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Alyssa

Amiable Nonsense

Time travel movies invariably make very little sense, and Source Code looks goofier and more arbitrary than is average:

I mean, why would you build a technology that lets someone go into dead people? And why for the last 8 minutes of their lives? How do you not die if you’re in that person when they die?  Would a government agency really think it’s acceptable collateral damage to sacrifice a train-full of people to prevent a theoretical future attack? Wouldn’t you have more people working on it than this?

That said, I would watch Vera Farmiga and Jeffrey Wright in pretty much anything. In a weird way, I think  Farmiga has a lot in common with Tilda Swinton. They’re both supremely cool actresses when they want to be. Farmiga’s not as much of an awesome acting alien as Swinton is, she’s somewhat more approachable. But she’s definitely a woman who can plausibly cut dead George Clooney, or run a sketchy military installation without a hair falling out of place. I’d love to see her really fencing with someone like Renee Russo did in The Thomas Crown Affair. We need more grown-up movies, and more smolder before the conflagration.

Yglesias

The Art of Masterful Inaction

Greg Sargent wants progressives to weigh in on how the White House should respond to the expected ferocious opposition from the GOP in congress:

I got an expert to lay out a roadmap the other day. Former White House chief of staff John Podesta has also sketched out an extensive game plan. The gist of their advice: He should go full throttle on his own where possible — executive orders, rulemaking powers, and so forth. Meanwhile, he should lay down a clear vision and agenda in the full expectation that Republicans will oppose it, and use the presidential bully pulpit to wage a massive communications offensive hammering them relentlessly for their opposition and intransigence.

This is meant in the spirit of provoking debate more than anything else. It would be interesting to hear from some of our sharpest online voices: How should Obama proceed?

It should surprise anyone to learn that I largely agree with my boss and, indeed, CAP’s team of policy experts has produced a detailed examination of things the President can do in terms of what I’ve called “governing from the White House.”

Something slightly distinctive from these ideas that I would emphasize are the President’s myriad opportunities to not do anything. Scott Brown and Ron Wyden have an interesting idea about state waivers under the Affordable Care Act, and I think it’d be brilliant of the White House to do . . . absolutely nothing about this. Let Senator Brown try to build Republican support for it. Maybe he’ll succeed, maybe he’ll fail, maybe it’ll be an interesting intra-caucus fight, maybe nobody will care. Either way, the President will be doing something else and it’s someone else who’ll be associated with the legislative sausage making or the failure of the sausage to get made. Similarly, Senators Coburn and DeMint seem to be interested in provoking a fight over ethanol subsidies. The White House should . . . ignore this. With luck, they’ll succeed. Without luck, they’ll fail. But either way, the President shouldn’t get sucked into a political debate for or against ethanol subsidies.

The important thing is to understand that even though a certain number of Washington DC political professionals regard it warmly, the United States Congress is a widely (and in my view, appropriately) despised institution. The only way to get an ambitious legislative agenda passed is for the President to deeply engage with Congress, but deeply engaging with Congress is politically toxic. With John Boehner as Speaker of the House, no “ambitious legislative agenda” is ever going to pass so the White House should simply check out. Tell reporters to ask members of congress the questions about congress. Keep busy doing other stuff. Give wannabe congressional dealmakers space to make deals. Let congressional jerks go be jerks. If something terrible passes, veto it. Don’t negotiate. If you don’t want rich people’s taxes cut, don’t sign a bill that cuts don’t. Don’t hold meetings. Then go back to working on all the stuff in CAP’s report.

Education

College Graduates In 2008 Borrowed 50 Percent More Than Graduates In 1996

At the same time that America’s educational attainment has been falling, the cost of higher education has been consistently rising. College costs are up 23 percent since 2000, and according to a new report from the Pew Research Center, 2008 graduates borrowed 50 percent more to finance their college educations than did graduates in 1996:

Graduates who received a bachelor’s degree in 2008 borrowed 50% more (in inflation-adjusted dollars) than their counterparts who graduated in 1996, while graduates who earned an associate’s degree or undergraduate certificate in 2008 borrowed more than twice what their counterparts in 1996 had borrowed, according to a new analysis of National Center for Education Statistics data by the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project.

And for those who prefer their data in graph form:

Once you filter out the students that didn’t borrow any money, the average loan amount of borrowing for a bachelor’s degree was about $23,000.

But even those numbers don’t tell the whole story. A growing number of students are going to for-profit colleges — which have been accused of “recruiting students with inflated promises, fudging financial-aid applications and leaving graduates with crushing debt and bleak job prospects” — and the borrowing at those institutions is astronomical.

