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Yglesias

The Questionable Prudence of the Savers

This is excellent from Steve Randy Waldmann on what’s aggravating about a lot of the recent lectures about the perils of overconsumption:

Some people overconsumed relative to their income, and some people invested poorly. Those who overconsumed have mostly faced consequences for their misbehavior — they are either deeply in debt, or they have endured foreclosure or bankruptcy. But the people who invested absurdly, especially “savers” who lent money but permitted themselves ignorance and indifference to how their wealth would be mismanaged, have not suffered the costs of their recklessness. Instead, they have been almost entirely bailed out. It is lenders and investors more than any other group who determine the patterns of our macroeconomy. There are always people willing to overconsume or gamble on foolish enterprises. We do and must rely upon those with resources to steward to ensure those resources are used wisely. They did not, and their recklessness has brought us to catastrophe. But rather than condemn them for negligence and permit their claims to be appropriately devalued, we applaud them for “prudence” and let government action be bound by commitments to sustain their destructive and ridiculous claims. You don’t counter that sort of villainy with technocratic arguments about liquidity traps. You point out that the motherfuckers who are calling themselves prudent, who are blocking both writedowns and government action that might risk inflation, are hypocrites and thieves. You state clearly that their claims are illegitimate and will be written down one way or another, unless we can generate sufficient growth to ratify them ex post, which would require claimants to behave less like indignant creditors and more like constructive equityholders. It is not technocratic economists who will win the day and pull us out of our cul-de-sac, but angry Irishmen and Spaniards who challenge, on moral terms, the right of German bankers to impose vast deadweight costs on current activity because they lent greedily into what might easily have been recognized as a property and credit bubble.

But to speak up for technocratic economists, the problem issue is that to effect political change you need both populist anger and also some kind of technically workable program. We need people to be angry, and we need moralistic challenges, but then we need ideas from Barry Eichengreen.

Politics

VIDEO: Grumpy McCain Repeatedly Complains About DADT Hearing

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — who previously said that he was open to considering DADT repeal if the military carefully studied the consequences of such a policy change — is nevertheless vocally opposed to lifting the ban after the military released its study indicating support for repeal. From the very first DADT hearing in February 2010 to today’s session, McCain has grumpily refused to consider the views of the witnesses before him. This morning — after reviewing the overwhelming positive DADT report and listening to the pleas of the leaders to end the policy in the lame duck session — McCain went further, openly implying that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen was not living up to the expectations of leadership because he did not ask the troops if they favored repealing the policy. Watch it:

The Wonk Room points out that all of the leaders in front of the commission — Mullen, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and Working Group chairmen Defense Department General Counsel Jeh C. Johnson and Army Gen. Carter F. Ham — disagreed with McCain’s approach of polling the troops about the policy.

LGBT

McCain Exudes Grumpiness At DADT Hearing

Since President Obama announced his intent to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell in this year’s State of the Union Address, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — who had previously said that he was open to considering repeal if the military carefully studied the consequences of such a policy change– has vocally opposed lifting the ban. But his objections transcended mere policy disagreements. At every step of the way, the senior Senator of Arizona acted as a thorn in the Democrats’ back, complaining about the normal time constraints of Senate hearings and implying that the military leadership supported repeal because they were carrying out a partisan agenda for the President.

From the very first DADT hearing in February 2010 to today’s session, the Senator refused to consider the views of the witnesses before him. This morning — after reviewing the overwhelming positive DADT report and listening to the pleas of the leaders to end the policy in the lame duck session — McCain went further, openly implying that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen was not living up to the expectations of leadership because he did not ask the troops if they favored repealing the policy:

MCCAIN: Then why wouldn’t we just ask the question?

MULLEN: Because, I fundamentally sir, think it’s an incredibly bad precedent to ask them about, to essentially vote on a policy.

MCAIN: It’s not voting sir, it’s asking their views….Now I understand what your answer is. We would not ask their views on whether this policy should be changed or not, as the first question.

MULLEN: We’ve gotten in great part their views as a result of this survey.

