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Top Climate Scientist On The Monster Tornadoes: ‘It Is Irresponsible Not To Mention Climate Change’

Throughout human history, the climate system has been a source of life and death, the sun and rain capable of feeding our crops and bringing us comfort, or unleashing terrible devastation in wind, fire, drought, storm, and flood. Each tragedy that occurs — such as the terrible outbreak of tornadoes and flooding storms this week in the South — reminds us of that awesome power, which is beyond our control and at the limits of our comprehension. We have also learned that humanity is meddling with that power, primarily through the burning of coal and oil that increases the amount of heat trapped in the atmosphere and oceans. Scientists have been warning our leaders for decades that this interference with the climate system is dangerous, and have worked tirelessly to explain how these threats are now coming to pass.

However, the Republican Party is now dominated by ideologues who deny the threat of polluting our climate, even when faced with direct evidence of what the climate system can do to the people they are sworn to protect.

Conservatives attack any discussion of climate policy within the context of the killer tornadoes as “grotesque,” saying that to do so is blaming the victims.

In an email interview with ThinkProgress, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s top climate scientists, who has been exploring for years how greenhouse pollution influences extreme weather, said he believes that it is “irresponsible not to mention climate change” in the context of these extreme tornadoes. Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, added that the scientific understanding of how polluting our atmosphere with billions of tons of greenhouse gases affects tornadic activity is still ongoing:

It is irresponsible not to mention climate change.The environment in which all of these storms and the tornadoes are occurring has changed from human influences (global warming). Tornadoes come from thunderstorms in a wind shear environment. This occurs east of the Rockies more than anywhere else in the world. The wind shear is from southerly (SE, S or SW) flow from the Gulf overlaid by westerlies aloft that have come over the Rockies. That wind shear can be converted to rotation. The basic driver of thunderstorms is the instability in the atmosphere: warm moist air at low levels with drier air aloft. With global warming the low level air is warm and moister and there is more energy available to fuel all of these storms and increase the buoyancy of the air so that thunderstorms are strong. There is no clear research on changes in shear related to global warming. On average the low level air is 1 deg F and 4 percent moister than in the 1970s.

Climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, explains further that “climate change is present in every single meteorological event”:

The fact remains that there is 4 percent more water vapor–and associated additional moist energy–available both to power individual storms and to produce intense rainfall from them. Climate change is present in every single meteorological event, in that these events are occurring within a baseline atmospheric environment that has shifted in favor of more intense weather events.

Climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, climate modeller at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, concurred:

It is a truism to say that everything has been affected by climate change so far and therefore this latest outbreak must in some sense have been affected, but attribution is hard and the further down the chain the causality is supposed to go, the harder this is. For heat waves it is easier, for statistics on precipitation intensity it easier – there are multiple levels of good modelling, theory and observations to back it up. But we have much less to go on with tornadoes.

Those who deny the threat of polluting our climate system are not to blame for its fury — but none of us can shirk our responsibility to end our interference with the weather.

To find out if loved ones are okay, use safeandwell.org. Text REDCROSS to 90999 to donate $10 to relief efforts.

Yglesias

A GDP Components Chart

Chad Stone shows what’s happening:

Following Brad DeLong, we’ll call this the ham and eggs recovery. If we fixed housing finance (“investment in equipment and structures”) and had expansionary fiscal policy (“government purchases”) then we’d be doing great. And by the same token if we had some ham then we’d have ham and eggs if only we had some eggs. Karl Smith clarifies that this is a meaningfully different situation from, say, Japan’s endless slide. But it’s still pretty bleak if you ask me.

