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America’s broad climate action effort

Global support for a new international consensus is key to success at Copenhagen

This repost details all current U.S. climate efforts is by CAP’s Andrew Light, Julian L. Wong, Kari Manlove, and Saya Kitasei.  The photo is of preparations taking place for the UN climate summit at the Bella Convention Centre in Copenhagen.

President Barack Obama and the United States’ leadership in the upcoming U.N. climate change conference in Copenhagen will be instrumental to a successful outcome. The United States is the world’s largest historical and per-capita emitter of greenhouse gases. We cannot hope to meet the goal of limiting increases in global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius without U.S. participation in a new international convention to limit carbon pollution. Getting to that agreement will require an unprecedented level of international cooperation. Yet the United States’ notable inaction on climate change for eight years under the Bush administration has left a legacy of mistrust.

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Alyssa

So, SNL Did Something Funny

By Dylan Matthews

Late Saturday night, something weird happened:

I was lucky enough to come of age during Tina Fey’s stint as SNL head writer, a time of relative excellence for the show. Between Tracy Morgan’s semi-Dadaist sketches (remember Brian Fellow?), Amy Poehler’s extreme versatility, and Will Ferrell’s mere presence, a middle school boy could have done a lot worse in terms of formative comedic material. Indeed, Ferrell entering a business meeting in nothing but a half-shirt and an American flag Speedo was pretty ideal as far as cultural responses to 9/11 went.

Ever since Poehler left for the surprisingly dull Parks and Recreation, however, the show has become pretty much unwatchable. There’s a nice sketch here and there, but sitting through an entire episode seems wholly unendurable. Even supposed “returns to form” were awful. When your show’s savior is supposedly something as idiotic and single-note as “What’s Up With That?”, you have a problem.

But Blake Lively, of all people, just hosted the best episode I’ve seen in years. There’s a Gossip Girl parody that manages to make fun of a target as easy as Staten Island in a still entertaining way, a not-that-exaggerated recreation of this delightfully obscure YouTube concert promotion clip, and, yes, a skit about potato chip theft set at NASA offices and featuring people with Foghorn Leghorn accents. The weirdest part is that these all relied on existing cast members who’ve never had trouble being unfunny in the past. Will Forte and Jason Sudekeis, for instance, have helmed many a crappy skit in their day, but absolutely destroy “Potato Chip.” I don’t know if this is a sign of a revitalized writer’s room or just a stroke of good luck, but it’s definitely progress.

Security

‘Waiting Us Out’ In Afghanistan…Would Be Great.

talibanWhile conservatives have generally been pleased with President Obama’s decision to send 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, many have expressed disappointment at the president’s promulgating Summer 2011 as a goal for beginning the handover of security responsibilities to Afghans, suggesting that announcing any sort of drawdown goal will only cause the Taliban to hunker down and “wait us out.”

Elrod at the Moderate Voice has a good response:

Quite simply, the Taliban does not have the luxury of “waiting us out” for 18 months. If they survive that long then it is because we failed in our ground-level counterinsurgency policy, not because we telegraphed our intention not to stay indefinitely. And if they do try and lay low and wait us out, the Afghan army and government will have had that much more time to establish its legitimate control over the entirety of southern Afghanistan.

If killing the enemy were the main goal, then their decision to hunker down and wait for the U.S. to begin leaving might be a problem. But as the main goal of the new COIN strategy in Afghanistan is to secure the population, build trust with local communities through effective delivery of services, all the while increasing Afghan capacity to continue doing those things when we leave, it’s really not. The Taliban “waiting us out” would just give the U.S. more time and space to make Afghanistan a more inhospitable place for the Taliban.

Beyond that, the “they’ll wait us out!” argument betrays a pretty clear lack of understanding of the counterinsurgency strategy being implemented in Afghanistan, in which the civilian population, not the enemy insurgents themselves, are the focus of operations. When Sen. John McCain criticizes talk of withdrawal by insisting, as he did on Meet the Press yesterday, that “The rationale for war is to break the enemy’s will,” all he’s telling us is that he hasn’t bothered to do his homework on this particular war. Which, given McCain’s known preference for empty sloganeering over actual policy, should be shocking to no one.

Yglesias

Cap and Trade Reduces Pollution No Matter Who Gets the Permits

There’s a somewhat unfortunate strain of left-wing criticism of cap-and-trade that seems based largely on not understanding how cap-and-trade actually works. Paul Krugman, for example, today notes that the great climate scientist James Hansen seems to have a number of erroneous views on this subject.