MCCAIN: Well obviously, we’ll go around and around, but why we didn’t just simply ask them how they felt about it….Again, every great leader I’ve known has said, what are your views on this issue?

Watch it:

Significantly, all of the leaders in front of the commission — Mullen, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and Working Group chairmen Defense Department General Counsel Jeh C. Johnson and Army Gen. Carter F. Ham — disagreed with McCain’s approach of polling the troops about the policy. “I can’t think of a single precedent in American history of doing a referendum of the american armed forces on a policy issue,” Gates said, asking, “are you going to ask them if they want 15 month tours, are you going to ask them if they want to be part of the surge in Iraq?” McCain didn’t name a single “great leader” who favored a referendum.

For a complete run down of McCain’s top 11 positions on the issue, click HERE.

Climate Progress

Nigerian government to charge Dick Cheney in massive bribery case over natural gas pipeline

cheney.jpgBeyond the question “has anyone in U.S. history made more Americans less safe than Dick Cheney?” lies “is Dick Cheney simply the worst vice president ever?”

Today we learned the Nigerian government will charge former Vice President Dick Cheney in a massive bribery case involving $180 million in kickbacks paid to Nigerian lawmakers, who awarded a $6 billion natural gas pipeline contract to Halliburton subsidiary KBR when Cheney was running the company.  ThinkProgress has the story in this cross-post.

Read more

Politics

RNC Chair Candidate Ann Wagner: ‘We Should Not Be Raising The Debt Ceiling’

With the all-important debt ceiling vote looming in the next few months, more GOPers are making their feelings known about the issue. A few conservatives have rightly chastised their Republican brethren for playing games with the debt ceiling and possibly forcing the nation to default on our debt. They include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who called such a move “naïve,” and incoming House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), who said that those GOPers who vote against raising the debt ceiling and risk a government shutdown will be seen as “yahoos.” Unfortunately, many on the right are ignoring these warnings and instead pitching their tents in the Shutdown Caucus by refusing to raise the national debt ceiling.

Now, one of the candidates to become the next RNC Chairman, former Missouri Republican Chair Ann Wagner, is taking a firm stance on whether her party should fight against raising the debt ceiling. In an interview at the first RNC Chairman debate, Wagner told ThinkProgress, “no, we should not be raising the debt ceiling”:

TP: One of the things that I know is going to be a real big issue coming up and I know Chairman Steele has been outspoken about is the debt ceiling. He said that the GOP is just not going to compromise on that. Is that a call you’d be comfortable joining him in?

WAGNER: No no, I will tell you I believe that the Congress and our new Speaker and leadership will be tackling issues like that. I know for sure what we have to do is rein in spending and this soaring debt. We cannot turn into Greece or — I think Ireland is now on the verge of this also. It’s very important that we bring our debt down. [...]

TP: But in order to do that, do you think the next move would be to raise the debt ceiling, or [...] (crosstalk)

WAGNER: No, we should not be raising the debt ceiling. But I will leave that to Congress to navigate over the next Congress here.

Watch it:

Yglesias

A European-Style Fiscal Crisis Is Impossible in the United States of America

(cc photo by LateNightTaskForce)

Lori Montgomery and Brady Dennis write of the Simpson-Bowles Commission that “members from both parties set aside ideological orthodoxy at least briefly, sparking hope that their work could ignite a serious effort to reduce government debt and spare the nation from a European-style fiscal crisis.”

Leaving aside the fallacy of forgetting that the church of deficit reduction is also an ideological orthodoxy, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the issues. The government of Ireland can run out of Euros—they make Euros in Frankfurt. And the government of Peru can run out of dollars—they make dollars in Washington. But the government of the United States can’t run out of dollars. The problem we could find ourselves with is the problem of inflation. Problematic inflation is a genuinely problematic thing, but it’s a strange thing to worry about at the moment when inflation’s been running unusually low for years. Our current problem is that the total volume of nominal spending is way too low, which means that as a country we’re producing much less than we could be.

