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With Immigration Low On List Of Tea Party Priorities, Is Nativism Really On the Rise?

amnestyLast week, Ezra Klein pointed out that tea parties haven’t focused very much on immigration and that “nativism has been, to me, the dog that didn’t bark.” Gabriel Arana responded to Klein’s piece, maintaining his original assertion that “growing nativism among members of Congress reflects a society-wide trend” that could derail immigration reform efforts. A recently released set of national surveys by the Winston Group confirms Klein’s first observation. Winston Group found that those who associate with the tea party movement are primarily motivated by economic and fiscal concerns and that cracking down on immigration ranks low on their priority list, as it does for most Americans. Noah Kristula-Green of the Frum Forum reports on the findings:

If Obama decides to tackle immigration reform next, some have wondered what the tea party response would be. Interestingly, it may not be an issue for most rank and file tea party members. When asked whether immigration was an issue that motivated how they voted, tea parties responded that it was just as low on their priority list as the average population. They also gave “cracking down on immigration” as a “best” way to create jobs nearly same weight as the average voter—which is to say, not as much weight as tax cuts or developing energy resources.

Implication: Some have argued that if the Democrats move to immigration reform, that the tea party movement will reveal itself to be driven by anti-immigrant sentiment. The data does not suggest that this should be expected.

It’s understandable why Arana would reach a different conclusion. There is undeniably a nativist strain present within the tea party movement, as evidenced by the 18% who favor cracking down on immigration as a way to create jobs. Anti-immigrant groups like NumbersUSA have been working hard to mimic the tea party movement and to foster any nativist tendencies to promote their own agenda. Americans for Legal Immigration PAC went as far as to stage a series of poorly attended copy cat tea party protests against immigration and is in the process of planning more.

Yet, according to the report, tea party followers aren’t latching on. Polling shows that they prioritize job creation, deficit, spending, and tax issues specifically because “they are seen as a means to reducing unemployment and improving the economy.” Roy Beck, director of one of the largest anti-immigrant groups, has been encouraging his members to frame their message in fiscal and economic terms. However, the fact that most tea party supporters still don’t see immigration as a hot issue suggests that Beck has, so far, been largely unconvincing. Furthermore, FreedomWorks chairman and tea party strategist Dick Armey has outright opposed letting nativists under the tea party “umbrella” and has suggested that doing so would be poisonous to the movement.

However, contrary to what Klein suggests, nativism doesn’t just bark — it also bites. While nativists represent a minority, they represent a loud minority that manages to make enough noise to motivate hateful acts of violence and scare politicians into crafting bad policy. As Klein points out, the health care debate ended quietly for the nativists, but that’s mostly because immigrants were thrown under the bus when things started to heat up. Meanwhile, hate crime statistics against immigrants and anyone who looks like an immigrant demonstrate a troubling upward trend. Research has suggested that unrestrained immigrant-bashing on behalf of nativists is largely responsible for the rise.

Ultimately, Klein aptly observes that the immigration issue has failed to incite the tea party movement as a whole. He also correctly points out that the American public has not undergone a broader shift towards a negative opinion of immigrants. (In fact, the majority of Americans, across party lines, support comprehensive immigration reform which includes a path to legalization). The Winston Group’s findings further suggest that though nativism is certainly a reality, most Americans — including many tea party supporters — are above it.

Yglesias

McDonnell Moving Virginia Backwards, Celebrating Slavery and Rebellion

bob_mcdonnell2

Anita Kumar and Rosalind Helderman report that Virginia is once again a red state:

Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) has quietly declared April 2010 Confederate History Month, bringing back a designation in Virginia that his two Democratic predecessors — Mark Warner and Tim Kaine — refused to do.

Sen. A. Donald McEachin (D-Richmond) said he was “stunned” to learn of McDonnell’s decision and even more stunned that the proclamation did not include any reference to slavery. “It’s offensive,” he said.

The language can be seen on the governor’s Web site.

It’s important to note that this isn’t simply someone going along with a longstanding abhorrent bit of symbolism that’s traditional in his state. Mark Warner, rightly, broke this tradition and refused to grant wink-nod symbolic affirmation of the idea of unleashing massive violence in defense of the principle that white people should own black people as property. Tim Kaine upheld the new status quo. And now McDonnell’s ondoing it, which is offensive on its own terms and will also raise the political cost to any future governor who wants to do the right thing.

In other news, since the RNC is determined to stick with Michael Steele come what may, I’m sure black people will start loving Republicans soon.

