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Yglesias

Justice or Politesse

250px-Smedley_maid_illustration_1906

I think this Jay Nordlinger item illustrates a pretty profound ideological divide:

Wanted to share a note that made me smile — maybe it will you, too. A reader wrote in response to an item I have in today’s Impromptus about personal wealth and personal politics. He said, “Fifty-five years ago, my New Deal dad said of some of his friends, ‘I never knew a Communist who was good to his maid.’”

Perfect. And it reminded me of an old line, which I learned — and learned the truth of — long ago: “A Marxist is someone who loves humanity in groups of 1 million or more.”

I have no particular interest in defending Communists or people who are rude to their employees. But the interesting thing here is that Nordlinger appears to believe that if you could actually prove that people with left-wing political views are disproportionately likely to be rude to their subordinates that this would in some substantial way debunk left-wing politics.

The point of left-wing politics, however, is not to secure polite treatment of maids as a matter of nobless oblige, it’s to secure justice and equality for the individuals whom fortune has not seen fit to reward with material wealthy. In a society with a relatively egalitarian distribution of wealth and income, after all, there just aren’t going to be very many maids in the first place. What’s more, the people doing the maid jobs will have appealing other labor market opportunities. And even if they lose their job, their families will still have access to decent health care and education while they search for a new one. Consequently, a rudely-treated maid would have the chance to stand up for herself and most likely secure better treatment. Nordlinger’s idea seems to be that as long as most people are mostly treated nicely by those placed above them in the social hierarchy that the objective powerlessness of those at the bottom is irrelevant.

It recalls the notion of “compassion conservatism,” an appeal to the idea that the halves out to toss some scraps to the halve-nots, as opposed to a fight for real social and economic justice.

Economy

Goldman’s Boom And Citigroup’s Bust Underscore How Much Main Street Is Still Hurting

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

In the last few days, a flurry of banks have released their earning statements for the third quarter of this year, and the differences between the banks that are doing well and those that are doing poorly highlights just how little of the banking sector’s recovery — and the recent Dow surge — is trickling down to the rest of America.

On the one hand, Goldman Sachs made $3.19 billion in the last three months. On the other, Citigroup lost $3.2 billion and Bank of America lost $1 billion. And the difference is, while Citi and BofA are still getting clobbered by losses on consumer items like mortgages and credit cards (to the tune of $8 billion and $9.6 billion, respectively), Goldman is reaping the benefits of its trading business:

Bumper third quarter profits at Goldman Sachs and another loss for Citigroup on Thursday highlighted the gap between the financial resilience of Wall Street and the woes of Main Street, fresh evidence that two Americas are emerging from the crisis. The diverging performance of investment banks such as Goldman and the retail banking operations of the banks such as Citi is problematic for an Obama administration that wants a strong Wall Street but is also under pressure to tackle the plight of ordinary people.

As Kevin Drum noted, “[Goldman] made better bets than the other guys, but the kind of business that would indicate a recovering economy is still very much in the tank.”

But the problem is not simply that Goldman is making money trading currencies, commodities, and risky over the counter derivatives. It’s that Goldman is doing it thanks to significant government support. As National Economic Council Director Larry Summers explained, “there is no financial institution that exists today that is not the direct or indirect beneficiary of trillions of dollars of taxpayer support.” And indeed, Goldman “has had a lot of help”:

Critics charge that the lion’s share of Goldman’s profits comes from making big bets using cheap dollars printed by a Fed…It received $13 billion in the costly, widely questioned September 2008 rescue of insurer AIG. It has sold $22 billion in federally guaranteed debt under a plan the feds started to restore capital markets activity.

Perhaps most troubling is the fact that, in order to gain access to much of the government’s financial rescue effort, Goldman converted from an investment bank to a bank holding company (essentially an institution that, at least in part, takes deposits and lends). But its business activities “haven’t changed at all.” In fact, Goldman’s earnings report shows no sign of any lending activity whatsoever.

As Alan Schram, the Managing Partner of the Los Angeles based investment firm Wellcap Partners, wrote, “now that they are a regular commercial bank they actually trade more, which makes sense: if the US Treasury covered my losses, I would also be happy to take major risks.” And in the meantime, Citi and BofA’s mounting losses reveal that consumers aren’t any better off.

Yglesias

Conservatism in the UK

branding-wherewestand-2008 1

Guess who said this?:

We have a vision of a different America. It is a vision of an America in which our cars run on electricity; high speed trains whisk us from North to South in less time than it takes to get across greater New York; we produce much more but use much less energy to do it; our power suppliers no longer depend to any great extent on imported oil and gas; our homes require less energy, produce far more of their own energy and are heated by gas we produce from our own agricultural and domestic waste.

