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Yglesias

The Earth Looks Roughly Spherical

Don Boudreaux doesn’t like Keynesian economics:

It’s understandable that many people untutored in economics fall for this nonsense. Just as many untutored in geography naturally think the Earth is flat (looks that way, doesn’t it?), many untutored in economics, upon seeing businesses closing up and workers being laid off, conclude that the problem is inadequate spending (looks that way, doesn’t it?).

This is a mighty strange mode of argument given that Karl Smith and Greg Mankiw and Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman and Ben Bernanke and Doug Elmendorf and Scott Sumner and the late Milton Friedman and all the many, many, many economists working with frameworks in which spending shocks cause output fluctuations clearly aren’t “untutored” in economics. But I want to discuss the other horn of the analogy. People assert all the time that the Earth “looks” flat, but it’s hard to know how to understand this. The Earth looks exactly the way a large roughly spherical object would look precisely because it is a large spherical object. If you sit in a boat on the open ocean, the angle between your eye and the surface of the water changes only very slowly but eventually you hit a horizon line when you can’t see beyond the curvature of the earth. If you move forward, you’ll see that you don’t get any “closer” to the horizon. If the Earth were something other than a large roughly spherical object, it would look different. You’d be able to move close to the horizon, or there’d be an illusion of convexity as the angle between the surface of the water and your eye decreased with distance.

This whole subject is often filled with myth. They still seem to teach some people in school that Christopher Columbus’ voyage was controversial because some people didn’t believe that the world was round. In fact, most cultures that commenced seafaring independently uncovered the fact that the Earth is roughly spherical precisely because the Earth looks like a sphere once you go someplace where you can get the relevant perspective. By the time of Columbus, the spherical nature of the Earth had been well-understood in the West for a couple thousand years. He had trouble attracting support for his voyage because skeptics argued (correctly) that Columbus was vastly underestimating the distance between the western coast of Europe and the eastern coast of China.

Back to economics, it looks like spending shocks can reduce output because spending shocks reduce output. If something else were the case, things would look different. If the Earth were flat, it wouldn’t look like a sphere.

Economy

On Third Anniversary Of The 2008 Financial Crisis, GOP Candidates Pledge To ‘Free Up’ Wall Street

Three years ago this week, the 2008 financial crisis began in earnest with the Sept. 15 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the $85 billion bailout of insurance giant American International Group one day later. Those events set in motion the spiral that resulted in the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

In the Great Recession that followed this Wall Street-driven meltdown, 14 million Americans lost their jobs and $20 trillion in wealth was destroyed. However, the candidates on stage during last night’s Republican presidential primary debate seem to be suffering from a severe case of amnesia when it comes to the financial crisis, as several of them called for repealing the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, with Texas Gov. Rick Perry going so far as to criticize the Obama administration for its failure to “free up” Wall Street:

RICK PERRY: This president does not understand how to free up the small businessmen and women or, for that matter, Wall Street. You give people the opportunity to risk their capital by lowering the tax burden on them, by lowering the regulatory climate, and you will see an American economy that takes off like a rocket ship.

MICHELE BACHMANN: I know we can do so much better in this country. That’s why I’m the chief author of the bill to repeal Dodd-Frank, the bill to repeal Obamacare. And that’s why I brought the voice of the Tea Party to the United States Congress as the founder of the Tea Party Caucus.

JON HUNTSMAN: We cannot go forward with Dodd-Frank, because businesses in this country are saying there’s no predictability, there’s no ability to see around the bend, we don’t know what costs are going to be, we’re not hiring and bringing new people on.

Watch a compilation:

It’d odd that Perry think Wall Street isn’t “free” at the moment. After all, Wall Street banks are pulling in record profits. But it’s not only the GOP suffering from regulation delusions: JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon this week criticized higher capital requirements for bank as “un-American.” Evidently, Dimon and the GOP candidates have forgotten — or are blatantly ignoring — that just three years ago their philosophy brought the global economy to the brink of collapse.

