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Yglesias

The Copenhagen Suburbs

Fingerpaln2007

Was out in the suburbs of Copenhagen today for a bit, and they look, well, a lot like American suburbs except with smaller-than-average houses. But if you go visit an American suburb with smaller-than-average houses—usually an older one—then you’ll very much have the right idea. What was quite different, however, was the transportation from the suburbs into the central city. Copenhagen’s suburbs are organized around the “finger plan” illustrated in the map on the right. Each finger is, as you would do in the United States, built around an arterial road. But the roads have fewer lanes than an American arterial would have. But running alongside them (or at least running alongside the one our bus was driving on) are very nice, very wide bike paths. And roughly parallel to the roadways are the S-Tog commuter rail lines.

Consequently, there are fewer people driving on the road than you would have in the US and there are more people biking and taking the train.

It’s worth noting that this sort of thing leaves overall automobile congestion neither better nor worse than an alternative strategy of fewer options and wider roads would. Insofar as you build road capacity, drivers will fill that capacity up. You get a choice of what level of automobile traffic you want to see the congestion at. But if you actually want uncrowded rush hour roads then you have basically only two choices. One is that you can build “road to nowhere” type projects where the economic rationale for infrastructure development is so poor that people don’t really want to drive on your shiny new highway. The other is that you can do congestion-pricing. But absent congestion-pricing, even the really admirable provision of alternative modes has limited impact. When valuable goods are given away for free, you get shortages. Copenhagen is apparently considering following Stockholm and Oslo and implementing a congestion fee, but they haven’t done it yet.

Still the moral of the story is, I think, pretty clear. When you build infrastructure to facilitate commuting from suburbs to central cities, lots of people will avail themselves of the opportunity to move to the new suburbs. But how they actually get to the central city depends on what kind of infrastructure you build. If you build giant highways, they’ll drive. If you build smaller roads and also some trains, then some people will drive and some will take the train.

For the sake of comparison, note that Copenhagen is a pretty small city. There are 521,000 people in the city proper and 1.8 million in the metro area. That would make it the 30th largest metro area in the United States, slightly bigger than the Las Vegas MSA and slightly smaller than the Kansas City MSA. All told, about 129 million Americans live in metropolitan areas that are bigger than metro Copenhagen. About a third of Danish people live in Greater Copenhagen, whereas over 40 percent of Americans live in metro areas that are bigger than Greater Copenhagen.

Politics

Coburn Ignores His Own Committee, Says We ‘Don’t… Have The Answer Yet’ On Legality Of Obama’s ‘Czars’

For the past few months, many conservatives, led by Glenn Beck and Fox News, have been on a witch-hunt against the Obama administration’s so-called “czars,” accusing the White House of a power grab because they “are not subjected to congressional oversight” (despite the fact that a Fox News reporter noted that “there is no constitutional issue”).

The Senate Subcommittee on the Constitution, led by Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), held a hearing on these “czars” yesterday to determine their constitutionality. During an interview sometime after the hearing with Fox’s Greta Van Susteren, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) — the subcommittee’s Ranking Member — cited “18 different” czars that are “supposedly” of concern (meanwhile, Fox ran an on-screen graphic showing 30 supposed “czars”). But later in the interview, Coburn said that even after the hearing, the constitutional question on these “czars” is still open:

COBURN: So I think we don’t know, and I think the general, fair inquiry into what is going on without partisan sniping and to say what is really going on, is there any violation of the constitutional — any intended violation of the constitutional prerogatives of the legislative branch over advice and consent. And I don’t think we have the answer yet.

Watch it:

Coburn must not have been paying any attention to his own committee’s hearing. In fact, all five constitutional experts that testified during yesterday’s hearing concluded that these “czars” are legal:

Bradley Patterson, a senior analyst for the Brookings Institution who served on the White House staffs of Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford, said Obama clearly had the power to appoint such top-level aides under the historic prerogative of a president to hire White House personnel without benefit of the Senate’s advice and consent.

The president’s staff are personally responsible only to the president, and in the end he is the only ‘czar’ that is,” said Patterson in testimony before the Senate Judiciary Constitution Subcommittee. “And he is accountable to the American people.”

The special advisers’ “practical authority,” said University of Virginia Law professor John Harrison during the hearing, “is not legal authority, and as long as the distinction is rigorously maintained there will be no legal problem.”

Yglesias

Should I Be Excommunicated?

Isi Liebler offers a modest proposal in the Jerusalem Post:

The exploitation of Judge Goldstone’s Jewish background by our enemies intensifies our obligation to confront the enemy within – renegade Jews – including Israelis who stand at the vanguard of global efforts to demonize and delegitimize the Jewish state. Such odious Jews can be traced back to apostates during the Middle Ages who fabricated blood libels and vile distortions of Jewish religious practice for Christian anti-Semites to incite hatred which culminated in massacres. It was in response to these renegades that the herem (excommunication) was introduced.