Climate Progress

Top Economics Textbook Gets Climate Science And Policy Wrong

The most popular economics textbook in the United States gives a misleading picture of climate science and policy. A new analysis by economist Yoram Bauman for the Sightline Institute criticizes Economics: Principles, Problems, and Policies by Campbell McConnell, Stanley Brue, and Sean Flynn, its 18th edition published in 2008, for “multiple errors” and “climate science that is almost 15 years out of date.” Bauman bemoans the fact that Economics has “over 20 percent of the market” for introductory economics textbooks:

Overall, the book is not too bad if you ignore that it’s based on climate science that is almost 15 years out of date and that it has multiple errors that would make Wikipedia blush. The fact that this textbook has over 20 percent of the market shakes my faith in capitalism.

The book’s 16th chapter has an extended discussion of climate change, with misleading, outdated, or false statements throughout:

The earth’s surface has warmed over the last century by about 1 degree Fahrenheit, with an acceleration of warming during the past two decades. Some of this surface warming may simply reflect natural fluctuations of the earth’s warming and cooling, but the balance of scientific evidence suggests that human activity is a contributing factor.

The “balance of evidence” language quoted above is 15 years out of date, coming from the 1995 IPCC second assessment report. The most recent IPCC report, from 2007, says that “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [greater than 90 percent] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic [man-made] greenhouse gas concentrations.”

Since 1997 all signatory nations except the United States have ratified the Kyoto agreement although few are actually likely to meet the 2012 goals.

This claim is false. In fact, as of 2007, 26 of 30 European Union countries are on track to meet their Kyoto targets, and the EU will meet its collective target. As will Australia, Japan, Russia, and the industrialized countries as a whole.

Because of the greenhouse effect, average temperatures are predicted to rise by 1 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 50 years and 2.2 to 10 degrees by 3000.

“The authors are off by 900 years,” Bauman writes. “If they substituted ’2100′ for ’3000′ they would be more in line with the 2007 IPCC report.” In the three years since the IPCC report, expectations have worsened. Scientists now expect temperatures to rise by another 3.5 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060 and 5 to 11 degrees by 2100 if dramatic reductions in pollution are not made.

Rainfall will increase, rainfall patterns will change, and ocean levels will gradually rise by as much as 2 feet. Snow accumulations may decline in some regions and rise in others. More violent storms such as tornadoes and hurricanes may occur in some regions.

The projection of sea level rise is wrong. The upper bound on very long-term sea level rise due to global warming is about 80 meters (260 feet) above current levels. The 2007 IPCC report did not place an upper bound on sea level rise by 2100, because ice sheet dynamics were not sufficiently understood to make a projection based on anything over than thermal expansion. Current expectations of sea level rise this century are of a minimum of 1.6 feet to 6 feet increase. Mort importantly, significant and deadly changes in rainfall, sea level rise, snow accumulation, and violent storms have already been observed across the world. These are not just changes that scientists expect to happen — but changes that are already happening.

The authors also get basic climate policy wrong in a misquote of Gilbert Metcalf’s carbon tax paper:

According to a 2007 study, a proposed $15 tax per ton of carbon emitted would add an estimated 14 cents to a gallon of gasoline, $1.63 to a kilowatt hour of electricity, $28.50 to a ton of coal, and $6.48 to a barrel of crude oil.

“They’re off by two full orders of magnitude here,” Bauman explains. “$1.63 should be $0.0163, and that’s not the only mathematical error. The figures they use refer to a tax per ton of carbon dioxide, not a tax per ton of carbon.” A $15 tax on a ton of carbon is a $55 tax on a ton of carbon dioxide.

Bauman charitably gives the textbook a C- grade, classing it with other major economics texts that are “not recommended.”

