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Alyssa

Fast Living

I’m not going to lie.  I find Jonah Hill a little sinister.  I’m aware that he’s supposed to be the funny fat guy in the Frat Pack, especially now that Seth Rogen’s slimmed down to start doing action movies, but I’ve always felt like there was something mordant, and not in a funny way, in the guy’s manner, something that the trailer for Cyrus gets at really well.  But I cannot, cannot resist Russell Brand, who managed to be funny in the otherwise dreadful Bedtime Stories (I saw it with a small kid, don’t judge) and even though the trailer for Get Him to the Greek seems to rely pretty heavily on gross-out one-crazy-night cliches, I will see it anyway:

Given what a terrific character Aldous Snow was in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, I’m glad Brand’s getting more screen time to play him.  I’m not particularly worried that the character was a one-off.  Rather, I think the real risk in Get Him to the Greek is that it relies heavily on the crazy-rockstar part of Snow, rather than the fact he’s a multifaceted, funny guy, someone who is capable of hurting a girl a lot while also teaching a virginal young husband how to please his wife.  Sure, Snow was callous, and pretentious and absurd in certain ways, but he was also a lot more fully alive than Peter.  There’s a hint of that in the trailer, when after one of said crazy nights, Hill wakes up and groans,”What time is it?”  Snow, already dressed in exercise clothes, a “5am…shall we go jogging?”  Clearly, this is a guy who isn’t wasting a single minute.

Climate Progress

Texas State Climatologist Disputes State’s Denier Petition: Greenhouse Gases ‘Clearly Present A Danger To The Public Welfare’

John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist

Texas’s own state climatologist can find no scientific basis in his state’s effort to roll back the Environmental Protection Agency’s finding that greenhouse gases endanger the public. Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott (R-TX) filed paperwork to challenge the EPA endangerment finding yesterday, with the approval of Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX). Dismissing threats like sea level rise, droughts, and floods that global warming poses to Texas, the petition calls for the finding to be reconsidered, based on the argument that the EPA relies primarily on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an institution guilty of “serious misconduct“:

Thus, in light of the serious misconduct the State has demonstrated—data manipulation, loss or destruction information, reliance on questionable source materials, abuse of the peer review process, suppression of dissent, conflicts of interest, and failure to comply with freedom of information laws—the EPA should grant this petition and reconsider the Endangerment Finding.

Abbott’s petition takes the “Climategate” conspiracy theories of climate deniers as fact, spinning a tale of “a cadre of activist scientists colluding and scheming to advance what they want the science to be.”

If there is such a conspiracy, it’s extended its tendrils deep into the heart of Texas. In an email interview, Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon utterly dismissed the attacks on climate science in Attorney General Abbott’s petition. After explaining that natural concentrations of greenhouse gases are essential to life on this planet, Dr. Nielsen-Gammon continues:

However, it is also apparent that if atmospheric concentrations of the six greenhouse gases continue to rise due to human influence, the Earth would eventually reach a point where there would be massive disruptions of ecosystems, changes in sea level, decreases in air quality, and so forth that would, in particular, substantially harm the public welfare of those generations forced to experience them. So anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gas concentrations clearly present a danger to the public welfare, and I agree with the EPA’s findings in that sense.

Nielson-Gammon — who notes at his blog Atmo.Sphere that he did not participate in preparing the petition — also concludes that the IPCC, United States Global Change Research Program, and National Academy of Science reports on climate change are the “most comprehensive, balanced assessments of climate change science presently available”:

Do I think that the EPA based its assessment on sound science? I think, by basing its assessments on the IPCC, USGCRP, and NAS reports, it was basing its assessments on the best available science. I have the expertise to independently evaluate the quality of these reports, and on the whole they constitute in my opinion the most comprehensive, balanced assessments of climate change science presently available.

Although he expressed concerns with the potential cost of greenhouse gas emissions controls, and believes that climate science has “a tendency to focus on the risks and bad consequences of global warming” instead of “potential benefits,” he knows of no reason to doubt that the planet is warming, that greenhouse gases are involved, and that sea levels are rising.

Full text of email interview with Dr. Nielsen-Gammon:
Read more

Culture

The Impact of Title IX

16well_chart-popup

With talk of Birch Bayh in the air, it seems appropriate to note some new research indicating that the expansion in girls’ sports opportunities has had substantial benefits:

States with large boys’ sports programs had to make bigger changes to achieve parity than states with smaller programs. Looking at the state-by-state statistics allowed Dr. Stevenson to narrow her focus, comparing differences in sports participation with differences in women’s educational and work achievement.

