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Climate Progress

Pentagon: “Climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked”

This guest repost is by Wonk Room’s Brad Johnson.

For the first time, the Pentagon’s primary planning document addresses the threat of global warming, noting that it will accelerate instability and conflict around the globe. Former Senators John Warner (R-VA) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) added language requiring the department to consider the effects of climate change on its facilities, capabilities, and missions to the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act. The Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review, officially released today, discusses the department’s “strategic approach to climate and energy”:

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Yglesias

All the Young Punks

Cindy Brown, CAP’s VP for Education, released a statement on the FY 2011 budget proposal:

Today the president announced his proposed budget, calling for a $3 billion increase in education spending. We’re deeply encouraged by the budget proposal because it pushes important education reforms such as improving teacher effectiveness and turning around low-performing schools as well as tying dollars to results. We’re particularly heartened by the investments in teacher quality, and the budget includes a new $950 million competitive fund for states and districts to support innovative approaches to rewarding effective teachers, particularly in high-need schools.

Spending what it takes to recruit and retain the best possible teachers is very important, as this hilarious clip that my colleague Matt Corley shared with me today demonstrates:

On a related note, I kept meaning to see The Class (Entre les murs) but never got around to it. Is it worth Netflixing?

Alyssa

The End of Decadence

I feel sort of obligated to say more about why I didn’t like Wall Street.  I think it’s partially just that while Rain Man has some definitive eighties touches, the events could plausibly have been set thirty years further back in the past or further in the future, and with some tweaks about the medical understanding of autism, would have worked just fine.  The conditions that made Wall Street both plausible and scandalous have been obliterated.  Gordan Gekko is something of a piker compared to businessmen today.  Bud Fox’s ambition and trashy taste seem like a failure of imagination rather the pinnacles of excess.  And no movie today would have a group of union presidents storm in as exemplars of righteousness and as key players in a plot twist.  Watching the movie made me feel ancient and nostalgic, and I was all of three years old when it was released.

And I think as much as I liked Michael Douglas’s performance, Oliver Stone didn’t have the ambition to create a full portrait of the Devil.  The fundamentals of the character are great: Gordan Gekko has an easier time than Mephistopheles ever did at doing wrong, since humanity is setting itself up to be exploited, and is eager to exploit other people.  But at the same time, the Devil’s sold out.  He’s buying his way onto public boards and amassing an art collection, not because he wants to make either the Bronx Zoo or art collecting ridiculous or agents of evil, but because on some level he wants to be respectable.  The characterization would have been better, and I rarely say this, if Stone had been willing to commit to one extreme or another, to make Gekko either totally evil and manipulative, able to see Bud Fox coming for him and ready for it, or if he’d been willing to make him genuinely pathetic, undone not by his tactics but by his desire for respectability.  Gordon Gekko shouldn’t actually be human in the final analysis.

There are other, obvious flaws with the movie.  Darryl Hannah really, really should have been permitted to drop out of the role.  A blonde interior decorator named after an aspirational Connecticut suburb needs a higher level of irony than Hannah’s mustered into her combined roster of acting roles.  Stone may have liked Charlie Sheen’s flat acting style, but it doesn’t serve him well in expressing pathos, or in making his rage seem anything other than a temper tantrum.  Reducing the other traders at the firm to archetypes is unfortunate: it could have been a funnier, more multi-layered supporting cast, and the firing of the older broker who has no retirement savings could have been better-developed as a more realistic downside to the way the movie’s main characters are living.

I do think Wall Street is beautifully shot.  The initial circling around the Twin Towers has acquired an additional power over time, of course.  But the opening journey through a crowded New York commute and the closing shot of the crowds going into and out of the courthouse are wonderfully choreographed: Bud emerges from the masses and then returns to them.  And the shot of Michael Douglas on the beach in the early morning, watching the wave crest behind him is just gorgeous, a powerful and effective metaphor that transcends its own corniness.

Economy

Dodd May Drop Limits On Banks: ‘He Is Not Going To Risk Bipartisan Support’

Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Last month, the Obama administration released a set of proposals to limit bank size and risk-taking, including a limit on proprietary trading (banks trading for their own benefit) which is being called the “Volcker rule,” in honor of former Federal Reserve Chairman and outspoken bank critic Paul Volcker. House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) said at the time that he could see the proposals becoming law within six months.

However, the Financial Times is reporting that the Volcker rule will “either be dropped or significantly modified in the Senate.” A staffer for Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) said the justification for weakening or discarding the limits is simply that Republicans, including banking committee ranking member Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), don’t like them, and Dodd wants the bill to be bipartisan:

A Dodd staffer said the senator is likely to quietly drop or modify many of the recommendations in the Volcker rule to ensure Republican support for regulatory reform. “Chris is retiring so he wants to end his career with an important regulatory reform bill and he wants to make the bill bipartisan,” the staffer said. “He is not going to risk bipartisan support to make the White House happy.”

