for the media’s alternative-energy backlash“).

One reason the storyline was lame is that a recession this deep is going to hit all new capital projects (see “Note to media: Credit crunch kills dirty stuff, too“). A second reason is that there had been no evidence that clean tech was being harder hit than any other sector and some reason to believe it would be hit less hard (see “Despite market downturn, cleantech venture investment hits record $2.6B in 3rd quarter“). And, of course, the election of a Barack Obama means there is going to be a massive infusion of funding for clean tech.

While it is premature to say that green tech won’t suffer seriously from the recession — after all, we don’t know how long and strong the slowdown will be — the WSJ acknowledged today it may have have been premature in proclaiming trouble for one of the biggest recent winners in the clean tech business:

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Media

O’Reilly Uses Doctored Photo Of NBC President

Last July, Fox and Friends aired doctored photos of New York Times reporter Jacques Steinberg and editor Steven Reddicliffe while attacking them for writing stories critical of Fox News. As Media Matters noted, “the journalists’ teeth had been yellowed, their facial features exaggerated, and portions of Reddicliffe’s hair moved further back on his head.” Some saw the photos as anti-Semitic.

At the time, Bill O’Reilly laughed off the photo alterations: “Fox & Friends poked a little fun at Steinberg for misreporting the situation, as he does all the time, and they used an unflattering caricature of him.” He said Fox News had simply “made fun” of Steinberg — despite the fact that the Fox and Friends hosts did not explain that the photos were doctored when they aired them.

Now O’Reilly has added his own doctored image to the Fox repetoire, in a segment attacking NBC President Jeffery Zucker — apparently just for being the president of O’Reilly’s greatest rival:

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The image is stretched to make Zucker look unflattering. Compare O’Reilly’s photo to the original:

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O’Reilly’s doctoring is less egregious — and offensive — than that done last summer by Fox & Friends. Still, a doctored photo seems hardly worthy of the label “No Spin Zone.”

Yglesias

NYT: Fat Cats Need Their Fat

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Aaron Ross Sorkin offers a dire warning about the perils of low-paid bankers:

Mr. Pandit and others — to the extent you believe they are the right leaders of Citigroup — or whoever takes their roles are unlikely to hang around if they’re not amply paid.

The risk, Mr. Johnson said, is that if we taxpayers don’t offer the possibility of a payday, we won’t get the performance. “If you were in senior management and you knew you’d never get paid, you’re not going to work as hard or you’ll leave,” he said. “It’s actually worse if they stay. If you have a bunch of demoralized people hanging around, it will kill you.”

This seems like an odd worry to me. What would happen if we staffed the banks with a bunch of second-rate people? Would they drive their institutions into the ground, requiring billions in government funds to keep their firms afloat, and in the meantime drive the entire world economy into a serious recession? Oh, right, that’s what already happened. Felix Salmon adds the observation that “insofar as lower bank salaries would drive America’s best and brightest into other sectors of the economy, that would surely be a good thing.”

That last part seems important to me. I think it should be viewed as pretty distressing that over the past twenty years a large proportion of people with high-level quantitative skills have gone into the finance profession rather than working in the science and engineering fields they were trained in. That influx of quants into finance could, in principle, have been about developing a much more efficient allocation of capital, but I see little reason to believe that actually took place. Instead, their role seems to have been something more like that of a celebrity endorser for a product. The fact that LeBron James wears Nikes in exchange for money doesn’t actually do anything to improve the quality of their sneakers, but his association with the product gives it an air of legitimacy and helps the marketing a lot. And running a hedge fund or an investment bank or a private equity whatsits is, yes, in part a question of making savvy financial decisions. But it’s also in large part a question of running a savvy marketing campaign, of tricking people into believing convincing people that they can get super-normal risk-adjusted returns by going with your firm. Having a lot of kids with fancy degrees and weird Russian physics PhDs on hand might help you do that. But long-run growth and productivity would be better-served by having those people do basic research or make stuff.

Economy

FDIC Chair Laughs When Asked About ‘The Logic’ Behind Paulson’s Use Of The TARP

Today, the Wall Street Journal reported that the “number of consumers with delinquent mortgages is poised to almost double by the end of next year, hitting its highest level in at least 16 years.” In the fourth quarter of 2009, it is estimated that 7.17 percent of consumers will have mortgages that are 60 days or more past-due.

The Wonk Room has been arguing for some time that addressing the housing crisis is the best way to stem the overall financial meltdown. At the forefront of the effort to offer mortgage modifications is Sheila Bair, Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). Bair has put forth a plan that — for $24 billion — would help 1.5 million Americans avoid foreclosure. Thus far, however, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has rebuffed her request to pull that $24 billion from the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP).

Today on CNN, Bair was asked where the “the logic” is in Paulson’s refusal to let her implement her plan. Bair only laughed, later saying she and Paulson have “different perspectives on this issue.” Watch it:

A report being released today by the Government Accountability Office states that Treasury has “yet to address a number of critical issues” in combating the financial crisis. Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional panel overseeing the TARP, said that Treasury seems “to be lurching from one tactic to the next without clarifying how each step fits into an overall plan.”

However, there might still be hope for Paulson seeing the light. Yesterday, he signaled that Treasury is “actively engaged” in developing new financial rescue programs to be presented to Congress when they are “ready for implementation.”

Bair’s plan is ready. It would behoove Paulson to give her the money to act on it.

