In the interests of being less of an Obama-shill, let’s note that Nick Kristof really ought to dump this electability argument:
But one clue emerged in Tuesday’s balloting in 14 “red states” that were won by President George W. Bush in 2004. Mr. Obama won nine while Hillary Rodham Clinton won four and is ahead in the fifth.
But, look, Obama’s not going to win Utah so what’s the point of counting like this. Meanwhile, the idea that the primary electorate in state x is a good proxy for that state’s general election is badly flawed. The South Carolina Democratic primary, to cite a salient example, is a contest in which one’s appeal to white voters is not very important. A South Carolina general election isn’t like that at all. Conversely, the demographic magic that let Hillary Clinton win California while losing white voters and losing black voters isn’t going to work in a general election. Reasoning from independent facts, however, lets us know that this isn’t going to happen in HRC in California any more than Obama would lose New York.