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Security

Report: Israeli Attack On Iran ‘Could Backfire’

Foreign policy hawks frequently portray military action against Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program as a preferable alternative to the possible outcome of a nuclear weapons possessing Iran. While President Obama remains committed to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, telling an audience in March that, “Iran’s leaders should know that I do not have a policy of containment,” a report released yesterday by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) explores the policy implications of a nuclear armed Iran and the potential repercussions of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The report, whose authors include Colin Kahl, a former top Middle East policy official at the Pentagon, concurs with Israeli, U.S. and IAEA reports that Iran’s leadership has not yet committed to constructing a nuclear weapon. More importantly, “if Iran’s nuclear progress continues, the supreme leader could conceivably be satisfied with stopping at a ‘threshold’ capability just short of full-fledged weaponization,” reads the report.

And while a nuclear armed Iran would “be more aggressive and dangerous than an Iran without nuclear weapons,” Kahl and his coauthors Melissa Dalton and Matthew Irvine find that “Iran is unlikely to deliberately use a nuclear weapon or transfer a nuclear device to terrorists for use against Israel.”

Addressing policymakers, the CNAS report, “Risk And Rivalry: Iran, Israel And The Bomb,” advise that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon should remain a priority and that Israeli and U.S. policymakers should avoid drawing red-lines and taking “steps that limit diplomatic options.”

The CNAS authors find that an Israeli strike on Iran “would likely backfire, increasing the risks to Israeli security and regional stability” and a U.S. attack could, at best, produce “a significant delay in Iran’s nuclear program.”

While a nuclear armed Iran is, as the authors acknowledge, a dangerous outcome, they push-back at the notion that Iran’s leadership is suicidal and irrational, finding that “the actual behavior of the Islamic Republic over the past three decades indicates that the regime is not suicidal and is sufficiently rational for nuclear deterrence.”

Economy

Study: Providing Housing For The Homeless Saves Government Money

According to the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority’s most recent data, there were more than 51,000 homeless individuals in Los Angeles county, which has one of the highest homeless populations in the country. But it turns out that programs to provide housing for these unlucky individuals actually helps LA save money.

A study conducted by a Los Angeles County research unit followed Project 50, which began in 2007 as a $3.6-million plan “to find the 50 people likeliest to die on skid row’s street — the hardest of the hard cases — and house them however possible.” Since the beginning of the project, “the number of participants has grown to 133.”

According to the study, the project yielded a net savings of $238,700, which is “equivalent to $4,774 for each apartment provided.” Zev Yaroslavsky, the project’s supervisor, articulated the logic of Project 50 in the following statement:

My notion was that front-end investment in social services and stable housing would not only prove to be vastly more humane, but less costly for the public treasury. This audit makes the case for accelerating the county’s efforts to house the chronically homeless and provide them with the critical social services they need.

The Department of Veterans Affairs, for one, began a program in 2011 modeled off of Project 50 that seeks to permanently house the “60 most vulnerable veterans.”

– Nina Liss-Schultz

LGBT

New Report Highlights Unique Struggles Faced By LGBT Youth

Today, the Human Rights Campaign released a new study analyzing the experiences of LGBT youth and found compelling evidence that the stigma and bullying they experience interrupts their ability to focus on their education and careers. Here are some of the compelling findings:

  • LGBT youth describe the “most important problem” in their lives as “non-accepting families” (26 percent), “school/bullying problems” (21 percent), and “fear of being out or open (18 percent), while non-LGBT youth were more concerned with “classes/exams/grades” (25 percent), “college/career” (14 percent), and “financial pressures related to college or job” (11 percent).
  • Non-LGBT youth were almost twice as likely to be happy (67 percent) than LGBT youth (37 percent).
  • Almost a third (29 percent) of LGBT youth feel they don’t have an adult they can talk to about personal problems, compared to just 17 percent of non-LGBT youth.
  • LGBT youth are more than twice as likely to experiment with alcohol and drugs (52 percent) than non-LGBT youth (22 percent).
  • LGBT youth are more than twice as like to have been verbally harassed at school (51 percent) than non-LGBT students (25 percent).
  • Nearly half (42 percent) of LGBT youth say their community is not accepting of LGBT people.
  • A third of LGBT youth (33 percent) say that their family is not accepting.
  • Almost all LGBT youth (92 percent) say that they hear negative messages about being LGBT.

Combined with the data from GLSEN’s 2009 school climate survey, it’s clear to see that bullying and homophobia are still rampant in schools across the country. These young people are optimistic, but the negative reactions they face for their identities is interfering with their life goals in disconcerting ways.

