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Yglesias

The Trouble With Taxing Exclusively The Rich

In their sketch version of a budget (PDF) the Congressional Progressive Caucus makes a heroic effort to finance progressive government basically exclusively by raising taxes on rich people.

Specifically:

The big problem I have with this is that if you raise high-end marginal rates while leaving deductions alone, what you do is massively increase the value of the deductions. The home mortgage interest tax deduction, for example, is both distributively regressive and also economically damaging by shunting too much money into the housing sector. If wealthy people start paying a marginal income tax rate of 47 percent, then the incentive to overconsume housing becomes much more intense. A economically sound approach to the tax code needs to go after some of these deductions, and that means some middle class families will have to pay somewhat more.

Not so much a problem, but an observation, about this plan is that it actually does implicitly recognize the non-viability of a rich people only strategy. After all, even though the legal incidence of these corporate tax changes is on the corporations, the reality is that some of the bite will be felt by middle class consumers of these firms’ products and middle class employees of the firms. We really shouldn’t be handing out so much corporate welfare to oil and gas companies. But it’s not like everyone working in the oil and gas industry is an evil fatcat, it’s mostly regular everyday folks. And that’s fine. But once you’re willing to concede the point that pursuing increased revenue in a sensible way will entail some sacrifice by some middle class people, you may as well apply that principle to the individual income tax as well as the corporate income tax.

Politics

Wisconsin Progressives Collect 9,000 More Signatures Than Needed To Oust Philandering Republican Senator

State Sen. Randy Hopper

Democrats and labor activists are ready to file another recall petition in Wisconsin, as they are expected to submit nearly 24,000 signatures against state Sen. Randy Hopper (R). Only about 15,000 signatures are needed to successfully trigger a recall. It will mark the second time in less than a week that a recall petition has been successfully filed against a Wisconsin Senate Republican, after organizers submitted about 22,000 signatures against Sen. Dan Kapanke (R) last Friday.

Among the signatures may be those of Hopper’s former maid and his estranged wife. (Hopper is reportedly having an affair with a former staffer and now lives outside of his district.) His wife has even indicated that she will contribute to whomever runs against Hopper in a recall election.

Two recent polls have shown that Hopper is trailing a generic Democrat in a recall election. As many as six other GOP state senators could be recalled after their votes to support Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) anti-worker “budget” bill last month.

Climate Progress

Is global warming a black swan?

Is the Japanese nuclear disaster?

Year after year the worriers and fretters would come to me with awful predictions of the outbreak of war. I denied it each time. I was only wrong twice.

-Senior British intelligence official, retiring in 1950 after 47 years of service

One of the defining characteristics of humans is our ability to ignore or downplay facts that would shatter or overturn our world view.  At the same time, we tend to favor or selectively recall information that confirms our preconceptions, which is called “confirmation bias.”

blackswan2.jpgI bring that up because, these days, pretty much everything that seems anomalous is called a “Black Swan,” a term popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in writings such as, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.”

And so we have both the Washington Post and Foreign Policy writing major pieces on Japan’s “black swan.”  But how exactly can a nuclear accident in Japan be a black swan.  The Japan Times ran an article whose lead sentence was “Of all the places in all the world where no one in their right mind would build scores of nuclear power plants, Japan would be pretty near the top of the list” back in May 2004 — seven years ago!

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LGBT

Study Shows There Are At Least 9 Million LGBT Americans

A new study from The Williams Institute (PDF) estimates that 3.5 percent of adults in the United States identify as gay, lesbian, or bisexual and 0.3 percent identify as transgender. The new figures represent consistencies across a number of national studies that have invited participants to disclose their sexual orientation and gender identity:

The analyses suggest that there are more than 8 million adults in the US who are LGB, comprising 3.5% of the adult population. This is split nearly evenly between lesbian/gay and bisexual identified individuals, 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively. There are also nearly 700,000 transgender individuals in the US. Given these findings, it seems reasonable to assert that approximately 9 million Americans identify as LGBT.

However, studies of same-sex sexual behavior and same-sex sexual attraction show much higher numbers. An average of 8.2 percent Americans (nearly 19 million) have actually had sexual interactions with the same sex. The numbers for same-sex attraction are even higher: 11 percent of Americans (nearly 25.6 million) acknowledge that they have had them. (These figures more closely represent the common 10 percent estimate most people know from Alfred Kinsey’s studies of sexuality in 1948 and 1953.)

The disparity between these numbers confirms challenges in measuring the true population of LGBT people. As the study points out: “Identity, behavior, attraction, and relationships all capture related dimensions of sexual orientation but none of these measures completely addresses the concept.”

The study’s recommendation for asking sexual orientation and gender identity to large-scale surveys echoes a similar recommendation for data collection offered by the Institute of Medicine last week. The true impact of “LGBT” policies can only be measured if the questions continue to be asked.

