Economists increasingly think recession is likely.

“There is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. economy will sink into recession this year, but any downturn will likely be short and shallow,” according to a survey of economists released by USA Today. “In October, the economists said there was a 30% chance of recession, according to the median answer, with only 6% of those surveyed saying the odds of a recession were greater than 50%. This month, nearly 1-in-3 put the odds at greater than 50%.”