"Hadley Center to deniers: We are STILL warming"
The top climate scientists at the UK’s Hadley Center for Climate Prediction get no respect. No matter how many times they try to explain that their data clearly shows the world is warming (see “Hadley Center to delayers: We’re warming, not cooling“), people, including those commenting on this very blog, keep insisting their data shows otherwise (see here).
As I wrote before, the 8 warmest years in the 150 global temperature record are, according to the Hadley Center, in order, 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2007. After the Hadley folk wrote a bunch of essays debunking standard denier myths (see here and below), they actually felt compelled to publish another piece on April 29 (here), pointing out again:
The global climate is currently being influenced by the cold phase of this oscillation, known as La Ni±a (see Expert speaks on La Ni±a). The current La Ni±a began to develop in early 2007, having a significant cooling effect on the global average temperature. Despite this, 2007 was one of the ten warmest years since global records began in 1850 with a temperature some 0.4 °C above average. Indeed, the years 2001-2007 recorded an average of 0.44 °C above the 1961-90 average, which is 0.21 °C warmer than corresponding values for the years 1991-2000.
Another way of looking at the warming trend is that 1999 was a similar year to 2007 as far as the cooling effects of La Ni±a are concerned. The global temperature in 1999 was 0.26 °C above the 1961-90 average, whereas 2007 was 0.37 °C above this average – 0.11 °C warmer than 1999.
[Hadley doesn't even mention we are at a temporary solar irradiance minimum, which subtracts "no more than about 0.1°C," according to NASA (see "Hansen throws cold water on cooling climate claim.")]
And the Hadley folk predicted last year in Science (see here) that short-term warming is about to accelerate (just as the recent Nature article did, see here), and they reiterated that prediction in their April 29 post:
Ten-year forecasts produced by the Met Office Hadley Centre capture this levelling of global temperatures in the middle of the decade; effectively La Ni±a has been masking the underlying trend in rising temperatures. These same forecasts also predict we will experience continued and increased warming into the next decade, with half the years between 2009 and 2014 being warmer than the current warmest on record, 1998.
All you “coolers” out their have continually rejected my offers of a simple bet that the 2010s will be warmer than this decade. I’ll even spot you 0.1°C or give you 2-to-1 odds — which is much more than generous. Needless to say, while many people repeat the Big Lie, few actually believe it enough to put their money behind it.
Let me end with the links to the “known facts about climate change” discussed by the Hadley folk:
- Fact 1: Climate change is happening and humans are contributing to it.
- Fact 2: Temperatures are continuing to rise [duh!].
- Fact 3: The current climate change is not just part of a natural cycle.
- Fact 4: Recent warming cannot be explained by the Sun or natural factors alone.
- Fact 5: If we continue emitting greenhouse gases this warming will continue and delaying action will make the problem more difficult to fix.
- Fact 6: Climate models predict the main features of future climate.
- Myth 1: The intensity of cosmic rays changes climate.