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Realism, Neoconservatism, Liberalism, And Iran

green movementThe problems with Richard Haass’ latest op-ed start with the first sentence, in which he writes “Two schools of thought have traditionally competed to determine how America should approach the world.”

Realists believe we should care most about what states do beyond their borders — that influencing their foreign policy ought to be Washington’s priority. Neoconservatives often contend the opposite: they argue that what matters most is the nature of other countries, what happens inside their borders. The neocons believe this both for moral reasons and because democracies (at least mature ones) treat their neighbors better than do authoritarian regimes.

Given that neoconservatism didn’t exist before the 1960s, it’s odd to claim that it has “traditionally competed to determine” anything, let alone the direction of American foreign policy. (The prefix “neo-” is important here: It means “new”!) Neoconservatives themselves didn’t even really start being identified with foreign policy until the early 1970s, when people like Irving Kristol and Norman Podhoretz, having abandoned liberalism for what they saw as its insufficiently militaristic nationalism, began to mount a challenge within the conservative movement to what they saw as Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s insufficiently militaristic anti-Communism. It’s more accurate to say that realism and neoconservatism have, for the last forty or so years, competed for control of the Republican foreign policy apparatus (and at this point neoconservatives are in a more commanding position, which may have something to do with Haass’ chosen pitch.)

The definition Haass gives for neoconservatism actually more accurately describes liberal internationalism, which holds that the internal behavior of states determines, to a significant extent, their foreign policies, that democracies get along better with other democracies, and therefore it should be a goal of U.S. foreign policy to have more democracies in the world, and less oppressive, authoritarian states. What neoconservatism brought to the foreign policy conversation that was new was the idea that the maintenance of a robust American nationalism was an objective moral good (a function of their belief in the importance of culture), that a highly moralistic and militaristic approach to foreign policy was required to maintain that nationalism, and that those who questioned or criticized such an approach were, by weakening the American will, objectively on the side of America’s enemies. We saw all of this played out pretty explicitly with the war in Iraq.

It’s not unreasonable to expect the president of the Council on Foreign Relations to be familiar with all of this. But, having posited this false foreign policy choice between realism and neoconservatism, he spends the rest of the article telling us how he’s moved from one to the other. Haass now thinks it’s important for the administration to give more support to Iran’s opposition movement. Interestingly, as was reported almost two weeks ago, the administration thinks this too!

Haass cautions that “Iran’s opposition should be supported by Western governments, not led,” and that “outsiders should refrain from articulating specific political objectives other than support for democracy and an end to violence and unlawful detention.” This tracks with what we’ve heard from Iranian democracy activists, and it’s clear that Obama has been listening too. As the Iranian opposition’s calls for more Western solidarity have increased, so has the president’s rhetoric.

If this equals “neoconservatism,” no one told the neoconservatives, who, as from the very first, have continued to badger the president to take the hardest possible line, defiantly inconsiderate of what Iranians themselves were actually saying, and of the possible consequences for the protesters and their cause.

In contrast to the brutish grandstanding of the neocons, President Obama has shown that he understands that an invigorated Iranian opposition is currently in competition with the regime for the loyalty of the great mass of Iranians, many of whom are clearly deeply disenchanted with their government but not yet ready to embrace the jarring discontinuity of regime change. (The Declaration of Independence had something to say about this.) Given the history of U.S. interference in Iran, and the very recent record of neocon-inspired hostility, Obama’s explicitly enlisting the United States in the Iranian opposition would, at this point, not help the opposition make its case. This may change, and if it does, so should the policy.

At the same time, Obama has effectively put his administration on the side of freedom by waiving provisions of certain sanctions to put important internet tools into the hands of Iranians themselves. It’s true that such an approach lacks “the satisfying purity of indignation,” but, on the other hand, it does have the benefit of actually helping the Iranian people.

Whether Haass’ simplistic rendering of the situation should be taken anything more than his attempt to ingratiate himself with a particular political faction, I’m not sure, but it does a real injustice both to the president and to the Iranian reformers who he’s been meticulously trying, in various ways, to create space for.

Yglesias

How Close Were We, Really?

180px-stethoscope-2

If you go back two weeks to before the Massachusetts unpleasantness, one thing that I was doing at that time was on-and-off disagreeing with some of my reporter friends about the odds that health care would fall apart at the last minute. I didn’t have anything like the Coakley Collapse in mind, I just thought that the odds of the House and Senate working out a deal weren’t as good as some were saying.