Climate Progress

Top Climate Scientist On The Monster Tornadoes: ‘It Is Irresponsible Not To Mention Climate Change’

Throughout human history, the climate system has been a source of life and death, the sun and rain capable of feeding our crops and bringing us comfort, or unleashing terrible devastation in wind, fire, drought, storm, and flood. Each tragedy that occurs — such as the terrible outbreak of tornadoes and flooding storms this week in the South — reminds us of that awesome power, which is beyond our control and at the limits of our comprehension. We have also learned that humanity is meddling with that power, primarily through the burning of coal and oil that increases the amount of heat trapped in the atmosphere and oceans. Scientists have been warning our leaders for decades that this interference with the climate system is dangerous, and have worked tirelessly to explain how these threats are now coming to pass.

However, the Republican Party is now dominated by ideologues who deny the threat of polluting our climate, even when faced with direct evidence of what the climate system can do to the people they are sworn to protect.

Conservatives attack any discussion of climate policy within the context of the killer tornadoes as “grotesque,” saying that to do so is blaming the victims.

In an email interview with ThinkProgress, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s top climate scientists, who has been exploring for years how greenhouse pollution influences extreme weather, said he believes that it is “irresponsible not to mention climate change” in the context of these extreme tornadoes. Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, added that the scientific understanding of how polluting our atmosphere with billions of tons of greenhouse gases affects tornadic activity is still ongoing:

It is irresponsible not to mention climate change.The environment in which all of these storms and the tornadoes are occurring has changed from human influences (global warming). Tornadoes come from thunderstorms in a wind shear environment. This occurs east of the Rockies more than anywhere else in the world. The wind shear is from southerly (SE, S or SW) flow from the Gulf overlaid by westerlies aloft that have come over the Rockies. That wind shear can be converted to rotation. The basic driver of thunderstorms is the instability in the atmosphere: warm moist air at low levels with drier air aloft. With global warming the low level air is warm and moister and there is more energy available to fuel all of these storms and increase the buoyancy of the air so that thunderstorms are strong. There is no clear research on changes in shear related to global warming. On average the low level air is 1 deg F and 4 percent moister than in the 1970s.

Climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, explains further that “climate change is present in every single meteorological event”:

The fact remains that there is 4 percent more water vapor–and associated additional moist energy–available both to power individual storms and to produce intense rainfall from them. Climate change is present in every single meteorological event, in that these events are occurring within a baseline atmospheric environment that has shifted in favor of more intense weather events.

Climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, climate modeller at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, concurred:

It is a truism to say that everything has been affected by climate change so far and therefore this latest outbreak must in some sense have been affected, but attribution is hard and the further down the chain the causality is supposed to go, the harder this is. For heat waves it is easier, for statistics on precipitation intensity it easier – there are multiple levels of good modelling, theory and observations to back it up. But we have much less to go on with tornadoes.

Those who deny the threat of polluting our climate system are not to blame for its fury — but none of us can shirk our responsibility to end our interference with the weather.

To find out if loved ones are okay, use safeandwell.org. Text REDCROSS to 90999 to donate $10 to relief efforts.

Featured

nebakhet writes:

Trenberth, Mann and Schmidt are absolutely correct and the deniers are just fuming at the mouth because they want to shut such subjects down.

Climate change is altering all properties of the atmosphere, humidity, temperature, etc. These of course include the elements that lead to all weather, including tornadoes.

So the scientists are right, tornadoes will be affected by climate change. How exactly and by how much no-one knows.

Unless the skeptics hypocritically want to claim the science is settled and certain that they know how tornadoes will be affected by climate change, they are just going to have to accept the fact that this threat should be conveyed to the public.

The title is right. It would be *irresponsible* not to point out to the public that climate change entails changes to weather, such as tornadoes and the possibility that these changes could make such events worse. Maybe changes to the patterns of their frequency, power or their pattern of occurrence for example.

Deniers of course don’t want the public to know about the potential impacts of climate change. While they are keen to stress that “climate has always changed”, they seem a little more adverse to the idea that tornado behavior might change along with it. They’d prefer the public wallow in ignorance thinking that climate change isn’t at risk of affecting weather.