So her study untangles the effects of sports participation from other confounding factors — school size, climate, social and personal differences among athletes — and comes far closer to determining a cause and effect relationship between high school sports participation and achievement later in life.

Using a complex analysis, Dr. Stevenson showed that increasing girls’ sports participation had a direct effect on women’s education and employment. She found that the changes set in motion by Title IX explained about 20 percent of the increase in women’s education and about 40 percent of the rise in employment for 25-to-34-year-old women.

That’s a legacy you can be proud of. The same NYT item also notes Robert Kastner’s recent study showing substantial public health gains from Title IX. And it is worth emphasizing that even though I firmly believe that expanding access to health insurance will improve health outcomes, there’s very good reason to think that things outside the health care sphere would have bigger impact on health outcomes.

Politics

GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz agrees with concerns of 9/11 truthers: ‘There’s still a lot to learn.’

Last year, Fox News host and hate radio talker Glenn Beck launched a successful smear campaign again White House green jobs adviser Van Jones. One of Beck’s main accusations was the charge that Jones had once signed a “9/11 trutherpetition asking for another investigation of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Demanding that Jones resign, Beck called 9/11 truthers “truly disturbed people.” Recently, a truther organization called “We Are The Change” spoke to Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) — a friend of Beck and a frequent guest on his show — about reopening an investigation into 9/11. Chaffetz agreed with the activist, and even noted that he had spoken to professor Steven Jones, leading 9/11 truther, who Chaffetz said had done “interesting work”:

Q: A reopening into the investigation of 9/11?

CHAFFETZ: Well there’s a lot we still need to learn. Of course we want to look into that issue, look at every aspect of it. [...] Who was the BYU professor? [...] Steve Jones, yeah I’ve met with him. He’s done some interesting work.

Q: Have you given much thought to the possibility it was a false flag terrorist attack on 9/11?

CHAFFETZ: Well I know there’s still a lot to learn about what happened and what didn’t happen, we should be vigilant and continue to investigate that, absolutely.

Q: Appreciate that. We at We Are The Change believe it was a false flag terrorist attack, that the buildings came down with internally placed demolition.

Watch it:

Recently, Beck repeatedly denounced tea party activist Debra Medina — a contender for the Texas gubernatorial nomination — for having 9/11 truther views. Will Beck be consistent with his quest to call out public officials on 9/11 trutherism, and demand that Chaffetz resign as well?

Economy

On Stimulus Anniversary, Republicans Jeer While Analysts Cheer

Today, marks the one year anniversary of the day that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, i.e the stimulus package) was signed into law. So of course, Republicans are marking the occasion by lambasting the act and continuing to falsely claim that it has done nothing to reverse the country’s economic freefall:

Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN): One year later, one thing is clear: the stimulus bill has failed. One year later, not one net job has been created as unemployment rose from 7.6 percent to nearly 10 percent nationwide. Mr. President, millions of Americans are asking, ‘where are the jobs?’

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY): In the first year of the trillion-dollar stimulus, Americans have lost millions of jobs, the unemployment rate continues to hover near 10 percent, the deficit continues to soar and we’re inundated with stories of waste, fraud and abuse. This was not the plan Americans asked for or the results they were promised.

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH): Americans are asking ‘where are the jobs’ but all they are getting from Washington Democrats is more government, more borrowing, and more debt piled on the backs of our kids and grandkids.

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA): It’s been a year, and the President and Speaker Pelosi are still trumpeting a stimulus program that most Americans intrinsically know has failed to achieve the goals that were set for it.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee even put together a web video about the stimulus “boondoggle.” But as the New York Times’ David Leonhardt pointed out today, independent analyses tell a quite different story. “Perhaps the best-known economic research firms are IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com. They all estimate that the bill has added 1.6 million to 1.8 million jobs so far and that its ultimate impact will be roughly 2.5 million jobs,” Leonhardt wrote. “The Congressional Budget Office, an independent agency, considers these estimates to be conservative.”

stimcharts2

The economy also expanded at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 5.7 percent last quarter, much of which can be attributed to the stimulus package.

And of course, as Lee Fang has exhaustively documented, Republicans are not so down on the stimulus when it comes to money sent to their home states and districts. In fact, 110 Republican lawmakers — more than half of the GOP caucus — are “guilty of stimulus hypocrisy.” These include McConnell, who has returned to Kentucky to brag about stimulus projects, and Cantor, who has hosted job fairs populated by stimulus recipients looking to hire.

So the stimulus is doing exactly what it was projected to do, albeit in a worse economy than proponents were predicting at the time. And possibly the worst result of the GOP’s steady stream of misinformation is that it has clouded public perception (with just 6 percent of Americans believing that it has created jobs), which is imperiling new job creation efforts. As of right now, the bills before the Senate are nowhere near ambitious enough to deal with unemployment that is still too high.

