ThinkProgress Logo

Yglesias

Send Troops to Where in Afghanistan?

dorronsoro_strategy_150px

Afghanistan is a big country. So in addition to the question of how many resources should be sent to Afghanistan, there’s the question of where they should go. Recently, the tendency has been to throw additional resources at the parts of the country where things are worse. In his latest Carnegie Endowment report “Fixing a Failed Strategy in Afghanistan”, Gilles Dorronsoro argues that this would be a big mistake. The resources being contemplated, he argues, aren’t enough to win the war in the South. Sending them there would merely guarantee that we also lose the war in the North and the East, without making much progress in the South.

Instead, he prefers to adopt a more defensive posture in the South—securing main cities where the Taliban is disliked—and focus our attention on winning what he regards as the more winnable struggles in the North and East where the Taliban is making gains but isn’t deeply intertwined with local communities. I can’t really assess how true this analysis is, but he certainly seems to make a strong case. This also accords with my sense that the best case for staying in Afghanistan isn’t really scare stories about al-Qaeda but simply the fact that we have something of a moral obligation to help anti-Taliban Afghans defend themselves. That means in the first instance focusing both our troops and our reconstruction money on the places where we’re wanted.

Climate Progress

SuperFreakonomics coauthor Dubner ratchets up the rhetoric, claiming his critics have issued a ˜fatwa!

The Superfreaks come up with their biggest aerosol smoke screen yet  to obscure their book’s countless mistakes, as Brad Johnson reports in this Wonk Room repost.  Note also how Dubner, in playing the victim card, trivializes the very serious issue of religious persecution.

In the latest of many fawning interviews promoting SuperFreakonomics, author Stephen J. Dubner claimed the critics of his “global cooling” chapter have issued a “fatwa for entertaining alternate theories.” On Public Radio International’s morning program, “The Takeaway,” Dubner told hosts John Hockenberry and Celeste Headlee that he was right to call global warming a “religion.” In fact, he considers the criticism the book has received from economists, climate scientists, and energy experts to be “essentially a fatwa“:

In terms of the biggest result, I’d say is: We argued that the movement to stop global warming has the feel of a religion. I think if anything we should strengthen that sentence, because what’s been issued here is essentially a fatwa for entertaining alternate theories.

Listen here:

Read more

Politics

Fox News displays old campaign footage to claim Palin is getting ‘huge crowds’ at her book signings. (Updated)

This afternoon, Fox News host Gregg Jarrett proudly announced that Sarah Palin is “continuing to draw huge crowds while she’s promoting her brand new book. Take a look at — these are some of the pictures just coming into us.” But the pictures that the network chose to display on-air appeared to be old file footage of Palin rallies from the 2008 presidential campaign. Individuals in the crowd are seen holding McCain/Palin signs, and others are holding pom-poms and cheering wildly. “There’s a crowd of folks,” an enthused Jarrett observed, referring to the old footage. Watch it:

The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart recently caught Fox News’ Sean Hannity displaying crowd shots from a rally earlier this year to claim that a recent GOP health care protest drew a larger audience than it actually did. Hannity later acknowledged that he “screwed up.”

Update

Crooks and Liars’ John Amato writes that he is filing an FCC complaint against Fox News for its misleading segment.


Update

,Media Matters points out that one of the videos is from Nov. 1, 2008.


Update

,Fox News has acknowledged they made a “production error” and may take “serious disciplinary action” against those who in the control room who were responsible.


Update

Yglesias

Where are the Vampire Cranks?

EdwardCullen

I like vampires, but I’m not a Twilight fan, as evidenced by the fact that it was only yesterday when I learned that instead of burning in the sun and dying like real vampires, Twilight vamps just . . . sparkle in the sunlight. Nonsense. And isn’t the idea of a dude who’s over 100 years old hanging out with a high school student pretty creepy and weird?