Alyssa

Just When I’m Getting Sour About Tina Fey…

She comes back and charms the hell out of me with this Jonathan Ross interview:

It helps that Ross is a good interviewer (I particularly liked his description of Alec Baldwin as “magisterial,” which is perfect), and the sort of grateful, hopeful, British perspective on the show made me see it a more forgiving light.  Baldwin sounds like a delight to work with.  And I’m totally excited to see Fey host SNL: as much as I’m annoyed by the “Tina Fey/Liz Lemon is unattractive and weird” thread running through the show, I still am happy that Fey took the risk to leave SNL, go up against Aaron Sorkin, win, and now is coming back as a star in her own right.  That narrative remains awesome.

Politics

Virginia Gov. McDonnell proclaims April ‘Confederate History Month.’

Confederate flag at McDonnell campaign booth, 2009The Washington Post reports today that Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell has issued a proclamation that “quietly declared April 2010 Confederate History Month, bringing back a designation in Virginia that his two Democratic predecessors — Mark Warner and Tim Kaine — refused to do.” According to the Lynchburg News and Advance, McDonnell’s proclamation “comes in advance of an upcoming anniversary — it was on April 17, 1861 that Virginia seceded from the union.” The proclamation makes no mention of slavery, but does call on Virginians “to understand the sacrifices of the Confederate leaders, soldiers and citizens during the period of the Civil War, and to recognize how our history has led to our present“:

WHEREAS, April is the month in which the people of Virginia joined the Confederate States of America in a four year war between the states for independence that concluded at Appomattox Courthouse; and

WHEREAS, Virginia has long recognized her Confederate history, the numerous civil war battlefields that mark every region of the state, the leaders and individuals in the Army, Navy and at home who fought for their homes and communities and Commonwealth in a time very different than ours today; and

WHEREAS, it is important for all Virginians to reflect upon our Commonwealth’s shared history, to understand the sacrifices of the Confederate leaders, soldiers and citizens during the period of the Civil War, and to recognize how our history has led to our present;

The Post notes that “Republican governors George Allen and Jim Gilmore made similar proclamations. But in 2002, Warner broke with their action, calling such proclamations a ‘lightning rod’ that does not help bridge divisions between whites and blacks in Virginia.”

Climate Progress

UCS Scientist vs Joe Bastardi on tonight’s Colbert Report

UPDATE:  You can watch the video here.  It’s somewhere between pointless and unhelpful.

UCS climate scientist Brenda Ekwurzel goes head to head with a skeptical meteorologist during “couples counseling” tonight on the Colbert Report (Comedy Central, 11:30 p.m. EDT).

And that skeptical meteorologist would be none other than InAccuweather’s long-range conspiracy theorist Joe Bastardi!

Good luck Brenda!  And no, I don’t think that “marriage” can be saved.

For people who haven’t read my various debunkings of Bastardi, start here:  Joe Bastardi can’t read a temperature anomaly map and so spins another conspiracy theory and Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi admits, “Earth continues warmest winter since satellite measurements started” and “Feb should be warmest on record!!!”

Yglesias

America’s Thin Rental Market

Felix Salmon has a long post reproducing many charts from a Fannie Mae document demonstrating that the American romance with homeownership is far from over. Apparently 70 percent of the public believes that buying a home is a safe investment, almost as high as the number (74) who think a savings account is safe, and way more than the number (50) who think “buying government or corporate bonds” is safe. I’d be interested to know what efficient markets theory has to say about widespread and persistent misperceptions about this kind of thing.

At any rate, it seems that in America it’s always a good time to buy a house:

gt 1

I think this, however, is probably the most important part of Salmon’s post:

It’s worth noting, in this context, that the top two reasons to buy a home are that “it means having a good place to raise children and provide them with a good education”; and “you have a physical structure where you and your family feel safe”. Reading between the lines here, I think that what we’re seeing is the effect of rental ghettoes, and the fact that neighborhoods with high levels of homeownership tend to be safer, and have better schools, than neighborhoods which are mostly owned by landlords. That’s a negative aspect of homeownership, in the grand scheme of things, but it’s clearly here to stay: no one’s anticipating a more sensible world where it’s commonplace to be able to rent a house in a good school district.

Right. If you first immerse yourself in anti-homeownership arguments and then go out and look at the actual country, renting a home turns out to be surprisingly impractical in a variety of situations. Outside of New York City, the market for rental properties that you can confidently stay in long-term (not just a house whose owner is living someplace else and might kick you out of next year) is very thin, and concentrated on serving the segment of the population that doesn’t have the means to put a downpayment together. If we could shift off that equilibrium—something that would start to happen if we began to phase out the mortgage interest tax deduction—we’d do ourselves a lot of good.