And I do think that part of what we’re seeing in the post-Coakley failure of nerve is precisely that the deal wasn’t really sealed even if Coakley had lost. We’d wound up with a Senate bill that reflected, overwhelmingly, the preferences of moderate Senators many of whom were fundamentally uncomfortable with the whole idea of ambitious party-line legislating. And the kind of liberal members, especially in the House, who were most favorably disposed to phrases like “$900 billion overhaul of the nation’s health care system” weren’t getting any of their pet priorities in terms of public option or pharma price controls but were being asked to swallow tax and IMAC ideas that they didn’t like. On top of all that, the White House wasn’t engaging in any kind of high-profile public defense on the perceived points of opposition attack—tax hike, Medicare cut, and IMAC-as-rationing. Last there was the abortion issue.

Now that’s not to deny that they were, in fact, close. In fact we’re still close and the door is still very open, logistically, to moving forward with essentially the deal that folks were working toward pre-Coakley. But I think the speed with which Coakley’s loss was seized upon as a reason not to walk through that door underscores how fundamentally uncomfortable with the framework so many people were. Say Coakley had turned back the tide and beaten Brown 51-49. Couldn’t some members have looked at that and said that Coakley’s very weak showing in the true-blue Bay State showed the unpopularity and infeasibility of Provision X and thrown a wrench in the works? It feels to me that a lot of members were looking for an excuse not to do it, and now they’ve seized upon one. But the underlying impulse to seek excuses and shift blame was long there.

This in turn illustrates the inherent difficulty of qualitative legislative compromise. You can do quantitative compromise—I want $800 billion, but I settle for $600 billion. And you can do horse trading compromise—You want A, I want B, so we do A and B. But qualitative compromise—I want Universal Medicare, you want to “bend the curve” while protecting profits for insurers and drug companies—is really difficult. It’s an inherently messy business. And in this case it resulted in the kind of plan that really ought to have been bipartisan, the way it was in Massachusetts, but looks very awkward when it becomes something liberals don’t love but moderates find nerve-wracking.

Politics

Bayh Claims ‘There’s A Fighting Chance’ Obama Will Call For A Spending Freeze

In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg’s Al Hunt, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) — who met with members of the administration’s economic team this week — said that he believes there’s a “fighting chance” that President Obama will call for a freeze on discretionary spending in his next budget:

We can do something right here, right now, starting next week. The President can say in his State of the Union address, ‘I’m going to include in my budget a freeze on discretionary spending, I’m drawing the line in the sand, and I’m willing to use my veto pen to enforce that’…I think there’s a fighting chance that he will. That’s what I’m looking for.

Watch it:

Bayh is the signature model of a “deficit peacock”: someone who likes to harp on deficits, while at the same time voting for budget-busting expenditures like a $250 billion tax cut for the heirs of wealthy families. So his approval of a spending freeze fits right in.

What’s more troubling is that the administration might take this seriously. This all stems from Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag asking every executive department to submit three budget proposals, including one that freezes spending and one that reduces spending by five percent. The administration has also made other noise about serious deficit reduction in fiscal year 2010 being under consideration.

There’s obviously something to be said for identifying programs that don’t work or that overlap with other programs. But a straight spending freeze is a blunt instrument that has no place in responsible budgeting. When the Republicans proposed various versions of a spending freeze during the debate over Obama’s first budget (and when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) had the same idea during the presidential campaign), they were correctly regarded as being in right-wing fantasy land.

Not only is a freeze a poor way to budget that doesn’t take into account priorities or the effectiveness of a particular program, but it will also have an anti-stimulative effect while the economy is still struggling through a middling recovery. Bayh analogizes the federal budget to a family’s checkbook, but the truth is that there is a lack of demand in the economy — an output gap between what the country could produce and what is is actually producing — that only the government can fill. “We cannot invite a W-shaped recession, or an M-shaped recession,” said Rep. John Olver (D-MA), when asked about a spending freeze.

“Do you think we could have a 5 percent reduction in [Low-Income Home Energy Assistance]?” asked Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ). “Do you think we could have a 5 percent reduction in food stamps?” The real long-term issues in the budget have little to do with discretionary spending and everything to do with health care costs, entitlements, and plummeting tax revenue in the wake of an economic crisis. A blunt spending freeze sounds nice, but only real reform in those other areas tackles the actual problems with the federal budget.

Cross-posted at The Wonk Room.

Yglesias

A Simple Question

When House and Senate members who already voted for their respective chambers’ versions of health reform need to debate opponents who say things like “he voted for Obamacare, I was always against it” what do they intend to say in response?

