Ordinarily, there would be a vote to send Bolton’s nomination to the floor with a favorable recommendation. Since Sen. Voinovich said he would vote against that, it would fail, 9-9. Sen. Lugar may not even bother.
Lugar will likely have a committee vote to send Bolton’s nomination to the full Senate without recommendation. Voinovich said he would vote for that. Assuming everyone else sticks to party lines, this will pass 10-8.
Bolton’s nomination will then go to the full Senate. Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Voinovich are likely to vote against the nomination. If all Democrats vote against Bolton that means there are 47 votes opposing. Four other Republicans would have to persuaded to vote against Bolton to block his confirmation.
Or, there could be a filibuster.