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Is Obama’s Anti-Terrorism Approach Producing Dumber Terrorists?

By all accounts, the work of federal investigators has been pretty effective in the wake of the discovery of the explosives-laden Nissan Pathfinder in New York’s Times Square on Saturday night, tracking and arresting suspect Faisal Shahzad within 53 hours of his having allegedly parked the truck. ABC also reports that the High-Value Interrogation Group, or HIG, is involved in the interrogation of Shahzad, and Attorney General Eric Holder said earlier that Shahzad has admitted his role in the failed plot.

But the fact still remains that we got lucky. As with the Christmas underwear bomber, the thing that averted a major terrorist atrocity was the incompetence of the terrorist himself. And Philip Shenon reports that the last-minute arrest of Shahzad — he was taken off a Dubai-bound plane that had already begun to pull away from the airport gate — “was carried out in large part in response to information from the Dubai-based airline, Emirates, which became suspicious after Shahzad’s contacts with the airline in the hours before he boarded the flight.”

A federal law-enforcement official in New York said he “took heart” at the fact that the car bombing was so badly bungled, leaving police in Manhattan with easy-to-follow clues to the identity of the bomber, including the intact Nissan Pathfinder abandoned in Times Square.

If he got terrorist training, it was apparently pretty lousy training,” the official said.

Obviously, counting on the stupidity of terrorists is not a sufficient anti-terrorism policy, but of course there are a whole host of other tactics being used by the Obama administration to track and put pressure terrorist organizations, and I think it’s fair to assume that these tactics and policies bear some measure of credit for the poorer players that extremists have been able to field lately. By tightening border controls and working more closely with allied intelligence agencies to track extremists, the U.S. shrinks the pool of potential infiltrators, resulting in far slimmer pickings for terrorist commanders, forcing them to settle for some of the drawer’s duller knives. It also makes training those infiltrators far more complicated and costly, resulting in cut corners that in turn result in botched attacks.

Shrinking the pool of potential terrorists — both in terms of pressure applied via greater international intelligence cooperation and in avoiding needlessly belligerent approaches that alienate allies and radicalize enemies — has long been a key element in progressive anti-terrorism policy. I don’t think we know enough yet about Shahzad and those he worked with to start claiming any sort of policy victory, but it’s very much worth considering whether the more law enforcement-focused, less acting-like-a-jerk-to-the-world approach that Obama has brought to anti-terrorism is resulting in dumber, less effective terrorists.

It’s also important to understand — as many of our professional bedwetting hysterics refuse to — the difference between intent and capability. Whatever these self-styled holy warriors may say about their intentions against the United States, actually committing acts of terrorism is difficult. That’s not a reason for complacency, but it is one factor in the evolving terrorism landscape that receives relatively little attention.

Politics

More Americans have a positive reaction to ‘progressive’ than ‘capitalism.’

Despite Fox News host Glenn Beck’s conspiracy theory about progressivism being a “cancer” that is secretly plotting to destroy the country, Americans have a largely positive view of the word “progressive.” Meanwhile, “capitalism” appears to not have fared so well following the Great Recession. A new Pew poll of nine political words and phrases found that a strong majority — 68 percent — of Americans have a positive reaction to the word “progressive,” while only 52 percent have the same response to “capitalism”:

Poll2

Of course, capitalism and progressivism are not opposites, but perhaps Americans view one as the cause of the economic crisis, and the other as the solution. ThinkProgress has noted that the tea party movement hasn’t proven popular in recent polls either, with socialism and even the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) receiving more favorable ratings.

Yglesias

Esther Duflo’s TED Talk

Here’s French economist and recent Bates Medal winner Esther Duflo talking about her work, which focuses on trying to do experimental work to understand what sorts of development strategies and aid programs actually work:

This is crucially important stuff. On the one hand, if we had a better idea of what worked, the aid money (both from governments and charities) we currently spend would do a lot more good. On the other hand, if people were more confident that we had workable strategies, it would probably be easier to convince people to be generous.

Climate Progress

Marine Scientist: Site Of BP Disaster Is A Fertile Spawning Area

The Wonk Room is blogging and tweeting live from the Gulf Coast.

The epicenter of the growing BP oil disaster is “exactly” where scientists have found bluefin tuna spawning. On April 20, the Deepwater Horizon rig run by oil giant BP in the deep waters 40 miles off the southeast tip of Louisiana exploded, killing 11 and unleashing a torrent of oil from the sea bed. Ichthyologist Bruce Comyns, a research scientist at the University of Southern Mississippi’s Gulf Coast Research Laboratory in Ocean Springs, MS, told the Wonk Room he has found bluefin tuna larvae “right in the vicinity of that ongoing discharge”:

COMYNS: We’ve also collected bluefin tuna larvae not just in the edge of the Loop Current, we’ve also collected them in the northern Gulf, in the vicinity of the mouth of the Mississippi River, maybe 40, 50 miles off.

