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Iran: It’s Back

Good times; the return of the Iran debate. People should listen to Ray Takeyh rather than, say, Joshua Muravchik. Interestingly, Muravchik is willing to follow neoconservatism’s war is always the answer approach to some outside-the-box conclusions:

After the Bolshevik takeover of Russia in 1917, a single member of Britain’s Cabinet, Winston Churchill, appealed for robust military intervention to crush the new regime. His colleagues weighed the costs — the loss of soldiers, international derision, revenge by Lenin — and rejected the idea.

Apparently, this was a bad idea on the part of the British government. And, no doubt, Soviet Communism proved to be a very bad thing indeed. On the other hand, the western powers actually did intervene, sending troops into Russia and giving aid to the White forces in the Russian Civil War. It didn’t work out. To be sure, they could have tried intervening even more forcefully (the neocon method of saving all failed military ventures) but I don’t see any real reason to think this could have worked out. Assemble a huge army (in the immediate aftermath of world war one, mind you) to march on Moscow and then . . . what? Install a puppet regime? And occupy the country — a big country — for how long, exactly? And, needless to say, it’s not as if efforts to conquer Russia have some kind of brilliant historical track record.

Yglesias

One! Last! Push!

I have absolutely no idea what the people advocating for “one last push” in Iraq, with an influence of however many additional troops can be temporarily “surged” into Baghdad are thinking. One last push for what? A higher troop concentration in some particular area might get whatever disfavored elements are around to lie low or head elsewhere for a while, but it’s not as if we’re going to have the mapower to go house-by-house through Iraq and scrub the country of weapons. The various armed factions in Iraq are far too embedded, socially and politically, in the fabric of Iraqi society. This just seems like a desperation pundit play to avoid admitting that the “left” position — we should leave Iraq — is, in fact, the correct one.

McCain: Sending More Troops Would ‘Absolutely…Be Terrible’ For Military, Risks ‘Broken Army’

Today on ABC’s This Week, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) acknowledged that his plan to escalate the Iraq war by sending at least 20,000 more troops would “put a terrible strain on the Army and Marine Corps.” “Absolutely, it would be terrible,” he said, “we’re going to be asking people to go back again and again, maybe even extend their tours.” McCain said he “saw a broken Army in 1973″ and didn’t want to see another. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/mccainbroken.320.240.flv]

As ThinkProgress has noted, McCain’s call for escalation would exacerbate the deteriorating situation in Iraq and would only further damage U.S. national security. Here’s at least two reasons why:

1) No troops to send. “Sending more troops to Iraq would, at the moment, threaten to break our nation’s all-volunteer Army and undermine our national security.” McCain suggests enlarging the force to send them to Iraq, an idea that is implausible to carry out over the short-term and would damage the military’s ability to recruit over the long-term.

2) The insurgency would grow more inflamed. “A more visible presence of U.S. troops risks further stoking the flames of the insurgency by feeding perceptions of long-term U.S. occupation among many Iraqis.” The recent effort to increase troop numbers in Baghdad has only increased violence. A recent poll of Iraqis indicated that support for attacks on US-led forces has grown to a majority position — now six in ten — a number sure to increase if more U.S. troops are put on the ground.

Digg It!

Full transcript: Read more

Kristol: I Fear Political Support For Iraq ‘Will Crumble…Among Republicans’ In Next 3 Months

This morning on Fox New Sunday, Bill Kristol said that that the current Iraq strategy of “Iraqification” is “failing” and has been “discredited.” Noting that CentCom commander Gen. John Abizaid said he finds “despair” about Iraq when he comes to Washington, Kristol said he was “very worried” that if conditions in Iraq did not improve within 2 to 3 months, “political support will crumble not among Democrats, but among Republicans. Gone.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2006/11/kistoliraq.320.240.flv]

Full transcript: Read more

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