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Health

Reid To McConnell On Health Care: ‘This Issue Is Too Important To Be Manipulated For Political Purposes’

After initially obstructing Democratic efforts to compromise on major health care reform legislation, Republicans will now have until October 15th to agree to a bipartisan compromise.

Today on a conference call with reporters, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) reiterated that the Democratic leadership wants 70 to 75 votes in Senate for health reform. Sens. “Baucus and Kennedy have no desire to actually have to use reconciliation whatsoever… we all understand if it gets down to that kind of acrimonious debate, the country will lose… if this breaks down we don’t want to lose the opportunity to pass health reform,” Dodd said.

In fact, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has also penned a letter to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) extending Republicans “a seat…at the table”:

In order for this bipartisan process to take root, Republicans must demonstrate a sincere interest in legislating. Rather than just saying no, you must be willing to offer concrete and constructive proposals. We cannot afford more of the obstructionist tactics that have denied or delayed Congress’ efforts to address so many of the critical challenges facing the nation...I hope your conference will recognize that this issue is too important to be manipulated for political purposes. This is a seat for you at the table; we hope you take it.

So far, Republicans have shown only limited willingness to cooperate on the issue. McConnell, for instance, had penned a letter to Obama in the lead up to the White House Health Forum effectively taking the public health plan off of the table and Republicans have promised to release a non-starter alternative to Obama’s proposal: Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) widely discredited approach to reforming the health system.

As Families USA President Ron Pollack explained during an earlier interview with ThinkProgress, “the first attempt will be made to try to do this in a bipartisan fashion. But it takes two to tango and we saw with the economic recovery legislation, we didn’t have two folks tangoing. You had one doing a tango and the other doing a break dance and so that didn’t quite work.” Now, both parties can try and dance to this.

Security

Why Expedite Cheney’s Request For Memos?

Our guest blogger is Micah Zenko, Fellow in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.

CheneyIn an interview with Fox News last week, former Vice President Dick Cheney announced that he had “formally asked the CIA to take steps to declassify those memos,” which reportedly demonstrate the “success” that enhanced interrogations had in compelling high-value Al Qaeda operatives to provide intelligence that helped to protect the United States from terrorist attacks. Shortly thereafter, an unnamed senior U.S. intelligence official told Politico.com that “The Agency has received no such request from the former Vice President.” This led to a further revelation from Cheney’s daughter Liz that the former Vice President had actually requested the CIA memos from the National Archives. At some point last Tuesday, the National Archives finally forwarded the request to the Agency, where it probably should have arrived in the first place.

Yesterday, on Meet the Press, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs noted that Cheney’s request is “in the very same process that if somebody else determined that a memo should be declassified…It’s a process that takes about three weeks. “ As anyone who has ever made a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for CIA documents knows, this is an unprecedented time-frame, especially for memos that contain such highly sensitive raw intelligence. All of which raises questions about how and why the Obama administration is expediting the former Vice President’s request at this time.

In the experience of this analyst, CIA FOIA requests take anywhere from six to eighteen months to receive a formal ruling of whether the document can be declassified (often in redacted form), or whether it should be exempted on national security grounds.

The three weeks that Robert Gibbs described refers to the language in the FOIA law, which requires federal agencies to “determine within twenty days (excepting Saturdays, Sundays, and legal public holidays) after the receipt of any such request whether to comply with such request and shall immediately notify the person making such request of such determination and the reasons therefor (sic).” What this means in practice, is that a month after filing a CIA FOIA request, which can only be done via snail-mail or fax, you receive a letter that provides a case number and notification that your request is under review. Over the following months, you can call one of two CIA Public Liaison officers, who are friendly and responsive to voice mails, at 703-613-1287 in an effort to expedite the process, but they generally will only re-remind you that your request remains “under review.”

It is not clear under what authority former Vice President Cheney’s FOIA request for the CIA memos has been awarded fast-track preference by the Obama administration. Executive Order 12958 (as amended in 2003), allows for “Access by Historical Researchers and Former Presidential Appointees” for individuals who have “previously have occupied policy-making positions to which they were appointed by the President.” While this might apply to providing an open channel for Cheney to reference classified information as he writes his memoirs, it should not speed up what is the normal declassification process.

There should be greater transparency over the CIA’s detention and interrogation programs that were created after 9/11. The CIA memos requested by Cheney should eventually be declassified in the normal time-frame as part of that process. They should not, however, be rapidly declassified to score points on one side of the ongoing and intense political debates about the legality and effectiveness of the CIA programs.

Climate Progress

House Energy panel delays markup of energy and climate bill — in part to accommodate Republicans begging for more hearings

In general, I have argued for going a tad slower on the whole process of writing and voting on comprehensive energy and climate legislation.  Now E&E Daily (subs. req’d) reports:

Democratic leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee have postponed plans for a markup this week of a sweeping energy and global warming bill to allow more time for interparty negotiations and also conceding to a GOP demand for more hearings.

Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and Energy and Environment Subcommittee Chairman Ed Markey (D-Mass.) said in a letter today to panel members that they would wait at least until next week before beginning the subcommittee markup on their proposed legislation.