That in turn got me thinking about the aging process. Across various fictions, why don’t vampires exhibit more cranky old man characteristics? I’m only 28 and already I feel myself periodically overtaken by a desire to tell the young people all about How It Was Back in the Day. I’ll bore people with tedious stories about the old Monroe Street Giant in Columbia Heights before the fancy new stores opened, or about how there used to not be all this stuff on U Street but The Kingpin was the best bar in DC. Just yesterday, I think, a colleague and I were explaining to the rest of the ThinkProgress team that if the new progressive infrastructure and its blogosphere last for a thousand years, men will stay say the Social Security privatization fight of 2005 was their finest hour. If I ever attain immortality, I fully intend to harangue the young people of the future with nonsense about Voltron and how people think of Harvey Danger as a one-hit wonder but really that whole album’s underrated and had other good songs.

That and, you know, murder people in order to feast on their blood.

Alyssa

Carried Away

Since a new, deluxer-than-ever, first-time on Blu-Ray edition of Gone With The Wind has just rolled out, I thought I’d throw up a link to a post I did about Scarlett O’Hara over at Ta-Nehisi’s spot when I was guest-blogging there earlier in the year, and before a lot of you knew me.  The movie is severely dated in certain ways.  It’s racial politics are outrageously retrograde, and its sexual politics are problematic to say the least.  But Scarlett is hard to beat as a heroine.  Vivien Leigh is so vital in the role, and Mitchell gave her extraordinary material to work with.  It’s hard to believe that Leigh died of tuberculosis–it doesn’t seem like anything could have defeated her.  And it’s hard to believe that no one’s really come up with a female character that unlikeable and unscrupulous and brave and made her an absolute icon and role model of survival in the same way ever since.

Economy

Goldman Sachs Apologizes, Pledges ‘Equivalent Of One Good Trading Day’ To Small Businesses

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

Acknowledging that maybe he isn’t always “doing God’s work,” Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein yesterday took some responsibility for his company’s role in the economic crisis. “We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret,” he said. “We apologize.”

And to show us that they really mean it, Goldman is devoting $500 million over the next five years to scholarships for business education and loans to small businesses:

Goldman Sachs said late Tuesday that it would provide $500 million to support small businesses, hours after its CEO Lloyd Blankfein apologized for the group’s role in the global financial crisis…The group said it will provide $100 million a year over the next five years, including a total of $200 million to provide scholarships for business and management educations and $300 million in the form of “loans and philanthropic support” to increase access to capital for small businesses.

Not that I want to in any way discourage big businesses from undertaking such efforts, but, really? As Daniel Indiviglio wrote, “maybe I’m crazy, but I don’t think this initiative, though a pleasant effort, will have many angry Americans putting down their pitchforks currently pointed at Goldman. If Goldman really wants to impress anyone, they’re going to have to do a little better than this.”

For some perspective, Goldman has already set aside $17 billion for bonuses this year, which could climb to $23 billion by year’s end. So the five-year program amounts to 2 percent of this year’s bonus pool. The Financial Times pointed out that “the $100 million annual cost is the equivalent of one good trading day” and that Goldman “had 36 days in the third quarter where it made more than $100 million.” And loans account for part of the $500 million, which presumably have to be paid back, while Goldman will get a write-off for any charitable giving, thus reducing their tax exposure.

And its not just Goldman that’s having a lot of good trading days recently. According to a report from the New York City Comptroller, “Wall Street profits in 2009 are on track to exceed the record set three years ago, at the height of the credit bubble”:

The report noted that the four largest investment firms in Manhattan — Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and the investment banking arm of JPMorgan Chase — earned $22.5 billion in the first nine months…Net revenue at the four firms, which excludes interest expenses, reached a high of $57.7 billion in the second quarter.

Of course, instead of $500 million, Goldman could up its small business program to, say, $23 billion (or whatever the entirety of its bonus pool turns out to be). After all, that money was earned, in large part, by Goldman’s access to cheap money from the Federal Reserve.