There have already been reports that Dodd is thinking of dropping the very necessary Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) from his proposal, and ditching the Volcker rule would be one more instance of the interests of the banking sector trumping the interest in a secure economy. Plus, Dodd seems to be giving Shelby and the Senate Republicans effective veto power over various aspects of regulatory reform in an effort to drum up some Republican votes, which seems to be a fool’s errand. After all, Shelby said last week that he is perfectly fine doing nothing at all to rein in the banks.

In fact, just about every regulatory reform measure that Democrats have proposed has met with resistance from Republicans, if not outright scorn. Bank tax? No. Consumer Financial Protection Agency? No. Resolution authority? Nope. Breaking up “too big to fail” firms? No. Derivatives regulation? No. Consolidating bank regulators? Nope.

And just take a look at this memo from GOP wordsmith Frank Luntz — last seen teaching Republicans how to obstruct health care reform — which details how to kill regulatory reform outright. As the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein reported, Luntz “urged opponents of reform to frame the final product as filled with bank bailouts, lobbyist loopholes, and additional layers of complicated government bureaucracy,” regardless of the bill’s actual contents.

The most pernicious part of the memo is Luntz’s tip that “frankly, the single best way to kill any legislation is to link it to the Big Bank Bailout.” This, despite the bank bailout and regulatory reform legislation having nothing to do with each other, and the fact that the legislation passed by the House last year puts measures in place that would prevent future bailouts.

When the Volcker rule was first proposed, Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ) asked “do you really want to start confining the banks and their ability to make profits?” And that seems to sum up the GOP view — anything less than a system in which the banks are free to wheel and deal to their hearts’ content is unacceptable. So instead of caving and crafting a regulatory reform bill that does nothing to fundamentally secure the financial system, Dodd should just bring a solid bill to the floor and dare Republicans to vote against it.

Yglesias

Judd Gregg, When Left to His Own Devices, Is an Orthodox Conservative Who Doesn’t Care About the Deficit

File-Greggofficial2009

What a strange remark from Howard Gleckman:

Senator Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) is a good guy and, left to his own devices, is serious about deficit reduction. But even Gregg can’t pass the laugh test anymore. This morning he put out a press release entitled “We Need a Game-Changing Budget, Not More of the Same.” This from the top budget-writer of a party that passed an unfunded Medicare Part D drug benefit and massive tax cuts when it controlled Washington, and just last week voted in lockstep to oppose efforts to restore paygo rules for tax cuts and entitlement spending. Oh, and a majority of GOP senators even opposed Gregg’s own plan to create a deficit reduction commission.

This seems confused. Gregg isn’t just the top budget guy of a political party that “passed an unfunded Medicare Part D drug benefit and massive tax cuts when it controlled Washington, and just last week voted in lockstep to oppose efforts to restore paygo rules for tax cuts and entitlement spending.” Gregg himself, as an individual, did all of those things. And he’s retiring from the Senate, so it’s not as if some mysterious forces outside his control have been pulling the strings. He doesn’t owe anyone anything.

It’s just that Gregg is a conservative and conservatives don’t care about the deficit. They care—passionately—about taxes. Specifically, they want lower taxes. They may or may not in some sense “want” a smaller deficit, but they don’t let deficit worries stand in the way of tax cutting and they view deficit-reduction as no excuse for tax hikes. Gregg is very typical, whether left to his own devices or not.

Economy

Wall St Consultant Frank Luntz Pens Memo On How To Channel Economic Anxiety Into Protecting Wall St Abuses

Frank Luntz

Frank Luntz

Last Saturday, at the lobbyist-organized GOP retreat, President Obama called out GOP strategist Frank Luntz for pursuing tactics meant to simply “box in Obama” rather than pursue substantive policy debate. True to form, Luntz has released a new memo — obtained by the Huffington Post — which lays out the arguments and language Republicans should use to kill financial reform. Luntz, who gained national recognition for his role in shaping the buzzword-heavy Contract for America with Newt Gingrich in 1994, has built a sizable business selling his messaging advice to both corporations and Republican campaigns.

The new memo instructs opponents of financial reform to simply lie about reform legislation, and to twist economic anxiety resulting from the recession into fear of any government effort to fix the underlying cause of the financial crisis. The most dishonest argument is that financial reform would “punish” taxpayers while rewarding “big banks and credit card companies.” In reality, top financial industry lobbyists are not only fighting proposed oversight regulations, but have said recently that they are opposed to “any regulation” at all.

