New Iraqi Poll: Public Mood Plummets

The International Republican Institute recently released a survey of Iraqi public opinion with data taken early this summer. It received virtually no press coverage — according to Lexis, just a single brief mention in the Washington Times — but the results are fascinating and deserve some attention. A few notable points:

Significant drop in country mood. The poll shows an 18 point decline in the attitudes of Iraqis from April to July. This is surely driven by violence and a lack of progress on the political transition, but also by more mundane (yet important) issues like…

Electricity and basic services. See slide 9. A third of the public picks electricity service as one of their top three concerns personally impacting them. This finding is not surprising given the recent street protests (and in some cases violence) against local governments due to the lack of services this summer. One hundred and twenty degree heat without A/C is a serious hardship.

Scant support for the decentralized, federal structure found in the current draft Iraqi constitution. Except for the Kurdish regions, where 87 percent of the public supports giving significant powers to regional governments, there is minimal support for a decentralized structure — the highest level outside of Kurdistan is in southern Shia provinces, where it only approaches 25 percent. This matches results of earlier studies showing a fear in southern and central Iraq that decentralization would lead to a break up of the country, yet a desire among the Kurds to do more. Too bad the current draft of the constitution doesn’t reflect the will of most ordinary Iraqis on this issue – though it does help out the Kurds.

– Brian Katulis