According to Pew, “one-quarter (24%) of 2008 bachelor’s degree graduates at for-profit schools borrowed more than $40,000, compared with 5% of graduates at public institutions and 14% at not-for-profit schools.” The Obama administration has been trying to craft new rules to govern the for-profit college industry, but Congressional Republicans have been standing in their way.

As former President Bill Clinton said, “higher education institutions are pricing themselves into America’s decline.” The country is already on pace to be short 16 million college education workers by 2025, and the constantly spiraling amount of debt that students have to incur to get a degree is going to make it that much harder to catch up.

Yglesias

The Irrelevance of the Dual Mandate

I was glad to see Ron Paul tell Tim Fernholz that the recent conservative crusade to end the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is “a little bit of grandstanding.”

One thing that the media really ought to ask of the folks pushing this idea is what difference they think it would make in the current circumstances. Just run back the tape of 2008-2010 with a single mandate for price stability. What’s happened during this period is that inflation has been unusually low. And in the Fed’s latest round of economic forecasts they went from predicting future inflation that would be at the low end of the normal range to inflation that would be below the normal range. So given an inflation-only mandate, the right solution would be expansionary monetary policy. And given an inflation-and-unemployment mandate, the right solution is expansionary monetary policy.

The only policy judgment that would make a difference is if you decided that in the 1984-2006 period America was suffering from ruinously high inflation and therefore the Fed should deliberately seek to have a lower inflation rate in the future. My objection to that would be that such a policy would lead to needlessly high unemployment and elevated risks of deflation. But this isn’t a debate about the nature of the Fed’s mandate, it’s a debate about whether or not we had ruinous inflation in the 1984-2006 period. Does Jim DeMint think we did?

Politics

Beck And FreedomWorks Campaign Against Fred Upton: ‘Light Bulbs Are Just The Beginning’

A war is brewing among the right wing over the chairmanship of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, which has jurisdiction over health care, climate policy, and energy policy. Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) is the leading contender, but Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) is seeking a waiver from Republican leadership to retake the gavel, while Reps. John Shimkus (R-IL) and Cliff Stearns (R-FL) are also in the hunt. Although the candidates are lockstep in opposition to the Obama agenda and in their intention to launch witch hunts against climate science, Upton is a relative moderate, having admitted in the past that greenhouse emissions should be reduced. In contrast, Barton — who famously apologized to BP this summer — is fully aligned with the oil and gas industry, with $1,482,630 in lifetime contributions.

Now this internal fight has exploded into a Tea Party battle royale. FreedomWorks, run by veteran GOP lobbyist Dick Armey, has launched Down With Upton, a website attacking “Big Government Republican Fred Upton” for a record “full of votes for more regulation, more spending, and more taxes.” In an email announcing the campaign, FreedomWorks cited Glenn Beck’s warning that “light bulbs are just the beginning”:

Fred Upton, currently considered the front-runner for chairmanship of the critical House Energy and Commerce committee, is far out of step with the Tea Party movement, the GOP and the American people as a whole. You may have heard Glenn Beck talking about Fred Upton introducing a bill to ban incandescent light bulbs in favor of so-called “environmentally-friendly” alternatives. The truth is, Fred Upton has a Big Government record a mile long, and light bulbs are just the beginning.

Upton has already reneged his position on light-bulb efficiency, telling Politico “he’s not afraid to go back after an issue he once supported but that has come under withering assault on the conservative airwaves, including on Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck’s talk shows.”

There was, in fact, no bill to ban incandescent light bulbs. Because of the advanced light-bulb standards Upton helped pass in 2007, “the incandescent bulb is turning into a case study of the way government mandates can spur innovation,” the New York Times reported last year. “There have been more incandescent innovations in the last three years than in the last two decades.”

The Tea Party movement is increasingly attacking American innovation and 21st-century jobs on all fronts: Rush Limbaugh is leading the charge against the breakthrough Chevy Volt, Republican governors are killing high-speed rail, Glenn Beck is cooking up conspiracy theories about smart grid technology, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) is trying to kill the wind industry, and the entire right-wing movement is convinced green jobs are going to destroy the United States economy.

Health

States That Opt-Out Of Medicaid Will Likely Have To Scale Back Benefits, Reimbursements To Providers

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ Edward Park offers this very concise explanation of what would happen if states opt outed of the Medicaid program, sent back the federal matching rate, and tried to stretch their remaining contributions. Remember, these states believe that they can transfer individuals between 100% and 133% of the federal poverty line into the exchanges — where beneficiaries at these income levels would potentially qualify for federal subsidies — and actually save money by covering only the remaining population. Park argues that this will prove impossible:

Since states will be unable to shift most of their Medicaid beneficiaries — and very few of the higher-cost people who constitute the bulk of current spending — into the exchanges, they’d have to somehow make up for the loss of these federal funds.