Alyssa

‘Deadwood’ Late Pass: Race, Patient Advocacy, And Freedom Of The Press In ‘Complications’ And ‘Something Very Expensive’

A.W. Merrick’s been a cheerful if somewhat marginal figure in our story up until this point. And so the journalist in me was delighted to see A.W. stand up for himself in matters of business and the heart, and to call out Cy Tolliver for interfering with him. First, Commissioner Jarry shows up in A.W.’s office, thinking he can boss the jovial newsman around with a mere “Great respect for the fourth estate. Here’s a statement to be printed.” But A.W. may back down to Al Swearengen in matters of phrasing, but he is no fool about the nature of his community, especially when he sees how meaningless that statement on property rights is. He is, after all, an investor in Deadwood himself. “What will exactly will or won’t qualify or mitigate the presumption of ownership eludes me,” he warns Jarry. “Without an accompanying explanation this statement may work an unsettling effect.” When Jarry tries to bully him, A.W. sticks to his guns and rather than puts out the paper, prints the notice, and sticks around to interpret it.

And when Cy Tolliver, snakelike as always, has A.W.’s press smashed (“Got any sledgehammers?” asks his goon. “Always,” Cy replies, very nearly twirling his moustache.), A.W. confronts him, declaring “We differ, Mr. Tolliver, on the function of the press.” Cy may think he’s being smooth when he mock-queries “Ain’t the lesson for you in this, Merrick, that with fucked-up machinery the press can’t function.” But I don’t think we’ve seen the last of A.W. Maybe it’s that he’s energized by the presence in town of the new schoolmarm (“How I revere your, your profession,” is the new best dorky compliment a guy can give.) or maybe it’s just that he’s found an issue that galvanizes him. But it’s nice to see the president of the Ambulators get his chance to be a hero.
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NEWS FLASH

Even Redstate Can’t Ignore Michele Bachmann’s Constitutional Ignorance | The core of the Tea Party’s bizarre belief that everything from Social Security to Medicare to the Affordable Care Act violates the Constitution is tentherism — the belief that the 10th Amendment renders the United States as a whole almost completely impotent and leaves the most basic governance decisions up to the states. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), however doesn’t even understand how this phony tenther constitution works and she has repeatedly insisted that laws such as the Affordable Care Act are unconstitutional even at the state level. Indeed, Bachmann’s failure to understand the Tea Party’s fake constitution is so striking that the leading conservative blog RedState has had it with her “constitutional ignorance.” Bachmann’s failure to understand tentherism “is either ignorance on display or dishonest pandering,” according to RedState.

Climate Progress

Obama Campaign Manager Greeted By Tar Sands Protesters At Harvard

Photo by Vanessa Rule.

Activists seasoned by weeks of civil disobedience in front of the White House dogged President Obama’s campaign manager today over the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline. Jim Messina was greeted by about 40 protesters when he came to Harvard University to speak, including over a dozen activists who had been arrested during the White House protests. A majority of the activists had volunteered or worked for Obama’s election in 2008. As Messina tried to evade the rally, the protesters cried:

Obama can stop the pipeline, Yes He Can!

If Obama approves the tar sands pipeline, the protesters would no longer volunteer their time and effort for his re-election.

“Messina can probably expect my vote for Obama, but if he wants me to be excited about the campaign, to donate money and knock on doors like I did last time, President Obama needs to stop this pipeline,” protester Craig Altemose told ThinkProgress. Altemose, the executive director of the Better Future Project, is a graduate of Harvard Law School (like Obama), and was one of the more than 1,000 people arrested at the White House tar sands protests.

Update

From Danny Berchenco, Obama’s motorcade in Columbus, Ohio was also met by Keystone XL protests today:

Update

At FireDogLake, John Chandley reports from the Harvard protest:

President Obama’s reelection campaign chairman, Jim Messina recently told reporters that Obama supporters would be fine once the campaign explained all the Administration had accomplished. “No one is calling me up yelling,” he insisted.

