UPDATE, JULY 29, 11:30AM: This vote count reflect the original Boehner plan submitted Monday night along with technical changes made later. Subsequently, Boehner added a requirement that a Balanced Budget Amendment be sent to the states before the debt ceiling is raised beyond $900 billion, which requires a 2/3 vote from both chambers of Congress. This totally unrealistic proposal will likely flip many of the votes of those listed below. ThinkProgress is ending its vote count.
Tonight at around 6 p.m., the House of Representatives will vote on the Boehner plan, which would create another debt ceiling crisis in less than six months and likely lead to a downgrade in U.S. credit. Boehner needs 216 votes to pass the plan. Since there are 240 Republican members of the House, Boehner can only afford to have 24 Republicans vote against the bill — provided he does not get any Democratic votes.
The conventional wisdom in the media and in political circles is that Boehner will find the votes to pass the bill. Usually, legislative leaders are able to twist enough arms to get key priorities passed.
But a careful review of public statements by House Republicans to the media and phone calls to congressional offices by ThinkProgress reveals that 26 House Republicans have already expressed opposition to the Boehner plan. Here’s the list:
1. Todd Akin (R-MO) [The Hill]
2. Justin Amash (R-MI) [The Hill]
3. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) [ThinkProgress]
4. Paul Broun (R-GA) [Call to office]
5. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) [The Hill]
6. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) [The State]
7. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) [Twitter]
8. Trent Franks (R-AZ) [National Journal]
9. Phil Gingrey (R-GA) [Twitter]
10. Louis Gohmert (R-TX) [National Review]
11. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) [NYT]
12. Tom Graves (R-GA) [Twitter]
13. Andy Harris (R-MD) [Baltimore Sun]
14. Tim Huelskamp (R-KS) [The Hill]
15. Steve King (R-IA) [The Hill]
16. Jim Jordan (R-OH) [The Hill]
17. Jeff Landry (R-LA) [National Review]
18. Connie Mack (R-FL) [Politico]
19. Mick Mulvaney (R-SC) [The Hill]
20. Ron Paul (R-TX) [Call to office]
21. Dennis Ross (R-FL) [National Review]
22. Steve Southerland (R-FL) [RCP]
23. Joe Walsh (R-IL) [MSNBC]
24. Joe Wilson (R-SC) [National Journal]
25. Tim Scott (R-SC) [Fox News, 4:20PM]
26. Tom McClintock (R-CA) [KBFK Radio]
Additionally, according to the Hill, two additional members — Michael Turner (R-OH) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ) — are leaning no.
Thus far, no House Democrats have publicly supported the Boehner plan.
This morning, Boehner acknowledged, “We do not have the votes yet.” Unless Boehner is able to switch the stated positions of numerous Republicans or attract substantial Democratic support, it’s likely to be a very close vote.
The Hill reports that Gosar, who was leaning no, now supports the Boehner plan.
Jamie Dupree reports that Democrat Maurice Hinchey will not be able to make it to the vote because he is undergoing cancer treatments. Therefore, the Boehner plan only needs 216 votes for passage.
The Hill is also reporting that Rep. Raul Labrador (R-ID) is also leaning no on the Boehner plan.
The Texas Tribune reports that Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) is also leaning no on the Boehner plan .
Dan Boren (D-OK), a Democratic House member who voted for Cut, Cap and Balance, will vote no on the Boehner plan. ThinkProgress confirmed his position with his office. Additionally, Greg Sargent of the Washington Post says no democrats will vote for the bill.
Freshman Chuck Fleischmann switches from no to yes.
Canseco says media reports that he was a no were incorrect. His spokeswoman says he’s undecided. New number is 25.
McClintock affirms his stance against the Boehner bill with KFBK radio in Sacramento, says it “doesn’t avert financial crisis.” The number is back to 26.