Q: That sounds like where the spill took place.

COMYNS: That’s exactly where the spill took place. We have collected bluefin tuna larvae right in the vicinity of that ongoing discharge.

Watch it:

This is “the worst time” of year that this disaster could have begun, Dr. Comyns said, as this is the peak of the spawning and nesting season for marine wildlife in the Gulf, from fish to turtles to dolphins. As he has done in previous years, Dr. Comyns was planning to head out into the Gulf of Mexico to sample larval fishes from the edges of the Loop Current — a research trip that now has newly critical and disturbing import.

Professor Hans Graber of the University of Miami told the Associated Press that it’s “a matter of when, not if” the oil cloud reaches the Loop Current, the primary spawning ground in the Gulf for large pelagic fishes. BP is injecting dispersants directly into the underwater oil stream, limiting the slick at the surface, but increasing the contamination underwater. Protect the Ocean’s John Taylor reports that BP is using a dispersant named Corexit 9500, which has a “toxicity to early life stages of fish, crustaceans and mollusks” four times greater than petroleum.

Yglesias

Bubbles Are Hard to Burst

ship-of-fools1 1

Henry Farrell’s review of Fintan O’Toole’s Ship of Fools: How Stupidity and Corruption Sank the Celtic Tiger helps us understand why it’s so unlikely that government officials will do a good job of “popping” asset price bubbles:

As a recent report by three National University of Ireland economists emphasizes, Ireland’s financial institutions did not fall prey to exotic financial instruments, but to lax regulation and bad business judgment. The report is tactfully silent regarding the reasons why Irish regulators made “obviously flawed” judgments, although its mention of the fact that “most large property developers in Ireland have been very closely connected to the ruling political party, Fianna Fáil,” offers some clues. [...]

A 1973 report argued that local authorities ought to be able to purchase land compulsorily at current market value plus 25 percent to stop speculators from manipulating the market and making windfall gains. Government after government agreed with this proposal in principle, throughout the 1970s, ’80s, ’90s, and 2000s—but curiously, implementing legislation was never introduced. In O’Toole’s description, Fianna Fáil “would sooner have personally insulted the Pope, Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa” than offended the land speculators who helped fund their party. By the early 2000s, not only Fianna Fáil but the state itself needed to keep the property market buoyant. If the party ever stopped, both would face serious holes in their finances.

Once a bubble collapses, it’s easy for the bystander majority to adopt a smug attitude toward the people who got most in over their heads. But as long as the boom is ongoing, the circle of beneficiaries is quite large. High stock prices in the late 1990s and high home prices in the mid-2000s undergirded a lot of economic activity that translated into more jobs and higher compensation quite broadly. And this all helps make incumbent politicians look like geniuses. Recall not only Bill Clinton’s high approval ratings circa 1999 but also the way every nineties governor was portrayed as a brilliant pragmatist who’d managed to create jobs through a savvy combination of tax cuts and targeted investments in education and infrastructure. Who’s going to pull the plug on that?

Yglesias

Phoenix Suns Denounce AZ Immigration Law

File-SteveNash3

Here’s a strong statement from Robert Sarver on behalf of the Phoenix Suns denouncing Arizona’s new immigration law:

“The frustration with the federal government’s failure to deal with the issue of illegal immigration resulted in passage of a flawed state law. However intended, the result of passing this law is that our basic principles of equal rights and protection under the law are being called into question, and Arizona’s already struggling economy will suffer even further setbacks at a time when the state can ill-afford them.”

Phoenix’s star, Steve Nash, is of course an immigrant from Canada. On the team they’re playing in the second round Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, the second- and third-best players on the team are also immigrants, from Argentina and France. In general, it says good things about the National Basketball Association that foreigners with top-notch basketball skills generally want to come here and play. And the flow of foreign talent to our shores makes the NBA a better product—indeed, an iconic global brand that’s marketed internationally as a U.S. export.

Politics

Phoenix Suns will wear ‘Los Suns’ jerseys as partly a political statement against ‘flawed’ state law.

