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Yglesias

Coming to Terms With the Welfare State

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I was thinking some more about yesterday’s post on the UK Conservative Party’s paen to government-run health care, and it brought to mind an interesting general distinction. If you look at the American conservative movement, the Republican Party, and politics in the United States of America it’s clear that there are vast swathes of “big government” that nobody is going to espouse dismantling. For all the post hoc whining about “bailouts,” nobody who wants to wield power is going to dismantle the FDIC. Nor is anyone talking about eliminating Medicare or establishing a real free market in health care where poor people die of easily treatable ailments. Even at the height of his powers in 2005, Bush didn’t propose eliminating food stamps.

And in this, the American right basically resembles the British right. Some things just aren’t practical or politically feasible, so they’re off the table. But one key difference is that you almost never see anyone on the American right actively affirm belief in even a bare-bones welfare state or basic regulation. Conservative governance doesn’t evince an actual desire to fully dismantle this stuff. But when conservatives get abstract, or out of power, you get a lot of stuff from Glenn Beck and Jonah Goldberg and some of the Cato people and so forth all about The Road to Serfdom or the totalitarian implications of the school lunch program.

So it was good to read this in David Frum’s review of Mark Levin’s new book:

Some conservatives say, “No more bailouts.” That’s a fine principle, up to a point. Only – if it had been applied in the fall of 2008, the world economy would very probably have tumbled into a true depression. And it has to be recognized too (as Milton Friedman no less acknowledged in his lifetime) that it is to some degree the existence of those maligned government programs that protects modern America from economic depressions like those of 1929-1941 (or 1919-21, or 1893-96, or 1857, or 1837). The stock market may crash, factories may close – but Social Security checks continue to flow to seniors, doctors collect their fees from Medicare, faculty at state universities earn wages, and depositors at failed banks can still withdraw their funds from cash machines. Conservatives “know” this, but we tend not to emphasize it. Yet it too is part of the story of our times, and as we regroup for the political struggles of the next era, we ought to keep this knowledge somewhere in mind.

Some recognition of this point would hardly end political debate in the United States, any more than the basic abandonment of central planning as a guiding economic principle of the mainstream left has ended it. But it would, I think, give us a more constructive politics that was more centered around real controversies about real issues rather than vague assertions about “government” and tax proposals that are totally detached from reality.

Media

The Transformation of Roger Cohen

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The emergence of The New York Times’ Roger Cohen as a vital progressive Jewish voice on issues related to Israel has been something that’s very much surprised me over the past year. This interesting article in New York Jewish Week helpsput it into some context:

“Something did break in me at the time of the Gaza attack” last winter, he said. “I couldn’t see the strategy behind” Israel’s military moves, “and I was appalled at the extent of the loss of life” among Gazans. [...] “The great operative word” among Palestinians now is “humiliation,” Cohen said. “Whether or not it’s desired, that’s the effect. And it’s not good for the Palestinians, the Israelis or the Jewish soul.” [...] “No degree of suffering gives you an eternal passport to ride roughshod over another people,” he said.

For me, I think the equivalent moment came during the attack on Lebanon in 2006, but the impulse is similar.

Economy

Rising Oil Prices Threaten Billions In Worldwide Stimulus

oilpriceYesterday, USA Today laid out the current depressing rise in the price of oil:

Pump prices are following the rise in crude oil, which set an 8-month high Thursday on a falling dollar and brighter economic outlook. Gas prices are not expected to approach last summer’s wallet-busting $4 per gallon, but they could eat into consumer spending just as the recession is showing signs of easing. The nationwide price for a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $2.63 Thursday, up 58 cents since the end of April and $1.01 since pump prices bottomed at about $1.62 at the end of last year.

The real problem here is that “eat into consumer spending” bit, as rising gas prices threaten to stymie some of the spending that the stimulus bill sought to promote. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, told the Wall Street Journal just how much oil prices are threatening spending worldwide:

Assessing the relief from last year’s record $100 average U.S. oil price, Mr. Birol estimates that an average $40 a barrel oil price in 2009 — below what most analysts expect — would pad consumer wallets in industrialized nations like the U.S. to the tune of almost $600 billion. But an average price of $70 a barrel, roughly the current price level, cuts the stimulus effect down to just $290 billion.

Robert J. Shiller, an economist at Yale, figured that the price hikes “could effectively offset the new $400 to $800 payroll tax cut most employees are receiving this year” due to the Obama administration’s stimulus package.

As Ryan Avent put it, “I don’t really know how else to say this, but oil prices are about to kill our chances at recovery dead. That’s all there is to it.” As possible solutions to use in the limited time before higher prices hit, he advocated trying to talk OPEC into more production, opening up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and providing “immediate funding to transit systems nationwide to increase service.”

In the grander scheme of things, it’s really absurd that the U.S. allows rising oil prices to wallop U.S. consumers every single summer. And via Matt Yglesias, we have Bradford Plumer suggesting that the U.S. “implement some sort of variable oil tax that would keep the domestic price of oil more or less stable: When world oil prices rise, the tax decreases; when oil prices plunge, the tax increases.” “That would help create a predictable price signal to encourage conservation and alternatives to oil, and raise revenue for energy projects (not to mention send fewer dollars overseas),” wrote Plumer.