The chosen tactic of the deniers is to deploy strawmen – pretending that the climate scientists are blaming recent tornadoes on climate change, rather than concede what climate scientists (and this article) is actually doing which is pointing out that climate change will affect weather events such as tornadoes. That is the danger – meddling with the system.

Politics

Freshman GOP Rep. Hultgren Dumbfounded After Constituent Grills Him On Oil Subsidies

Video recorded by ThinkProgress Blog Fellow Micah Uetricht, a reporter from the Chicago area.

On Tuesday at a town hall in Sycamore City, IL, freshmen Rep. Randy Hultgren (R-IL) was asked about the nearly $4 billion in taxpayer subsidies Big Oil companies receive every year, which the House GOP recently voted to preserve. A well-informed man in the audience asked Hultgren why he had done nothing to cut the subsidies, in light of the high national debt. The constituent noted that the billions in cuts forced by the GOP in the FY 2011 budget deal from valuable programs like Pell Grants and FEMA is about equivalent to the amount of money given to incredibly profitable oil companies. Hultgren hemmed and hawed before finally saying he would “look into that”:

CONSTITUENT: With the oil industry, we’re giving them $63 billion in oil subsidies. And you cut what, thirty one, thirty two billion?

HULTGREN: Thirty nine billion.

CONSTITUENT: Thirty nine? Why don’t you cut out the subsidies? The depletion allowance that they take, four dollar, every quarter its a record profit. C’mon, you don’t have to subsidize an organization, a group of organizations that every quarter they make so much more than they did the last quarter and the quarter before that and so on. How about cutting that out? It’ll give you a nice tidy sum over ten years.

HULTGREN: I’m very open to looking at every subsidy that we do and questioning why we do this. And I want to know. I want to have the answers there. I just–

CONSTITUENT: But there’s no logic there. None whatsoever.

HULTGREN: Well I’ll look into that. That’s something we just talked about on the way into here.

Watch it:

Hultgren mentioned that he had been talking about the oil subsidies issue earlier that day, but had no answer for the question. Although he claimed that he has been “questioning” the subsidies, Hultgren concealed the fact that earlier this year, around the same time he voted for the GOP’s budget cuts, he voted twice to extend billions in tax subsidies to big oil.

Republicans are facing a growing backlash over oil subsidies. Not only have top lawmakers faced angry constituents and questions from the press, but even Tea Party activists have called for the GOP to stop giving so much taxpayer money to multinational oil companies.

A few Republican lawmakers, like Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA), have called for an end to oil subsidies, as well as all other energy subsidies.

Yglesias

What Does Hamas Gain From a Unity Deal?

Fatah has a clear interest in trying to reach a unity deal with Hamas, since the United States has made it clear that we’re not going to put meaningful pressure on Israel no matter what and Israel’s made it clear that it won’t negotiate no matter what. But Matt Duss explains what’s in it for Hamas:

Hamas’s strategy thus far has been to sit back and watch Fatah fail, let the peace process crumble, and remain standing as the only viable Palestinian alternative. Going for this deal now indicates that they feel they have something to lose by continuing to stand aloof. The change to an Egyptian government less willing to rigidly enforce the United States and Israel’s red lines was also almost certainly a contributing factor.

Further, Hamas has seen its support among Gazans drop considerably. Shikaki’s polling shows “50% of Gazans are ready to participate in demonstrations to demand regime change in the Gaza Strip,” where Hamas rules, while only 24 percent of those polled in the Fatah-ruled West Bank said the same. It’s also likely that Hamas feels vulnerable with its key Arab ally and patron Bashar al-Assad facing serious unrest in Syria. The growing challenge to its rule in Gaza by even more extreme Salafist factions may have Hamas worried about its future.

It’ll be interesting to see what comes of Egypt opening its borders with Gaza. On the one hand, that should generate some relief of the dire humanitarian situation. On the other hand, it will tempt Israel to try to permanently sever the West Bank from Gaza and push Gaza onto Egypt.