It is a vision of a United States which leads the world in new green technologies. Secured against interruptions of supply and volatile prices, our industry can plan for growth. Our national security is guaranteed, regardless of decisions by volatile governments elsewhere to close pipelines or restrict supply. It is a decentralized vision rather than one in which all decisions about our energy future are vested in the government. Through it we play our full part in protecting our planet against the effects of man-made climate change.

Well, nobody said it. Instead I changed the words “Britain” and “centralised” to “America” and “centralized.” But it comes from the UK Conservative Party’s low-carbon economy white paper.

I mention this because David Brooks has a pretty good column urging Republicans to learn from David Cameron that, disappointingly, doesn’t mention anything about climate and energy issues. But if you want to make the point that at the moment European center-right parties are both much more politically successful than the GOP and also much more substantively sensible, then climate and energy is probably the topic where you’ll find the biggest contrast. After all, it’s not just that the Conservatives’ climate and energy issues page looks very different from the Republican one—the Republicans don’t have one at all.

Media

Fox News Reportedly Fires Liberal Analyst Marc Lamont Hill

marclamonthillwebYesterday, Accuracy in Media’s Cliff Kincaid announced that at today’s annual News Corp. meeting, he would urge Chairman Rupert Murdoch to fire Fox News analyst Marc Lamont Hill, whom he called a “left-wing cop-killer apologist.” Hill appears as an on-air contributor on shows such as The O’Reilly Factor.

The Live Feed reports that when Murdoch was asked this question (presumably by Kincaid), he replied that Hill had already been fired:

Rupert Murdoch continued Fox News Channel’s duel with the White House on Friday while also announcing the termination of the network’s left-leaning analyst Marc Lamont Hill. [...]

Murdoch also said that Hill has been fired. He revealed the move after a shareholder had raised the question of how Hill was hired, citing his “reputation of defending cop killers and racists.”

According to the report, Murdoch did not say why Hill had been fired. On his twitter feed, Hill seemed to acknowledge news of the report — saying, “Relax, y’all. Don’t believe the internet rumors” — but he didn’t directly deny that he had been fired. Neither Hill, nor Fox News have responded yet to inquiries from ThinkProgress.

But Hill appeared on the Fox Business Network just yesterday. In fact, just after radical Fox host Glenn Beck led a crusade to oust Van Jones from his position as White House clean jobs adviser, Hill defended Jones on the network:

HOST: We now know that he was involved in signing a petition that asked the question of whether or not the Bush administration had involvement in 9/11. He admits he signed it. He says…he didn’t know what he was signing. Would that have come up if he had been required to fill out this form?

HILL: Probably not, actually, because he — if we believe in good faith that he didn’t do it on purpose — and I believe that he didn’t do it on purpose — then he probably wouldn’t have put that down. And I’ll tell you why I believe he didn’t do it on purpose because he’s been very straightforward.

Hill also criticized the White House for not defending Jones. “[Obama] could have dispensed surrogates on the Sunday shows to defend Van Jones. Instead, they did nothing,” Hill complained.

Also during today’s News Corp. meeting, when asked about recent criticism from White House communications director Anita Dunn that Fox News is the “communications arm of the Republican Party,” Murdoch didn’t exactly deny it, saying her comments have “tremendously increased their ratings.”

We’ll update this post as we learn more.

Update

Hill seems to confirm it via this tweet: “You ever had anyone break up with you by text?”


Update

,Mediaite’s Steve Krakauer reports that he has confirmed that Hill was fired by Fox.

Security

Rove: Afghanistan Crisis Not Bush’s Fault

bush roveLately, Karl Rove has taken up the cause of defending the Bush administration’s record on Afghanistan. His main strategy thus far — understandably, given the near-universal acknowledgment that the current crisis in Afghanistan is the direct result of the choice to invade Iraq — is to just make stuff up.

Yesterday, Amanda noted that Rove had insisted that U.S. commanders in Afghanistan were never denied needed troops or resources, a statement contradicted by the former top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. David D. McKiernan.

A few weeks ago, he told Fox’s Greta Van Susteren that the reason Afghanistan is in such bad shape is — I kid you not — because the surge worked. Enough said.

On Van Susteren’s show again last night, though, Rove responded to criticism of the Bush administration’s handling of Afghanistan this way:

ROVE: Well, look, this is — this is — this is the sort of way that we revise history. The current occupant of the White House wants to basically say, Look, they under-sourced — under-resourced Afghanistan, and that’s simply not true. [...]