Media

Adventures in Bad Positive Political Commentary

Robert Edward Lee

A lot of bad politically commentary is normatively bad—it espouses things that decent people find repugnant. But some of it is terrible as a description. For example, consider this January 6 item from Charles Lane which warned that “under the Internet-intensified pressure of recession, terrorism and global uncertainty, the four parties are breaking out of the two-party mold that had previously contained them.” Four parties? Yes. According to Lane “Obama finds himself torn between progressives demanding an ideologically pure health-care program, among other agenda items, and a pragmatic wing desperately attempting to hold together 60 Senate votes by whatever means necessary” while “it’s unclear whether the party’s right wing is angrier at Obama or at its own leadership.”

So there’s your four parties. I think that analysis is a little silly, but things get way sillier:

Where could it all lead? The past is not prologue, but party instability of this magnitude could be the harbinger of even bigger changes. The U.S. political system actually fractured into four major parties in 1860 — and we all know what happened next.

Yes, that’s right, the existence of routine tensions between party bases and cautious party establishmentarians heralds the looming collapse of the United States of America and our descent into civil war. And all this because of the Internet!

Politics

McCain Falsely Claims He Has ‘Never Favored’ Capping Greenhouse Gas Emissions

mccainconfusedLast week, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — who is facing a primary challenge from former right-wing GOP congressman J.D. Hayworth — played along with Fox News host Sean Hannity’s uninformed idea that the recent snow storms in the mid-Atlantic region disprove that the earth’s climate is changing. “I think they made some movie that showed that the earth was going to freeze over as a result of global warming. I never quite understood that,” McCain said.

Yesterday, a local Arizona conservative talk radio host told McCain that “80 percent” of global warming science “is based on fraud and misinformation.” Despite having previously refuted such nonsense publicly, McCain again remained silent. Pandering to the far right, the Arizona senator later said he “never” supported capping carbon emissions:

Q: If we knew then what we know today about these scientists and this fraud, would you still be in favor of capping carbon emissions at 2000 levels?

MCCAIN: I’ve never favored it at a certain level. I’ve favored reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the good of — I mean we all know that greenhouse gases are bad! But I’ve said, in order to achieve that we have to have nuclear power as a component of it.

Listen here:

In fact, McCain has actually co-sponsored cap-and-trade legislation. “We need a successor to Kyoto, a cap-and-trade system that delivers the necessary environmental impact in an economically responsible manner,” McCain wrote in a 2008 op-ed. And during the his 2008 presidential campaign, he delivered a major speech on his plan to address climate change. “A cap-and-trade policy will send a signal that will be heard and welcomed all across the American economy,” he said in the speech. And he specifically outlined his plan to cap carbon “at a certain level”:

McCAIN: We will cap emissions according to specific goals, measuring progress by reference to past carbon emissions. By the year 2012, we will seek a return to 2005 levels of emission…by 2020, a return to 1990 levels…and so on until we have achieved at least a reduction of sixty percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050.

This isn’t the first time McCain has tried to run to the right on this issue to fit his political objectives. During the 2008 campaign, he tried to claim that by supporting cap-and-trade, he wasn’t endorsing any “mandatory cap.” But of course, a “cap” is in fact a “mandatory” limit. The New York Times noted last week that McCain “is likely to keep his distance” from his previous support of cap-and-trade and addressing global warming, an issue he “once led” on, because of Hayworth’s primary challenge.

Ironically, during yesterday’s radio interview, McCain also said, “[The liberal media has] been accusing me of changing positions and all that. The fact is I haven’t changed them. I’ve always fought hard for the things that I believe in.”

Update

McCain spokesperson Brooke Buchanan has responded saying that he “was referring to 2000″ rather than the general concept of capping carbon. But the Washington Post notes that McCain had also proposed capping greenhouse gases at the 2000 level. As for McCain’s silence on the host’s global warming denial? “Those weren’t his words, those were the talk show host’s words,” Buchanan said. “He’s not going to get in an argument with a local talk show host about what he said.”

Alyssa

Calling On All New Yorkers

If any of you have a chance to get to the exhibit on sissy bounce, the variation of the New Orleans hip-hop genre created by queer and trans performers, at the Abrons Art Center on Henry Street, will you let me know if it’s good?  For those of you not in New York, like me, this fantastic mixtape of a bunch of prominent sissy bounce MCs’ work is a great place to start.  I like the mix of things in here: semi-rough production, some ethereal-sounding electronic stuff, gender-bending Beyonce samples.  And it’s abundantly clear from the predominant rhythms why it’s called bounce.