One point that I think deserve special emphasis, because I’ve spoken to many people who are confused about it, is that the point needs to be made that in terms of environmental impact, it doesn’t matter who you give carbon permits too. When the government sets a cap on carbon dioxide emissions, the overwhelming environmentally relevant issue is just “how low is the cap.” Everything beyond that is about money and economics, don’t environment and the atmosphere. The reason is that once you cap emissions, the right to emit becomes a valuable thing. If the government auctions off the permits, then the government gets the money and can spend it on something useful. If the government gives the permits away to me, then I’m going to sell them and get rich. If the government gives the permits away to polluters, then some polluters will keep on polluting just as they would under the auction scenario, except they’ll be spared the cost of actually buying the permit. And other polluters are going to realize that the cost of reducing pollution is less than the money they can earn by selling permits.

However you do it, pollution is reduced. If the cap is aggressive, it’s reduced a lot. If the cap is timid, it’s reduced a little. The allocation of permits is an issue of who bears the costs of reducing pollution, it has nothing to do with the extent of the pollution reduction. In general, auctioning the permits is more economically efficient and thus a generally better idea, but it’s a total wash environmentally. The fact that some politically powerful subset of polluters may reap a financial reward is unfortunate, but not actually relevant to the climate issue.

Politics

Sen. Hatch’s Solution For The Economy: Put The Country ‘Back Into Conservative Republican Hands’

Today, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) appeared on Fox Business and unleashed an angry tirade against the Democratic majority in Congress. As Fox host Alexis Glick fawned over the senior Republican senator — praising his characterization of Democrats’ policy ideas as “doggone stupid” — Hatch agreed that Democrats are trying to “socialize the country.”

Towards the end of the interview, Glick asked him what his “solutions” are to the problems the country faces, prompting Hatch to respond that he’d start by putting the country “back into conservative Republican hands” and keeping the Bush tax cuts:

FOXBIZ: What are your solutions to jobs, the unemployment situation, rising health care costs, energy costs that are rising, inflation that is still a concern, how do we solve these issues right now? Are we trying to do too much too quickly?

HATCH: Number one you get the arrogance of power by throwing the Democrats and get the control back into conservative Republican hands. Number two we should not do away with the Bush tax cuts, those marginal tax cuts are a major help to try and keep the economy going. Number three we should use fifty state labratories to do health care.

Watch it:

While the country continues to face enormous economic problems — like a double-digit unemployment rate and the number of Americans on food stamps hitting an all-time high — there is little evidence that a return to the policies pursued by conservatives that Hatch favors would do anything to improve the situation.

During the last year of President Bush’s term, the median household income in the United States dropped 3.6 percent to $50,303, the sharpest drop since the government began keeping records in 1947. During Bush’s tenure, the number of Americans in poverty increased 26.1 percent, while child poverty jumped 21.4 percent. In total, the Bush years saw 8.3 million people fall into poverty.

There was one group, however, that did well under the Bush years Hatch seems to yearn for. The Congressional Budget Office found in 2007 that families “earning more than $1 million a year saw their federal tax rates drop more sharply than any group in the country as a result of President Bush’s tax cuts,” prompting the New York Times to conclude that “rich families were the undisputed winners from President Bush’s tax cuts.”

Climate Progress

Energy and Global Warming News for December 7: Climate projections UNDERestimate CO2 impact — USGS; White House raises climate summit stakes

The U.S. Geological Survey reported today on a major new study, “Climate Projections Underestimate CO2 Impact“:

The climate may be 30-50 percent more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the long term than previously thought, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience yesterday.

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Health

New Analysis Of Health Reform Legislation Goes Beyond CBO/CMS Methodology, Finds Greater Savings

Policy makers have long complained about the conservative methods of the Congressional Budget Office, criticizing the budget office for failing to score savings from prevention, modernization, and payment reform. As Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-MT) said during one hearing on health care reform, “We’re not in the old situation where whatever CBO says is God. In my judgment you’re not God. My judgment is that the press — there’s a whole new era and, um, you might be Moses, but not God.”

This afternoon, the Commonwealth Fund and the Center for American Progress Action Fund released a new study that quantifies the savings from the provisions that the CBO and the Center on Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) largely ignore.

Economists David Cutler, Karen Davis and Kristof Stremikis go beyond the CBO/CMS methodology by relying on business literature about the inefficiency in the health care sector, experiences of health practitioners, and the real world experiences of Geisinger Health System, Health Partners, Denver Health and others. This more “inclusive use of evidence” estimated higher savings from modernization and payment reform.

In some sense, the analysis is a direct response to the CMS analysis of the House bill. That report argued that the health care industry could not achieve the productivity of other industries because most health care service “tends to be very labor-intensive.” Cutler, Davis, and Stremikis contend that “in past 20 years, every time we changed pay structures, doctors and hospitals have responded enormously to that.” “If this doesn’t work in health care, then health care will be the only industry in the economy where better incentives don’t lead to better performance,” Cutler said on a conference call with reporters.

