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Yglesias

Iran Isn’t Winning the Future

Matt Duss reports from Israel’s Herzliya Conference, a.k.a. “Neocon Woodstock”:

The drummers were already going to have trouble keeping the beat in the wake of outgoing Mossad chief Meir Dagan’s and Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon’s recent statements that efforts at sabotage and international sanctions had likely delayed an Iranian nuke for several years. Egypt only made things more complicated. Still, it was odd to hear neoconservative doyenne Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Institute dismiss as “propaganda” former Mossad head Efraim Halevi’s assertion that “the US and Israel are winning the war against Iran.” “If Iran is losing, I’d like to be that kind of loser,” Pletka said, reminding the audience that, “Khomeini referred to Israel as a one bomb country.”

“What I’m saying is not propaganda,” Halevi shot back. “The danger is believing the propaganda of others.”

It’s amazing to me how this particular cast of mind manages to consistently overrate the success of dysfunctional political and economic systems. Israel has about twice Iran’s per capita GDP, has an actually functioning nuclear arsenal, counts the mightiest empire the world has ever known as an ally, has a more potent conventional military, and manages to not be under international sanctions. But most of these advantages are either going to be frittered away, or else simply not matter, if the Israeli government persists in trying to hold on to and even expand settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Economy

Wisconsin Gov. Walker Threatens To Deploy National Guard As ‘Intimidation Force’ Against Workers’ Unions

Last month, Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) said that if employees strike, “they should be fired,” and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) wrote in an op-ed that the moral case for unions “does not apply to public employment.” Now, facing a $137 million budget deficit, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has proposed a “budget repair bill” that would severely limit collective bargaining, eliminate the right of unions to negotiate pensions, retirement and benefits.

Walker is facing fierce criticism for this all-out assault against state workers, especially after he insisted that the “National Guard” will be used against a walkout:

When asked by a reporter what will happen if workers resist, Walker replied that he would call out the National Guard. He said that the National Guard is “prepared…for whatever the governor, their commander-in-chief, might call for. … I am fully prepared for whatever may happen.”

Traditionally, the National Guard is called to assist Americans in times of crisis; so Walker’s attempt to use the National Guard as a tool to suppress dissent is particularly deplorable. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, more than 50,000 Guard members were called to help, and following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, more than 50,000 Guards were deployed. Veterans have strongly objected to Walker’s recent intent to use the National Guard as a vessel to intimidate state workers. VoteVet released a statement today that says Walker shouldn’t use the National Guard as an “intimidation force“:

Maybe the new governor doesn’t understand yet – but the National Guard is not his own personal intimidation force to be mobilized to quash political dissent,” said Robin Eckstein, a former Wisconsin National Guard member, Iraq War Veteran from Appleton, WI, and member of VoteVets.org. “The Guard is to be used in case of true emergencies and disasters, to help the people of Wisconsin, not to bully political opponents. Considering many veterans and Guard members are union members, it’s even more inappropriate to use the Guard in this way. This is a very dangerous line the Governor is about to cross.”

Wisconsin state employee unions already made $100 million in concessions last December. Now, under Walker’s new proposal, state workers would have to make further sacrifices by doubling their contributions to health insurance premiums and increasing allocations to their pensions. Walker’s bill would effectively take away the right of state employees to collectively bargain for everything from vacation, sick hours, and even the hours they work. But, smacking of political favoritism for the unions that supported Walker’s campaign, the State Patrol, local police, and fire departments would stay absolutely unchanged.

In response to Walker’s assault, the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO launched a major advertising campaign, in which they say Walker and other politicians plan to “take away rights of thousands of nurses, teachers and other trusted public employees” with almost no public debate.

A pattern is emerging, where Republican dominated governments across the country are shaping up to strip workers’ rights. In addition to Walker’s new proposal, last week, Ohio Gov. Kasich said that if lawmakers don’t pass a collective bargaining bill that he approves, Kasich will impose his own changes in the Ohio budget next month. Following in lockstep, Indiana, Idaho, and Tennessee all have legislation in the works to strip teachers’ ability to collectively bargain.

Paul Breer

Security

Young Americans For Freedom Purges Rep. Ron Paul From Board Over ‘Treason’ Of Opposing War

Last year, then-RNC chairman Michael Steele caused a mini civil war within the Republican Party when he criticized President Obama’s escalation in Afghanistan and suggested that the United States should not be at war in that country. Leading conservatives denounced Steele’s criticism of the war, quickly silencing him.

Now, yet another Republican who criticized the war is facing the possibility of being excommunicated from the conservative movement for his dovish views. On Saturday, Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) announced that Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), one of the handful of congressional Republicans who voted against going to war in Iraq and a major opponent of the war in Afghanistan, would be kicked off its National Advisory Board over his dovish views.