Security

Is Ron Paul Softening His Tone On Immigration?

Back in 2008, presidential candidate Ron Paul released a nasty campaign ad showing undocumented immigrants sneaking across the border. “Ron Paul wants border security now,” declared the ad. “Physically secure the border, no amnesty, no welfare to illegal aliens, end birthright citizenship, no more student visas from terrorist nations,” proclaims the narrator. Watch it:

Now, it appears Paul has softened his tone. In an interview session with John Stossel, Paul expressed some doubts about the restrictionist positions that usually characterize the far right:

I don’t believe in the open borders. But I don’t like the idea of people wanting to build walls and fences and guns and thinking that the immigrant is the evil monster and the immigrant becomes the scapegoat of everything. I think that’s very very bad.

I do not support amnesty. [...] I’m not for amnesty but it’s absolutely impossible to think that anybody — no matter strongly feel against illegals — they’re not going to round up 12 or 15 million people. It doesn’t make any sense.

Watch it:

Paul also pointed out that “the purist Libertarian viewpoint is totally open-borders.” Yet, he quickly clarified that, “I don’t endorse that, I don’t think we are quite able to do that as long as people can come in here and take advantage of the welfare system.”

If that’s Paul’s only hesitation, he may want to take a closer a look and who actually qualifies to receive public benefits. Undocumented immigrants don’t qualify for any of the benefits of the “welfare system.” They do receive emergency care and their children can attend public schools. That is about it when it comes to the benefits that they are allowed to receive.

Of course, an open borders policy is totally unrealistic. Yet, Paul’s tempered position stands in sharp contrast to that of his son’s. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). When Sen. Paul was running for office, he infamously proposed building an underground electric fence. He later “clarified” that he would prefer it be built above ground.

Ron Paul announced earlier this week that he is forming a presidential exploratory committee.

Yglesias

The Richer You Are, The More Likely You Are To Think The Economy Is Growing Nicely

Catherine Rampell gives us another look at the elite insulation from the continuing bleakness in the labor market:

This makes sense: Rich people have seen more improvements than the poor in the last few years, considering factors like the rise in the stock market (which primarily benefits wealthier Americans) and the surge in commodity prices (which disproportionately hurt the poor).

Members of congress, important media figures, and the people they hear from are all (of course) from that higher income demographic.

Politics

VIDEO: Town Hall Citizens Confront Rep. Grimm Over Vote To Kill Medicare And Give More Tax Cuts To Rich

On Wednesday, Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) held a town hall meeting with constituents in Brooklyn. As video posted on YouTube shows, his constituents peppered him with questions about the GOP budget and were clearly outraged by his vote to end Medicare and give even more tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans.

During one exchange, a frustrated constituent who works in the medical industry explained that we can’t dismantle Medicare because it would devastate seniors, drawing huge applause from the audience. Later, a frustrated Grimm asked the audience if they were all against the GOP budget, to which they responded with a chorus of “Yes!” The audience repeatedly demanded an end to the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Watch a video compilation of highlights from the town hall:

“I think most of the people here did not buy what he was selling,” Grimm constituent Peggy Devane told local news source WNYC. “He didn’t listen to people. He said yes, yes. He followed his script and he is Republican and it is what he thinks.” (h/t: YouTube account taxdayvideosny)

Alyssa

Q&A: Greg Marinovich on the Risks and Rewards of Combat Photography

By Alyssa Rosenberg

After I saw The Bang Bang Club, a movie about combat photography in South Africa (reviewed here), I sat down with Greg Marinovich, whose 2001 memoir of the same name is the basis for the film to talk about the risks and highs of combat photography, the impact of amateur video on photojournalism, and his next book project. This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

You mentioned that you, Ken [Oosterbroek] and Kevin [Carter, both photographers with whom Marinovich worked in South Africa] all did some military service. How did that experience impact your work as photographers?

