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Yglesias

What Would The Roman Empire Do?

Tom Ricks: “The latest round of massive corporate layoffs reminds of the financial crisis the Roman Empire suffered in 33 A.D.”

The Emperor Tiberius seems like a man who wouldn’t shy away from nationalizing a bank or two:

Tiberius also raised funds by accusing Sextus Marius, the richest man in Spain, of incest — almost certainly a trumped-up charge — and then having him thrown headlong from the Tarpeian Rock (see below), a cliff at the edge of Rome’s Capitoline Hill. “Tiberius kept his gold mines for himself,” Tacitus notes. It makes me think that Wall Street is getting off easy.

Among other things, we have some real crooks on Wall Street.

Yglesias

Getting to Effectiveness

het_on_page_1.jpg

We have some very good evidence that teachers vary quite a bit in terms of their effectiveness in improving student achievement. We also have good evidence that the current certification process doesn’t do a good job of tracking effectiveness—certified teachers are no more effective than teachers who’ve come through “alternative certification” tracks. It’s also clear that our policies don’t reward more-effective teachers in a manner that’s consistent with the importance of retaining highly-effective teachers to building a highly effective school. Nor do our policies do anything to try to ensure that highly effective teachers can be found in the schools with the highest-need students. On the contrary, they tend to do the reverse. These basic points—and the idea that we ought to change things—have been penetrating mainstream consciousness of late. But it’s often not clear exactly what policy shifts will make it possible to obtain and use data on teacher effectiveness, especially because education policy gets made at a lot of different levels.

Yesterday, CAP released an excellent report from Robin Chait that recaps what we know and goes step-by-step through the issue of how federal policy could help support the idea of shifting from a system based on qualifications to a system based on effectiveness.

One interesting issue is whether Republicans will show any interest in these kind of things as we move toward re-authorization of NCLB/ESEA. The last version of the bill was really the only significant bipartisan initiative of the Bush years—a meeting of minds between George W. Bush on the one hand, and Ted Kennedy and George Miller on the other. And many conservative intellectuals are interested in this stuff, in no small part because teacher’s unions don’t much care for it. But in recent years, conservative politicians have more-or-more retreated to local control bromides and the current crop of GOP congressmen seems more Limbaughized than ever before.

Climate Progress

The best climate blog you aren’t reading

I know the climate junkies out there are reading RealClimate and DeSmogBlog and all The New Top 10 Climate Blogs.

But I’d like to direct you to Greenfyre’s, which Alexa suggests folks aren’t reading (yet). I was first taken by the blog of biologist Mike Kaulbars when I saw the post “Global Warming is over! once every decade or so …” which had this great figure:

Global Warming ends every decade or so ...

It’s always cooling, except, of course, when it’s not.

If you have your own hidden gem of a climate blog — an internet geode, as it were — I’d love to hear about it.

Climate Progress

Economic Stimulus, Part 1: 16% Green?

Congress is expected to give final approval to a massive economic stimulus package in the next couple of weeks. But before it does, there’s important work to be done on the color and content of the package. Lawmakers should address three questions:

  • Is the package green enough?
  • Is it visionary enough?
  • Can the beneficiaries handle the money?

I’ll offer some thoughts on each of these questions in a three-part post, starting with the green issue.

Read more

Politics

Bipartisanship? DeMint Predicts Zero Senate GOP Votes For Obama’s Recovery Package

Yesterday, despite President Obama’s unprecedented outreach — which included multiple working sessions on Capitol Hill and a White House happy hourzero House GOP members voted for the economic recovery package. Their reasoning was that Obama’s recovery package did not contain enough Bushonomics.

Today, hours after the GOP’s defiant no-vote, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor ironically penned an op-ed in Politico saying that the GOP should not simply become the party of “no” to the Obama agenda. “We pledge to become a party of inclusion, not exclusion,” he proclaimed:

At a moment when the country needs our help, it would be a great mistake for the House GOP to turn inward and simply become the party of “no.” We want our new president to succeed, and America needs our new President to succeed, which is why we will contribute the full force of our ideas to help him navigate the choppy waters.

The recovery legislation will now be heard by the Senate. Is there hope for bipartisanship there? Unlikely. Today on Fox News, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) excoriated the legislation and said that he “thinks” the bill will receive zero Senate GOP votes:

DEMINT: But I think it is going to help define the Republicans and the Democrats once again. Because every Republican in the House rejected this, and I think every Republican in the Senate might do as well.

Watch it:

The House GOP was unwilling to compromise from the start, requesting earlier this week that the caucus present “100 percent” opposition to the package. With DeMint’s comments, it appears that conservative senators are preparing to mount a similar offensive.

In his op-ed, Cantor emphasized that he wants “our new president to succeed.” If that is the case, why did his caucus take its marching orders from Rush Limbaugh, who has explicitly said that he wants Obama to “fail?”

Update

The Wonk Room’s Pat Garofalo notes that just a few weeks ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said, “I don’t think [the stimulus is] going to have any problem getting over 60 votes.” Will McConnell keep his word and encourage members of his caucus to support the recovery?