Our real problem in this region emerged in the last couple of years, when our relationships with Pakistan and events inside of Pakistan — events first inside of Pakistan, and then the first part of this year, the relationship with Pakistan — allowed, you know, the conditions for the Taliban to regroup inside Pakistan and for the Taliban affiliates inside Pakistan to begin to threaten the central government.

It’s not just the current occupant of the White House who says we under-resourced Afghanistan, but also the current Chairman of the Join Chiefs, Adm. Mike Mullen, who told the Senate Armed Services Committee in September that the U.S. had “very badly under-resourced Afghanistan for the better part of five years.” As an international aid worker in Afghanistan told the New York Times’ Dexter Filkins, “the tragedy” is that “the $70 billion that would have given you enough police and army to stabilize this place all went to Iraq.”

As for Rove’s attempt to blame “our relationships with Pakistan and events inside of Pakistan” for the deterioration of Afghanistan, it’s unclear why he thinks this is remotely exculpatory of the Bush administration. It was Bush who placed — misplaced, it turned out — an enormous amount of trust in Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, and who continued to back him long after it had become clear that the authoritarian Musharraf was a far less than dependable ally against extremism.

It hardly needs saying that it’s Rove who is trying to revise history here. Let’s review: It was George W. Bush who allowed Osama bin Laden and the senior Al Qaeda leadership to escape from Tora Bora and set up shop in Pakistan. It was George W. Bush who chose to divert resources and attention from an unfinished war in Afghanistan to start a staggeringly wasteful and counterproductive war in Iraq. And it was George W. Bush who clung to Musharraf until the last moment. It’s perfectly understandable that Republican spinmeisters, especially one so legacy-obsessed as Rove, are now trying to lay Bush’s messes at the feet of the man hired to clean them up, but the reality is that Afghanistan was the key national security challenge of the Bush presidency — and the Bush administration utterly botched it.

Climate Progress

Error-riddled ˜Superfreakonomics, Part 3: It takes a village to debunk their anti-scientific nonsense, but why did they stop Amazon from allowing text searches?

First a favor:  Please digg my original debunking of Superfreakonomics by clicking here.

I’m trying to draw as much attention as possible to the post since the book comes out Tuesday, it has a huge media blitz, and will be heavily reviewed.   My post already been referenced by Nobelist Paul Krugman on his blog (“A counterintuitive train wreck“) and Mother Jones (“The Freaky Science of SuperFreakonomics“) and Think Progress (“SuperFreakonomics Gets Climate Change Super Freaking Wrong,“Ž” among others.

What’s interesting is that since my original post and various other debunkings around the web, the publisher has stopped Amazon from allowing people to search the book.  It’s fairly common for publishers to allow such searching, though not all do — see Amazon bestseller list here.  But I don’t know of a single instance where searching was allowed and then stopped.  It seems to me the publisher must be concerned that bloggers and others could actually see and quote the myriad errors and sheer illogic and patent nonsense for themselves and not bother buying the book, which at least for now has dropped down to #9 on Amazon (it was 3 or 4 over the weekend).

Obviously, a book that contains the sentence, “Any religion, meanwhile, has its heretics, and global warming is no exception,” is anti-scientific.  But probably the worst thing about the book from the point of view of spreading anti-scientific disinformation is the use of the phrase “global cooling” in the subtitle, SuperFreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance.  Millions of people who never even buy the book will now be subjected to that long-debunked piece of nonsense in book reviews and elsewhere.  The book hits the trifecta of global cooling mistakes:

  1. The climate chapter begins with a full page pushing the myth that there was some sort of scientific consensus about global cooling in the 1970s.  Not — see “Killing the myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus.”  The chapter leads off with a NYT article, but, as we’ve seen, even The NYT‘s climate coverage in 1970s was a megaphone for science, not ‘global cooling’ alarmism.
  2. The chapter pushes the “we’re cooling now myth.”  On page 186, Levitt and Dubner write, “Then there’s this little-discussed fact about global warming: while the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased.”  Sadly, it isn’t “little discussed” — the deniers and media have been pushing this for months now, so it doesn’t even qualify as a contrarian view, just utter rubbish, the kind of conventional wisdom these guys used to debunk.  See The BBC asks “What happened to global warming?” during the hottest decade in recorded history! and Skeptical Science explains how we know global warming is happening: It’s the oceans, stupid! and NYT‘s Revkin pushes global cooling myth (again!) and repeats outright misinformation.
  3. The chapter pushes the dystopic notion that the only “cooling” strategy we need to address global warming is pumping massive amounts of acid rain pollution into the atmostphere, which I (and Caldeira and Robock) debunk in Part 1 and Part 2:

Frankly, it’s not possible for one person to debunk every error and illogical statement in just that one chapter — and I haven’t even gotten to the economics, which has one of the biggest blunders of all, as we’ll see.  Fortunately, lots of other people are joining in.  The Union of Concerned Scientists has a thorough debunking of the science here,  summarized below:

Read more

Yglesias

The High Cost of Low Taxes

One issue in health reform that’s gotten very little attention outside of Greg Mankiw’s blog is that the phase-out of the subsidies for low income people is going to have an impact on their incentives that’s similar to a high marginal tax rate:

According to CBO, a family of four making $54,000 would pay $4,800 for health insurance. The rest of the premium would come from government subsidies. If the family’s income rises to $66,000, the subsidy falls, and the cost of health insurance rises to $7,600. In other words, earning an additional $12,000 requires the family to pay an additional $2,800.

I think the best way to think about this (I sort of doubt Mankiw agrees) is as an illustration of the economic cost borne by U.S. political culture’s extreme aversion to taxation. Americans “know” that high taxes are bad for the economy, but this belief doesn’t really lead them to reject the idea of public responsibility to ensure the provision of certain kinds of services. Instead it often leads politicians to embrace ways of doing things that are much less economically efficient than high taxes would be.

SDC10438

In a socialist dystopia like Sweden, when the decision is made that everyone should have access to a certain level of health care services what happens is that the government pays for everyone to get those services. Compared to a complicated mix of mandates and subsidies, this leads to higher taxes. But it can lead to much less in the way of tax-related economic distortions. What’s more, it makes the tax situation much more transparent to policymakers and analysts. I’m pretty sure that nobody on the Finance Committee intends to create the particular set of weird implicit marginal tax rates that are now going to exist for the near-poor. But a number of the members probably don’t quite see what they’re doing. If they were just straightforwardly sitting down to write a tax law, by contrast, everyone could see what was happening.

Politics

Did The Authors Of New Muslim Conspiracy Book Steal Documents From A Muslim Organization?

CAIR2

Wednesday, a small group of House Republicans — Reps. Sue Myrick (NC), John Shadegg (AZ), Paul Broun (GA) and Trent Franks (AZ) — hosted a press conference in the capitol building calling for an investigation of the Muslim-advocacy group Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), alleging that the organization was “connected to…terrorists” and is “planting spies in key national security-related congressional offices.”

The four members of Congress based their claims on assertions made in the new book “Muslim Mafia: Inside the Secret Underworld that’s Conspiring to Islamize America,” co-authored by P. David Gaubatz and Paul Sperry. The authors of the book planted an intern inside of CAIR for six months. The authors claim that a memo the intern obtained from the group proves that the organization “planted spies” inside the nation’s national security infrastructure.

Now, CAIR has filed a criminal complaint against the authors of the book, alleging that the memo they are using to attack CAIR was stolen. Indeed, Sperry was interviewed by Radio America yesterday and admitted that the planted intern “collected whole boxes of evidence marked for shredding” and took documents that “he felt he needed to preserve as evidence [of illegal wrongdoing].” Listen here:

According to DC law, the authors could be guilty of conspiracy to commit theft with a “bias-related crime” specification, meaning that they could face up to 15 years in prison if the stolen document is deemed to have a value of $250 or more, or only 270 days if it is deemed to have less value. From the DC Code:

§ 22-3211. Theft [Formerly § 22-3811]

   (a) For the purpose of this section, the term “wrongfully obtains or uses” means: (1) taking or exercising control over property; (2) making an unauthorized use, disposition, or transfer of an interest in or possession of property; or (3) obtaining property by trick, false pretense, false token, tampering, or deception. The term “wrongfully obtains or uses” includes conduct previously known as larceny, larceny by trick, larceny by trust, embezzlement, and false pretenses.

§ 22-3212. Penalties for theft [Formerly § 22-3812]

   (a) Theft in the first degree. — Any person convicted of theft in the first degree shall be fined not more than $ 5,000 or imprisoned for not more than 10 years, or both, if the value of the property obtained or used is $ 250 or more.
 
(b) Theft in the second degree. — Any person convicted of theft in the second degree shall be fined not more than $ 1,000 or imprisoned for not more than 180 days, or both, if the value of the property obtained or used is less than $ 250.