“No, I only voted for one specific version of it; I opposed the alternate version in the other branch of Congress and that one was the unpopular one. The version I liked was really great.”

Is that going to make sense to voters? Seriously, what’s the plan? I know some people who work on the Hill read the blog . . . what’s your boss going to say?

Economy

Bayh: There’s A ‘Fighting Chance’ That Obama Will Call For A Spending Freeze

In an interview yesterday with Bloomberg’s Al Hunt, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) — who met with members of the administration’s economic team this week — said that he believes there’s a “fighting chance” that President Obama will call for a freeze on discretionary spending in his next budget:

We can do something right here, right now, starting next week. The President can say in his State of the Union address, ‘I’m going to include in my budget a freeze on discretionary spending, I’m drawing the line in the sand, and I’m willing to use my veto pen to enforce that’…I think there’s a fighting chance that he will. That’s what I’m looking for.

Watch it:

“On a personal level people say, well, wait a minute. I’ve got to balance the family checkbook. I’m making do with a little less now. Why can’t the government do the same thing?” Bayh added. Now, Bayh is the signature model of a “deficit peacock”: someone who likes to harp on deficits, while at the same time voting for budget-busting expenditures like a $250 billion tax cut for the heirs of wealthy families. So his approval of a spending freeze fits right in.

What’s more troubling is that the administration might take this seriously. This all stems from Office of Management and Budget Director Peter Orszag asking every executive department to submit three budget proposals, including one that freezes spending and one that reduces spending by five percent. The administration has also made other noise about serious deficit reduction in fiscal year 2010 being under consideration.

There’s obviously something to be said for identifying programs that don’t work or that overlap with other programs. But a straight spending freeze is a blunt instrument that has no place in responsible budgeting. When the Republicans proposed various versions of a spending freeze during the debate over Obama’s first budget (and when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) had the same idea during the presidential campaign), they were correctly regarded as being in right-wing fantasy land.

Not only is a freeze a poor way to budget that doesn’t take into account priorities or the effectiveness of a particular program, but it will also have an anti-stimulative effect while the economy is still struggling through a middling recovery. Bayh analogizes the federal budget to a family’s checkbook, but the truth is that there is a lack of demand in the economy — an output gap between what the country could produce and what is is actually producing — that only the government can fill. “We cannot invite a W-shaped recession, or an M-shaped recession,” said Rep. John Olver (D-MA), when asked about a spending freeze.

“Do you think we could have a 5 percent reduction in [Low-Income Home Energy Assistance]?” asked Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ). “Do you think we could have a 5 percent reduction in food stamps?” The real long-term issues in the budget have little to do with discretionary spending and everything to do with health care costs, entitlements, and plummeting tax revenue in the wake of an economic crisis. A blunt spending freeze sounds nice, but only real reform in those other areas tackles the actual problems with the federal budget.

Climate Progress

NASA makes it official: 2000s were the hottest decade on record, 2009 tied for second warmest year

“In total, average global temperatures have increased by about 0.8°C (1.5°F) since 1880.”

“There’s a contradiction between the results shown here and popular perceptions about climate trends,” [NASA's James] Hansen said. “In the last decade, global warming has not stopped.”

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A3.lrg.gif

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) released its final report on 2009 surface temperatures Thursday, concluding:

2009 was tied for the second warmest year in the modern record, a new NASA analysis of global surface temperature shows. The analysis, conducted by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, also shows that in the Southern Hemisphere, 2009 was the warmest year since modern records began in 1880….

January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. Throughout the last three decades, the GISS surface temperature record shows an upward trend of about 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade.

This is especially impressive because we’re at “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.”  The point is, notwithstanding the all-too-effective disinformation campaign of the anti-science crowd, it’s getting hotter “” thanks primarily to human emissions.

I usually show the combined global temperature record, but the split figure above for the hemispheres is interesting for two reasons.  First, we see that 2009 set the record for the southern hemisphere, which is dominated by water.

Second, the figure suggests one reason why Americans have softened their views on global warming in the face of a well funded disinformation campaign pushing the “global cooling” myth — and general lame media coverage on the subject.  Both 2008 and 2009 were not close to record-breaking for temps in the northern hemisphere.  And indeed, during those years, parts of North America saw relatively cool temperatures.  GISS and Hansen comment on this very point in the report:

Read more

Climate Progress

Can Houston Survive Inaction on Climate Change?

That’s the title of my talk at the University of Houston-Clear Lake tonight at 6 pm (info here).

In the long-term, the answer is kind of obvious:

But I welcome thoughts on what message would be worthwhile to deliver right now.

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