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Yglesias

Illusions of Rationalism

I’ve been wanting to write something called “the case for dynastic politics” but I couldn’t really think of a good case for dynastic politics — what I was really coming up with was a case that we ought to admire the Kennedy family’s sense of noblesse oblige, but that’s a different story. It did occur to me, however, that some of the hostility to dynasticism stems from a sort of misguided desire to pretend that electoral outcomes are this incredibly rational process. So if we all point at Caroline Kennedy and say she’s only under serious consideration because of her name, then maybe if we all object loudly enough to this it’ll turn out that the other 99 Senators are there because they’ve passed a set of rigorous credentialing examinations or something.

But of course that’s not how things work at all. The whole business of electioneering is full of irrationality and tradition all the way from top to bottom. The notion that all members of the Kennedy family are ex officio considered plausible candidates for public office is weird, but it’s a particular oddity that exists against background conditions that are also odd. And in fact when Americans hear about French politics where politicians are expected to attend the ENA and then go work in the bureaucracy before getting into politics, that seems incredibly odd. But politicians write rules for bureaucrats to follow and supervise bureaucrats, so why shouldn’t experience in the bureaucracy be considered essential?

Security

Fratto: ‘No One Could Have Anticipated’ Terrorists Flying Planes Into Buildings Before 9/11

The Bush White House is in full-throttle spin mode, attempting to repair the President’s badly tarnished legacy. This afternoon, Fox News lent a hand in the effort to revise history. In an interview with White House press spokesman Tony Fratto, Fox anchor Jon Scott claimed that, prior to 9/11, “nobody was thinking” that terrorists could fly planes into buildings as an act of terrorism. Fratto agreed:

SCOTT: Back to the 9/11 attacks, which happened after all pretty early in this president’s first term, I mean nobody was thinking that there’d be terrorists flying 767s into buildings at that point.

FRATTO: That’s true. I mean, no one could have anticipated that kind of attack — or very few people.

Watch it:

In fact, intelligence analysts had been warning for some time that terrorists could hijack planes. On December 4, 1998, for example, the Clinton administration received a President’s Daily Brief entitled “Bin Ladin Preparing to Hijack US Aircraft and Other Attacks.” The Clinton administration responded by convening its top counterterrorism experts and heightening security at airports around the nation.

On August 6, 2001, the Bush administration received a President’s Daily Brief entitled “Bin Laden Determined to Strike U.S.” The memo warned:

We have not been able to corroborate some of the more sensational threat reporting, such as that from a —- service in 1998 saying that Bin Laden wanted to hijack a U.S. aircraft to gain the release of “Blind Sheikh” Omar Abdel Rahman and other U.S.-held extremists.

Nevertheless, FBI information since that time indicates patterns of suspicious activity in this country consistent with preparations for hijackings or other types of attacks, including recent surveillance of federal buildings in New York.

Moreover, the Federal Aviation Administration “had indeed considered the possibility that terrorists would hijack a plane and use it as a weapon,” and in 2001 it distributed a CD-ROM presentation to airlines and airports that cited the possibility of a suicide hijacking.

In response to that threat warning, the Bush administration did nothing. The 9/11 Commission reports, “We have found no indication of any further discussion before September 11 among the President and his top advisers of the possibility of a threat of an al Qaeda attack in the United States.”

Culture

The BSG Era

Newsweek “asked its cultural critics to pick the one work in their field that they believe exemplifies what it was like to be alive in the age of George W. Bush.” Unfortunately, the very first one to answer is the television critic and he makes the right choice — Battlestar Galactica. I found this via Scott McLemee who also concurs in that judgment.

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There have been better television shows than BSG, which I’ve tended to find uneven. But the show’s had some brilliant runs, and really nothing else has done nearly so much to capture the dystopian nature of the Bush years.

Politics

State Department panel recommends dumping Blackwater in Iraq.

The AP reports that a panel commissioned by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after Blackwater’s infamous September 2007 Baghdad shootout has called for the security firm’s contract not to be renewed next year. Since the shootings, the Bush administration has repeatedly defended the firm, renewing its contract in May. Last October, the State Department granted Blackwater guards immunity after the shootings.

Security

Bush’s Military Legacy

bush-war-college.jpgIn the latest stop in his “legacy tour,” President Bush spoke at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania earlier today.

Choosing the War College for the one of the last legs of Bush’s victory limp is deeply ironic. As Dan Froomkin notes, “more than a month before the U.S. invaded Iraq, the War College published a prescient report — Reconstructing Iraq: Insights, Challenges, and Missions for Military Forces in a Post-Conflict Scenario — that the White House essentially ignored.”

As James Fallows wrote for the Atlantic in 2004, the report warned of ethnic and regional tensions, advised that Iraqis would quickly turn against an occupying force and set out a 135-item checklist of key tasks that might have avoided disaster.