Election

Bush’s Latino Attorney General: Some Republicans Are ‘Anti-Hispanic’

Alberto Gonzalez, the first Latino United States Attorney General, said on Thursday that Mitt Romney needs to do more to connect with the Latino community. In an interview with Yahoo News, Gonzalez questioned whether Romney has really made an effort to reach out to Latinos, even as the campaign has tried to woo Latino voters:

“I think that members of our party have spoken about this in a way that’s not only anti-immigration but anti-Hispanic, and I think that’s harmful to the long term future of the party,” Gonzales said [...]

“Policy is important, but the tone is equally important,” he says. “He has to find some way to make a personal connection to the Hispanic community. Bush was able to do that. … Many of us had the sense that Bush understood us. He believed in us and we believed in him,” he said.

“I think [Bush] was able to make a personal connection, and I’m not sure that Governor Romney has done that yet.”

Romney’s position on issues important to Latinos, including the DREAM ACT and overall immigration policy, tend to differ from those of the majority of the Latino community. Gonzalez, on the other hand, is an advocate for some version of the DREAM Act and opposes Arizona’s SB 1070.

The former attorney general also reiterated that he did not believe Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), the prominent Latino vice presidential favorite, is ready to be president, saying, “What I try to emphasize is that I think a presidential nominee should look [for] someone who can be president on day one.”

Climate Progress

VIDEO SPOOF: Shell Has Its First ‘Spill’ At Its Arctic Drilling Launch Party

Come July, after $4 billion lobbying, Royal Dutch Shell will be the first oil company to begin drilling in the Arctic. A new video parodies what an inauspicious start would look like for the company.

In the spoof, Shell holds a private party celebrating its new drilling venture, with a centerpiece a mini-drilling rig that would theoretically pump liquor for the guests. Instead of safely delivering the liquor as promised, Shell’s mini-rig spewed it everywhere. Not able to contain it or stem the flow, some staff tried to at least cap it from causing more damage.

The parody parallels a disturbing reality of how Big Oil — including Shell — has handled its spills:




More seriously, the poor performance at the party reminds us of the very real concerns with Shell’s plans. The Government Accountability Office has cited concerns with Shell’s spill response plan, raising questions about whether the equipment could withstand the extreme conditions.

The insurance giant Lloyd’s of London expressed major concerns with Shell’s plans, warning of a “unique and hard-to-manage risk,” and WestLB bank refused to fund a project with such excessive risks. Even if a spill doesn’t occur, taxpayers are footing the bill for the Coast Guard to monitor Shell, just to ensure the company is following the law for its billions in profit.

Related Posts:

Health

Michigan Legislature To Ram Through Radical Anti-Abortion Measures

A bill that would outlaw abortion after 20 weeks, regardless of the woman’s or fetus’ health, is being pushed through the Michigan legislature on Thursday. The measure does not include an exception for rape or incest.

A Michigan House panel approved the legislation, HB 5711, as well as two supplements that restrict abortion access beyond 20 weeks of pregnancy and impose new regulations that could force several abortion clinics in the state to go out of business.

The House has now taken up the measure just a week after it was introduced and it is expected to advance to the state senate.

Several states — including Georgia and Arizona — have recently banned abortion after 20 weeks of gestation. In fact, a Congressman from Michigan recently proposed enacting the ban in Washington, DC.

NEWS FLASH

Stefany Hoyer Hemmer, Daughter Of House Democracy Whip Steny Hoyer, Comes Out As Lesbian | A few weeks after her father, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) came out for marriage equality, his daughter has come out as a lesbian American. Stefany Hoyer Hemmer told the Washington Blade “The momentum in Maryland right now for the adoption of the gay marriage law is fast-paced. I’m 43 years of age, and I’ve been gay my whole life and I just figured this is a good time to lend my name to the cause.”

NEWS FLASH

House Votes Not To Waste $25 Million On Dirty, Unproven Oil Shale | In a surprise vote last night, the House of Representatives voted to strip the Department of Energy of $25 million to be spent “unconventional fossil energy technologies” including oil shale.  The amendment, sponsored by Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO), would instead divert the money to deficit reduction.

As Ryan Alexander of Taxpayers for Common Sense described:

After putting up billions for oil shale over the last several decades, federal taxpayers have nothing to show for it.  In these tight budget times, we cannot afford to continue throwing good money at failed technology.

The vote was a tight 208-207, with 60 Republicans voting in favor.  Oil shale—not to be confused with shale oil—has never been commercially viable despite decades of attempts.  And even if it were commercially viable, it would be one of the dirtiest forms of energy ever to be developed.

