The corrected NASA temperature data for October is out here. It looks to be around the sixth warmest October on record, although interestingly (though not unexpectedly, see below), the five warmest Octobers on record are all from the previous 5 years.
I don’t normally blog on the NASA monthly data, but the tiny temporary tizzy-inspiring data entry trouble NASA had a couple of days ago warrants follow up (see “The hottest October on record?“). You can read the ongoing back-and-forth in the comments section of RealClimate’s “mountains and molehills” post.
I will wait for NOAA’s monthly National Climatic Data Center update in a few days — and then the final year end data from NASA and Hadley — before drawing any significant conclusions. But assuming these numbers don’t change much, it is worth noting that now the last two months and three of the last four have had a pretty big temperature anomaly, which suggests we may be be over the cooling effects of the La Ni±a earlier this year.
I would add that we would expect the greatest warming trend in the Arctic because the loss of sea ice exposes the open ocean directly to the air. Unfortunately, there are exceedingly few temperature stations over the Arctic. So while anomalously warm Octobers are going to be the norm, the current data sets probably underestimate northern hemisphere autumnal warming. But don’t tell that any deniers or delayers, unless you want to put them into a tiny temporary tizzy. That is NASA’s job!
Previous in TP Climate Progress
“it is worth noting that now the last two months and three of the last four have had a pretty big temperature anomaly, which suggests we may be be over the cooling effects of the La Niña earlier this year.”
NOAA has started to predict a return to La Nina for early 2009, however:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
I had been hoping for a strong El Nino to make 2009 a record-buster to go with Obama’s first year in office, but it looks like the pacific ocean is just going to feed the deniers again. Looks like the Great Ice Age of 2008 may be back this winter.
Great link. As I read it, NOAA saying that 2009 looks to be ENSO-neutral with perhaps a mild La Nina over the winter.
“it is worth noting that now the last two months and three of the last four have had a pretty big temperature anomaly, which suggests we may be be over the cooling effects of the La Niña earlier this year.”
We are indeed over the La Nina. However, the temp anomolies for RSS, UAH, and HadCrut3 are still below the flat trend line for the last decade. And they are still nowhere close to where they should be had we actually had a .2C decadal rise.
[JR: That statement has no factual basis, as Hadley's and NASA's analysis makes clear.]
“I had been hoping for a strong El Nino to make 2009 a record-buster”
Your hope shows that you are another of the agenda driven alarmists. Your lust for bad news shows that you could actually care less about the climate. You just want the political leverage that AGW gives you.
[JR: HH, you just don't get it. What is desired is the political will to stop AGW from destroying the planet's habitability. Virtually every commenter but you on this blog cares deeply about the climate and future generations.]
If I was just an alarmist, then I’d also be *incorrect*, and if we got another strong el nino year there would be nothing to fear. If I was wrong then even in a strong el nino year, temperatures would still be declining since 1998. Nothing to worry about if I’m wrong. Its only if AGW theories are actually correct that a strong El Nino year would lead to an absolute record breaking year in global air temperature in which case, yes, you should be alarmed. So lets bring on a strong El Nino and settle this bet. And you should want this, too, since if we get a strong El Nino *without* any corresponding increase in global temperature that would probably do some damage to Obama’s ability to push his agenda. We both probably know that isn’t going to happen though.
“Great link. As I read it, NOAA saying that 2009 looks to be ENSO-neutral with perhaps a mild La Nina over the winter.”
That’s odd, I could have sworn I read earlier this week that they had switched to calling for mild la nina early 2009. I wonder if they updated the slides.
I’ve been watching that report on a weekly basis, though, and the trend of the projections has been towards increasing the chances of a la nina again early next year….
…
Oh, check the third-to-last page where they state “The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) indicates La Nina conditions through mid-2009″. So maybe its just the computer ensemble that is calling it, but the forecasters are hedging their bets more.
Nothing seems to be predicting an El Nino, though, so we can probably expect colder ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions next year…
James Hansen and his NASA clones exposed again as global warming hoaxers.
[JR: Rest of disinformation deleted. Seriously, deniers, peddle your anti-scientific nonsense someplace else. Oh, and yes, NASA did land men on the moon and return them. Really!]
Busted!!!!!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml
Joe wrote: “it is worth noting that now the last two months and three of the last four have had a pretty big temperature anomaly”
I thought it may be worth noting that these three-out-of-four-months’ anomalies are, according to GISS, +0.52 (July), +0.50 (September) and +0.55 (October) degrees. And that the average monthly anomaly for the last 6 years (i.e. since October 2002) according to the same source was +0.527. So, the worst that you can say is that these especially hot months (compared with the rest of the months in 2008) are just in line with the average anomaly of the last 6 years. Which is hardly an indication of an incoming warming.
(It also means that 8 of the, so far, 10 months of registered temperatures in 2008 were below that average, and in some cases, quite far below).
Then you’d be happy to bet that the next decade won’t be warmer than this decade. $1000 anyone?
On June 2, 2008, Clarendon, TX had 107 degrees f followed by 103 degrees on the 3rd and 105 on the 4th of June 2008. Global warming is here to stay for some time.
Joe,
What’s the point in betting if you will ban whoever bets against? It would be a bit difficult to get the money later. I talk from personal experience.
DNJ: Got no idea what you are talking about? I have plenty of bets out there already.