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Obama Advisers Soften Afghanistan Timetable, Suggest U.S. Troops May Not Pull Out In 2011

In his Afghanistan policy address last week, President Obama said we would “begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011.” In a series of in-depth profiles of the behind-the-scenes conversations that took place in the lead-up to this pronouncement, the Washington Post and New York Times report that the President wanted a strategy to get in and get out.

“The military was told to come up with a plan to send troops quickly and then begin bringing them home quickly,” the Times writes. “He had asked for a plan to deploy and pull out troops quickly,” writes the Post. Looking at a bell curve that laid out the timetable for the deployment and withdrawal of U.S. troops, Obama reportedly told his advisers: “I want this pushed to the left.” The Times writes, “In other words, the troops should be in sooner, then out sooner.”

But as administration officials touted the President’s Afghanistan strategy this morning on the Sunday political talk shows, they underscored that the U.S. troops may not be coming home in 2011:

Gen. David Petraeus: “There’s no timeline, no ramp, nothing like that.” [Fox News Sunday]

National Security Adviser James Jones: “It is not a cliff. It is a glide slope. And so certainly, the President has also said we are not leaving Afghanistan.” [CNN State of the Union]

Defense Secretary Robert Gates: “Well, first of all, I don’t consider this an exit strategy. And I try to avoid using that term. I think this is a transition.” [ABC This Week]

Watch a compilation:

On Meet the Press, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, “We’re not talking about an exit strategy or a drop dead deadline.” Gates added, “We will have a significant — we will have 100,000 forces — troops there. And they are not leaving — in July of 2011.”

Jones also told the BBC, “In no manner, shape or form is the United States leaving Afghanistan in 2011.” Afghan President Hamid Karzai is also making a push to soften the timetable. He told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that “if it takes longer [than 2011], they must be with us.”

Notably, Vice President Joe Biden — who was reportedly a skeptic of the escalation strategy — did not appear on political talk shows to tout the new strategy. Biden did sign his name to an e-mail sent to Obama supporters last week saying he believes it is a “focused strategy that can succeed.”

Update

On CBS, Gates said the beginning of the withdrawal is “firm,” but the pace is conditions-based:

On CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Gates insisted that the specific date was “firm,” but said that just how many troops would come home at that point would be determined by the country’s progress.

“What is conditions based is the pacing at which our troops will come home and the pace at which we will turn over responsibility to the Afghans,” Gates said.

Yglesias

The Strange Persistence of Carbon Tax Advocates

It’s hard to know what’s going on in the heads of people who think that we could solve our problems if only environmentalists would ditch cap-and-trade in favor of a carbon tax scheme. Their basic point, that the kind of carbon tax proposal that policy wonks would dream up would be superior policy to the kind of cap-and-trade plan that would result from the compromises necessary to get 60 votes in the Senate, is very true. But by the same token, the kind of cap-and-trade proposal that policy wonks would dream up would be superior policy to the kind of carbon tax plan that would result from the compromises necessary to get 60 votes in the Senate.

People really should, my view, spend more time worrying about why it is that the U.S. legislative process involves doing such violence to policy proposals from a technocratic point of view. This is a big problem, and one that it would probably possible to ameliorate (though not eliminate) through procedural reforms.

But it is what it is. Switching the initial proposal around doesn’t change the basic realities. And that’s especially true because the initial proposals are actually extremely similar. On the one hand, you could tax people who emit carbon dioxide. On the other hand, you could sell permits to people who want to emit carbon dioxide. There’s a difference between these proposals, but it’s a very small difference. Once the sausage gets made, you wind up with a cap-and-trade plan that looks pretty different from that, but that’s because of the sausage-making process not because of any intrinsic features of the legislative proposal. Anyone who thinks a carbon tax would necessarily be simple ought to spend an afternoon looking into the corporate income tax.

Climate Progress

British PM Gordon Brown attacks “anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics” while UK Conservatives reaffirm climate science and need for “desperately urgent” Copenhagen deal

Miliband: “The approach of the climate saboteurs is to misuse data and mislead people.”

“With only days to go before Copenhagen we mustn’t be distracted by the behind-the-times, anti-science, flat-earth climate sceptics,” Brown told the Guardian. “We know the science. We know what we must do. We must now act….”

05.12.09: Martin Rowson on the climate change sceptics

So the British PM joins the leaders of Australia and this country in condemning the anti-science disinformers (see Obama takes on the anti-scientific delayers, while Australia’s Rudd slams the “deniers” and the “gaggle” of “conspiracy theorists” opposing climate action).  The above cartoon appeared in the UK’s Guardian with the headline “Brown attacks ‘flat-earth’ climate change sceptics.”

And yes, I’m glad Brown picked up the phrase “anti-science” — it’s better and clearer than “denier” [see "Diagnosing a victim of anti-science syndrome (ASS)"].  Who knows, maybe he reads Climate Progress!

Ed Miliband, Brown’s Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change — a position Brown created (and if climate change doesn’t need an SOS, what does?) — joined in the condemnation:

Read more

Yglesias

The Decline of the Dollar

Something I’ve heard a fair number of people complain about is that since Barack Obama took office the dollar has gotten a lot cheaper, or “weaker” as they say. This sounds bad to people, even though it’s probably a good thing under the circumstances. More to the point, it’s important to note the context:

dollar

Now if you know someone who spent all of 2007 and the beginning of 2008 lambasting conservative economic policies for destroying the value of the dollar, and then who felt that good things were happening to the economy during the fall and winter of 2008, as reflected in the rise of the dollar, then you know someone who’s a crazy crank. But he’s a crazy crank who’s earned the right to complain about Obama! But if you know someone who never mentioned the falling dollar in 2007, and never mentions today that the Obama-era “plummet” merely reflects a reversion to where things were before the financial panic, then you know a partisan crank.

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