As Expected

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"As Expected"

Chris Bowers notes an interesting finding: If you take the current Obama-McCain national polling matchup and compare it to the Kerry-Bush result in 2004, you’ll see an 8.1 percent swing in favor of the Democrats in the national popular vote. And if you apply an 8.1 percent swing in favor of the Democrats in each state, you get a map that’s really the same as the map produced by the current state-by-state polling:


Not the most earth-shattering result on the planet, but a useful reminder that even though in principle the Electoral College allows for crazy divergences from the popular vote result, in practice gains in national polling tend to be distributed fairly evenly. So if you want to keep tabs on the race over the summer months there’s probably no need to bother with the state-by-state polls.

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