Who are these modern-day blood libelers?

The rot has extended to the Diaspora, especially Europe and has also affected the United States. Highly vocal Jewish groups like the recently created J Street describe themselves as ‘Zionist’ but their prime objective is to pressure the US government to use “tough love” against Israel – a euphemism for demanding that the Jewish state make further unilateral concessions to neighbors pledged to its annihilation.

This kind of thing is, shall we say, disappointing to read.

Yglesias

Calorie Labeling in New York

So how’s New York City’s new law requiring chain restaurants to disclose nutritional information working out? Kevin Drum reports not so well:

The full study is here. Results are below. The researchers chose 14 fast-food outlets in low-income NYC neighborhoods (Newark was a control group) and interviewed a few hundred people both before and after the calorie labeling law went into effect, asking them if they’d noticed the calorie countsand if they’d changed their selection because of it. Then they got receipts from each respondent so they could find out what they’d actually purchased.

The results were pretty dismal: only about half the respondents even noticed the calorie counts and only 15% said they influenced their choice. But the receipts told an even more dismal story: overall, people actually purchased more calories after the law went into effect. The results aren’t statistically significant, though, so basically all the researchers can really say is that the law (so far) hasn’t had any effect. The only glimmer of good news is that among people under 35, respondents who noticed the labeling did seem to cut back a bit. No other subgroup showed any effect. So who knows? Young people probably respond to this kind of thing more quickly than older people, so maybe it’s just going to take some more time before all this stuff sinks in.

The fact that half the people don’t even notice the information is a bad sign. Obviously the point of having this stuff displayed is for people to read it. Especially given how few people so much as saw the signs, I don’t think it should be hugely surprising that the actual results here are less than stellar. When you think about it, a calorie labeling rule would probably have more impact among middle class or rich customers (yes, there are rich people eating fast food) than in a low-income neighborhood. If you introduce nutritional information to a population that’s acculturated to spending a lot of time worrying about losing weight, then you can see where the impact would come in. But if you’re talking about a low-income community where people are worrying about other things, then what difference is information going to make?

At any rate, more research required, says I.

Security

Barghouti: ‘There Is No Israeli Peace Partner’

barghoutiThe last few weeks have seen increasing Palestinian unrest in East Jerusalem in response to increasing Israeli settlement activity in Palestinian neighborhoods such as Silwan. The Palestinian Ma’an News Agency has an interview with imprisoned Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti — whose release has seemed to be imminent for years now — who says that “there is no Israeli peace partner“:

What is happening now is the height of settlement activity since 1967. In addition there is the Judaization of Jerusalem. First it was one home after another, now it’s one neighborhood after another. I am saying this loudly: anyone who thinks that peace is possible with the current Israeli government and was not possible with the previous governments, is being delusional.

Barghouti was a leading figure among the Fatah “Young Guard” who came of age in the occupied Palestinian territories in the late 70′s and 80′s, and took a leading role in the First Intifada. Increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress toward Palestinian statehood, in 2004 he was convicted by Israel of plotting terror attacks, and received several life sentences. He continued his activism in prison, and was one of the proponents of the 2006 “Prisoner’s Agreement” which sought conciliation between Palestinian factions. Despite his imprisonment, he won a top post in Fatah’s August elections.

Barghouti features prominently in Palestinian scholar and activist Sari Nusseibeh’s excellent memoir, Once Upon a Country. A former student of Nusseibeh’s at Bir Zeit University, Barghouti was active in campus government, and was committed both to non-violently resisting the Israeli occupation, and to building institutions which would support a modern Palestinian state. Like countless others of his generation, Barghouti spent his youth in and out of Israeli prisons for the crime of being a Palestinian nationalist. Nusseibeh effectively uses Barghouti’s increasingly militant stance, and his eventual embrace of violence in response to the continuing Israeli occupation and colonization, to track the growth of radicalism among young Palestinians.

Yesterday, as if to demonstrate Barghouti’s “no Israeli partner” argument, Peace Now’s Hagit Ofran wrote of a narrowly averted incident last week that she says “could have set the entire Middle East on fire.”

Netanyahu’s secret plan to visit a disputed tunnel in the East Jerusalem Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan, at the site known as Ir David (the City of David), was canceled, probably with some international intervention. Am I exaggerating the danger? No. Judging from past experience, provocations in Jerusalem never end well, and with the tensions in Jerusalem clearly rising in recent weeks, the potential for an explosion is very real.