That changed today, when between 40-50 Tar Sands protesters, mostly Harvard students and folks from local environmental groups and several of whom had recently been arrested in front of the White House, showed up to greet Messina as he entered a Harvard dorm complex to speak to the few who bothered to show up to listen to him.

NEWS FLASH

Extending Housing Benefits To Same-Sex Couples After Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Repeal | Following the official repeal of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, the Department of Defense should “immediately extend all legally feasible benefits to same-sex couples” like on-base family housing and regulatory definitions for dependents and family members to include same-sex couples, CAP’s Laura Conley and Lawrence Korb write in a new editorial. The Pentagon working group which studied the repeal process concluded that some benefits like hospital visitation rights and life insurance beneficiary status, “were already eligible to be directed to a person of the service member’s choosing” while others — like free legal assistance — could be made available by the Department. Fearing political pressures, however, the group specifically recommended that “DOD not include on-base family housing” in the initial modifications.

NEWS FLASH

House Dem Introduces Bill To Cut Military Aid To Countries That Support Palestinian U.N. Bid | Adam Kredo reports that Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) introduced a bill yesterday that would end U.S. military aid to any country that votes in support of Palestinian membership next week at the United Nations. As Kredo notes, “The legislation threatens to cut-off funding to those nations who take part in the Foreign Military Financing program, a U.S.-run initiative that provides loans for American military equipment and training” but “the president would be given the option to waive the prohibition on a case-by-case basis.”

Yglesias

Elmendorf: Stimulus Now, Austerity Later

CBO Chief Doug Elmendorf testified today before the Supercommittee and said, sensibly, that “[t]he combination of fiscal policies that would be most effective would be policies that cut taxes or increase spending in the near-term, but over the medium and longer-term move in the opposite direction.” In other words, the sort of thing that President Obama proposed in his jobs bill. Higher deficits in the short term when interest rates are low and the output gap is large, followed by lower deficits down the road when (hopefully) the situation will be different.

Clearly that leaves plenty of room for disagreement around the margins about exactly which measures to adopt. But if members of Congress were willing to broadly accept Elmendorf’s ideas, we’d have an easy time working out a compromise. Instead, we live in a world where compromise is impossible because senior House aides are running around saying “Obama Is On The Ropes; Why Do We Appear Ready To Hand Him A Win?”

A legislative compromise on a bill that has a meaningful positive impact on the economy is, by definition, going to be a “win” for President Obama. It would also be a win for the American people. But if you think that beating Obama is the best thing for the long-term interests of the country, then you’ll quite sensibly work to deny him that win. Thus, no compromise and no recovery.

Climate Progress

Obama Proposes Cutting Oil and Gas Subsidies $41 Billion to Help Fund Jobs Package

Just when it seemed like the debate about repealing oil and gas subsidies had faded away, President Obama gave the issue new life. Speaking at the White House yesterday, Obama proposed cutting certain tax credits to profitable oil and gas companies to pay for part of his $467 billion job-creation package.

“The bottom line is, when it comes to strengthening the economy and balancing our books, we’ve got to decide what our priorities are,” he said, speaking in the White House Rose Garden. “Do we keep tax loopholes for oil companies, or do we put teachers back to work?”

The president seems to have support from the American public. In a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted this July, 59% of Americans said they supported repealing permanent tax breaks for fossil fuel companies to reduce the deficit. While the funds would be used for a jobs plan rather than deficit reduction, the President and Democratic members of Congress are hoping to ride that support.

In an interview with Climate Progress last month, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he was bullish on the oil and gas subsidy issue. Even while expressing doubts about getting support for extending clean energy incentives, Reid said he believed it is possible to roll back certain permanent tax credits in the fossil energy sector:

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NEWS FLASH

Seattle City Council Approves Paid Sick Days Bill | Seattle’s city council yesterday approved a bill requiring employers with more than five employees provide their workers with a minimum five days of paid sick leave. Mayor Mike McGinn (D) is expected to sign the bill, which would make Seattle just the third U.S. city, after San Francisco and Washington, D.C., to approve paid sick days legislation. Earlier this year, Connecticut became the first state to pass a paid sick leave bill.

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