Yglesias

Pining For White Supremacy

Gerald Seib has an article about how the real problem with the Senate isn’t the filibuster, it’s polarization. This is a widely held sentiment, and I think it’s almost never expressed by people who would favor returning the South to an apartheid system, but it just can’t be emphasized enough that the rise of well-sorted political parties is a well-understood phenomenon, it is a return to the historical norm, and its cause is equal rights for black people:

House_and_senate_polar_46109 1

Again, to be clear, none of the (many) people who you hear wandering the streets of Washington DC pining for bipartisanship of yore actually think it would be better for the South to become a one-party state dominated by white supremacists who enforce their rule with systematic terrorist violence. But the existence of such a system is, as a matter of fact, the reason we used to have a relatively unpolarized US Congress. To substantially depolarize Congress, you need some systemic change that’s comparable in magnitude—messing around with who has dinner where or how often people fly home is just far too puny.

I can think of basically two viable responses to the current situation. One would be to change how the legislature operates to make its rules better-suited to an era in which well-sorted parties is the rule—i.e., 50 votes and you win. Another would be some kind of substantial alteration in the electoral system (IRV, perhaps) that shook up the two main parties.

Security

Do Former Chalabi Supporters Have Any Credibility On Who Is/Isn’t An ‘Iranian Agent’?

ScheunemannChalabiThe political scene in Iraq has been roiled over the past several weeks by the controversial decision by Iraq’s Accountability and Justice Commission to ban some 500 political candidates from competing in the March elections because of past ties to the Ba’athist Party. Sunnis have expressed fears that next month’s elections will leave them further disenfranchised, and many suspect Iran of a central role in the banning.

Today, my friend Eli Lake reports that Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, has “accused Ali Faisal al-Lami, the executive director of the Accountability and Justice Commission along with Ahmad Chalabi, the panel’s chairman, of being ‘clearly influenced by Iran.’”

Gen. Odierno said both men, according to intelligence reports, were in close contact with Abu-Mahdi al-Muhandis, the top Iraqi adviser to Iran’s Quds Force commander. The Quds Force comprises Iran’s unconventional military units, which have orchestrated anti-U.S. paramilitary and political operations in Iraq. [...]

Francis Brooke, the Washington adviser to Mr. al-Lami’s patron, Mr. Chalabi, said Gen. Odierno showed a “profound lack of understanding of Iraqi politics.”

Mr. Brooke added, “Every senior Iraqi politician, particularly the Kurdish and Shi’ite parties, has diplomatic relations with Iran and concerning Ali Faisal al-Lami, Gen. Odierno acknowledges that he had no evidence to demonstrate this charge. The Iraqi National Congress and the Iraqi parliament has complete confidence in Ali Faisal al-Lami’s management of the Accountability and Justice Commission.”

Yes, it’s true: Iran has a lot of influence in Iraq. This has been the case for a long time, but the people who got us into Iraq seem to have been the last to learn it. And while Gen. Odierno’s assertion of Chalabi’s Iran connections is noteworthy for its bluntness, it’s certainly not news that Ahmad Chalabi himself has close ties to Iran.

It’s important to remember here what a darling Chalabi used to be of the neoconservatives, and what a central role Chalabi played in providing false intelligence that fed the neoconservatives’ case for the invasion of Iraq, even after the CIA had determined Chalabi to be untrustworthy. Neocon operatives like Brooke (*) and Randy Scheunemann (who’s now serving as Sarah Palin’s foreign policy adviser) squired him from office to office on Capitol Hill as he told and retold his lies about nonexistent Iraqi WMDs and Saddam’s nonexistent alliance with Al Qaeda.

Even after the invasion, after it became clear that there were no WMD and no Saddam-Al Qaeda alliance, and that, despite his claims of a massive following, Chalabi had no genuine political base in Iraq, the neocons — such as Michael Rubin and Eli Lake himself — continued to promote him as Iraq’s savior. That became a lot harder after Chalabi’s party — which ran on the slogan “We Liberated Iraq!” — received a pathetic 0.36 percent of the vote in Iraq’s December 2005 elections, not even enough to secure a single seat for Chalabi himself.

Eventually, Chalabi was disavowed by the Bush administration, judged to be an “agent of influence” of Iran, suspected of having tipped off the Iranians that the U.S. had broken secret Iranian codes, as well as passing Iraqi government documents to Iranian agents. The Defense Intelligence Agency concluded — in 2004 — that “Iranian intelligence has been manipulating the United States through Chalabi.” Needless to say, none of this speaks very well of the judgment of Chalabi’s neoconservative fans. Read more

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