Yglesias

The Economics of HDMI Cables

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When you get a Blu-Ray player or an HDTV receiver, if you want to get maximum performance you need to hook it up to your television using an HDMI cable. Meanwhile, HDMI cables come in a huge assortment of prices. Here’s a short one for $3.49 whereas Radio Shack is selling a longer Monster brand cable for over $120. Fortunately for me, my high school physics teachers one day went on an extended tirade about the evils of Monster cables and illustrated the non-superiority between the expensive and cheap version of AV cables.

Alex Tabarrok’s puzzled by the phenomenon:

The second puzzle is, Why don’t any stores stock cheap HDMI cable? I knew cables were a ripoff yet I could not find reasonably priced cables at Best Buy, Radio Shack, Target or even Wal-Mart. Ordinarily, we would expect competition to push prices down but in this case it seem as if the mere existence of Monster is anchoring high prices everywhere but online.

My best guess is that this is an unusually strong version of the hidden fee model of Laibson and Gabaix. In that model, firms overprice one aspect of service–such as a hotel charging exorbitant rates for telephone service–as an idiot tax. Crucially, the idiot tax is matched by an IQ-subsidy; the price of the hotel room is lower than it would be without the idiot tax–so the idiots don’t know to shop elsewhere and the high-IQ types are, in fact, drawn to stores with an idiot tax. Thus, buy your blu-ray player at places such as Best Buy which sell a lot of expensive cable as well as massively overpriced extended warranties.

I think that’s probably an unduly pejorative terminology. He says “ordinarily, we would expect competition to push prices down.” But what that really means is “assuming perfect information we would expect competition to push prices down.” And it’s pretty clear that insofar as accurate information about the relative quality and available price points of HDMI cables spreads, competition will push prices down. But not surprisingly, most people don’t seem to actually have much information about this. So the tax on low-information consumers works. But I don’t think I want to call them “idiots” just for not knowing about this. It happens to be the case that I’m a pretty informed consumer about electronics, but I think it stands to reason that there’s some other field of purchasing endeavor in which I’m regularly getting hosed.

The other really egregious example of this is the prices Apple charges for RAM. Identical RAM upgrades can be purchased online for substantially less and installed in the comfort of your own home.

Security

Lieberman Says He’s ‘Pleasantly Encouraged’ By Obama, But Disagrees With His Middle East And Health Care Agenda

In an interview with Bloomberg’s Al Hunt, Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) — who campaigned hard against President Obama during the 2008 election and supported his Republican challenger John McCain — said that he’s impressed with how Obama is handling the job.

“Put me down now as pleasantly encouraged by the first five months,” Lieberman said. “He has been strong, particularly on foreign policy. I think President Obama is off to a very, very good start in a very difficult time in our nation’s history.” Lieberman lauded Obama’s recent Cairo speech to the Muslim world, saying it was a “significant step overall. … My guess is he opened some minds in the Muslim world.”

Despite the laudatory comments of Obama’s foreign policy vision, Lieberman offered criticism of the president’s efforts to urge Israel to stop its settlement activities. “I thought the focus on the President’s direct call in that speech in Cairo for the Israelis to freeze all settlement activity — including the ‘natural growth‘ of settlements that everybody agrees are no longer settlements — …that was risky in the sense that it may lead listeners to believe that the main reason there is not an Arab-Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is the Israeli settlement policy,” he said:

HUNT: Do you disagree then with the President and Secretary Clinton that there ought to be a freeze — no growth in those settlements now?

LIEBERMAN: I do. I disagree.

Watch it:

On Obama’s domestic agenda, Lieberman announced his opposition to a public health insurance option. “I don’t favor a public option, and I don’t favor a public option because I think there’s plenty of competition in the private insurance market,” he argued. (He’s wrong.) Lieberman warned that political pressure in favor of the public option may thwart efforts at achieving health care reform. “Let’s get something done instead of having a debate,” he said.

Separately, Lieberman said he “could support” the Waxman-Markey clean energy legislation in the House. “It’s a great act of legislative leadership,” he added, saying the critical issue is convincing “people from states that get a lot of their electricity from coal-burning power plants that we can make this change without skyrocketing the cost of living and the cost of doing business.”

Update

Also, in an interview with NPR, Lieberman said Obama should consider keeping the Guantanamo Bay detention center open.

Climate Progress

Dude, Where’s my Carbon Permit?

http://www.thedreamzone.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/dude_wheres_my_car.jpgI’d be interested in readers’ opinion of this silly segment from NPR’s Morning Edition, “Dude, Where’s My Cap-And-Trade Primer?

It’s funny, but the analogy makes little sense, and the whole thing is not terribly productive, I think.  I much prefer my musical chairs analogy from this NPR interview last month :)

Anti-cap-and-traders, feel free to do your thing, too!  That’s what weekend posts are for, no?

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