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Odierno: ‘If They Ask Us…We Will Probably Stay’ In Mosul

odierno1.jpgFollowing yesterday’s announcement of the withdrawal of 12,000 U.S. troops from Iraq by September, ABC has an interview with Gen. Ray Odierno in which he tells Martha Raddatz that “he believes all U.S. troops will be out of Iraq by 2011, as laid out in the security agreement announced by President Obama.”

Odierno said the U.S. troop presence in Iraq will “thin out” across the entire country between February and August 2010, though “slower in some places than others,” to undertake the training mission. He considered it likely that areas of northern Iraq like Diyala province and the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk “will be some of the last areas we leave.”

Odierno also suggests that because of continuing insurgent activity in the northern city of Mosul, U.S. troops might stay there past June 30, 2009 — the date by which the SOFA requires all U.S. combat troops to leave Iraqi cities — but that this would only be at the request of the Iraqi government.

“Our strategy is the joint security stations stay and the Iraqis man these combat outposts. The Iraqis could ask us to stay in Mosul after June 30, but that will be their decision,” he said. “If they ask us to stay we will probably stay and help them out. If they ask us to just provide them the advising and training support, then we’ll do that. So there are still some decisions that have to be made.”

Article 24, Section 2 of the SOFA (pdf) states that “All United States combat forces shall withdraw from Iraqi cities, villages… no later than June 30, 2009,” which suggests either that the agreement would have to be amended, or, as is more likely, that U.S. combat troops would be redefined as “not combat troops.” There’s precedent for this in past U.S. military interventions, but what’s unknown is how something like this would play politically in Iraq. Maliki accrued a lot of political capital by securing a timeline for U.S. withdrawal, and it remains to be seen whether and how much he would lose by being seen to abrogate it.

Politics

Vitter Stands By His $249 Million In Earmarks While Complaining That The Omnibus Bill Is ‘Bloated’

vitpic.jpgRepublicans like Sens. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), have been attacking the $410 billion omnibus spending bill, claiming that it has too much spending and too many earmarks. One of the loudest voices calling for the bill’s defeat has been Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), despite his earmarks worth $249 million for 142 projects.

In an interview on Laura Ingraham’s radio show today, Vitter defended himself against charges that his position is hypocritical. “I don’t think it’s wrong to advocate for specific priorities in your state if it doesn’t change your opinion about an overall bill, which I think in this case is way too bloated,” said Vitter.

Pressed by Ingraham about whether it was “worth it to put these earmarks in,” Vitter said that “the important bottom line” was that he would vote against “a bloated bill, $410 billion”:

VITTER: Laura, I understand your argument. I think the important bottom line is when the vote comes, does David Vitter or Murkowski or Bond or anyone else vote for a bloated bill, $410 billion in this case. I can tell you what my answer is going to be. Ever since I’ve known the size and scope of this bill, I’ve said that’s way out of line. It’s 8 percent increase in these areas of the federal government, which is the most since Jimmy Carter.

Listen here:

Vitter continually said that the bill is too “bloated,” but he never suggested that he would be willing to do his part to slim it down by cutting his own earmarks. Considering that the bill is expected to pass, Vitter appears ready to take credit for the earmarked projects after voting against the bill.

Vitter claimed that “ever since” he learned the bill’s price tag, he has said that it was “way out of line.” This claim, however, is questionable. The House passed the $410 billion omnibus on Feb. 25, but as recently as March 1st he was telling his constituents that he was undecided about how he would vote on it.

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

The Trouble With Local and Organic

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I think a lot of us have had the suspicion that the idea that everyone should eat only local, organic food is unrealistic not just in a “not going to happen” sense but in a very strong “wouldn’t actually be possible” sense. Paul Roberts in a great Mother Jones article about what sustainable agriculture would really entail gets the numbers:

In fact, most of the familiar candidates for alternative food would have trouble operating on the kind of scale necessary for a world of 6.7 billion people. Consider what it would take to make our farm system entirely organic. The only reason industrial organic agriculture can get away with replenishing its soils with manure or by planting nitrogen-fixing cover crops is that the industry is so tiny—making up less than 3 percent of the US food supply (and just 5.3 percent even in gung-ho green cultures like Austria’s). If we wanted to rid the world of synthetic fertilizer use—and assuming dietary habits remain constant—the extra land we’d need for cover crops or forage (to feed the animals to make the manure) would more than double, possibly triple, the current area of farmland, according to Vaclav Smil, an environmental scientist at the University of Manitoba. Such an expansion, Smil notes, “would require complete elimination of all tropical rainforests, conversion of a large part of tropical and subtropical grasslands to cropland, and the return of a substantial share of the labor force to field farming—making this clearly only a theoretical notion.”

