RAND Study: U.S. Doesn’t Have A Good Chance Of Succeeding In Afghanistan

The Washington Post reports that, according to a new RAND National Defense Research Institute study that was commissioned by the U.S. military, “the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan has a chance to succeed, but not a very good one. […] The lack of Afghan government legitimacy and good governance, along with the inability to disrupt Taliban support and supply systems, are the leading indicators of defeat.” According to the Post, RAND used the same method it used in analyzing the outcome of the past 30 counterinsurgency campaigns — including the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the contras in Nicaragua, and government counterinsurgencies in Turkey and Algeria — and “the method picked the actual winner every time.”