Then, in December of 2003, the college published a scathing report saying the war in Iraq was not only distracting from the real war on terror, but that Bush was pursuing an “unrealistic” quest that might lead to wars with states posing no serious threat.

Bush nevertheless chose the War College as the site of a major speech about the war in May 2004 — a desperate and unsuccessful attempt to reverse the growing tide of public discontent over a campaign that had turned increasingly violent.

But the real purpose of siting the speech at the War College was to allow Bush one of his final opportunities to bask in the reflected glory of the United States military. Throughout his presidency, Bush has made much of his role as commander-in-chief. He has regularly used the accoutrements of soldiery to cultivate an image of himself as a “war leader.” This is pretty unseemly for someone who, when he was of age, used his family’s connections to avoid combat in a war he claims to have supported. But it’s even more so given that few, if any, American leaders in history have more poorly served America’s military than George W. Bush.

As Center for American Progress senior fellow Lawrence Korb said in congressional testimony in July 2007, “America’s ground forces are stretched to their breaking point.”

Not since the aftermath of the Vietnam War has the U.S. Army been so depleted…The Army is severely overstretched and its overall readiness has significantly declined. As Gen. Colin Powell noted last December [2006] well before the surge, the active Army is about broken, and as Gen. Barry McCaffrey pointed out when we testified together before the Senate Armed Services Committee in April [2007], “the ground combat capability of the U.S. armed forces is shot.” The Marine Corps is suffering from the same strains as the Army, and the situation for the Army National Guard is even worse.

A March 2008 survey of military officers conducted by Foreign Policy and the Center for a New American Security found that “the U.S. military is ‘severely strained‘ by two large-scale occupations in the Middle East, other troop deployments, and problems recruiting.”

“They see a force stretched dangerously thin and a country ill-prepared for the next fight,” said the report, ‘The U.S. Military Index,’ which polled 3,400 current and former high-level military officers.

Sixty percent of the officers surveyed said that the military is weaker now than it was five years ago, often citing the number of troops deployed to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Bush is of course right to praise the service of America’s fighting forces. But it’s also important to recognize that, in exchange for volunteering to put their lives on the line, the men and women of our military enter into a bargain with the American people. They sign up based upon the understanding that they and their families will be taken care of, and that their sacrifice will not be thrown away in unnecessary wars and grinding occupations to implement unrealistic schemes sold with dishonest arguments. George W. Bush has violated this bargain. That is a part of his legacy that he cannot escape, no matter how many flags he stands before.

Climate Progress

WMO confirms “Overall [Arctic] ice volume was less than that in any other year”

“Arctic Ice Volume Lowest Ever as Globe Warms: UN,” is how Reuters reported it today. Sorry I missed that in writing my earlier post on the 2008 report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), but it was buried deep in the press release (see below).

Note that the WMO is making a stronger statement than the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) did in October (see NSIDC stunner: Arctic ice at “Likely Record-Low Volume”).

nsidc-10-volume.png

The NSIDC figure compares ice age in September 2007 (left) and September 2008 (right). It shows the sharp increase in thin first-year ice (red) and the decline in thick multi-year ice — both “second-year ice” (orange) and “third-year and older ice” (yellow). “White indicates areas of ice below ~50 percent, for which ice age cannot be determined.”

The WMO release says of the Arctic:

Read more

Politics

Palin-appointed commission recommends $25,000 raise for the governor.

The new Alaska State Officers Compensation Commission has recommended that Gov. Sarah Palin (R) receive a 20 percent raise, pushing her salary up from $125,000 to $150,000. However, the five-member commission was appointed by the governor, with two of them selected “from lists recommended by legislative leaders.” At the same time, Palin has proposed cutting the state’s “general-fund spending” by 7 percent to “help cope with revenue shortfalls, in large part due to the free-fall in oil prices.”

Yglesias

Parking Shortages Don’t Encourage Shopping

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As I’ve said before, the part of people’s brains that understands things like supply, demand, and shortages seems to turn off when the subject turns to street parking. Here in DC, for example, we turn our parking meters off and have free parking downtown on Saturdays. People like convenient parking spaces. They’re valuable. And when you set the price of a valuable commodity at zero, you get parking shortages. Which is what we have on Saturdays in key retail corridors. Perversely, the stated reason for this policy of guaranteed shortages is that it’s supposed to encourage people to come downtown to shop:

But [David] Catania and outgoing member Carol Schwartz both spoke passionately about free Saturday parking as an incentive to draw suburban residents into DC to shop and eat, and to encourage DC residents to stay in the District on weekends to spend their dollars. It might be a compelling argument, except for one thing: there’s never any available street parking downtown or in busy neighborhood retail districts on weekend afternoons and evenings.