First, some background about this secret plan is in order: Less than a week after he returned from Washington, after lowering everybody’s expectations and holding the coldest summit possible with Abbas and Obama, Netanyahu decided it was time to unite his quarreling staffers. He decided, apparently, that the best way to do this would be to organize a morale-building event in Jerusalem. Of all possible Jerusalem sites, he decided to take them on a tour of Ir David (the City of David), in the heart of Silwan. The plan was eventually revealed (it is hard to hide a plan that involves Israeli security forces cordoning off an entire section of the city), Silwan residents organized a protest, reporters started making inquiries and high-level policymakers in Washington and around the world were alerted. Reportedly, after several calls were apparently received from Washington, Netanyahu decided to cancel the tour.

As if the Obama administration didn’t have enough on its plate without having to expend valuable energy trying to get Netanyahu to behave. As Ofran notes, this sort of thing is in keeping with Netanyahu’s approach during his first term as prime minister: Provocative assertions of Israeli claims over disputed areas, and then using the resulting Palestinian outrage to justify further land grabs under the guise of “security.”

In continuing to provoke the Palestinians over Jerusalem, Netanyahu is playing with fire. Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Haram al-Sharif in September 2000, accompanied by hundreds of Israeli troops, sparked the riots that eventually exploded into the Second Intifada. One of the more pernicious myths in the U.S. debate over Israel and Palestine is that the Second Intifada was a planned and orchestrated by Yasir Arafat, rather than the result of genuine Palestinian frustration at the Israeli occupation and their own leaders’ inability to bring it to an end. Netanyahu’s intransigence during his first term was a major accelerant of that frustration. And now he seems set to play the role of arsonist again — with his American apologists again set to blame everything on the Palestinians as they cheer him on.

Politics

Chamber to Apple: You don’t understand our ’21st century approach to climate change.’

U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue, who last year called for further “scientific inquiry” into climate science because of a “cooling trend,” today rebuked Apple for leaving his organization. Apple — recognized as the most innovative company in the world — had criticized the Chamber for not having a “more progressive stance” on climate change, saying, “We strongly object to the Chamber’s comments opposing the EPA’s efforts to limit greenhouse gases.” In an angry letter, Donohue argued they did not understand the Chamber’s “21st century approach to climate change“:

I am sorry to learn of Apple’s resignation from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. It is unfortunate that your company didn’t take the time to understand the Chamber’s position on climate and forfeited the opportunity to advance a 21st century approach to climate change.

Of course, Apple is right. The Chamber of Commerce has a retrograde stance on global warming, opposes regulating greenhouse gas emissions, and has become an enemy of a clean-energy economy. In fact, in an unusual merger of interests, long-time Apple rival Microsoft has also distanced itself from the Chamber’s radical views.

Yglesias

Chris Christie’s Slide

I haven’t been following the New Jersey governor’s race very closely, but GOP contender Chris Christie’s recent slide in the polls certainly seems noteworthy. If incumbent John Corzine can somehow pull this out, that would be a real sign of what lousy shape the GOP is in politically.

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After all, when you’ve got an opposition incumbent as unpopular as Corzine running amidst an economic catastrophe, those are the races you’re supposed to win. If you can’t hold on to a lead in the polls that just goes to show that your party’s brand has become totally toxic in the state in question. Twenty years ago, New Jersey was a solidly conservative state. Mike Dukakis got 42 percent of the vote there, less than Obama got in South Carolina.

A related issue will be the Delaware Senate race. Republicans have persuaded Mike Castle, probably the least-conservative member of the House GOP caucus, to challenge Beau Biden for the seat. Castle is super-popular in Delaware and stands a good chance of winning. But obviously the Republican leadership as a whole is very much not popular in Delaware. Will Castle be able to persuade people that he won’t just be a lockstep obstructionist? If he wins, will he deliver on that promise and build a more robust moderate wing of his party’s caucus? Or will his popularity melt away in the cold light of a campaign?

Economy

CNBC Cites Glenn Beck As A New Economic Indicator

Last night, Fox News’ Glenn Beck spent a segment decrying the demise of the dollar — which he sees as imminent — and continually citing the threat of hyperinflation. Beck is so worried, in fact, that he advocated that the American people turn to gold as a sound investment against their government’s fiscal misdeeds.

Back in reality, the International Monetary Fund has actually warned that the United States “should have a second stimulus package ready just in case deflation becomes more evident,” while the percent change in the Consumer Price Index isn’t consistently above zero. But instead of relaying that information, CNBC’s Michelle Caruso-Cabrera — the same anchor who thinks tax havens prevent tyrannytook Beck’s tirade as the true indicator that the dollar’s six month slide in value is effectively over:

We’ve been talking about it ad nauseum here on CNBC, but, last night, Glenn Beck, the first eight minutes of his show — roll the tape — he spent decrying the demise of the dollar…Whenever we see any kind of economic trend permeate into the general media, doesn’t that almost tell you that it’s over?Glenn Beck, contrary indicator!