Now a couple of things on the plus side. There’s pretty ample reason to believe that it would be desirable for dietary habits to not “remain constant.” Americans, and other big-time meat consumers, seem to eat substantially more meat than is healthy for us. A switch to a dynamic in which less meat is eaten, but meat-dollars are held constant so that you get less of a higher-quality product, would be tastier and healthier and move in the direction of sustainability. At the same time, most people aren’t Americans. If the billions of extremely poor people on the planet become less poor (which we should certainly hope for) they’ll want to eat somewhat more meat. So you’re still left with the same basic dilemma.

Roberts has some ideas for more realistic paths to sustainability. But it’s worth highlighting just one insight, namely that one problem with the current organic paradigm is that it’s an all-or-nothing proposition. No-till farming, which Roberts explores, has some substantial environmental benefits over conventional methods including a substantial reduction in the use of artificial herbicides. But because it doesn’t reduce herbicide use to zero it doesn’t qualify as “organic.” Consequently, the current market set-up doesn’t provide any real reward from switching from a less-sustainable to a more-sustainable model.

That kind of focus on all-or-nothing issues reflects organic farming’s origins in quasi-mystical movements and it suits the business model of the “Big Organic” enterprises that have sprung up in recent years. But sound public policy is usually all about impacts at the margin. Doubling the proportion of the U.S. food supply that comes from organic sources would still leave us with 94 percent coming from conventional farms. You would accomplish much more by policies that produce a mild reduction in the ecological footprint of the entire conventional center.

Climate Progress

Shame on Richard Lindzen, MIT’s uber-hypocritical anti-scientific scientist

As an alum, I was happily surprised when a few weeks ago a senior M.I.T. professor directed me to major study by a dozen leading experts associated with their Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change that made clear M.I.T. had joined the climate realists.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has just doubled its previous (2003) projection of global warming by 2100 to 5.1°C. Their median projection for the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2095 is a jaw-dropping 866 ppm. Human civilization as we know it could not survive such warming, such concentrations (see likely impacts here).

But there is one MIT professor who has remained blind to the remarkable strengthening of our understanding of climate science in the past 2 years — Richard Lindzen. A general debunking of Lindzen’s popular disinformation tracts can be found on RealClimate here.

At the Heartland conference of climate-change deniers that began Sunday in New York, however, Lindzen went from denial to defamation as he smeared the reputation of one of the greatest living climate scientists, Wallace Broecker.

Before discussing that indefensible and hypocritical smear, it is worth noting that the Heartland conference is so extreme that even “moderate” deniers, like John Christy won’t go, as Andy Revkin reports:

John R. Christy … said he had skipped both Heartland conferences to avoid the potential for “guilt by association.”

Now when a guy who has been as wrong for as long as Christy has (see here) is afraid his reputation will be harmed by attending your conference, you are way, way out there!

And indeed, Lindzen chose to abandon what little is left of his professional reputation, as the astonishing report on the conference from Examiner.com makes clear:

Read more

Yglesias

Today in Chas Freeman Blogging

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Another good post from James Fallows on the Chas Freeman issue. A taste:

The two people whose views I quote below have absolutely unquestionable standing to speak on this subject. One is Sidney Rittenberg, who first went to China with the US Army in 1945 and end up spending 35 years there, 16 of them in solitary confinement for alleged espionage and disloyalty to the Mao regime. The other is Jerome A. Cohen, of NYU Law School and Paul Weiss, who has been tireless in his efforts for legal reform in China and was instrumental in freeing John Downey, who had been held in Chinese prison for two decades after the Korean War.

Both of them strongly support the expansion of individual liberties and civil society in China. Both of them strongly support Chas Freeman and his candidacy for his now-disupted job.

