Hottest September in satellite record; new daily high temperature records outpace record lows by 5-to-1

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"Hottest September in satellite record; new daily high temperature records outpace record lows by 5-to-1"

ENDLESS SUMMER:  September was the hottest on record globally in the RSS satellite dataset.  In this country, the record-smashing temperatures in Southern California got most of the attention (see “No on Prop 23: It’s getting HOT out here!“)

But, as Steve Scolnik of CapitalClimate reports, “that event was just one of literally thousands of daily high temperature records set in the U.S. during September,” continuing a trend that has persisted for almost the entire year.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oy2DMM6iwUU/TKo3kxZuF5I/AAAAAAAABz0/atyImuK90d4/s1600/temp.records.100410.gif

I like the statistical aggregation across the country, since it gets us beyond the oft-repeated point that you can’t pin any one record temperature on global warming.  If you want to know how to judge whether the 5.2-to-1 ratio for September is a big deal, here’s what a 2009 National Center for Atmospheric Research study found for “1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States” over the past six decades (see “Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S.“):

temps

Scolnik notes:

In September, daily high temperature records numbered nearly 2400, roughly 1/3 above the previous monthly high for the year, slightly less than 1800 in April. With only 459 daily low temperature records, the ratio of heat records to cold records was 5.2:1, the highest for any month since April’s 6.1:1 dominated the spring statistics. The year-to-date ratio has now risen to 2.6:1. Every month this year from March onward has had at least twice as many heat records as cold records, except for May, when the ratio was 1.4:1.

September also had a large number of record high minimum temperatures (1,286) vs. low maximums (557), a ratio of 2.3:1.

NCAR explained their findings this way:

Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb.

Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). “The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting.”

I also love the chart below, via Weather historian Christopher C. Burt.   His post at Weather Underground, “The Remarkable Summer of 2010,” concludes, “it is probable that no warmer summer in the Northern Hemisphere has ever been experienced by so many people in world history.”

On the other hand, the global record temperatures we’re seeing now are especially impressive because we’ve been in “the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century.” It’s just hard to stop the march of manmade global warming, other than by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions, that is.

Tom Peterson, Chief Scientist for NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, said of the hot U.S. spring, “We’re getting a dramatic taste of the kind of weather we are on course to bequeath to our grandchildren.”  But a new analysis by NASA’s James Hansen published last week concluded, “Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could reach a high level in 2012” — see Hansen: Would recent extreme “events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?” The “appropriate answer” is “almost certainly not.” So 2012 may feel a lot like 2010.

For new readers, here’s the caption on the top figure:

Total number of daily high and low temperature records set in the U.S. for spring 2010 (March-April-May) and monthly from June through September 2010, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose. Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC’s Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.

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42 Responses to Hottest September in satellite record; new daily high temperature records outpace record lows by 5-to-1

  1. paulm says:

    THis can still be misleading, because even in the 50s, 60s, 70s we were experiencing GW.

  2. Bob Doublin says:

    I remember back in 1983 I went with the Seattle Men’s Chorus to Washington DC to perform before going to New York. We left a 53F for a high Seattle a few days before Labor Day to a 96F 96% humidity DC. People told us how unusual it was to be so hot around Labor Day (I came down with walking pneumonia). I reminisced about this upon hearing how DC had the latest in September 99F day ever this year-at least 3 weeks later than my little adventure.I wonder what kind of nostalgia people will have another 30 years from now?
    I can’t remember the last time Seattle was at let alone below the average low in the last few weeks. We haven’t had warm HIGHS but the lows have been playing out just as the science predicts about it not cooling off as much overnight.

  3. Misleading in what sense?

  4. Richard Brenne says:

    paulm (#1) – I always appreciate your thoughtful comments, and I agree with you that there was AGW during the 1950s, 60s and 70s though at a much-reduced rate relative to today.

    The warming we would have seen (and that went into the oceans, as always far more than into the atmosphere) was likely countered by the far less-clean combustion of all kinds during those decades that put more opaque particulates into the atmosphere that blocked sunlight and caused plateaus or slight cooling during those decades relative to the ones before and especially after.

    But I think this posting is phenomenal, no matter how many times some of us might have seen this stuff before. It can’t be repeated too often and CapitalClimate (I’d love to know your name if you care to share) and Joe and all the others quoted and putting together this data have each done a great job and service – let’s all keep it up and spread the word (as I’m doing at two large conferences of science teachers in the next two weeks)!