Barring that development, Democrats in Congress are reportedly looking quite seriously at a financial transactions tax, which is an excellent idea, unless we want to count on further charity from Blankfein and co. to boost the country towards economic recovery

Yglesias

Interstate 68

Good magazine has a cool schematic representation of the Eisenhower Interstate System modeled on London’s Tube map. It helps you really understand the logic of the system. And, in turn, focusing in on this one element of it helps illustrate my contribution to Robert Byrd Day:

I68

Yes, as you can see here someone got a full-scale EIS highway constructed between Morgantown, WV and Hamilton, Maryland. Morgantown is a nice place, but the Morgantown metro area has only about 111,000 people in it. Your congressional delegation needs some real clout to get that kind of thing built.

Security

Palin: ‘Jewish Settlements Should Expand,’ Even In Palestinian Areas

palinisraelIn an interview with ABC’s Barbara Walters, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin separated herself from decades of U.S. policy — which has held that Israel’s settlements in the Occupied Territories are illegitimate and an impediment to peace — saying that she thinks “Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expand”:

WALTERS: The Obama administration does not want Israel to build any more settlements on what they consider Palestinian territory. What is your view on this?

PALIN: I disagree with the Obama administration on that. I believe that the Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expanded upon, because that population of Israel is, is going to grow. More and more Jewish people will be flocking to Israel in the days and weeks and months ahead. And I don’t think that the Obama administration has any right to tell Israel that the Jewish settlements cannot expand.

WALTERS: Even if it’s [in] Palestinian areas?

PALIN: I believe that the Jewish settlements should be allowed to be expand.

Not only does Palin disagree with the Obama administration on that, she also disagrees with the Bush administration, whose 2002 “roadmap for peace” called for a settlement freeze. In fact, every U.S. administration since Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza began in 1967 has opposed Israel’s building of settlements, which are held to be illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention:

Article 49. The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.

In addition to violating Israel’s obligations under international law, the settlements are a major source of anger and frustration for Palestinians, and one of the main drivers of extremism and violence among both Palestinians and Israelis. By further entrenching Israel within the Palestinian territories, the settlements also make a two-state solution — which both Presidents Bush and Obama have recognized as a central U.S. national security interest — far more difficult to achieve.

Palin’s wild views on Jewish settlements might help her steal some radical right-wing religious support from Mike Huckabee, but they have disastrous implications both for U.S. and Israeli security, as well as for Palestinian national and human rights.

Yglesias

The Soviet Union Was a Real Empire, And Really Bad Too

Warsaw Pact invasion of Prague, 1968

Warsaw Pact invasion of Prague, 1968

I’ve been trying to stay out of the Sarah Palin blogging. But though there’s a lot to be said about her, the really important thing is that for a prospective national leader she has terrifyingly little grasp of public policy issues. For example, take this curious remark from a softball interview with National Review:

The term I used to describe the panel making these decisions should not be taken literally,” says Palin. The phrase is “a lot like when President Reagan used to refer to the Soviet Union as the ‘evil empire.’ He got his point across. He got people thinking and researching what he was talking about. It was quite effective. Same thing with the ‘death panels.’ I would characterize them like that again, in a heartbeat.”

This is a reminder that faced with anything other than a bending-over-backwards-to-not-embarrass-her interview, Palin can’t get through the easiest questions without humiliating herself. Dave Weigel suggests the obvious followup: “Which part of ‘evil empire’ was not literal?”

The Soviet Union was an honest-to-god literal empire and Reagan was calling it evil. Not metaphorically evil. Evil. That was the point. To show that he wasn’t going to let the practicalities of détente stop him from calling it like it is. And this isn’t just a random point of history, it’s relevant to an ongoing political and policy controversy about the merits of putting “moral clarity” at the center of your approach to dealing with autocratic regimes.