Economy

Florida Workers Seeking Unemployment Benefits Hindered by New GOP Law

Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL)

In recent months, conservatives in many states have gutted unemployment benefits, arguing that doing so would motivate people to go back to work. In Florida, where Gov. Rick Scott (R) and the GOP legislature cut unemployment benefits to pay for corporate tax cuts, workers are claiming that a cumbersome new unemployment benefits system is preventing them from accessing their vital aid.

Two workers’ rights organizations, the National Employment Law Project and Florida Legal Services, have filed a complaint with the Department of Labor regarding the new system. Since August 1st, workers seeking unemployment benefits have been required to apply online and complete a 45-question math and reading test to determine their job skills, according to the complaint:

Most of these changes restricted access to benefits in some substantial way, by either altering existing claim procedures or adding new eligibility requirements. The cumulative impact of these changes is that the process of filing an initial claim for benefits is much more difficult for the average Floridian, and many potentially eligible claimants are being discouraged from filing.

The new system, named the “Reemployment Assistance Program,” was passed by the Republican legislature and signed by Scott in the spring of 2011. The burdensome test offers no assistance when making claims and fails to notify workers if their application is incomplete. With some library computers programmed to turn off after an hour’s use, many frustrated Floridians are forced to start their applications over or compelled to quit altogether.

As Scott boasts about Florida’s employment gains, 43,680 Floridians were denied benefits because they did not finish his test. Only 15 percent of unemployed Floridians drew benefits in the last quarter of 2011, compared to 27 percent nationwide.

–Steven Perlberg

Alyssa

Erykah Badu, The Flaming Lips’ ‘The First Time’ Video, Art, Collaboration and Consent

The exceedingly NSFW (and I really do mean that) video for The Flaming Lips ‘The First Time’ has been making the rounds for a while now—for those who can’t watch, it features Erykah Badu, who sings on the track, naked in a bathtub with eye makeup that makes her look bruised, and her sister, coated in variou liquids, in shots that show her full frontal nudity:

It’s an unsettling set of images, but I considered them perhaps more closely than I might have otherwise given Badu’s prior willingness to use her body in her video art. Except it turns out she’s deeply uncomfortable with the video, and alleges that Wayne Coyne produced a video that doesn’t accord with the vision he laid out to her, and released it without getting her approval on either the images or the lyrics in a violation of her contract. In a long Facebook post, she writes:

You showed me a concept of beautiful tasteful imagery( by way of vid text messages). I trusted that. I was mistaken…You begged me to sit in a tub of that other shit and I said naw. I refused to sit in any liquid that was not water. But Out of RESPECT for you and the artist you ‘appear’ to be, I Didn’t wanna kill your concept , wanted u to at least get it out of your head . After all, u spent your dough on studio , trip to Dallas etc.. Sooo, I invited Nayrok , my lil sis and artist, who is much more liberal ,to be subject of those other disturbing (to me ) scenes . I told u from jump that I believed your concept to be disturbing. But would give your edit a chance. You then said u would take my shots ( in clear water/ fully covered parts -seemed harmless enough) and Nayrok’s part ( which I was not present for but saw the photos and a sample scene of cornstarch dripping ) and edit them together along with cosmic, green screen images ( which no one saw) then would show me the edit. Instead, U disrespected me by releasing pics and rough vid on the internet without my approval. (Contract breech )

Coyne’s response has not been precisely illuminating. In a series of posts, he initially tweeted an apology to Badu’s fans who might have been offended by it, saying “We are very sorry if it has offended some of Erykah Badu’s more Conservative audience! The video was intended for mature audiences and is NOT an Erykah Badu statement.. It is a Flaming Lips video!!!” The band as also acknowledged that the video was unapproved and unfinished. But since Badu herself voiced objections, he’s resorted to retweeting affirmations of his work like “Seriously?! http://bit.ly/LyY6gF Erykah Badu should be thankful to @theflaminglips & @waynecoyne for reminding people she’s still around,” rather than addressing Badu’s claims that he violated both his contract with her and her sense of trust.

Women in American entertainment often have to go along to get along, to accommodate just one more request from a director. I can’t imagine how hard it must be to maintain your sense that you own your body under those circumstances, and I’m speaking as a white woman, rather than as a woman of color, who are subject to a different set of demands and historical circumstances. As a person in business, if you make a contract, you should honor it. And as an artist working with another artist on material she finds difficult or uncomfortable, if you want to get a good, usable performance out of that person, it seems like respect should be your first-order operating principal. Hollywood often treats hiring actresses and purchasing limited rights to their bodies as the same thing. If Coyne did, in fact, give Badu the right to sign off on the video before he released it and failed to do so, someone needs to tell him to cut down on the self-congratulation and start thinking more carefully about the right he’s asserted to use black women’s bodies for his own self-aggrandizement.

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