Yglesias

Some Conceptual Distinctions in the Entitlements Controversy

Unfortunately, a lot of discussions of Social Security and Medicare end up running together a number of different issues that it would be smarter to keep separate. The nation is simultaneously debating how to deal with demographic change, how large a share of national income should go to the support of the elderly, how large a share of support for the elderly should take the form of health insurance, and how best to organize the provision of health insurance to the elderly. What follows is long and I’ll put it below the fold.

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Media

Fox News Misreports Poll Numbers To Claim That Most Americans Don’t Want GOP To Compromise On Budget

The federal government is on the verge of shutting down as Republican and Democratic Party negotiators have failed to reach a compromise on a bill to continue to fund the government. Progressives are resisting deeper cuts to programs Main Street Americans rely on, like Pell Grants and Head Start, yet Tea Party Republicans continue to demand more cuts.

This morning, Fox News hosted Rep. Allen West (R-FL) to talk about the cuts that the Tea Party wants. In order to frame the discussion as supporting West’s position, which is anti-compromise, the right-wing network cited a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that it claimed showed that most Americans do not want the Republicans to compromise. Host Martha MacCallum claimed the poll showed that “56 percent of Americans say that [Republicans] should stick to their positions.” Watch it:

The problem with the poll that Fox cited is that it doesn’t say anything like what they claim it does. In fact, it appears that they actually switched the numbers around. The poll in question does find that 56 percent of respondents do not want to see the GOP compromise, but the question was directed to self-identified Republicans — meaning that Fox essentially took the number for Republicans and claimed that it represented all Americans:

In reality, the poll also shows that a plurality of Americans think Republicans would bear responsibility for a shutdown:

Unfortunately, misreporting poll numbers is nothing new for Fox News. Earlier this year, Fox reversed the results of a poll to claim that most Americans do not back public employee collective bargaining rights.

Alyssa

Retired From the Disco Floor

Can someone please gin up a good narrative music video for Ms. Britney Jean Spears?

The efforts to prove she still has her dancing chops aren’t really working. And it’s worth remembering that arguably her best music video isn’t primarily a dance video at all:

It’s totally okay to tell stories, especially in a format where even if your main or only acting tools are big sad eyes and a surprisingly gratifying smile, that is completely enough.

Climate Progress

Congress on wrong side of history in denying climate change

Right now in our hometown of St. Paul, Minnesota, we are preparing for what might possibly be record-breaking floods due to winter’s heavy snowfall and the threat of heavier spring downpours. Minnesota has already experienced two 100-year floods in the Red River Valley within the past 13 years. Local doctors report an increase in cases of children with asthma and other respiratory conditions. Lake Superior has seen record low water levels in recent years, threatening not only drinking water supplies but the Duluth-Superior port that receives more than 1,200 ships and 48 million tons of cargo.

All of these public health, economic, and environmental trends have been strongly linked to climate change.

That’s from a great op-ed in The Hill by Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN) and Dr. John Abraham, an associate professor of thermal sciences MN who helped found the Climate Science Rapid Response Team.

Here’s more:

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Yglesias

All Rationing Is Self-Rationing

Suzy Khimm writes that “Some Republicans are now casting Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan as a form of ‘self-rationing’ that would place such decisions in the hands of private citizens, rather than cold-hearted bureaucrats.”

What I never understand about this is that all “rationing” is self-rationing. If we have a single-payer system that’s only willing to pay for certain services, then citizens are still free to pay out of pocket for other things. The fact that Medicare won’t pay for a MacBook Air doesn’t mean that grandpa can’t buy a MacBook Air, it just means he has to spend his own money on it if he wants one. Cato’s Michael Tanner tells Politico that “The question’s going to be, is that decision going to be made by government and imposed top down under the current system? Ryan wants to shift that responsibility to individuals and from the bottom up.”

But this isn’t the question at all. Under any conceivable system there are some things that the federal government will pay for, and other things people will buy on their own.

I think conservatives have gotten themselves tangled up in this web because they don’t understand that their own critique of big government rationing is a metaphor. Sometimes rationing really happens. During World War II, governments suffered from a lot of commodity shortages, and for the sake of equity chose to distribute the scarce commodities via rationing—hard caps on the quantity anyone is allowed to buy with his or her own money—rather than prices. Contemporary American cities often ration on-street parking. Meter rates are generally low, and resulting shortages are dealt with via rules limiting the maximum quantity of parking time you can purchase. This is real rationing, and it’s very inefficient. In theory you could institute a strict licensing regime on health care services, but nobody’s proposing to do so and there’s certainly no fiscal policy need to do so. What’s being proposed is to try to deploy evidence about the effectiveness of different treatments to limit what Medicare will pay for, leaving people free to pay for it themselves if they want to. Conservatives who don’t like this idea chose to metaphorically label this “rationing” but it’s no different from what they themselves are proposing to do. They just want to add a new layer of rent-seeking profiteers into the mix.

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