Unless states were willing to as much as triple their current contributions to the cost of health care, they would have to severely curtail their health care spending.. Many would likely end up eliminating publicly funded coverage for large numbers of low-income children, pregnant women, parents, people with disabilities, and seniors. Most of these people could well end up uninsured

For the people who remained eligible for publicly funded coverage, states might scale back benefits. Possible reductions include benefits that are important to people with disabilities and children with special health care needs, such as mental health care and therapy services, which Medicaid covers but private insurance typically doesn’t. States might also increase cost-sharing charges, which means fewer people would receive needed health care.

And although states have already sharply reduced their reimbursement rates for Medicaid providers (such as doctors and hospitals) to help close their budget deficits, they would have to further lower their rates — at the same time that providers would face rising costs for uncompensated care costs as the ranks of the uninsured swell.

And of course while states would be stretching their state contributions, the federal government would have to spend more to cover the Medicaid population (assuming they could qualify for subsidies). The infusion of Medicaid patients could also tilt the composition of the risk pools and further increase premiums.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) has brought Medicaid opt-out to the national stage, but it’s on the very periphery of conservative thought. Republicans with serious presidential ambitions pay lip service to condemning large federal outlays but have yet to endorse or propose anything this drastic. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), for instance, a fairly cautious and opportunistic presidential contender is not only not talking about leaving Medicaid, but he recently accept $263 million in federal dollars to bolster the state’s program. Perry, for his part, has yet to propose how Texas would efficiently cover the remaining beneficiaries in the Medicaid program.

Yglesias

Small Business Bias

Lydia DePillis has an interesting piece explaining how the new IHOP in Columbia Heights managed to qualify as a small business for the purposes of a small business set-aside rule in the development where it’s located. Basically even though common sense says IHOP is a national chain, it’s in fact organized as franchises, such that the actual business renting the space is a locally owned small business that subcontracts with national IHOP.

So good for them. But the ability of an IHOP franchise to qualify as a locally owned small business highlights the fact that this distinction is somewhat arbitrary—a person musing that she’s like to see more locally owned small businesses in her neighborhood would probably be disappointed to see a McDonald’s, franchise ownership structure notwithstanding. And the widespread bias in favor of small businesses in American discourse makes little sense to me. You often hear this in terms of the fact that small businesses account for the bulk of job creation. But that’s simply because the small business sector is more unstable. Basically if you look at gross figures you see that small businesses account for most of the new jobs and most of the layoffs. It’s neither here nor there.

The other way to look at this is that growth comes primarily from new businesses which are, by definition, small when they start. But the point here is that it’s the process of becoming big that creates the growth and it’s not clear that pro-small bias actually helps this happen. What’s more, with any business you’ve got some consumer surplus and some producer surplus. With a big business, there’s the possibility that unionization can force owners to share a larger slice of the consumer surplus with the workers.

I suspect two things are going on. The main one is a belief that regulatory subsidies to small businesses come mainly at the expense of big businesses. Nobody’s going to cry for the owners and managers of large successful firms. But this is an analytical error. The majority of business income goes to salary and benefits not to profits. So the cost is borne primarily by the hypothetical extra employees of disfavored large firms, not by their owners. The other is the idea that small business profits “stay in the community” whereas a big firm vacuums them up to somewhere. This, however, is obsolete. The whole point of having established large nationwide banks is that it’s now possible to channel capital from anywhere to anywhere very quickly. The location of the financial input is irrelevant.

I know some commenters here seem to think that since libertarianism is a false doctrine it therefore follows that all instances of government regulation are good. A sounder view is that since wealthy special interests are politically powerful, we should always be on guard against efforts by the politically powerful to enrich themselves at the expense of the public. Local business owners are powerful in local politics, and seem to be gaming the system in a way that’s detrimental to working people.

Security

Recognizing Palestinian Progress In Battling Incitement

Writing up an event yesterday at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, in which WINEP’s Robert Satloff, David Makovsky, and Scott Carpenter shared insights from a recent trip to the region, JTA’s Ron Kampeas reports, “Makovsky noted the strides the Palestinian Authority has made in combating incitement, taking over Hamas run charities and booting out of their jobs violence-inciting imams as well as changing some textbooks to remove objectionable references to Jews”:

I asked Makovsky if WINEP — with its formidable collection of intellects, a forceful voice in the pro-Israel world — planned to take that message to the organizational Jewish world, which reflexively makes an issue of incitement without noting the strides.

