NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center released its monthly El Ni±o/Southern oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion:
A weak El Ni±o continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Consistent with this warmth, the latest weekly values of the Ni±o-region SST indices were between +0.7°C to +1.0°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies continued to reflect a deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the central Pacific. Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind anomalies continued to become better established over parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Ni±o.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Ni±o-3.4 SST index suggest El Ni±o will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Ni±o-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Ni±o (3-month Ni±o-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Ni±o will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Ni±o into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Ni±o during the winter 2009-10.
This should be enough to drive us to record temperatures, but there is typically a few month delay between an El Ni±o and the full global temperature impact. So if this is only a moderate El Ni±o but it lasts through the winter, then it may be 2010 that is the record. For more details on the implications, see here.
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A lecture on ocean acidification: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQMZfCKuFIQ
The global warming deniers will be very disappointed to learn that their favorite satellite analysis continues to show global warming. July 2nd warmest, August 5th warmest; basically right in line with the surface analyses. Maybe a new record coming up this month?
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/amsutemps.html
It appears the chances for a strong el Nino are pretty low at this point, as Nino region SST anomalies haven’t increased in more than a month. “Weak to moderate” sounds about right. Even with very low sustained levels of solar activity for the past few years, a weak el Nino may indeed be enough to break a record in 2010, unless we see a repeat of 2007 where conditions quickly transition to la Nina in the 2nd half. No guarantees. “Likely” is a fair probability assessment.
OK, so meteorologist are finally coming round to the fact of Climate Change. Phew!
Be prepared for extreme weather: SFU Report
Communities will need to expect the worst
http://news1130.com/more.jsp?content=20090910_084843_13700
…weather guru, meteorologist Russ Lacate, explain we have seen a spike in extreme weather events, “It seems we have had more frequent extreme weather related events lately — from the devastating interior fires of 2003 to the Stanley Park windstorm of 2006. Of course we had the paralyzing, heavy snow in the Lower Mainland last winter and this summer we had the all-time record-breaking heat wave.”
Posted by paulm | September 10, 2009 11:42 AM
And here I was thinking we might just get proper spring rains in SE Australia this year after the relatively wet winter we just had. Sadly not. Looks like it’s going to be more long, hot and dry summers for us!