The Phoenix Suns basketball franchise announced that they will be wearing “Los Suns” jerseys on Wednesday night for Game 2 of their playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs. The game will be played in Phoenix. Team owner Robert Sarver, a Republican, said the jerseys will “honor our Latino community and the diversity of our league, the state of Arizona and our nation.” Sarver also made clear in a statement that the selection of the Spanish-language jersey — which will coincide with Cinco de Mayo — is a political statement against Arizona’s new anti-immigrant law:

The frustration with the federal government’s failure to deal with the issue of illegal immigration resulted in passage of a flawed state law. However intended, the result of passing this law is that our basic principles of equal rights and protection under the law are being called into question, and Arizona’s already struggling economy will suffer even further setbacks at a time when the state can ill-afford them.

Update

Matt Yglesias notes that the Suns’ Steve Nash and the Spurs’ Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are all immigrants. He writes, “In general, it says good things about the National Basketball Association that foreigners with top-notch basketball skills generally want to come here and play. And the flow of foreign talent to our shores makes the NBA a better product — indeed, an iconic global brand that’s marketed internationally as a U.S. export.”


Update

,In a statement made moments ago, Nash called the law “very misguided”:

I think the law is very misguided. I think it is unfortunately to the detriment to our society and our civil liberties and I think it is very important for us to stand up for things we believe in,” Nash said of the bill. “I think the law obviously can target opportunities for racial profiling. Things we don’t want to see and don’t need to see in 2010.”


Update

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Alyssa

There Is No Glee In Lima

I know some of y’all are probably bored with my Glee-induced distress right now.  But I wrote up some thoughts for The Atlantic on what the folks running other television shows could learn from Glee‘s mistakes.  Of the peeves I have, I think the one I’m most vexed by is the lack of attention to setting:

One of the most appealing things about Glee in the beginning was the decision to set it not in one of the cities that are the corners of the Hollywood Triangle—New York, Miami, and Los Angeles—but rather in small-town Lima, Ohio. And the show was clear about the economic circumstances of both the school and the characters. The school district’s strained budget meant the nascent show choir was in believable peril and fueled intelligent early plotlines like the school’s inability to finance a handicapped-accessible bus to accommodate Artie, a member of the choir who uses a wheelchair. His teammates’ initial willingness to accept those circumstances, and his pointed explanation of their prejudices, fueled one of the show’s best episodes.


Similarly, the individual characters’ financial straits fueled believable plot developments. Will Schuester, the choir’s likeable director, took on part-time work as a janitor to support his family, only to find himself in closer proximity than he expected with the school’s pretty guidance counselor. Finn, the football team’s quarterback, also needed extra money to to help support his pregnant girlfriend, Quinn, but was unable to find a job. So Rachel, the show choir’s star, swallowed her jealousy of their relationship to find a novel solution to his plight.

I really do hope Glee pulls itself together.  I’m definitely open to being won back.

Health

Fast Food Franchises Complain Health Care Law Will Increase Their Costs

bigmacextravaluemealThe new health care law includes a free rider provision that assess employers with 50 or more employees “that do not offer coverage and have at least one full-time employee who receives a premium tax credit, a fee of $2,000 per full-time employee (excluding the first 30 employees from the assessment). Employers that do offer coverage but have “at least one full-time employee receiving a premium tax credit” will have to pay the lesser of $3,000 for each employee receiving a premium credit or $2,000 for each full-time employee.

Under the law, businesses that don’t offer coverage and pay wages that can qualify an employee to receive tax credits will incur additional costs, and fast food establishments are already complaining about the “increased tab.” Franchisees estimate the new federal health care bill “could cost them as much as $55,000 per restaurant annually,” Chicago Business reports:

That’s a significant hit for franchisees, whose restaurants generate about $2.4 million in revenue and $300,000 in pre-tax profit, on average. And it could hamper the Oak Brook company’s campaign to persuade franchisees to remodel thousands of locations in the next five years. With their profits reduced, the restaurant owners are likely to raise prices and resist McDonald’s push to offer promotions and discounts to boost sales. [...]

Mark Kalinowski, an analyst in New York at Janney Capital Markets, last month surveyed 16 franchisees about the health care bill and found the average expected cost was $55,000 per restaurant and the median response was $50,000. He estimates the new law would “wipe out” about 15% to 20% of profits.”

Part of this is likely overblown. Since the free rider/individual mandate requirement does not go into effect until 2014, nobody knows what the real impact of reform will be and some restaurants may find it cheaper to offer coverage to their employees in the exchanges or associations than pay the penalty. Secondly, having healthier workers serving and cooking fast food seems like a win-win for everyone involved, as does the possible increase in fast-food operating costs.

Fast food restaurants could conceivably respond to the higher costs by producing cheaper, even lower quality foods, or they could, as the article suggests, increase prices and stop renovating the space to attract younger children. If the latter is the case, then health reform could act as a “tax” that discourages consumption of the kind of food that increases chronic health care costs. That, seems to me, will be a sign that reform is working.

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