YAF condemned Paul’s “delusional and disturbing alliance with the fringe Anti-War movement” and said that he was even more “out of touch with America’s needs for national security than the current feeble and appeasing administration.” The group even went as far as to say that his “refusal to support our nation’s military and national security interests border on treason“:

The conservative group Young Americans for Freedom (YAF) announced Saturday that Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) would be expelled from the group’s National Advisory Board because of his “delusional and disturbing alliance with the fringe Anti-War movement.” “It is a sad day in American history when a one-time conservative-libertarian stalwart has fallen more out of touch with America’s needs for national security than the current feeble and appeasing administration,” YAF’s Senior National Director Jordan Marks said in a statement.

Rep. Paul’s refusal to support our nation’s military and national security interests border on treason, aside from his failure to uphold his oath to the United States Constitution and defend our country and citizens against all enemies, foreign and domestic,” Marks continued.

It’s curious that YAF compares Paul’s opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to treason. The latest Gallup poll on the issue finds that 61 percent of Republicans want to see a speedier withdrawal of American combat troops from the Afghanistan. Between the attacks on Steele and the purging of Paul, it appears that right-wing powerbrokers are willing to attack any conservative over their increasingly minority views on war and foreign policy.

Security

House Republicans Make It Easier For Terrorists To Get Nukes

On Friday, House Republicans put forth a “continuing resolution” (CR) to fund the government past March 4th that was filled with spending cuts. While this came as no surprise, one focus of the cuts is causing some heads to turn. House Republicans are choosing to significantly cut the National Nuclear Security Administration’s nonproliferation programs, the sole purpose of which is to prevent terrorists from getting their hands on loose nuclear weapons and materials. While Republicans have talked about the need to inflict pain in their budget, doing so in a way that increases the risk of the nuclear annihilation of an American city is perhaps taking the pledge too far.

House Republicans have proposed to cut funding for these programs by 22 percent or $647 million. Michelle Marchesano of the Partnership for Global Security warns:

The US programs charged with securing fissile materials and thwarting terrorists’ efforts to acquire them are among the victims of this year’s federal budget fights… Without appropriated budgets commensurate to program agendas, efforts to improve global nuclear material security will stall.

The danger of a terrorist acquiring nuclear materials is very real. A softball-sized amount of highly enriched uranium can demolish an entire city. Yet in many countries, nuclear materials remain highly insecure, leaving them susceptible to theft. For years nuclear materials have floated on the black market and it is known that Al Qaeda has sought to purchase them.

But this danger is entirely preventable. It merely requires effort and a little money. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union the US set up programs to reduce the threat by locking down and eliminating insecure nuclear materials. To bring attention to the danger, President Obama convened a Nuclear Security Summit last April – the largest gathering of heads of state in the US since the founding of the United Nations. At the summit, Obama set the goal of securing all nuclear materials within four years. This goal is ambitious, but achievable. Unfortunately, however the programs necessary to achieve this goal haven’t received sufficient funding from congress.

These programs in the past have had significant bipartisan support and are the lasting legacy of Republican Senator Richard Lugar. The amount of funding required for these programs is also a drop in the bucket when compared to the current cost of the wars in Afghanistan and the total Pentagon budget. Last year Harvard’s Graham Allison wrote, “The good news is that this ultimate catastrophe is preventable. … [C]itizens must press their elected officials to adopt a clear agenda for action and then hold them accountable for following through.”

Yglesias

Schools and the Baumol Effect

The so-called “Baumol Effect” is something that’s pretty widely known even as its implications are rarely confronted squarely. For example, suppose you’re thinking about spending on teacher compensation. The following options are available:

— Class size can steadily increase over time.
— Teacher pay relative to average pay can steadily decline over time.
— Taxes can steadily rise over time.

As of January 2010 only four percent of people thought public school teachers are paid too much. And yet the public is hardly clamoring for larger class sizes or endless tax hikes. However you feel about this, though, the point isn’t just that tradeoffs exist at the margin but that the problem continually recurs as long as average productivity and compensation are rising in the private sector.

Climate Progress

If Watson wins on Jeopardy! does that mean some intelligent life might survive global warming?

First-ever human vs. AI "Jeopardy!" match.

We are the subspecies Homo sapiens sapiens.  That’s mainly because we are the only species that gets to name all the species, so we can call ourselves “wise” twice!