    In fact if there’s any posting I would (and will) share with science teachers, it’s this one (and Hansen’s, and, well, all of them – I tell everyone about this site).

  5. Peter Bellin says:

    This trend is one which drives home the fact of global warming. I agree that it gets well beyond the question of weather, and looks like an acceleration of the warming.

    (I think there is a typo in the quote from Scolnik, “slightly less than 1800 in April” – the 1800 should perhaps be 2800.)

    In any case, this is powerful stuff. I wonder if there are data on extreme precipitation events, say more than 10 inches in a day. When I peruse the weather page in the newspaper, I often note extreme rain events, but no mention of these in the newspaper. I think that would be another indicator of climate change.

  6. Marcia Shimamoto says:

    I live in southern Colorado at 7,000 feet of elevation. Our average date of first fall freeze is September 6. As I write, October 4, we still have not had a hard freeze in our small valley.

  7. catman306 says:

    Endless Summer. Wouldn’t most of those exquisite surfing beaches, visited in the 60s movie be under water by 2050? So I expect that, even thought the waves are high from the endless storms at sea, the surfing will pretty much suck in 2050. Maybe someone who has actually surfed will have an opinion.

  8. Will Koroluk says:

    Off topic, except that energy conservation is on topic in a general since for just about everything on this site. So, here’s a piece from the American Chemical Society about how much food Americans waste, and how much energy they could save simply by eliminating wastage.

    http://bit.ly/azkxqr

  9. Mark S says:

    This is great info. This information is a great counter to the lame ‘it was cold in (pick your city) today’ argument. Does anyone know if someone is compiling this on a global basis?

  10. dbmetzger says:

    Farmers Say Climate Change Already Affecting Crops
    Scientists around the world predict that climate change will have dramatic effects on agriculture in the coming decades. So, too, will pests and pesticides, the loss of species and the need to increase food production for a growing population. http://www.newslook.com/videos/255319-farmers-say-climate-change-already-affecting-crops?autoplay=true

  11. Rabid Doomsayer says:

    If I read the natural cycles right this is the cool period. So what do we get in the warm cycle?

    Global warming is not just a problem for the grand children, it is a problem for us.

  12. adelady says:

    Doomsayer, you read my mind. I truly dread the signs of any uptick in solar irradiation.

    I hope, I believe, that climate models include a “return to normal service” for solar so the projected temperatures are already accounting for this.

    I fear the reality of the impact when that return shows up in my neaighbourhood. Our taste of “hell” (this area is not a candidate for high water just yet) a couple of years ago may be just a foretaste of the next couple of decades.

  13. paulm says:

    Doomsayer, adelady….. yes this is why 2010 is looking like some kind of threshold forming a base line from which we will not be dipping below much from now on. Well as you can see the destruction that we get at this base line is phenomenal on a relative scale.

    1998, 2005 and now 2010 where years which saw global extreme events and devastation. Thats a 5yr frequency pattern forming right there. So it seems like we maybe in for 100yr and 1000yr events on this sort of cycle time now – every 5yrs!

    The problem is the temp will not be falling below this but pushing higher so the extrem events will get more intense, larger in scale and more frequent.

    Hansen has said that 2012 is probably going to be a record warming year beating out 2010 because of the El Nino/La Nina cycle. I can see that this is probably going to be so. So the next few years are probably going to be similar to this years experience moving towards a more destructive cycle before 2015.

    Well I dont believe Global civilisation can survive at the level of extreme events we are we are now seeing. ie the 1998, 2005 & 2010 temps every 5yrs. This intensity and frequency will/is crippling world economies. But now its going to accelerate going forward in both frequency and intensity.

    Ok, throw in peak oil, which means that the cost of energy will not be coming down below where it is now no matter what the economic picture is, and you can see we are scrambling up a sliding, slippery slope.

    I think there is going to be a collapse in societies around the globe before or around 2015 with likely mass chaos.

  14. paulm says:

    and suffering.

  15. paulm says:

    #4 Richard Brenne, I have just polled my kids and my wife – none of their teachers or their schools have mentions or are doing anything for 101010. This is sad.

    I am about to dispatch a number of emails to them to try to stir something up there.

