In September 2002, when the price of gas was $1.40 per gallon, White House senior economic adviser Laurence Lindsey predicted regime change in Iraq would lower oil prices:
As for the impact of a war with Iraq, “It depends how the war goes.” But [Bush senior economic adviser Laurence Lindsey] quickly adds that that “Under every plausible scenario, the negative effect will be quite small relative to the economic benefits that would come from a successful prosecution of the war.”
“The key issue is oil, and a regime change in Iraq would facilitate an increase in world oil,” which would drive down oil prices, giving the U.S. economy an added boost.
With oil prices above $70 a barrel fouling the world economy, dismay is focusing on Iraq, whose exports have slipped to their lowest levels since the 2003 invasion.
”Iraq could be making a tremendous difference,” said Dalton Garis, an economist at the Petroleum Institute in Abu Dhabi. Instead, its shortfall is ”a significant contributing factor to the high price of oil,” he said.