But given how we have been destroying the planet’s livability, I think at the very least we should drop one of the sapiens. And, perhaps provisionally, we should put the other one in quotes, so we are Homo “sapiens,” at least until we see whether we are smart enough to save ourselves from self-destruction (see Science stunner: On our current emissions path, CO2 levels in 2100 will hit levels last seen when the Earth was 29°F (16°C) hotter).

Of course there are dolphins, but they seem rather unlikely to survive our carbon-fest (see Nature Geoscience study: Oceans are acidifying 10 times faster today than 55 million years ago when a mass extinction of marine species occurred and “Geological Society: Acidifying oceans spell marine biological meltdown “by end of century”).  Hmm.  Perhaps the book will have to be renamed, “So long, and thanks for killing all the fish.”  But I digress.

Now comes word that IBM has developed an “artificial intelligence” that positively kills on Jeopardy!.  Yeah, I know, climate hawks would have preferred they spent a few million bucks developing an “artificial intelligence” that convinces people to stop spewing climate-destroying emissions into the air, but, really, at the end of the day, we already have Al Gore, and would you rather listen to some damn alarmist machine or watch Ken Jennings finally lose.

Read more

Politics

Wisconsin Gov. Walker Threatens To Deploy National Guard As ‘Intimidation Force’ Against Workers’ Unions

Last month, Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) said that if employees strike, “they should be fired,” and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) wrote in an op-ed that the moral case for unions “does not apply to public employment.” Now, facing a $137 million budget deficit, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has proposed a “budget repair bill” that would severely limit collective bargaining, eliminate the right of unions to negotiate pensions, retirement and benefits.

Walker is facing fierce criticism for this all-out assault against state workers, especially after he insisted that the “National Guard” will be used against a walkout:

When asked by a reporter what will happen if workers resist, Walker replied that he would call out the National Guard. He said that the National Guard is “prepared…for whatever the governor, their commander-in-chief, might call for. … I am fully prepared for whatever may happen.”

Traditionally, the National Guard is called to assist Americans in times of crisis; so Walker’s attempt to use the National Guard as a tool to suppress dissent is particularly deplorable. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, more than 50,000 Guard members were called to help, and following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, more than 50,000 Guards were deployed. Veterans have strongly objected to Walker’s recent intent to use the National Guard as a vessel to intimidate state workers. VoteVet released a statement today that says Walker shouldn’t use the National Guard as an “intimidation force“:

Maybe the new governor doesn’t understand yet – but the National Guard is not his own personal intimidation force to be mobilized to quash political dissent,” said Robin Eckstein, a former Wisconsin National Guard member, Iraq War Veteran from Appleton, WI, and member of VoteVets.org. “The Guard is to be used in case of true emergencies and disasters, to help the people of Wisconsin, not to bully political opponents. Considering many veterans and Guard members are union members, it’s even more inappropriate to use the Guard in this way. This is a very dangerous line the Governor is about to cross.”

Wisconsin state employee unions already made $100 million in concessions last December. Now, under Walker’s new proposal, state workers would have to make further sacrifices by doubling their contributions to health insurance premiums and increasing allocations to their pensions. Walker’s bill would effectively take away the right of state employees to collectively bargain for everything from vacation, sick hours, and even the hours they work. But, smacking of political favoritism for the unions that supported Walker’s campaign, the State Patrol, local police, and fire departments would stay absolutely unchanged.

In response to Walker’s assault, the Wisconsin State AFL-CIO launched a major advertising campaign, in which they say Walker and other politicians plan to “take away rights of thousands of nurses, teachers and other trusted public employees” with almost no public debate.

A pattern is emerging, where Republican dominated governments across the country are shaping up to strip workers’ rights. In addition to Walker’s new proposal, last week, Ohio Gov. Kasich said that if lawmakers don’t pass a collective bargaining bill that he approves, Kasich will impose his own changes in the Ohio budget next month. Following in lockstep, Indiana, Idaho, and Tennessee all have legislation in the works to strip teachers’ ability to collectively bargain.

Paul Breer

Climate Progress

Exclusive: Richard Muller, Charles Koch, Judith Curry and the implosion of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study

How to kill a potentially not-bad idea in 5 easy steps

Multiple head-vise alert!

http://games.gearlive.com/blogimages/head_asplode.jpgLet’s say you’re a major national lab, affiliated with a major university, concerned about critiques of the global temperature record.  Let’s say you get the bright idea to assemble some really smart scientists and statisticians “to resolve current criticism of the [global] temperature analyses, and to prepare an open record that will allow rapid response to further criticism or suggestions.”

Let’s set aside the fact that the various groups involved from NASA to NOAA to the Met Office have been undertaking their own reviews (see The deniers were half right: The Met Office Hadley Centre had flawed data “” but it led them to UNDERestimate the rate of recent global warming and “Watts not to love: New study finds the poor weather stations tend to have a slight COOL bias, not a warm one“).