  16. mike roddy says:

    This evidence shows just how powerful media propaganda can be. The average white male from the American Heartland believes that global warming is just a hoax. They will ignore the warming climate even after their sweaty butts become glued to the vinyl seats of their pickups. Why? Rush and Sean have told him so.

  17. William P says:

    Paulm,
    You have it right. Most scientists seem to predict we have decades to go before chaos. But don’t events seem to be accelerating much faster than predicted? Take IPCC predictions for example relative to Arctic sea ice. They were way off on timing of that event.

    My question is: can man survive this? Some say survival will be possible in polar regions. Life on earth was driven there in a previous mass extinction and species did survive. This was way before man.

    The event we are watching unfold – is there informed opinion about this survival issue? James Lovelock (UK – Gaia theory) has written survival will be possible. I don’t know if he’s changed that position. Are there other scientists with opinions on this?

    Hansen, in his last book, says if we proceed with business as usual, run away emissions – natural and man made – will heat Earth to Venus temperatures. There will zero life on earth and even oceans would evaporate. But he is one scientist.

    Anyone have more information on this question? Thanks.

  18. William P says:

    One more cherry note: anyone recall the Mayan calendar stops in 2012?

  19. Yogi -One says:

    I think 2015 is too soon. The breakdown will be longer and slower, not overnight.

    First you will see Bangladesh and Pakistan caving. I predict they will not be able to recover from this year’s disasters before new ones hit within the next five years. This is partly because their infrastructures are so fragile and people are already poor, and partly because their goverments are a combo of helpless to do much and don’t give a rat’s butt about the common people at any rate.

    You will see the elites increasingly become bold about protecting their own assets no matter what the cost to the general populace, as an “every man for himself” panic starts to take hold. But again, this will not be a Holly-wood style overnight scenario, but a gradual degradation of our lifestyles, and of the safeguards that have traditionally kept society together.

    And even as everyone gawks in disbelief at the simmer’s hot disasters, don’t worry, by winter, when we get some huge blizzrds, they’ll all be saying “AGW doesn’t exist because I have four feet of snow outside ny door.”

    The fact that blizzards are produced by AGW just the same as summer hurricanes completely escapes most people, and the elites (= Koch Bros and Big Coal) will spend as much as they have to on media-control to make sure that stays true.

    As always, the media will report on the latest disasters, and they will ALL, and I mean WITHOUT EXCEPTION – observe the taboo that “Thou shalt not mention global warming when describing a climate disaster.” Because, after all, you can’t prove climate catastrophe X was proved by human activity Y.

    And that is enough to ensure that no positive action will be taken by our political, industrial, or financial leaders to help society.

    And for those who are thinking it will matter who is president or which party has the majority in congress, you will learn the agonizing truth that it just doesn’t.

    The outlook for the first half of the 21st century is not good. During this time, it will get worse, culminating in severe breakdowns and stresses on society.

    Hopefully after 2050, people will be focused on rebuilding and will have a better attitude. By then, we will have crossed a threshoild beyond which the pseudo-logic which justifies screwing ourselves to death just can no longer be tolerated.

    But I don’t think before then.

    Humanity has to bottom-out. It really isn’t too different from the process an alcoholic of drug-addict has to go through. Nowadays we still hide behind our bullshit logic about why we don’t need to change.

    That fallacy will hit us with the same ferocity that the alcoholic’s own body turns on him when he can no longer take even one more drink.

    If you think the analogy is not apt, think again.

  20. Esop says:

    Looking forward to seeing the UAH data, as they should read higher than RSS from about September until approx. December. Won’t be surprised if they do not, though…
    Interesting to read the comments about the record temps on the denial/lukewarmer sites.

  21. Richard Brenne says:

    catman306 (#7) – That’s an interesting idea for a long-term documentary. I’ve enjoyed “The Endless Summer” soon after it came out and again a decade ago or so. I forget everywhere they surfed, but I think a lot of the classics in Hawaii, Tahiti and South Africa.

    I’m not much of a surfer myself (negotiating with my wife to get a board almost as we speak) but I’m friends with dozens, including a top oceanographer at NCAR. Also I just asked these kinds of questions of Susan Casey, author of “The Wave” about the world’s biggest waves of all kinds and how global warming is fueling storms that are making wind-driven waves larger.

    Global sea level predictions are now centering around a meter rise by 2100, with the majority of that coming after 2050 as the trend accelerates, and up to two meters by 2100 possible. So the current best guess might be closer to a foot by 2050 (far more dramatic than the 8 inch rise over the last century), with two feet possible.