Schwartz introduced and passed a ban on Saturday parking fees in 1997. “We get money when people come into DC to eat or shop, or DC residents stay to eat,” she said. “I asked people, ‘Why do you go to the suburbs?’ They said, ‘They’ve got free parking.’”

That might have been true in 1997, but not today. People go downtown because of the great restaurants, exciting nightlife, and walkable shopping streets. If you just want to drive to a big box store, the suburbs will win out every time. The nice restaurants downtown all run valet services. If free parking really deters so many people, why are these restaurants packed while the valets are charging $10 for parking during dinner?

Unless we want to blanket our city with surface parking lots (a very bad idea!) downtown businesses can never compete with suburban businesses on the basis of pure parking convenience. But downtown locations have other advantages. But be all that as it may, the best parking-related thing you can do for downtown businesses is to park pricing rationally. You don’t want the fee to be so high that nobody’s using the spaces. But you want it to be high enough that people can generally find a space where they’re trying to go. This isn’t about discouraging people from driving or parking, it’s about ensuring that parking is done efficiently. That kind of performance parking will reduce traffic on the streets (fewer people searching for parking spots) and be better for business. But there’s desperate need to educate the business community, because politicians are often being responsive to what business owners are telling them. One possibility would be to earmark a share of the parking fees in any given area to go to the local BID or something else along those lines.

Economy

Why Did Bailout Beneficiary Goldman Sachs Pay A 1% Effective Tax Rate In 2008?

goldman1.JPGBloomberg reported today that Goldman Sachs, which received $10 billion in loan guarantees from U.S. taxpayers earlier this year, will pay just 1 percent in taxes on 2008 profits. In 2007, they paid 34.1 percent.

Maybe their operations in low-tax countries suddenly became very profitable. Maybe they used their fourth quarter losses and accumulated tax credits appropriately to decrease their overall tax burden in tough economic times (this year, Goldman Sachs posted its first quarterly losses since going public, though its annual profits were positive).

Or maybe it’s just another troubling example of huge companies using shelters and loopholes to wriggle out of tax obligations.

Goldman’s financial statements say that this lower rate came partially from changes in the “geographic earnings mix.” Robert Willens, CEO of a tax and accounting advisory firm, told Bloomberg that this meant “they have taken steps to ensure that a lot of their income is earned in lower-tax jurisdictions.”

A recent GAO report found that between 1998 and 2005, by “about two-thirds of corporations operating in the United States did not pay taxes,” either through loopholes and shelters or by incorporating as tax-exempt entities. The United States actually collects much less revenue than its 35 percent statutory rate would suggest because of these tax loopholes, shelters, and giveaways that minimize, or completely eliminate corporate taxes.

Meanwhile, President Bush’s IRS has recently pushed through a series of rule changes that are “unusually aggressive” in lowering corporate taxes, “going above and beyond what has been allowed in the past.”

For bail-out thirsty banks, the excessive income sheltering is a bit unseemly. As U.S. Representative Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) explained, “with the right hand out begging for bailout money, the left is hiding it offshore.

Politics

Sen. Blanche Lincoln: I May Vote Against Employee Free Choice Act

ap071203023263.jpg The Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) is set to be one of the early battles between progressives and conservatives in the 111th Congress. The bill would give workers the option to form a union through a “card-check” system, in which a union would be recognized if a majority of workers signed a petition testifying to their desire to organize.

With the right wing and big business interests lining up against the measure, progressives need all the support they can get in Congress. However, the AP reports today that Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is indicating she may vote against the measure:

Sen. Blanche Lincoln says she doesn’t think federal legislation that would allow labor organizations to unionize workplaces without secret-ballot elections is necessary. But in an interview with The Associated Press today, Lincoln gave herself room to support the measure if it’s brought up later.

Business and labor groups are pressuring the Democratic senator from Arkansas for support either way. Tim Griffin, a potential challenger to the senator’s 2010 re-election bid, has said her stand could be an issue in the race.

Lincoln’s potential opposition to EFCA is troubling. After all, unionization helps improve the economic conditions of workers, and Arkansas is in dire need of economic help. As the Wonk Room’s Pat Garofalo points out:

In 2007, just 8.8 percent of Arkansas workers were members of unions. That same year, an Arkansas worker’s average weekly wage was $712, which was 44th in the nation.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research has found that “unionization raises the wages of the typical low-wage worker (one in the 10th percentile) by 20.6 percent.” Furthermore, were the Free Choice Act to pass, it is estimated that an additional 14,157 workers in Arkansas would receive health insurance, while 11,164 would receive pension benefits.

Matt Yglesias, however, finds one reason Lincoln may be unwilling to back EFCA: Wal-Mart. The megastore has a long history of opposing unions, and Lincoln — along with other Arkansas politicians — are strong backers of Wal-Mart.

Who will win Lincoln’s vote? Wal-Mart or her struggling constituents?

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