Juan Cole: Violence in Iraq ‘has not subsided.’

Appearing on the PBS News Hour last night, University of Michigan professor Juan Cole — who runs the blog Informed Comment — discussed the recent bombings in northern Iraq. Cole explained that such violence “is unstoppable by military means,” and “the only way” to quell it is for there to be political reconciliation between Sunni and Shiite groups. Cole debunked the myth that there has been progress on the security front:

You know, the number of Iraqis killed went up 25 percent in July over June. The number of troops killed in July was twice what it ordinarily has been in July. It depends on how you look at these numbers. There have been fewer big bombings; although, there still are big bombings, but there have been more people killed by sniper fire.

So the violence has not subsided, and the guerrilla resistance in the Sunni Arab regions is still very powerful. And there’s no sign of a political solution to this thing, which is the only real solution to this kind of guerrilla war. So I’m afraid I don’t think, if the report is honest, we’re going to see a lot of progress here.

Watch it:

Transcript:

COLE: Well, this kind of violence is unstoppable by military means. You couldn’t possibly guard all of the small villages in Iraq. There are still big bombs going off in downtown Baghdad. The only way realistically for this violence to end is for the Sunni Arab guerrilla groups that are behind it to be brought into the political process. You have to have something like what happened with the IRA in Britain.

[...]

COLE: Well, I think that we’ve got excellent personnel in Iraq. Ryan Crocker is an experienced ambassador to the region. General David Petraeus is among our best officers, especially on counterterrorism. But the task that they have been given is just insuperable.

You know, the number of Iraqis killed went up 25 percent in July over June. The number of troops killed in July was twice what it ordinarily has been in July. It depends on how you look at these numbers. There have been fewer big bombings; although, there still are big bombings, but there have been more people killed by sniper fire.

So the violence has not subsided, and the guerrilla resistance in the Sunni Arab regions is still very powerful. And there’s no sign of a political solution to this thing, which is the only real solution to this kind of guerrilla war. So I’m afraid I don’t think, if the report is honest, we’re going to see a lot of progress here.