    The bigger waves are far out in places like Maverick’s off of Half-Moon Bay just south of San Francisco and Jaws off the coast of Maui. Those won’t be affected much, except they’ll grow as you suggest. An epic surfer and almost the American inventor of the sport of ice climbing, Yvon Chouinard (founder and owner of Patagonia who doesn’t believe corporations should exist) said “We’re getting into the surfing market, because it’s never going to snow again, but the waves are going to get bigger and bigger.” (Interestingly I had remembered that quote, Googled it and only found it from a commenter named Toon on – you guessed it – Climate Progress. While not exactly accurate – it will probably be snowing for many centuries, and hopefully longer – it sounds like Chouinard.)

    The problems by 2050 for surfers and other sports enthusiasts might often be more Peak Oil and economic collapse-related, like few can get around to places or afford such luxuries as surfing, skiing and ice climbing relative to now or the past.

    And the bigger waves (already measured as growing from 33 feet maximums to 55 foot maximums and larger on the Oregon Coast just since 1996) will mean a lot of coastal and beach erosion, and then debris with nails floating around near developed areas that the waves have destroyed.

    The experts in The Endless Summer were surfing further out in less-developed (then) areas – experts will see intensifying, not necessarily deteriorating conditions if they can still get to them.

    Here’s the link to Oregon State’s study, with their three most pertinent paragraphs from the study below that:

    http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/archives/2010/jan/maximum-height-extreme-waves-dramatically-pacific-northwest

    “The new assessment concludes that the highest waves may be as much as 46 feet, up from estimates of only 33 feet that were made as recently as 1996, and a 40 percent increase. December and January are the months such waves are most likely to occur, although summer waves are also significantly higher.

    In a study just published online in the journal Coastal Engineering, scientists from Oregon State University and the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries report that the cause of these dramatically higher waves is not completely certain, but “likely due to Earth’s changing climate.”

    Using more sophisticated techniques that account for the “non-stationarity” in the wave height record, researchers say the 100-year wave height could actually exceed 55 feet, with impacts that would dwarf those expected from sea level rise in coming decades. Increased coastal erosion, flooding, damage to ocean or coastal structures and changing shorelines are all possible, scientists say.”

  22. Raindog says:

    Joe, you may have already commented on this but there is an interesting trend in this data that is not discussed in this post. In the months with more record highs, there are also more record lows in an absolute sense. It is true in each of the months here. June had the lowest number of highs and the lowest number of lows. July had slightly more highs and lows. August had yet more highs but also more lows than June and July and the trend held into September. Despite the very high ratio of 5.2:1 there were still more record lows recorded than in any other month.

    It’s a clear trend that may speak to the “climate change” vs “global warming” discussion.

  23. PSU Grad says:

    This is somewhat off-topic, but since it’s the most current post, I felt it might be appropriate. Today’s NY Times headline: MILITARY ORDERS LESS DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS. Full story at http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/science/earth/05fossil.html?_r=1&hp.

    It’s an incredible story. Keep in mind it was the military that began what would become the Internet. The deniers tend to be all gung ho military, especially those who’ve never served. Let’s now see them say the military has it wrong and is looking to make us abandon the “American way of life”.

  24. John McCormick says:

    RE # 19

    Yogi, I agree up to this point:

    “Humanity has to bottom-out. It really isn’t too different from the process an alcoholic of drug-addict has to go through. Nowadays we still hide behind our bullshit logic about why we don’t need to change.

    As humanity is bottoming out, positive feedbacks and economic chaos throughout the industrialized world will make it impossible to change.

    John McCormick

  25. catman306 says:

    Thanks, Richard Brenne. Your essay should be bounced to some surfing sites. The ocean looked much more benign back then. Surf’s up, endlessly.

    I wonder how beautiful these beaches are today. Oil, tar balls, plastic trash, chemical pollution. The Pacific I experienced in the mid 60s, with none of these problems, is gone today and will not be coming back.

    1966 Endless Summer trailer
    http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x32c0k_endless-summer-trailer-1966_shortfilms

  26. Bob Doublin says:

    #16 And don’t forget how UNMANLY it is to ever admit you were wrong.REAL american men NEVER do that.

  27. Todd F says:

    UAH is also the hottest September on record at +0.60C, which broke last year’s record of +0.50C.