Climate Progress

TV Weather Guy Dan Satterfield Is Not Afraid To Talk About Climate Change

Dan SatterfieldTelevision meteorologists and weather forecasters — the primary source for many Americans for science news — are predominantly skeptical of the science of manmade climate change. In fact, a recent poll by George Mason University found that a quarter of TV weather guys are outright conspiracy theorists, believing that the scientific consensus is a hoax. However, television meteorologist Dan Satterfield of WHNT in Huntsville, AL has written why his colleagues should be explaining science, not denying it:

Scientists are taught to be skeptics. Show us the data. Being skeptical is good scientific practice but ignoring a mountain of evidence while giving credit to claims in political journals instead is not scientific skepticism. It’s politics. This is why I am not afraid to talk about climate change. I think I’m obligated to do so when there is overwhelming evidence we are tampering with the very air conditioner of our planet. I have all the world’s major scientific organizations backing me up as well.

Satterfield — a real meteorologist with a background in atmospheric physics — was on the advisory panel for the George Mason poll. He was “absolutely floored” that 26% of the respondents believe global warming is a scam, and recognizes that some resistance to the science of climate change may come from the inability of models to forecast long-term weather:

It is very difficult to forecast the weather for the next 7 days and perhaps the idea of talking about the weather 100 years ahead is the problem. I used to feel exactly the same way. I’ve since learned that climate and weather are two very different things.

The climate science community needs to work hard on explaining this to TV weather people and the public at large. Weathercasters on the other hand need to take a page from good journalists and learn to set aside political beliefs and really study the science. Especially if they are going to talk about it on air. They have an obligation to do so.

“Peer review and scientific method have taken us from living in log cabins to exploring the outer planets in two centuries,” Satterfield continues. “The great thing about the way science works is that the knowledge is built upon those that have come before.”

He then demolishes a series of myths about the science of climate change, noting that peer-reviewed science has dealt with questions such as the effect of the sun, the unprecedented pattern and scale of warming, data reliability, and the “dozen other independent climate proxies that all show warming.”

“The world of science is waiting,” Satterfield writes. “All you have to do is write it up and submit it to a peer reviewed journal. That’s how science works. Political spin does not, but science does.”

There have been critics of the scientific understanding of global warming for decades, but over that time the consensus has grown. Satterfield rightly recognizes that what’s left are not skeptics, but “nutters” who believe in a giant conspiracy:

So we are left with the giant conspiracy to prevent the truth from being published. The claim is thousands of scientists around the world are all working together to prevent the “truth” from being published. The great thing about a conspiracy is this. If someone proves it wrong, you can just claim the proof is part of the conspiracy! Every newsroom gets these conspiracy calls every day. Castro shot Kennedy, Area 51, contrails are really chemical mind control, etc. News folks just call them nutters. Twenty people can’t keep a secret, much less thousands. Get real.

Dan recently finished a Masters degree in Earth Science, is a full member of the American Meteorological Society and has also been elected a member of the International Association of Broadcast Meteorologists. He has held the AMS Seal of approval since 1985, and is an AMS Certified Meteorologist. His blog is the Wild Wild Science Journal, and he is on Twitter as @danwhnt.

Politics

Gingrich Bashes Health Care Reform In The Same Breath That He Laments Deaths From Coal

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich went on NBC’s Today Show this morning to talk about health care and politics, but before doing so, he took a moment to praise the network’s coverage of the mining disaster in West Virginia and asked Americans to pray for the victims’ families. He said it was tough to go from that story to talking about politics…but he nevertheless managed to immediately begin attacking the health care bill without skipping a beat:

GINGRICH: Well, let me just — if I could — take 10 seconds to say I really was touched by your coverage just now of West Virginia, and I really hope every American will take their governor’s request seriously and pray for those families. You did a tremendous job this morning, and I found it very touching.

I think on politics — and it’s hard to shift, frankly, from that story to politics — First of all, this is a really bad bill. The more we learn about it, the worse it is. You say to the average American, do you really want to have 16,000 more IRS agents as a brand new health police? They’re going to say no.

Watch it:

While Gingrich’s messages are often inaccurate and misleading, his latest rhetoric is especially unfortunate on a day highlighting the dangers of coal.

Coal mining remains one of the most dangerous professions, but not only because of tragic disasters like the one at Massey Energy’s Upper Big Branch Mine yesterday, where 25 people died and four remain missing:

The American Lung Association reports that there are 24,000 premature deaths every year due to coal power plant pollution. In addition, ALA estimates that coal pollution causes over 550,000 asthma attacks, 38,000 heart attacks and 12,000 hospital admissions.

– A report by Physicians for Social Responsibility found that coal combustion releases mercury, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and dozens of other substances known to be hazardous to human health. These coal pollutants are associated with increased congestive heart failure, lung cancer, infant mortality, stunted lung development, and Ischemic stroke, among other diseases.