You know that because you are prestigious, independent institution, you can bring fresh eyes and credibility to this supposed problem.

How would you go about killing this potentially not-bad idea?   How about picking a co-chair whose knowledge of the subject has been widely criticized?  How about including a bunch of prestigious scientists who know very little about the subject and who have little involvement in the actual study?  How about having your only actual climate scientist — presumably chosen for extra credibility — be Judith Curry?  How about having a family member of the ill-informed co-chair be project manager?   How about taking money from one of the biggest funders of anti-science disinformation in the world?

What’s that you say?  No serious organization on the planet would do something like that, especially in an effort whose entire purpose is to boost credibility?

Let me introduce you to the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study, launched in part with a grant by the prestigious Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, co-chaired by Richard Muller (author of widely debunked books, blog posts and Wall Street Journal op-eds), and co-funded by … wait for it … the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation!

I warned you about the head vises!

Let’s start with Muller.

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LGBT

DADT Repeal Proponents Claim ‘Practical Necessity And Politics’ Led To Drop Of Nondiscrimination Provision

Former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA)

This afternoon, during an eQualityThinking Panel titled, “The Truth Behind The Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Repeal,” former Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA) tried to explain why advocates of DADT repeal ultimately bargained away the requirement that the Pentagon implement a new nondiscrimination policy after lifting the ban against open-service. The provision — which would specifically prohibit discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation — was part of Murphy’s initial amendment but was later removed to improve the chances of passage, as the former Congressman described it. Gay rights leaders are now pressuring President Obama to issue an executive order instituting a nondiscrimination policy to ensure that gay troops have the same rights and protections as straight servicemembers.

“[E]veryone played a vital role in passing this major piece of civil rights legislation all being it’s not perfect. The 1964 civil rights legislation was not perfect, but it was a huge step on the way forward,” Murphy said on the call. “We need to make sure that we continue to keep the pressure on to make sure that they don’t try to revoke this over in the Congress.”

Aubrey Sarvis, Executive Director of Servicemembers Legal Defense Network (SLDN), who was also on the call, reiterated Murphy’s explanation saying, “a decision was made by the leaders of the legislation on the Hill that those provisions would have to be dropped in order to insure more votes, not only in the House Armed Services Committee, but also on the House floor. So, it was a matter of practical necessity and politics.” In May, Murphy had suggested that he received assurances that the government would implement a nondiscrimination policy once DADT is repealed. “I’m fully confident in the public testimony of both Secretary of Defense Gates of Chairman Mike Mullen and our current Commander in Chief, Barack Obama, that they have been very clear that they want to have a nondiscriminatory policy in place,” he told me. He did not, however, reiterate this commitment on today’s call or address why Obama dodged the question twice during a recent interview with Kerry Eleveld.

Murphy also added that the certification language — which was also not part of the original repeal amendment — was added to give the Pentagon “buy in” and build support for the measure among more conservative members in Congress. “Putting that language in the bill that was finally passed it gave them buy in, it wasn’t like we were shoving it down their necks,” he said, before adding, “I don’t think this is a gradual phase out, it’s going to be a light switch — it’s just a procedure that needs to be agreed on.”

Yglesias

Forgotten Moments in the American Welfare State

Something that I find interesting is the way progressive folk memory often distorts the actual process through which we got to the present day. For example, the FDR of myth was a steadfast fighter who proclaimed “I welcome their hatred” and rallied the public to enact the New Deal we know today. Then there’s this account from The Politics of Attention:

On August 28, 1950, President Truman enthusiastically signed Social Security reforms he had urged for years, reforms that expanded Old Age and Survivors Insurances (OASI) benefits by 77 percent, expanded the covered population dramatically, and decreased the required contributions in the system. [...] The 1950 legislation radically transformed the small program established in major amendments to the Social Security Act in 1939. The 1950 statutory changes caused an explosion in Social Security expenditures. From FY 1949 to FY 1950, real expenditures grew 3 percent. From FY 1950 to FY 1951, they grew 25 percent, and the next year they grew an additional 37 percent—the largets two-year percentage increase in the history of the program—even though most payments would come much later as the newly covered persons retired. By 1952, expenditures had increased by an astounding 71 percent percent, and expenditures increased 10 percent a year or more for the next three fiscal years.

Needless to say, not in Pete Peterson’s wildest dreams will we be moving to a Social Security system that’s remotely as stingy as what FDR actually enacted. And even though we recently went through a spasm of Truman hagiography, I don’t recall him being widely hailed as one of the major architects of the social insurance state.

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