    I’m not sure why Roy Spencer likes the 13 month average, but the 13 month average set a new record. The 12 month average could break next month with a reading of +0.49C or higher. If it doesn’t happen next month, it likely won’t happen. The Nina impact seems to be delayed.

    It will be interesting to see the surface temperature data. Usually, there is a shorter lag between Nino/Nina vs global temperature.

  28. Gestur says:

    Raindog:
    Statistically, of course, you can’t make much out of any trend from just that handful of months. Indeed, when I noticed the high absolute number of record highs and lows for September I thought about which months of the year one might expect there to be more than average numbers of records set, and without any real examination of a long monthly time series of these data it occurred to me that it would likely be the months that had the greatest amount of temperature variability naturally. And that, it seems to me, although I’m no meteorologist, suggested the months of seasonal transitions, Sept/Oct in the fall and March/April in the spring. Could be wrong, of course.

  29. paulm says:

    #19Yogi -One,
    Certainly before 2020. You may think that places like Europe and the US will cope, but think again. The price of food is probably going to be the trigger, sparking riots which spread. For instance the US is so dependent on oil relative to other nations, everyone drives from suburbs to work, it means an event which disrupts this will have a immediate severe impact right across the country. This sort of thing could cause chaos and the downfall of infrastructure. Each state for herself!

  30. Jon says:

    “Statistically, of course, you can’t make much out of any trend from just that handful of months.”

    Fortunately, the second chart is based on data going back to the 1950s so we don’t have to try to make all that much out of just the last several months.

  31. MapleLeaf says:

    Hi Todd @27,

    Yes, I saw that. Interesting how Spencer makes no mention of Sept. 2010 being the warmest in the satellite record. Instead he immediately follows up the Sept 2010 update with a post titled “Meanwhile, Sea Surface Temperatures Continue to Fall”. Got to keep people believing that the warming is not an issue.

    Unbelievable….and he also seems frustrated that the global UAH MSU anomalies won’t come down:

    “Despite cooling in the tropics, the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly has stubbornly refused to follow suit: +0.60 deg. C for September, 2010.”

    Umm. Spencer the tropics are cooling largely b/c of the current La Nina, changes in global temperatures typically lag the SOI by about 5-7 months or so.

  32. William P says:

    mike roddy #16 says, “This evidence shows just how powerful media propaganda can be.”

    Right! And propaganda can take a country down. Look at Germany in the 30′s. Much higher education level than the US, yet a guy named Joseph Goebbels (Minister of Propaganda) had that country marching in lock step, following the Great Leader right off a cliff to utter destruction.

    People seem to enjoy being led, especially when Limbaugh, Hannity, Levine can blame everything on one group – liberals. In Germany it was Jews. But it works.

    The powerful right wing media we have in the US (Fox “News”, Limbaugh, etc.) uses hot buttons (Islamic mosques) to enrage the masses, but their real goal is to establish a Republican Congress and President who will enrich corporations through low taxes and elimination of those nasty regulations against such things as CO2 emissions. Regulations eat into profits. That’s why they hate them.

    The concept of global warming is the enemy of profits. That’s why you seldom hear of global warming associated with big natural disasters.

  33. Raindog says:

    Gestur – you made a good point so I went back and checked the data from earlier in the year. They did not match this trend. I should have done that earlier! There were some months with many highs and lows but there was one month with a great many highs and almost no lows and a month with more lows than highs.

    So much for that idea!

    I don’t think it has to do with transition months – perhaps it is very warm ocean temperatures combined with the growing La Nina.

  34. MapleLeaf says:

    From Roy Spencer’s blog:

    “MapleLeaf says:
    October 5, 2010 at 10:11 AM
    Dr. Spencer,

    Maybe I missed it, but I find it troubling that you failed to mention to your readers that September 2010 was the warmest September in the satellite record…..”

    “Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says:
    October 5, 2010 at 11:34 AM

    oops, my bad. John Christy didn’t mention it, and I didn’t think to check it.”

    My response below, made on October 5, 2010 at 12:00 PM, is now in moderation:

    “Uh, huh….big oops.