Politics

David Brooks Slams GOP Obstructionism: ‘If You Offered Them 99-1, They’d Say No’

Yesterday, the entire Senate Republican caucus signed a letter vowing to block every piece of legislation unless the body holds a vote on the extension of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. This came after two years of a concerted GOP effort to “obstruct, delay, obstruct, delay,” as Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said yesterday. This morning, at a debate with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) at the American Enterprise Institute, conservative New York Times columnist David Brooks slammed the GOP’s reflexive obstructionism and demand for ideological purity, saying their “rigidity” harms “governance” and is based on a false world view that progressives are a “bunch of socialists”:

BROOKS: And my problem with the Republican Party right now, including Paul, is that if you offered them 80-20, they say no. If you offered them 90-10, they’d say no. If you offered them 99-1 they’d say no. And that’s because we’ve substituted governance for brokerism, for rigidity that Ronald Regan didn’t have.

And to me, this rigidity comes from this polarizing world view that they’re a bunch of socialists over there. You know, again, I’ve spent a lot of time with the president. I’ve spent a lot of time with the people around him. They’re liberals! … But they’re not idiots. And they’re not Europeans, and they don’t want to be a European welfare state. … It’s American liberalism, and it’s not inflexible.

Watch it:

Media

The Fallacy of Private Knowledge

This passage from Matt Bai illustrates a lot of what I think is wrong with conventional reportorial methods:

The body of Mr. Obama’s writing and experiences before he became a presidential candidate would suggest that he is instinctively pragmatic, typical of an emerging generation that sees all political dogma – be it ’60s liberalism or ’80s conservatism – as anachronistic. Privately, Mr. Obama has described himself, at times, as essentially a Blue Dog Democrat, referring to the shrinking caucus of fiscally conservative members of the party.

Obama is secretly a Blue Dog! But without breaking any confidences, I can tell you that it’s also true that Obama has privately described himself at times as a liberal frustrated with the timidity of more moderate members of the party. Because guess what: Barack Obama is a politician trying to assemble a broad base of support. The idea that his “private” words and deeds reveal his “real” approach is a tempting conceit, but it doesn’t really make sense. The real Obama is the public Obama and that Obama’s approach to his job reveals an ideology that’s similar to your average Senate Democrat. He’s like Patty Murray, but much more famous.

LGBT

The DADT Hearings In Six Minutes: GOP Talking Points Debunked

This morning, during a hearing about the impact of repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and the co-chairmen of the Pentagon’s Working Group study of the policy effectively pushed back against Republican’s efforts to use the report as a reason to keep the current policy in place.

Significantly, Army Gen. Carter F. Ham the co-charimen of the Pentagon’s Working Group studying the impact of repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell and a skeptic of lifting the ban announced that he would personally support ending the policy. “It is my personal view that I’m very concerned about the timing of the courts and so personally I think it is time to move debate and discussion to decision and implementation. So yes sir, I think it is time to change,” Ham responded to a question from Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who was forced to move on to Gates.

For the GOP, it only got worse from there, as the witnesses effectively debunked Republican concerns one by one. Below is only a partial compilation:

- CLAIM: Should not lift ban in a time of war.

MULLEN RESPONDS: I find the argument that war is not the time to change to be antithetical with our experiences since 2001. War does not stifle change, it demands it. It does not make change harder, it facilities it.

- CLAIM: Combat troops believe repeal would be disruptive.

HAM RESPONDS: A subsequent question to that was, under intense combat, what would your response be. And we saw the negative rates drop dramatically.

- CLAIM: 28% response rate is too low.

HAM RESPONDS: Twenty-eight percent overall response rate is well within the historical range of Department of Defense surveys of military personnel.

- CLAIM: 265,000 servicemembers would leave the military.

GATES RESPONDS: Based on the survey itself, experience would dramatically lower those numbers. If I believed that a quarter of a million people would leave the military would leave immediately, if given the opportunity, I would certainly have second thoughts about that.

- CLAIM: Servicemembers should have been asked if they believe policy should be changed.

GATES RESPONDS: I can’t think of a single precedent in American history of doing a referendum of the american armed forces on a policy issue.

Watch a compilation:

The hearings will continue tomorrow, when the four Service Chiefs — who are less “sanguine” about repeal than Gates and Mullen — testify before the committee.

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