§ 22-3701. Definitions [Formerly § 22-4001]

   For the purposes of this chapter, the term:
 
   (1) “Bias-related crime” means a designated act that demonstrates an accused’s prejudice based on the actual or perceived race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibility, physical disability, matriculation, or political affiliation of a victim of the subject designated act.

§ 22-3703. Bias-related crime [Formerly § 22-4003]

   A person charged with and found guilty of a bias-related crime shall be fined not more than 11/2 times the maximum fine authorized for the designated act and imprisoned for not more than 1 1/2 times the maximum term authorized for the designated act.

Of course, there was no need to take documents to prove wrongdoing because CAIR was doing nothing illegal. The much-touted memos that the authors claim is evidence of a Muslim conspiracy to undermine the United States are remarkably benign. The passage the authors cite simply says that CAIR will “develop national initiatives such as a lobby day and [place] Muslim interns in Congressional offices.” As Glenn Greenwald notes, this is “consistent with what virtually every political advocacy group in the nation does; it’s normally called activism and democracy. But because, in this case, it’s a group of Muslims who are doing this, these House Republicans are depicting it as some sort of nefarious espionage plot against the U.S. that demands a criminal investigation.”

Yglesias

Hulk Smash Banks (With Special Fees and Capital Requirements)

It really does seem like if even Alan Greenspan is coming around to the view that we shouldn’t allow financial institutions to grow to such enormous sizes that we really shouldn’t allow financial institutions to grow to such enormous sizes. What’s a lot less clear to me is what you can actually do, in practical terms, moving forward. Now if only someone like Alan Greenspan had been voicing these concerns back in the 1990s it would have been easy enough for regulators (like, you know, Alan Greenspan) to deny regulatory approval to the kind of mergers that gave us the superbanks of today. But while regulators can prevent big firms from merging and becoming super-big, I’m pretty sure they can’t just order Bank of America to unmerge itself.

This, I think, is one of the main reasons you hear more about breaking banks up from people talking to newspapers than you do from policymakers. What, exactly, are Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner supposed to do at this point?

Which is why, I think, the idea of enhanced capital ratios and special fees is actually a pretty good idea. Greenspan says “I don’t think merely raising the fees or capital on large institutions or taxing them is enough.” He thinks we need to actually break them up. But raising fees and capital requirements can be a way of doing this. The point would be to make the fees and requirements onerous enough that the managers of large financial institutions find it worthwhile to start finding ways to spin things off and shrink. That would produce the goal of smaller firms without having the Treasury Secretary personally step in and reorganize the commanding heights of the economy. The test is that if the fees are imposed and banks don’t start doing this, you need to come back and raise the fees. The fees need to be high enough to generate substantial fee-avoiding behavior, you can’t just say “well, we’ve got some extra revenue so it’s all good.”

Climate Progress

Energy and Global Warming News for October 16: Toyota pursues shorter-range plug-in — that’s smart.

http://images.thetruthaboutcars.com/2009/05/toyota-edf-plug-in-prius-01.jpg

Toyota plans a shorter-range plug-in hybrid

Toyota Motor Corp. is on track to start testing the prototypes for its first crack at plug-in hybrid cars later this year, a spokeswoman said yesterday.

By Jan. 1, the company expects to release 500 plug-in versions of its Prius onto American, European and Japanese roads, said Toyota spokeswoman Cindy Knight. The cars will use lithium-ion batteries, not the nickel-metal hydride packages seen in Priuses today.

The pilot will kick off a three-year effort by the Japanese auto giant to get data on how these cars fare in the real world: how they’re charged, how their batteries perform, and what sort of mileage they get. In recent years, Toyota has resisted pressure to develop a plug-in, even using commercials suggesting that plugging in hybrid vehicles is a bother.

Engineers will use the new plug-in data to design a more widely produced plug-in version of the Prius, but they don’t intend to copycat other companies’ plug-in efforts, said Tom Stricker, director of the energy and environmental research group for Toyota North America.

The Chevrolet Volt, which General Motors Co. has slated for release late next year, would get a range of 40 miles on all-electric power before firing up its gasoline engine. GM says it based the range on statistics showing that 75 percent of American commutes are less than 40 miles. Early forecasts are that Toyota will aim for an all-electric range of 10 to 15 miles instead.

Batteries are the most expensive part of any electric-drive vehicle, Stricker said, and Toyota has decided that a 40-mile range is too much.

I believe a shorter all-electric range makes sense for early plug ins from both a design and cost-effectiveness basis (see “CMU study suggests GM has wildly oversized the batteries in the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid” and “Has GM overdesigned the Volt: Is a 40-mile all electric range too much?“)  Here’s more:

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