In fact, the Dems didn’t have much choice, thanks to some little known parliamentary rules invoked by conservatives:

Read more

Politics

Gallup: Majority support investigation of Bush administration’s interrogation tactics.

In a new poll out today, Gallup found that a slim majority of Americans — 51 percent — support “a government investigation into harsh interrogation techniques of terrorist suspects.” Forty-two percent said they were opposed to such investigations:

gallupinvest.gif

Greg Sargent notes that the poll also found that 55 percent believe in retrospect that the use of the interrogation techniques was justified. According to Sargent, this suggests “that the electorate doesn’t generally think a government probe would necessarily amount to retribution or revenge, as so many pundits keep saying, and merely view it as a necessary accounting of what actually happened.”

Yglesias

Henderson County GOP Offering Implausible Spin on Behalf of Richard Burr

burr-emerging-1

Richard Burr continues to be dogged by complaints about his irresponsible rhetoric on bank deposits, and his allies, such as Richard Danos, chairman of the Henderson County Republican Party, continue to dissemble about what he said:

The Times-News reported that as part of an economic talk to the County Chamber of Commerce, Burr told of urging his wife to withdraw some cash from their ATM during the banking crisis — a story he has repeated dozens of times. Many Americans took out some extra cash as a common sense precaution during that period.

Look. People withdraw cash from ATMs all the time. That would be a ridiculous anecdote to tell. Here’s what he actually said:

“On Friday night, I called my wife and I said, ‘Brooke, I am not coming home this weekend. I will call you on Monday. Tonight, I want you to go to the ATM machine, and I want you to draw out everything it will let you take,” Burr said, according to the Hendersonville Times-News. “And I want you to tomorrow, and I want you to go Sunday.’ I was convinced on Friday night that if you put a plastic card in an ATM machine the last thing you were going to get was cash.

This is Burr, implying to his audience, that their bank deposits are not safe. In fact, bank deposits are insured by the FDIC. This is supposed to give people confidence that they need to have these kind of fears, and thus prevent bank runs. And with few bank runs, there’s little need for the FDIC to actually step in. When Burr implies that the deposits are not safe, he’s encouraging runs on banks. That won’t lead to anyone losing their deposits—whether or not Burr understands it, the deposits are insured—but it will lead to losses for taxpayers who need to pay out insurance claims, and it will lead to bank failures and job losses.

This isn’t a huge deal, in the scheme of things, but it was an irresponsible thing to say. Burr and his friends should just take responsibility and move on.

Yglesias

Lemon Socialism

ph2009042700874-1

For those keeping score at home, unlike a modest tax increase on a tiny number of people, this really would be socialism:

The U.S. Treasury would own at least a 50 percent stake in General Motors under a plan the company released today to avoid bankruptcy. [...] Under the outlines announced yesterday, the federal government would take an equity stake of at least 50 percent, the United Auto Workers would take as much as 39 percent, the company’s bondholders would get 10 percent and the existing shareholders 1 percent.

I’m pretty queasy about this idea. Liquidating General Motors amidst a huge recession would be a disaster. But at the same time, a state-owned GM is going to be tricky. There are lots of non-GM car plants in the United States. And the public interest—in, for example, high-speed rail and walkable cities and mass transit and reduced climate emissions—by no means identical to the interests of a large automaker.

Economy

Coal CEO: ‘Clean Coal’ Is The Future, But ‘We Have Not Invested Any Dollars In The Technology, Per Se’

Yesterday, CBS’s 60 Minutes ran a segment about the coal industry, interviewing Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers. Duke is one of the largest electricity companies in the country, and it owns dozens of coal plants nationwide. Last month, the company announced plans for a new 800-megawatt coal-fired plant in North Carolina, and it plans to continue building coal plants.

CBS’s Scott Pelley asked Rogers how he feels about global warming given that his coal plants continue to billow approximately 112 million tons of greenhouse gases. “We need to go to work on it now,” Rogers said. “It is critical that we start to act in this country.” Rogers’ solution? “We have to find a way to clean [coal] and use it,” he insisted. Yet Rogers actual plans to fight global warming are essentially non-existent:

Q: How much has Duke Energy invested in carbon sequestration technology so far?

ROGERS: We have not invested any dollars in the technology, per se. We have spent a lot of time and money reviewing and analyzing the various technologies. … While we haven’t spent the money on sequestration technology, we spent the time and energy and we’re going to co-invest with the government when this technology evolves.

“Our goal line is to substantially to reduce our carbon footprint, to decarbonize our business by 2050,” Rogers said. Pelley observed that “not even the industry that warns of the end of our way of life is paying for it.” Watch it:

“Clean coal,” of course, is a myth. Moreover, the pace of Rogers’ plans for “decarbonizing” his plants is pathetically slow. “2050 is too late, we would have guaranteed disasters,” NASA scientist Jim Hansen told Pelley. “We are going to have to phase out emissions from coal in the next 20 years.” “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late,” said IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pauchauri.