Economy

FLASHBACK: McConnell Said Stimulus Not Going To Have Any Problem ‘Getting Over 60 Votes’

mcconnell.jpgYesterday, the House passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on a 244-188 vote, with every Republican voting against the legislation. Now the bill passes to the Senate for debate and a potential vote next week.

The Senate version of the legislation is not entirely in sync with the House’s version. As McClatchy reported last week, the Senate Finance Committee has already “added some provisions desperately sought by corporate America“:

The Senate bill includes a pro-business tax provision called bonus depreciation, which would allow companies accelerated write-offs of existing equipment and inventory if they make new purchases. The Senate version also incorporates a complicated but important provision that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups are pushing. This measure, which isn’t in the House bill, would allow some companies to reduce taxes if they buy down their debt between late 2008 and 2011.

Even with these extra business provisions — which conservatives have complained are absent from the House bill — 9 out of 10 Republicans on the Finance Committee voted against the draft.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said just few weeks ago that “I don’t think [the stimulus is] going to have any problem getting over 60 votes.” He also reportedly promised that Senate Republicans “would not filibuster against the stimulus package.” Will McConnell keep his word? Or will conservatives continue to deride the economic recovery while advocating a return to Bushonomics?

Yglesias

The 1934 Midterms

There’s been some interest in comments regarding how I square my economic determinist accounts of politics with the 1934 congressional elections in which Democrats scored big wins despite the Depression still being sucky. Look at this chart of employment:

755px_us_employment_graph___1920_to_1940svg_1.png

The absolute level in 1934 was very bad, but there was sharp improvement at the time, reversing years of collapse and stagnation. By contrast the recession of the early 1990s was followed by a so-called “jobless recovery.”

Yglesias

After GWOT

I wrote in my TAP column last week that dropping the “war on terror” conceptual framework seemed implicit in a lot of President Obama’s actions and was key to his campaign promise to not just end the war in Iraq, but also the mindset that got us into war. Roger Cohen observes that in his al-Arabiya interview, Obama got closer than ever in explicitly doing this. And a good thing, too. I endorse Cohen’s whole column (incidentally, I feel like I used to disagree with Cohen a lot but don’t anymore — not sure who’s changed).

Security

Torture Lover John Yoo Excoriates Obama For Banning Torture

yoo-hands1.jpgJohn Yoo, infamous author of the Bush administration legal memos authorizing the use of torture on suspected terrorists, slams President Obama for banning torture in a Wall Street Journal op-ed today, gravely warning that Obama “may have opened the door to further terrorist acts on U.S. soil.”

Throughout the article, Yoo insists that torture is America’s most effective weapon against terrorists and warns that without it, the U.S. will be incapable of intelligence-gathering:

Eliminating the Bush system will mean that we will get no more information from captured al Qaeda terrorists. Every prisoner will have the right to a lawyer (which they will surely demand), the right to remain silent, and the right to a speedy trial. [...]

Relying on the civilian justice system not only robs us of the most effective intelligence tool to avert future attacks, it provides an opportunity for our enemies to obtain intelligence on us.

Considering the Bush administration repeatedly insisted its use of coercive techniques was “limited,” it would be a far stretch even for loyal Bushies to suggest that torture is not the one and only method to obtaining information. And as ThinkProgress has made clear again and again, numerous intelligence experts and real interrogators agree that, far from being “the most effective intelligence tool,” torture simply doesn’t work.

Yoo continues his screed by making up facts about Obama’s ban:

The CIA must now conduct interrogations according to the rules of the Army Field Manual, which prohibits coercive techniques, threats and promises, and the good-cop bad-cop routines used in police stations throughout America. … His new order amounts to requiring — on penalty of prosecution — that CIA interrogators be polite.

Yoo has no idea what he’s talking about. Nothing requires anyone to “be polite” — although the rapport building method has often proved to be interrogators’ most effective technique. And the notion that good-cop/bad-cop would be banned is simply false, Media Matters pointed out earlier this week:

In fact, the Army Field Manual explicitly permits good cop-bad cop interrogations under the name of “Mutt and Jeff” interrogations, which involve two interrogators “display[ing] opposing personalities and attitudes toward the source.” The Field Manual says the “goal of this technique is to make the source identify with one of the interrogators and thereby establish[ing] rapport and cooperation.”

It’s no secret that Yoo is an ardent torture enthusiast: He famously said that only those techniques that inflict pain equivalent to “death, organ failure or permanent damage resulting in a loss of significant body functions” constitute torture, and last year refused to agree that the president could not order a detainee buried alive. With Obama signaling a clean break from the Bush administration’s terrorism policies, it’s no wonder Yoo is desperate to restore his crumbling torture regime.

Update

Yoo also makes it perfectly clear that Bush himself directly and explicitly ordered torture, including the waterboarding of at least three detainees:

What is needed are the tools to gain vital intelligence, which is why, under President George W. Bush, the CIA could hold and interrogate high-value al Qaeda leaders. On the advice of his intelligence advisers, the president could have authorized coercive interrogation methods like those used by Israel and Great Britain in their antiterrorism campaigns. (He could even authorize waterboarding, which he did three times in the years after 9/11.)

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