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It’s worth saying that if a month ago, Team Obama had said their plan was to win out of the two first states and go from there, I think people would have considered that a prudently optimistic plan for victory. The temptation to massively overreact to the last thing that happened is something I warned about during the Iowa-NH interregnum, and the same is true today. In an election where most Democrats think there’s more than one candidate in the field who could make a good nominee, I think we should expect to see a lot of volatility.

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