So how is Big Coal investing its money? ACCCE – a group of 48 big coal and utility companies, including Duke — has a communications budget for 2009 of $40 million, higher than last year. In 2008, the group spent $10.5 million to lobby Congress and roughly 40 percent of ACCCE’s spending that year was on ads trumpeting “clean coal.” Joe Lucas, spokesman for ACCCE, said last month that he “doesn’t know” if coal fuels global warming. In the meantime, Rogers is busy lobbying against President Obama’s green economy plan, which actually would spur carbon sequestration by pricing pollution.

“We know clean coal is not around the corner,” former senator John Warner, who represented the coal-producing state Virginia, told Congress last week. Indeed.

Economy

Washington Post Uses Front Page To Fearmonger Against Obama’s Tax Policy

wapologoToday, the Washington Post ran an article entitled “Small Businesses Brace for Tax Battle: Under Obama Plan, Some Entrepreneurs’ Bills Would Soar.” The article tells the story of Gail Johnson, who runs a chain of pre-schools and after-school programs and is supposedly going to be so hard-hit by President Barack Obama’s proposed tax increases that she will “consider scaling back operations.”

The Post proceeds to quote Bruce Josten of the Chamber of Commerce and Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), who both claimed that Obama’s tax increases are going to cripple business. But in a story with 29 paragraphs — which appeared on the front page of the paper, above the fold — only one paragraph was dedicated to pointing out that the overwhelming majority of small business owners will see their taxes reduced under Obama’s plan. As Dean Baker wrote:

The piece centers on an extremely atypical small business owner who claims that her taxes would increase by more than 19 percent under President Obama’s tax proposals. This person’s situation would describe that of less than 1 percent of all small business owners so it is difficult to understand why such a person would be prominently featured in an article on President Obama’s tax plans.

The Post also dismisses its own lone mention of how few businesses will be affected by stating “whatever the figure, Republicans argue that those who fall into the upper brackets tend to be firms with the greatest capacity for job creation.” The Post fails to note that Republicans who argue this are incorrect.

Here’s the real story. Obama has proposed raising the tax rate on the top two income tax brackets back to the level at which they were under President Clinton, and as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities pointed out, “only 1.9 percent of filers with any small-business income are projected to face either of the top two income tax rates in 2009.” In fact, of people who file most of their income from their own business, “more than half have income below $30,000 and 80 percent make less than $100,000.”

Meanwhile, in a typical year the businesswoman portrayed in the article, along with her husband, makes more than half a million dollars. This places them in the 0.7 percent of households that file in the top two income tax brackets. While no one likes paying higher taxes, this is not a household that is barely scraping by, assuming that the half million is in net income (since that, and not business revenue, is what gets taxed).

So as Matthew Yglesias pointed out, “any small businessman who’s earning a middle class income isn’t paying in the top two brackets, just as any salaried employee who’s earning a middle class income isn’t paying in the top two brackets.” Someone should remind the Washington Post of that fact.

Update

Brad DeLong has more.

Yglesias

Historical Variation in Age at First Marriage

Read Jessica Valenti on media’s latest effort to get women to panic about their marriage prospects. Let me just say that the entire trend toward delayed marriage needs to be put in better context than this:

The average age of American men marrying for the first time is now 28. That’s up five full years since 1970 and the oldest average since the Census Bureau started keeping track. If men weren’t pulling women along with them on this upward swing, I wouldn’t be complaining. But women are now taking that first plunge into matrimony at an older age as well. The age gap between spouses is narrowing: Marrying men and women were separated by an average of more than four years in 1890 and about 2.5 years in 1960. Now that figure stands at less than two years. I used to think that only young men — and a minority at that — lamented marriage as the death of youth, freedom and their ability to do as they pleased. Now this idea is attracting women, too.

These trends are very real. But people ought to understand that there’s a huge amount of variation from time to time and place to place in this. It’s just a kind of knee-jerk prejudice to assume that conditions prevailing in 1960 in the United States are “normal” and that today’s situation is abnormal.

Here, for example, is a table from Hamano Kiyoshi’s “Marriage Patterns and the Demographic System of Late Tokugawa Japan”

tokugawa

In the sai system, a baby is born at age one and reaches age two a year later. In other words, in 19th century Shibuki the average age at first marriage for men was 29.5 years (higher than in the contemporary US) and for women was 23.7 (lower than in the contemporary US) and the gap was higher than the Census Bureau has ever recorded for the US. In Wrighton & Levine’s Poverty and Piety in an English Village they write “The relative precocity of marriage in Terling becomes more evident when it is compared with another village—Shepshed, Leceicerstershire. In that midland community during the 17th century, the mean age at first marriage was 29.4 for men and 28.1 for their brides.”

Nowadays, the average age at first marriage for women is substantially higher in Scandinavia, Spain, and France than in the United States.

Social customs vary, in other words, and they’ve always varied over time and from place to place. People have a large bias toward the status quo, so if customs today are different from customs a generation ago that seems alarming. But “traditional” age at first marriage only arose in the west in the 19th century. For about two hundred years before that, it was falling, and the current situation in the United States resembles what Gregory Clark describes in 17th century England.

Update

CORRECTION: Woops! Stupid math error on my part in converting the Japanese-style ages into American-style ages. I added a year when I should have subtracted one.

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