You’ll have to click the link to read the actual letters. Then see Josh Marshall on this. Josh has personal beef with Freeman over an unrelated issue that led Freeman to tag him as a purveyor of “slime journalism.” But also says that “the whole effort strikes me as little more than a thuggish effort to keep the already too-constricted terms of debate over the Middle East and Israel/Palestine locked down and largely one-sided.” You can see Andrew Sullivan’s timeline for more on this.

Meanwhile, Ezra Klein observes that whether or not Freeman gets the job in the end, the message has been sent:

But for Freeman’s detractors, a loss might still be a win. As Sullivan and others have documented, the controversy over Freeman is fundamentally a question of his views on Israel. Barring a bad report from the inspector general, Chas Freeman will survive and serve. But only because his appointment doesn’t require Senate confirmation. Few, however, will want to follow where he led. Freeman’s career will likely top out at Director of the NIC. That’s not a bad summit by any means. But for ambitious foreign policy thinkers who might one day aspire to serve in a confirmed capacity, the lesson is clear: Israel is off-limits. And so, paradoxically, the freethinking Freeman’s appointment might do quite a bit to silence foreign policy dissenters who want to succeed in Washington.

Still, I would say that would-be government officials have already internalized the lesson that drawing outside the lines on the Arab-Israeli conflict is not the way to get jobs. But the Obama administration has already put in place quite a few officials—James Jones, Samantha Power, George Mitchell—who didn’t exactly come with the kosher stamp of approval.

Politics

Beck: Stem-cell research will lead directly to the search for a new ‘master race.’

On his radio show today, conservative talker Glenn Beck commented on President Obama overturning the ban on federally funded stem-cell research. Beck argued that funding stem-cell research would lead directly to a search for a new “master race,” the revival of Eugenics, and the reincarnation of the Nazi’s “final solution.” Believing that Obama’s success as president would hasten the arrival of his conspiracy theory, Beck then declared, “I hope Barack Obama fails”:

BECK: So here you have Barack Obama going in and spending the money on embryonic stem cell research, and then some, fundamentally changing – remember, those great progressive doctors are the ones who brought us Eugenics. It was the progressive movement and it science. Let’s put science truly in her place. If evolution is right, why don’t we just help out evolution? That was the idea. And sane people agreed with it!

And it was from America. Progressive movement in America. Eugenics. In case you don’t know what Eugenics led us to: the Final Solution. A master race! A perfect person. …. The stuff that we are facing is absolutely frightening. So I guess I have to put my name on yes, I hope Barack Obama fails. But I just want his policies to fail; I want America to wake up.

Listen here:

In reality, of course, stem-cell research has nothing to do with the search for a “master race.” Rather, as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) explained this morning, “Obama’s executive order is a huge win for the millions of people who suffer from spinal cord injuries, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, Multiple Sclerosis and many other illnesses.”

Yglesias

The Case of Miles Harrison

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Gene Weingarten reports for the Washington Post on the terrifying and horrible case of Miles Harrison:

The charge in the courtroom was manslaughter, brought by the Commonwealth of Virginia. No significant facts were in dispute. Miles Harrison, 49, was an amiable person, a diligent businessman and a doting, conscientious father until the day last summer — beset by problems at work, making call after call on his cellphone — he forgot to drop his son, Chase, at day care. The toddler slowly sweltered to death, strapped into a car seat for nearly nine hours in an office parking lot in Herndon in the blistering heat of July.

It was an inexplicable, inexcusable mistake, but was it a crime? That was the question for a judge to decide.

I’m not sure this is the only perspective with which to look at a case like this, but rather than asking if it “was” a crime, one might ask what one thinks could be accomplished by hitting Harrison with criminal sanctions. Do we fear that there’ll be an upswing in this sort of thing if people think they can get away with accidentally killing their children? That doesn’t seem right to me. If the issue is a belief that it’s not really an accident, that’s one thing. But if not, then I don’t see how jail time would make a horrible situation any less horrible.

Health

Government Insured Republicans Reject So-Called ‘Government-Run’ Health Care

In the lead up to last week’s White House Health Care Summit, Republicans publicly repudiated President Obama’s proposal to give Americans the choice of enrolling a new a public health plan.