Luntz, ever the publicity hound, leaks his memos out to the media to claim credit for the Republican charge against reforming Wall Street. While he is certainly a driving force behind much of the GOP misinformation, a closer look at his client list reveals that he is in fact being paid by the finance industry:

Luntz client Ameriquest Mortgages: The proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) would eliminate predatory mortgages. Ameriquest, America’s “sub-prime leader,” has been prosecuted by Attorney General Richard Blumenthal for inflating property values so borrowers could get bigger loans, imposing upfront fees without reducing interest rates as promised, and intentionally deceiving lenders with hidden penalties and interest rates on final loan documents.

Luntz clients Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns: Under proposed financial reform, big banks, like Luntz clients Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, would face a new structure designed to police financial products, prohibit predatory ones, and require clear forms and disclosures. The CFPA would also help regulate hidden bank fees and other bank abuses.

Luntz client American Express: The CFPA would regulate the credit card industry, preventing predatory interest rates and fees.

Nearly every attack recommended by Luntz is not grounded in reality. For instance, he calls for opponents of reform to label a CFPA head an “unaccountable” “czar.” But the legislation clearly states that the CFPA’s Director would be appointed by the President, and then confirmed by the Senate. Luntz also charges that reform advocates are behind “lobbyist loopholes” in the bill. However, the most controversial loophole was inserted by Rep. John Campbell (R-CA), whose amendment allows an exemption for auto dealers. Of course, Campbell still tried to kill financial reform once it arrived on the House floor.

Confusing the public is the point of Luntz’s work. In an interview explaining his smears against health reform, Luntz told the New York Times last year that it did not matter what the actual policy offered — he would still call it a “Washington takeover.”

Yglesias

Unemployment Forever

Ryan Avent brings us the bad news from Christina Romer’s budget talk:

[CEA Chair Christina Romer] then gave the unemployment forecast. At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate, according to the administration’s forecast, will be 9.8%. At the end of 2011, the rate will be at 8.9%. And at the end of 2012, after the next presidential election, the unemployment rate will be 7.9%.

Some historical context:

unemployment 1

We’re looking, in other words, at years worth of “recovery” during which the unemployment rate will be at what would normally be deemed recession levels. And the plan from both the Fed and the OMB seems to be to accept this—fiscal retrenchment and no further monetary action.

Politics

San Francisco Commonwealth Club postpones O’Keefe event.

James O'Keefe Controversial right-wing activist James O’Keefe, whom the FBI recently arrested for trying to tamper with Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D-LA) phones, was supposed to hold his first public event since getting out of jail at the San Francisco Commonwealth Club today. But that event has now been “postponed.” The Commonwealth Club’s Director of Public Relations, Riki Rafner, told ThinkProgress that O’Keefe “could no longer make the event in person and he chose to postpone it until he could.” However, the San Francisco Chronicle notes that the club is willing to reschedule when O’Keefe is ready. The Salt Lake County GOP also recently canceled O’Keefe as its featured speaker at its Lincoln Day Dinner on Feb. 4.

Update

Emptywheel points out that O’Keefe is scheduled to be on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show tonight.

Alyssa

Kill. Me. Now.

I can’t even bring myself to acknowledge this rumor by putting it in the blog itself.  But if this is true, there will be hell to pay around the Spider-Man reboot, which I’ve thought was generally a good idea.

Climate Progress

Misguided “cap and divide” bill by Cantwell and Collins is neither politically nor environmentally viable

Net Emission Reductions Under Cap-and-Trade Proposals in the 111th Congress, 2005-2050

Climate politics can be very strange indeed.  Because cap-and-trade bills like Waxman-Markey are seen as having no chance of passing the Senate, some enviros appear to be shifting their support to bills that are politically even less attractive and environmentally even less adequate.

The latest misguided missile is the Carbon Limits and Energy for America’s Renewal (CLEAR) Act put forward by Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Susan Collins (R-ME) “” full text and info here.  Supporters call it “Cap-and-Dividend,” but right now I think the best term for it is, “Cap-and-Divide,” since it has no chance whatsoever of becoming law but is serving to undercut the tripartisan effort by Graham, Kerry, and Lieberman to develop a bill that might get 60 votes.

I’m all for pursuing innovative solutions to get a comprehensive climate and energy bill, which conventional wisdom keeps saying is highly improbable this year.  But to be a “solution,” such a bill would need to achieve the emissions reductions in 2020 required for a global deal — in the range of 17% –  and, of course, it has to be politically viable.

Cap-and-Divide, however, doesn’t even pass the environmental viability test, as the first-rate researchers at World Resources Institute have shown (click to enlarge figure, full analysis here).  And while W-M is far from perfect environmentally, as I’ve said many times,   it would enable a global deal.  W-M’s biggest problem is that it can’t get 60 votes in the Senate or even close.   But “cap-and-divide” is certainly less politically viable than Waxman-Markey or Kerry-Boxer.

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