Watch it:

On one hand, good for CNBC for calling out hyperinflation fearmongering. But is citing Glenn Beck really the best way to make that point? After all, Beck may have an ulterior motive for pumping inflation fears. A Color of Change-driven boycott has lost Beck’s show 80 advertisers, but one of the few sticking with him is Rosland Capital, a company that specializes in selling gold. And as Ryan Witt pointed out, Beck never notes his conflict of interest:

So Beck essentially scares his audience into believing that hyperinflation and economic collapse is a near sure thing and then advises them to buy gold to protect themselves. All along Beck never mentions that a gold-buying company happens to be one of his few remaining sponsors. Beck also never interviews other economists who believe that we are nowhere near the economic conditions necessary to see hyperinflation. Finally Beck also never informs his audience of the risks involved in buying gold. Gold has seen its price skyrocket with the economic troubles of the last few years and there is a real danger that the price of gold may actually decrease if the economy improves in the coming years. Quite simply if one buys gold high right now they may be forced to sell low later.

Witt added that “usually Glenn Beck’s show simply misinforms his audience on political grounds which is dangerous enough. Now however Beck is actually guiding his followers down a financial path that may cost them dearly.” Incidentally, Beck himself is a spokesman for Goldline International, another company that specializes in selling gold.

Politics

National Review’s Derbyshire Says Women’s Suffrage Is ‘Bad For Conservatism’ And Therefore ‘Bad For Society’

John Derbyshire Last month, radio host Alan Colmes asked National Review columnist John Derbyshire about a chapter in his new book, called “The Case Against Women’s Suffrage.” After Colmes repeatedly pressed him about his views on womens’ suffrage, Derbyshire admitted that while he thinks women should be allowed to vote, we’d “probably” be a “better country” if they didn’t

Yesterday, radio host Thom Hartmann probed Derbyshire about the suffrage issue, and Derbyshire re-affirmed his view that “of course” he believes women should have the right to vote. But, he explained, they shouldn’t exercise that right because it is “bad for conservatism” and therefore “bad for society”:

HARTMANN: Do you believe that women should be allowed to vote?

DERBYSHIRE: Yeah, of course I do.

HARTMANN: Why then is the title called “The Case Against Female Suffrage”?

DERBYSHIRE: Because it is a case against female suffrage. [...]

HARTMANN: Did you not say to, for example, my colleague Alan Colmes that women should not be allowed to vote, that it would be a better country anyway if women were not allowed to vote?

DERBYSHIRE: Well, you know, my mentor Paul Buckley used to say, he who say a must say b. And the logic of that chapter, that chapter five in my book, rests on the proposition that women voting is bad for conservatism, and as a conservative, of course, I think that’s bad for society.

HARTMANN: So therefore if women were not allowed to vote it would be a better country in your opinion?

DERBYSHIRE: I think as a hypothetical I think that’s arguable, yeah. Yeah, I think so. Yeah.

Listen here:

While Derbyshire may think that gender equity is “bad for society,” the fact is that the countries that rank the highest in the World Economic Forum’s gender gap index — meaning they have the most gender equality — tend to also rank the highest on the U.N.’s Human Development Index. While it’s possible that women’s suffrage is “bad for conservatism,” maybe it’s conservatism — not women’s suffrage — that is “bad for society.”

Yglesias

Life is Sweet in Arlington

Obviously, it’s crucial that we not build anymore walkable, transit-oriented communities:

While many metropolitan markets around the country are enduring steep increases in vacancies in their office and retail sectors, the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington is an oasis of stability — and even of prosperity.

ved by five Metro subway stops within four miles, the corridor continues to attract new tenants, buyers and developers in the face of the deepest recession since the Great Depression. “It’s really an anomaly, considering the tough economy we’ve been in since December 2007,” said Sigrid G. Zialcita, managing research director for Cushman & Wakefield, a global real estate services firm. [...]

While Wilson Boulevard, a main artery, helps define the corridor, the key element in its success has been the subway. Planners had wanted to place it in the median of Interstate 66, on a more northerly alignment. But Arlington officials fought to have it run underground in the corridor to spur development.

It costs money to build a proper grade-separated heavy rail line with closely-packed stations. A lot of money. And consequently, it takes time for the benefits to be fully reaped. But the benefits are large. Nobody walks around London or Paris or New York and says “it’s too bad they wasted all this money building subways.” And nobody walks the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor and says it’s too bad they didn’t build park-and-ride stations and surface tracks in a highway median.

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