As a result, the report finds that the Senate bill would reduce the deficit by up to $459 billion over ten years (approximately $300 billion more than CBO estimates) and produce Medicare savings of $576 billion (nearly $200 billion more than CBO estimates for the Senate bill). The annual growth rate “in national health expenditures falls from 6.4 percent absent reform to 6.0 percent under the Senate proposal,” the report concludes:

CommonWealthCAPCharts2

The CBO, it should be noted, has admitted the limitations of its conservative methodology. Over the summer, CBO chief Doug Elmendorf admitted during a Senate Budget Committee hearing, “we have very little evidence about interlocking changes in the complex health-care system, and I don’t think that our numbers should be the ultimate determinant of the policies that you and your colleagues will vote for and against.” As Robert Reischauer — the CBO head from 1989 to 1995 — put it after one member of Congress wished to know if the CBO’s estimates about President Clinton’s health care reform plan were “in the ballpark,” “Congressman, I believe that we are in the town the ballpark is in. ”

Yglesias

Poll Shows Substantial Oppositition to Health Reform from the Left

If a pollster asked me how I feel about the health reform proposals in congress, I would tell him that I am a 100 percent enthusiastic backer of these reforms, that I regard as the most awesomest reforms ever proposed by humankind. But that’s because I know how polls are reported in the press, not because that’s how I actually feel. If given the ability to answer a nuanced question, I would say that these are reforms that are worth doing but that don’t go nearly as far as I would like in changing the system. Now Nate Silver tells us about a poll that actually did offer some nuance, an Ipsos-McClatchy survey that let people say something about what they though was wrong with the bill:

hc

One way to look at this: 43 percent of people favor health care reform, whereas 38 percent oppose it (20 percent are undecided). But the actual plan under consideration gets numbers that are more or less the reverse of that — 34 percent in favor, 46 percent opposed — because a significant number of people think the plan doesn’t go far enough.

This has always been my assumption, but it’s good to see some empirical conversation.

On the merits, I think it’s crucial to draw a distinction between a bill that doesn’t go as far as an ideal bill would go, and a bill that actually doesn’t go far enough to be worth doing. My view is that a bill that will provide a modicum of decent health insurance to millions of currently uninsured Americans, while also making some progress on various aspects of delivery reform and cost control is a bill that would be worth doing. But at the same time nothing that’s been on the table legislatively has gone remotely as far as ideal policy would in terms of either curbing the role of insurance companies or transforming the delivery of health care services.

Politics

EPA finally makes it official: Greenhouse gases endanger the American public.

Lisa Jackson, EPA After years of denial, suppression, and delay, the United States government has finally officially recognized that greenhouse gases are dangerous pollutants under the Clean Air Act. The Obama administration has slowly worked on the decision, first sent to the White House by the Environmental Protection Agency in March, then opened for months of public comment through the summer. Less than an hour after the United Nations Climate Change Conference completed its opening day in Copenhagen, Denmark, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson made the “significant climate announcement” at 1:15 pm that global warming pollution endangers the health and welfare of the American public:

This administration will not ignore science or the law any longer, nor will we avoid the responsibility we owe to our children and our grandchildren. Today, I’m proud to announce that EPA has finalized its endangerment finding on greenhouse gas pollution and is now authorized and obligated to make reasonable efforts to reduce greenhouse pollutants under the Clean Air Act.

In 1992, the United States signed an international treaty to “prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system” from greenhouse gases. Seventeen years later, after the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases have decimated the world’s glaciers and Arctic ice cap, acidified the oceans, intensified hurricanes and droughts, increased smog and wildfires, and driven species to extinction, the Barack Obama administration is recognizing its legal obligation to begin regulating this deadly threat.

Yglesias

David Koch, Climate Change, and Human Evolution

bh-01-prog 1

Lee Fang has a post about how David Koch, one of the ten richest men in America and a major source of financing for right-wing attacks on climate science, also likes to portray himself as a friend of science and uses his money to get glowing reviews from the likes of the Smithsonian Institution Human Origins Program director Rick Potts: “What we find in David Koch is a person who’s committed to doing things for the American public that has no relationship to politics.”

The reality, of course, is that Koch is intensely political, funding, among other things, the “Hot Air Tour” aimed at misleading the public about climate science and the Competitive Enterprise Institute, which is one of the leading denialist institutions out there.

That said, as best I can tell Koch is also genuinely interested in research into human evolution. He helped underwrite NOVA’s excellent recent three-part series “Becoming Human.” It seems to be available online and I recommend people watch it. That said, if you watch the end of Episode One you can see Koch the Paleoanthropology Enthusiast collide with Koch the Global Warming Crank as it concludes with an oddly upbeat description of the positive role cataclysmic shifts in climate have played in human history. What the research is saying, basically, is that climate swings led to a lot of death, destruction, and extinctions thus opening up new ecological niches that our ancestors filled but the material is presented in a weird “change is good!” kind of way that avoids mentioning all the death.

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