He and Satloff said yes, with the caveat that regressions into incitement must also be noted — most recently the idiotic “study” denying a Jewish claim to the Western Wall. Satloff recalled being energized by the meeting with the P.A. leadership, and then being chauffered down Yahiya Ayyash boulevard — named for the “Engineer,” assassinated by Israel in 1996, and whose singular accomplishment was slaughtering Israeli civilians.

“These are issues people need to be vigilant about,” Makovsky said. “If there are 30 metrics” to measure progress, “if we only look at one metric, we’re missing a lot of the metrics.”

Added Satloff:: “We need to recognize what needs to be improved and recognize and praise the progress that’s been. We need to stay away from hysteria and its opposite, whitewash.”

Coming from WINEP, this is a refreshing take, one that tracks with what I’ve heard from both Israelis and Palestinians on the issue of incitement on recent visits — there has been a serious and successful effort on the part of Palestinians to clamp down on it. I admit to being skeptical, though, of seeing any real follow through from WINEP, for precisely the reasons that Kampeas indicates. But I’m always ready to be surprised.

Since coming into power, the Netanyahu government has placed an enormous amount of emphasis on the issue of Palestinian incitement. Earlier this month, Haaretz reported that Israel is planning to publish a Palestinian “incitement index,” measuring the level of ant-Israel sentiment in Palestinian media.

There are a few reasons for this emphasis. One is that incitement is not conducive to peace, promotes hostility, and should stop. But another is that Palestinian incitement is a useful tool for Israelis to distract from the fact that they continue to be an occupying power (also not conducive to peace, also promotes hostility), and in violation of numerous agreements, particularly the 2003 Quartet road map, which calls for an end to Palestinian incitement as well as a complete Israeli settlement freeze. As one Israeli official remarked to me this past summer, the Palestinians have done so well on their road map obligations that the Netanyahu government is “desperate to find evidence of Palestinian wrongdoing” to rebut criticisms of its own violations. And that’s where the new “incitement index” comes in.

Is it unreasonable for the Israelis to demand that the Palestinians meet their obligations on incitement while refusing to meet their own on settlements (to say nothing of the incitement coming from the Israeli side)? Of course it is. But this does suggest a way out of the current impasse and back to direct talks, at least one that doesn’t involve the U.S. bribing Israel to stop doing what it shouldn’t be doing anyway.

The Palestinians could offer to continue to curb incitement for as long as the Israelis freeze settlements. Given how important the incitement issue clearly is to Netanyahu, accepting such a generous offer should be an easy decision. Then talks can restart. You’re welcome.

Politics

Palin: ‘Obviously, We’ve Got To Stand With Our North Korean Allies’

In recent days, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has hinted in her clearest language yet that she is seriously considering a run for the presidency in 2012. Many observers have argued that Palin could never win because of her embarrassing lack of expertise, knowledge, or interest in foreign policy. Her appearance on Fox News host Glenn Beck’s radio show today, captured by Oliver Willis, suggests they may be right:

CO-HOST: How would you handle a situation like the one that just developed in North Korea? [...]

PALIN: But obviously, we’ve got to stand with our North Korean allies. We’re bound to by treaty –

CO-HOST: South Korean.

PALIN: Eh, Yeah. And we’re also bound by prudence to stand with our South Korean allies, yes.

Listen here:

Palin misspoke, but this was hardly the first time. While malapropisms can and should be forgiven for frequent public speakers, it’s worth remembering what happened the last time America elected a candidate known for gaffes.

Alyssa

The Medium and the Message

I think Shani’s probably right that cable companies are in serious-long term trouble due to a failure to adapt to multiple new platforms. That said, I think the solution is actually pretty simple. If I were a cable exec, I’d do a couple of things. First, I’d develop a really terrific, flexible, strong player that will give viewers confidence that they can get the same credible user experience online or on their mobile devices that they get on a television screen.

Second, I’d move to a la carte subscriptions. I couldn’t care less about most of the stations I have access to, but I’d definitely pay another $10 a month for BBC America. I’d probably pay $5 a month for access to all the installments of Real Housewives whenever I wanted to see them. I’d pay $10 a month for USA. And I’d definitely pay for Community and 30 Rock even if I didn’t get access to any other NBC programming. I bet plans like that would lure viewers who have dropped their cable back. Across the board, cable profits might go down some, and I bet iTunes profits would go down a lot. But if I could pay networks directly and immediately for what I want from them, that might not be such a terrible tradeoff for those networks. And anything that gets me more Kandi Burruss and Bethanny Frankel is a good thing.

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