    And you still have not mentioned it, choosing instead to redirect your readers’ attention to the short-term noise in the system (i.e., cooling of ocean temperatures in the last 7 months or so), instead of long-term, and statistically significant trends in global SSTs for the last 20-years:

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/last:249/plot/hadsst2gl/last:249/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/last:6/trend

    [trend last 20-years: +0.146 C/decade]“

  35. Esop says:

    Comments to the September record over at the main anti science blog (as well as Spencers’ own blog) indicate an increasing desperation in the ranks of useful idiots. Since the predicted La Nina induced drop in temps failed to materialize, they are now changing their tune and start accusing the satellites for having a warm bias/ warm temperatures are expected/ it is all due to the active sun, etc. Some are in complete denial and claim that the temperatures must actually be dropping, due to reduced crops worldwide. One must wonder if most of these comments are made by folks who pose as deniers, thus damaging their case by making them look exceedingly stupid.

  36. Ian George says:

    The last time we had a full 4 years of very low sunspot activity was between 1911 and 1914. Yet 1914 and 1915 were the warmest years for that particular period, with temps cooling down from 1916.
    Now we have 2007-2009 (and probably this year) being amongst the top 20 low sunspot periods.
    Will we see the same thing happen with this year and next year having a temperature spike and then cooling?
    Just a thought.

  37. Frank Lee says:

    These statistics are interesting. Since AGW should, in theory, especially affect nighttime winter low temperatures, I wonder whether those records–record high lows–show a similar trend.

  38. MapleLeaf says:

    Frank @37, that is indeed what is happening. From Skeptical Science:

    “If an increased greenhouse effect was causing warming, we would expect nights to warm faster than days. This is because the greenhouse effect operates day and night. Conversely, if global warming was caused by the sun, we would expect the warming trend to be greatest in daytime temperatures. What we observe is a decrease in cold nights greater than the decrease in cold days, and an increase in warm nights greater than the increase in warm days (Alexander 2006). This is consistent with greenhouse warming.”

    [http://www.skepticalscience.com/human-fingerprint-in-global-warming.html]

    There is a link to the Alexander (2006) paper in the SS post.

  39. Michael says:

    Esop (35):

    Since the predicted La Nina induced drop in temps failed to materialize

    The deniers (and even many who aren’t) keep forgetting about the lag in temperature associated with ENSO.

    I think we will see a drop in the next few months, as happened with the last La Nina; most of the La Nina related drop in 2007-2008 occurred around November-January (GISS, with RSS starting about a month earlier), likely because the lag kicked in at that time. Also, the current La Nina has also developed much faster than in 2007, even setting records for rate of strengthening in the MEI record, so the cooling might be much faster when (if?) it occurs. Not every La Nina/El Nino probably has the same temperature effects though, even when accounting for strength and rate of development.

  40. Michael says:

    Question – I have posted several comments recently but they are held in moderation and never post, even after a day or two; why is this? My last comment, which should be before this one, includes no links or anything that might hold it up and others have posted comments after (on other posts) which were passed through.

  41. Esop says:

    #36 (Ian): the influence of the variations in the solar cycle on the average global temperature is rather small, no matter what Mr. Svensmark and other (likely oil funded) professional disinformers still claim. TSI has decreased slightly over the past 30 years, but global temperatures have increased steadily, so there is a negative correlation. Don’t forget that these folks claimed back in 2008 that we would see rapid cooling for the next 20-30 years, yet here we are, only two years later, smashing all kinds of warm records.
    We are probably going to see a slight drop in temperatures in 2011, as the cooling effect of the current La Nina will drop average temps some. Then, when that effect fades away, we will most likely set a new record again in 2012, due to the combined effect of ever increasing greenhouse gases, increased solar activity and a possible El Nino.
    Prediction: The anti science lobby will make a huge fuzz about temps leveling in 2011, and the media will swallow it, hook, line and sinker.

  42. Ian George says:

    Esop (41)
    The correlation I am trying to make is that in 1911-1914 the temperatures cooled initially then warmed rapidly despite the lack of sunspots. Maybe this is happening again with initial cooling in 2008 and 2010 warming again (probably started mid-2009).
    If this happens again and 2011 is also very warm, then the solar cycle may have an effect but not in the way some claim ie warmer sun=warmer temps.
    Maybe, at the top of the sun cycle, the oceans may warm but the heat does not move to the warmer air. As the air becomes cooler the heat escapes from the ocean (in the form of evaporation) causing more water vapour and increasing temps, especially minimums. I have no idea – just thinking aloud.
    But it is an interesting correlation appearing – almost 100 years apart.