Nineteen percent of West Virginians lacked health insurance in 2009, underscoring why making health care coverage for all Americans — even those who have pre-existing conditions from working in dangerous jobs or living in environmentally unsafe areas — is so essential. Nevertheless, the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce, which is largely backed by the coal industry, aggressively fought against health care reform.

Update

Chris Bowers writes, “What is perhaps more shocking is that 29 workers dying on the job in one day is actually only about twice the daily average in America, and that about 50 coal miners in China die on the job every week.”


Update

,Matt Yglesias has more sobering data on the health impacts of the coal industry.

Yglesias

Political Conflict Isn’t About Free Markets

businessman 1

I’ve been waiting for about a week for an example to make this point, but couldn’t think of one, and along rides Tim Lee to the rescue:

To see why [right-of-center hostility to unlicensed spectrum] is wrong, it’s worth thinking about the debate over carbon emissions. In a sense, this is also a debate over scarcity. One side favors treating the atmosphere’s ability to absorb carbon as a commons (Jerry [Brito] would probably call it an “open access” regime, but I use the “common” terminology), allowing anyone to emit carbon dioxide without legal restrictions. The other side believes that this will lead to a tragedy of the commons, and so they favor a property-rights-oriented approach. The weird thing is that the left and right in the carbon debate are on the opposite sides from the positions they occupy in the spectrum debate. In the spectrum debate, a commons is considered a “left-wing” position, while property rights are considered “right-wing.” In contrast, in the carbon debate you find right-wingers advocating a “carbon commons” while left-wingers advocate a property-like regime called cap and trade.

I think this is very insightful. Where it goes wrong, though, is in concluding that there’s something “weird” about this inversion. I think if you look at political conflict you’ll see that attitudes toward property rights are really all over the map. I like the idea of allowing people to build more densely, which would be a form of strengthening property rights, whereas Cato’s Randal O’Toole doesn’t like this idea at all. The main difference between left and right with regard to property rights is simply that the right is invested in a lot of rhetoric about markets and property rights and the left is invested in different historical and rhetorical tropes.

To borrow an idea from Robin Hanson, I think it’s useful to think about political conflict in terms of valorized figures. On the right, you see a lot of valorization of businessmen. On the left, you see a lot of valorization of pushy activists who want to do something businessmen don’t like. Formally, the right is committed to ideas about free markets and the left is committed to ideas about economic equality. But in practice, political conflict much more commonly breaks down around “some stuff some businessmen want to do” vs “some stuff businessmen hate” rather than anything about markets or property rights per se. Consequently, on the left people sometimes fall into the trap of being patsies for rent-seeking mom & pop operators when poor people would benefit more from competition from a corporate bohemoth.

Or iff you look at the energy sector, you’ll see that businessmen want to push property rights for the stuff that’s in the ground (coal, oil, whatever) and a commons model for the stuff (particulates, CO2) that’s in the air. You can call that “inconsistent” if you like, but obviously it’s perfectly consistent with what coal and oil executives want! And those industries are the most loyal supporters of “right” politics around.

Justice

British Leader Continues To Fumble Gay Outreach Effort, Forgets Planned Reference In Speech

Conservative British Leader David Cameron

Conservative British Leader David Cameron

In Britain, Tory leader David Cameron’s efforts to reach out to gay voters have become almost comical in their failure. Last month, Cameron sat for an interview with a gay magazine to promote the party’s alleged move to the left on social and equality issues, but paused the interview after he fumbled an answer about the Tories’ voting record on gay equality. Then, a Tory MP was secretly recorded as saying that “people who ran bed and breakfasts in their homes should ‘have the right’ to turn away homosexual couples,” and now the the UK Metro is reporting that Cameron “left out a reference to gay people he was supposed to make in his speech kick-starting the Tories’ election campaign.”

The original text of the speech, which was distributed to reporters, included a direct mention of gays and other minorities, but Cameron forgot to mention the group during delivery:

AS PREPARED: ‘We’re fighting this election for the Great Ignored – young, old, rich, poor, black, white, gay, straight.’

AS DELIVERED: ‘They may be black or white, they may be rich or poor, they may live in the town or country.’

The omission comes as Cameron hopes to convince voters that the conservatives have changed on issues of civil equality. “The party has changed and I think all center-right parties, all conservative parties have to go on this journey and I think we’ve probably gone a bit further and faster than some conservative parties in other countries and there won’t be any turning back. So I understand the concern, but I think the change that’s happened is real, lasting and irreversible,” Cameron said in that ill-fated interview with Gay Times magazine.

The party’s fumbles, however, are undermining Cameron’s new rhetorical pledge and the party’s popularity among gay voters. “According to UK gay news source Pink News, support for the Conservative party among gay voters has fallen 5% in the past month.” Today, Prime Minister Gordon Brown confirmed that the general election will be held on May 6.

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