Health

Can Lawmakers Build A Sustainable Long-Term Care Insurance Program?

long-term“The problem with long-term care is that it suffers from a lack of interest,” Howard Gleckman, a resident fellow at the Urban Institute and author of “Caring For Our Parents,” told me in an interview. “When I talk to members of Congress about this issue, they just don’t care. It’s not on their radar screen. And their attitude too often is, ‘I’ve got enough trouble here with health reform, I don’t want to deal with this too.’” But “people who have multiple chronic disease, or severe disabilities, or living in frail old age, don’t make a distinction between what’s their medical care and what’s their long term care. You just need care,” he stresses.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is rumored to have included the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports Act, or CLASS Act – a voluntary long-term care insurance program which covers medical and non-medical services like dressing, bathing, and using the bathroom — in the merged Senate bill, despite criticism from economists that the program would eventually pay out more in claims that it would collect in premiums and become an unfunded liability.

Long-term care proponents contend that the current system of financing long-term care is also unsustainable. Americans spend more than $200 billion a year on long term care services in nursing homes, at home, or in assisted living facilities. “Medicaid is now the largest single provider of long-term care costs — it spent more than $100 billion last year, over one-third of its budget” and “paid more than 40 percent of the nation’s total long-term care bill.” Families and senior citizens (and Medicare to a lesser extent) pick up the rest of the tab, often spending down to “$2,000 in financial assets” to qualify for Medicaid coverage. By mid-century, the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the nation will have to spend 16% of anticipated federal revenues on Medicaid to fund care for the baby-boom generation.

“So the question is how do we fix this system? How do we create a system that can both relieve the burden on families and relieve this burden on government?,” Gleckman asks. The CLASS ACT is just one solution. It establishes “a national insurance program to be financed by voluntary payroll deductions to provide benefits to adults who become severely functionally impaired.” All working adults will be automatically enrolled in the program, unless they choose to opt out.

Gleckman sympathizes with critics who say that CLASS may become unsustainable over the long term and argues that policy makers must design a plan that attracts enough young participants and offers a fair benefits package to its enrollees. The plan must be both affordable and comprehensive:

A simple way to do it [ensure that the program is not paying out in claims more than it is taking in] is to make it mandatory. That’s what the Germans have done, and the French and the Japanese and almost every other industrialized nation around the world has done…. If you have a mandatory program, you accomplish two things. The first is you of course eliminate the adverse selection problem, because everyone is in the program, and the other thing is, you are able to push down rates to level where they are pretty easily affordable for most of the population.

Gleckman says that a mandatory long-term insurance program could push down premiums to $45 a month on average, even lower ($12-$20/month) for younger Americans. “But again, the problem is the politics. Can you really do a mandate in the current political environment? The sponsors of the CLASS act made a decision that they couldn’t, so consequently they’re struggling to create a program that has a benefit that is descent enough that people would be interested in, but doesn’t have premiums so high that it will chase people away.”

Working within these political realities, lawmakers can amend the existing CLASS legislation to ensure that the program is sustainable over the long term:

- Vary premiums by age: Currently, enrollee would pay the same premium for life. This increases the cost of the average premiums and pushes young people out of the program. By increasing the premium slightly every year, “you make it possible to sell to young people at a very very low rate.”

- Greater flexibility to HHS flexibility in design: Since it’s unclear who will participate in the program and whether high premiums will detract younger Americans from enrolling, giving the HHS secretary greater flexibility in varying premiums and benefits would ensure that the program is fiscally sound over time.

– Buy the insurance with pre-tax dollars: To encourage participation, premiums could be purchased with pre-tax dollars.

- Requirement that only working adults can purchase coverage: While nonworking spouses also need coverage, limiting enrollment and risk exposure to working Americans may be an option for strengthening the solvency of the legislation.

“Affordability is the key to this,” Gleckman says. “They’ve got to find a way to keep premiums below $100.” Moreover, policy makers must stop talking about long-term care “as a way to pay for the rest of health care reform.” “The more you talk like that, the more people don’t see this as insurance, they just see this as another government bait-and-switch program. ‘I’m going to be paying all this money, and 40 to 50 years from now, when I actually need it, it’s not going to be there.’ I would design it so that it would really fund itself and the money stayed separate from the rest of government.”

Older

Newer

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up