Media

America’s Predictable Elections

I liked reading 538.com during the election season as much as anyone, and still think it’s an insightful site with a lot of interesting things to say. That said, I’ve been kind of surprised by the post-election surge of praise for Nate Silver. You would think, based on some of the commentary, that his innovative and complicated formula wound up giving us some incredible insight we couldn’t have gotten from anywhere else. In fact, though the 538 algorithm performed pretty well, the core reason it performed well was that crude polling averages are very accurate in US Presidential elections:

Assuming that Obama will win by 7.1%, the Pollster.com regression line of all national polls was only off by only 0.5%. The same can be said for the simple mean of national polls performed by Real Clear Politics. The lesson here is that when there are a high number of public polls, election forecasters are not very useful. Even a schmo like me can just conduct a simple mean of all the polls, and come pretty close to the final result.

The high stakes in US Presidential elections make people feel a lot of anxiety about outcomes. This makes people very interested in the subject of election forecasting. And they would like their level of interest to be matched by the forecasting process itself being interesting. But in fact the large number of public polls on something like a presidential election makes the outcomes quite easy to forecast based on crude measures. What’s more, even absent polling, Presidential election outcomes seem to be pretty predictable based on nothing more than macroeconomic variables. But even if you don’t believe in the fundamentals, the reality is that “the polls,” in the aggregate, are very accurate and there’s not much more to it. For other things, like primary elections in states that have rarely held competitive primaries (and this is where 538 initially made a name for itself), or in little-polled House races, there’s lots of room for other methods. But presidential elections are easy.

Politics

Gates: Obama ‘framed’ withdrawal from Iraq ‘just right.’

Yesterday, President-elect Obama said that “16 months is the right time frame” for withdrawing all U.S. combat troops from Iraq, noting that he would “listen to the recommendations” his commanders on the ground. Asked today if he considered himself “at odds” with Obama on the timetable, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that he “would subscribe to what the President-elect said yesterday in Chicago.” Pressed by reporters on the length of the time frame,” Gates said that Obama “framed it just right yesterday.” Watch it:

Climate Progress

If there’s no U.S. climate bill in 2009, would U.N. climate talks collapse in Copenhagen?

I have argued that Obama won’t be able to ratify any global climate treaty that is likely to come out of Copenhagen next December. Since the only thing worse than no global climate treaty in 2009 is a treaty that the President can’t get ratified, Obama, I believe, should be lowering expectations rather than making promises he can’t keep.

Greenwire reports (subs. req’d) that Eileen Claussen, executive director of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and a former senior Clinton administration climate official, said something quite similar (though for slightly different reasons):

“We do not want to repeat Kyoto, where you go and negotiate something and then you can not deliver it…. That’s the worst of possible worlds, because nothing happens.”

… Claussen’s Pew Center has been among the most vocal of the groups trying to lower expectations on the timing for a new international climate agreement given the state of play in Washington. Claussen said she does not think Obama and Congress can finish cap-and-trade legislation in 2009. And she wants the Copenhagen deadline pushed back to give the United States the time it needs to finish its climate law.

Claussen and her colleagues said European officials have told them privately that they are aware of the tight U.N. schedule. But they cannot say this publicly for fear it will disrupt momentum toward a final climate deal. While Claussen credits Obama for giving some important signals on his position, she would like to see him go a step further and tell international officials that the United States won’t be ready to negotiate and agree to a final climate pact by Copenhagen.

If expectations are not lowered before Copenhagen, Claussen said, she worries that the U.N. talks could collapse, generating a fresh round of antagonism toward the United States.

“That,” she warned, “really doesn’t benefit anybody.”

I have talked to a number of colleagues with congressional experience who are skeptical that something as complicated as a national cap & trade bill could be completed in 2009, especially given everything else on Obama’s plate.

I believe the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change process can’t survive in its current form. But even if you think it can, Obama should try to delay Copenhagen until after there is a U.S. climate bill. It would be crazy for him to commit to something in international talks in 2009 that he can’t get through his own Congress as a domestic bill in 2010.

And I would repeat that if a Copenhagen Protocol does not include a binding commitment by China to cap emissions by 2020 — with some restrictions on how fast emissions can grow between now and then — it has no chance whatsoever of getting 67 votes in the U.S. Senate at any time during Obama’s term(s) in office. I would go even further: Such a flawed global climate treaty in 2009 might actually undermine chances for a U.S. domestic bill in 2010.

E&E News has more opinions on this subject:

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Yglesias

Post-Cedar Lebanon

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Thanassis Cambanis, who’s covered the Middle East for The Boston Globe and The New York Times, has an original commentary out for Middle East Progress on how to deal with the new Lebanese realities rather than the fantasies of the Cedar Revolution:

In short, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are stronger in Lebanon that any point in the last decade. In order to foster better ties with a Lebanese government that includes Hezbollah as well as the pro-Western coalition, U.S. policy makers should consider building stronger relations with ambiguous Lebanese politicians who must deal with Hezbollah as a practical matter. And Washington might have to make a thorny choice: find a way to deal with a government dominated by Hezbollah, or else cut off all ties and relations with one of the few states in the Middle East where a real battle of ideas has been joined. The dialogue in Lebanon is no less critical because of the struggle between Hezbollah, which maintains its own independent military, and those who want the state at last to exercise a real monopoly on security.

It will no doubt be awkward to find a way to forge relations with a state that has at its center a group defined as terrorist by Washington and several European countries including Britain, and which remains in a state of war with Israel, America’s closest Middle East ally. But more complex political quandaries have been resolved, and in this case the formula will probably involve Americans talking directly to independents that have close ties to Hezbollah, rather than party officials themselves.

To add an obvious addendum to this, clearly policy toward Lebanon will be impacted by whether or not the United States chooses to aggressively pursue the seemingly promising possibility of Israel-Syria peace talks. But it seems to me that this kind of approach to Lebanon would be a useful complement to an approach to Syria.

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