Escalation architect Fred Kagan

two months ago, on how Iraq was “turning the corner.”

The new effort to establish security in Iraq has begun. At this early stage, the most positive development is a rise in hostility to al-Qaida in the Sunni community. … [O]n balance, there is reason for wary optimism. … The most that can be said now is that we seem to be turning a corner.

Fred Kagan now: “More Time Needed.”

Kagan recommended waiting until the end of the year before judging the operation’s success. Even then, he added, it might be some months before Iraqis make the political compromises necessary to bring lasting stability to the country.