We had such different experiences. Ken did his miltiary service and then continued to do…service in the townships. I processed old pictures of his after his death. He had piles and piles of rolls of film, black and white…They were fifteen years old. He’d never gotten around to processing them. So João [Silva, the New York Times photographer injured in Afghanistan last year, who is a long-time friend of Marinovich's], myself ,and Gary Bernard took to processing these. Because they were so old, we did lots of tests. You’re a photo buff, you know how much fun this was. And some of the pictures were from his time as a conscript in the townships. He’s got pictures of his fellow conscripts pulling down UDF posters in the townships, these guys in uniforms and armored vehicles…João missed military service. I don’t know how. He was telling me that he remembers his parents going to see a general in Praetoria. He’s not sure if money changed hands, or how, but he was not conscripted…Kevin got into a lot of trouble in the military, essentially by trying to combat the racism of his fellow conscripts. And I reckon thinking I didn’t have to work within the system. I was wrong. I had two years of absolute misery and chaos and accusations of being a communist and all that kind of stuff.

But did those experiences influence the kinds of pictures you shot, the things you looked for?

[The war in which Ken saw combat] was a border war. It was a guerilla war on the border war with armed people and against armed people, whereas what was happening in the 90s in the townships, was most of it unarmed, a lot of it unarmed. The combatants were essentially unarmed, one in a hundred people would have a weapon. So I don’t think that would have had an influence. It wasn’t a war in the sense of any kind of guerilla or formal war. It was, how does one describe it? How does one describe five thousand people coming out of a hostel in a traditional zulu regiment, some of them armed with weapons, but the rest of them with sticks, and machetes and stuff? I don’t think any kind of military training would prepare you for that. Read more

Alyssa

Review: ‘The Bang Bang Club’

By Alyssa Rosenberg

I spoke with Greg Marinovich, the author of the memoir on which this movie is based, and its main character, yesterday. Our conversation is available here.

I heard that photographer Tim Hetherington had been killed in Libya last week as I was walking into a critics screening of The Bang Bang Club, which opens in Washington, DC today and has been playing in Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago since April 22. Hetherington’s death will probably prompt a great many people to watch Restrepo, the excellent documentary about an American platoon stationed in Afghanistan that he directed with journalist Sebastian Junger. But viewers who are curious about how photographers and videographers capture the kinds of images that make Restrepo so powerful, and the ethical and emotional complexities of photographing combatants, ought to check out The Bang Bang Club too. It’s an occasionally uneven movie, but often a beautiful one, and serious about the practice of journalism in a way little popular culture ever is.

The movie’s title comes most recently from a 2001 memoir by Greg Marinovich and João Silva, itself drawn from a joking nickname for the group of photographers who covered the undeclared war in South Africa in the leadup to the end of apartheid. Ryan Phillipe is Marinovich, South African actors Neels Van Jaarsveld and Frank Rautenbach play Silva and Ken Oosterbroek, and Friday Night Lights‘ Taylor Kitsch rounds out the group of photographers as glammed-up Kevin Carter.

The acting is imperfect: Malin Ackerman is clearly trying to establish her credentials as a serious actress by playing Star photo editor Robin Comley, but she’s mostly eye candy (as are the other female characters). Kitsch is very funny in one drug-addled scene, but it takes more than prettily downcast eyes to convey Carter’s combination of addiction, financial insecurity, and emotional strain. But Van Jaarsveld manages to be simultaneously belligerent and vulnerable as Silva. And Phillipe’s performance is a reminder, along with his tense FBI agent in Breach and his tormented soldier on the run in Stop-Loss, that he can be an unusually morally serious and thoughtful actor without being a dull one. A scene late in the movie where he runs back and forth across a road in the middle of a firefight to buy Cokes from a tuck stand is an impeccably staged action sequence, an exhibition of recklessness and humor. Read more

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