Despite a show of bipartisanship and openness for debate, the GOP sent a letter to Obama, effectively taking this option off the table. At the summit, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the ranking member of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, warned Obama that “there’s a lot of us that feel that the public option that the government is an unfair competitor.”

Over the weekend, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) — the chairman of the Republican party’s health care task force– doubled down on this opposition and dedicated the Republican radio address to opposing so-called “government run programs”:

Some people are spending a lot of time talking about how to spend more of your money on bigger government run programs…That’s why real competition is the key – it encourages innovation so that the health care treatments and services available to you are the ones that you need and you want. Republicans are committed to common-sense solutions that promote competition and innovation…Republicans will lead the effort to make health care work for Americans.

Watch it:

If Republicans plan to “lead the effort” on health care reform, their current approach leaves much to the imagination. In fact, Blunt’s so-called health care task force is concerned about messaging, not policy; rhetorical flourishes, instead of real workable solutions and compromise.

But on a larger scale, government workers complaining about government-sponsored health care is a bit like governors complaining about the stimulus, but then accepting the funds. If Republicans are really concerned about subpar care or rationing of treatments, then they should publicly abandon their government sponsored insurance (which they receive through The Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB) Program) and try their luck in the individual health insurance market. Until that exodus occurs, the Republican message sounds like hypocritical ideological stubbornness.

The FEHB, it should be noted, does not include a public option and is not a model for lowering health care costs. As Jacob Hacker points out, “the growth rate for FEHBP is virtually identical to that for private health insurance…This suggests that simply replicating FEHBP on a broader scale—without public plan choice—would be unlikely to provide the long-term cost restraint essential for successful reform.”

Government involvement in health care is certainly an uphill climb for the GOP. Most Americans support government involvement in health care and a large majority support a public option. After all, injecting competition into the health insurance market (in the form of a public plan) is a uniquely “American solution” — the very thing conservatives seem to be asking for.

Update

Over at Health Beat, Maggie Mahar provides a thorough debunk of Blunt’s address.

Media

Rove: Bush Was Not One Of The Three Officials Who ‘Unanimously’ Decided To Bail Out Banks

On Fox News this afternoon, Karl Rove insisted that “this crew” in the White House has caused the collapse of the market, faulting the Obama administration for the economic crisis. He blamed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in particular, saying Geithner could not point fingers at the previous administration because he was one of the three people who made the decision to bail out the banks in the first place, with last fall’s TARP.

In fact, Rove declared that only three people made the decision about the bank bailout — and none of them were then-President Bush:

Look, Geithner was sitting in the room, last year. Three people made the decision about the bank rescue package: Geithner, Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson, the Treasury Secretary.

Rove added that those three “unanimously made those decisions about the bank rescue.” Apparently they simply informed then-President Bush of their decision to give $700 billion to banks after the fact. Watch it:

Ironically, during the same interview, Rove declared that the Obama administration has “got to start accepting responsibility for the outcome of their decisions” — seconds before suggesting that Bush didn’t even play a role in one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency.

Apparently Bush wasn’t really “the decider” after all.

Yglesias

Cutting Earmarks Doesn’t Save Money

earmarkpig.GIF

I think it’s reasonable well-understood at this point among non-stupid, non-dishonest people that “earmarks” are a minor aspect of the budget and the bloviating about them is just hot air not serious budget policy. Less well-understood is Stan Collender’s point that earmark reform would literally save no money whatsoever:

Lost in all of the debate (and the reporting about the debate) on the earmarks in the omnibus 2009 appropriations bill the Senate is still working to adopt is the basic fact that cutting earmarks doesn’t save any money.

This is not open for discussion. An earmark simply is a congressional decision to allocate part of appropriation for a particular purpose. Eliminating the allocation doesn’t reduce the appropriation, it simply leaves the allocation decision to a federal department or agency rather than to Congress.

A lot of people don’t understand this because the mechanics of the federal budget process are fairly obscure. But guess who really ought to understand the federal budget process? Members of congress! And especially those members of congress who portray themselves as incredibly concerned with the need for federal budget reform. I’m looking at you John McCain!

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