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Time Is Up On Rice’s ‘Two To Three Month’ Window For Escalation

On Jan. 11, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Bush administration would not “stay married” to its Baghdad security plan if the Iraqis do “not [live] up to their part of the obligation.” She said that “the most important thing that the Iraqi government has to do right now is to reestablish the confidence of its population that it’s going to be even-handed in defending it,” otherwise “this plan is not going to work.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/05/foreign011107.320.240.flv]

Those two to three months are up, and recent troubling reports indicate that Maliki’s office has not been “even-handed” in defending the Iraqi population and has actually increased sectarian tensions:

– “A department of the Iraqi prime minister’s office is playing a leading role in the arrest and removal of senior Iraqi army and national police officers, some of whom had apparently worked too aggressively to combat violent Shiite militias.”

– According to a recent poll, Maliki inspires confidence in 72 percent of Shiites, but just eight percent of Sunnis.

– “The UN has sharply criticised the Iraqi government’s human rights record, in the two months since a security plan was launched in the capital, Baghdad. The UN mission for Iraq said Iraqi authorities had failed to guarantee the basic rights of about 3,000 people they had detained in the operations.”

– In its April 26 Iraq Index, the Brookings Institution found “no progress thus far” on four of Rice’s benchmarks: establishing new election laws, scheduling provincial elections, disbanding militias, or putting together a plan for national reconciliation.

Even though the Iraqi government has been largely unsuccessful in meeting its political benchmarks, the Bush administration refuses to change its plan in Iraq. Yesterday on CBS’s Face the Nation, Rice said that the administration opposes imposing any “so-called consequences” on Maliki’s government “for missing the benchmarks,” and plans to veto any bill that does so.

UPDATE: Video of the hearing has been added.

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Risk and Reward

Rich Lowry quotes some of George Tenet’s book and argues that the Iraq debate “was always fundamentally about how much risk we were willing to tolerate in a post-9/11 environment.” Or, as Tenet says, Iraq “was never a question of a known, imminent threat; it was about an unwillingness to risk surprise.” Two points in response. One is that while this was, indeed, one of the debates taking place within elite circles that has almost no resemblance to the public debate playing out in the media which was a demagogic scare campaign designed to convince people that the country faced an imminent threat from Iraq.

The other is that it’s staggering how wrongheaded that Tenet/Lowry framing of the issue was. The underlying presumption was that achieving the goals of the campaign — replacing Saddam’s regime with a stable one congenial to American interests — would be basically unproblematic. Perhaps somewhat costly in terms of money or achieving secondary diplomatic objectives, but basically something we could achieve if we just decided to. To not invade was to tolerate a certain level of risk, whereas to invade was to proclaim the risk intolerable. Off the Lowry/Tenet tables was the basic reality that the downside risks involved in engaging in preventive war are actually enormous.

Murtha Floats Impeachment As ‘One Way To Influence The President’

This morning on CBS’s Face the Nation, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) expressed frustration with the White House’s public rhetoric about wanting to reach a compromise over Iraq funding. “They say we’re willing to compromise,” he said. “And then we don’t get any compromise.”

“We’ve already compromised,” Murtha said. “And we need to make this president understand, Mr. President, the public has spoken. There’s three ways or four ways to influence a president. One is popular opinion, the election, third is impeachment and fourth is the purse.” Host Bob Schieffer followed up, pressing him on whether impeachment was a serious option on the table. Murtha responded, “I’m just saying that’s one way to influence a president.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/murthaimpeach.320.240.flv]

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Rice: ‘I Don’t Know What We Were Supposed To Preemptively Strike In Afghanistan’ In July 2001

This evening, 60 Minutes will air its discussion with former CIA Director George Tenet. In one exchange, Tenet elaborates on a briefing that he and his former aide Cofer Black delivered to then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice in July 2001 warning of an “urgent threat” from al Qaeda. In the 60 Minutes interview, Tenet says this is the message he delivered to Rice two months prior to 9/11:

We need to consider immediate action inside Afghanistan now. We need to move to the offensive.

On CBS’s Face the Nation, a perplexed and stunned Rice said, “The idea of launching preemptive strikes into Afghanistan in July of 2001, this is a new fact.” Rice then said, “I don’t know what we were supposed to preemptively strike in Afghanistan. Perhaps somebody can ask that.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/riceaskthat.320.240.flv]

Note to Rice: The intelligence community was trying to tell you to take the action President Clinton took — that is, make an effort to kill this guy:

ubl4.jpg

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Counterinsurgency Fun

Bad news for folks who thought the appointment of David Petraeus to command in Iraq was going to single-handedly undo centuries worth of the American way of war — we’re back to launching artillery barrages against neighborhoods in southern Iraq. Read the new Counterinsurgency Field Manual (PDF) that Petraeus wrote if you want to know why that’s a bad idea. Or read Jeffrey Record on how it is the US never seems to get this right no matter how many times we resolve to do things differently.

Yglesias

Why Don’t You Guys Ever Report the Good News?

Possibly because the “good things” happening in Iraq turn out to be sandcastles: “inspectors for a federal oversight agency have found that in a sampling of eight projects that the United States had declared successes, seven were no longer operating as designed because of plumbing and electrical failures, lack of proper maintenance, apparent looting and expensive equipment that lay idle.”

Yglesias

Retaliation

Robert Wright is making sense:

We reacted to 9/11 by freaking out and invading one too many countries, creating more terrorists. With the ranks of terrorists growing — amid evolving biotechnology and loose nukes — we could within a decade see terrorism on a scale that would make us forget any restraint we had learned from the Iraq war’s outcome. If 3,000 deaths led to two wars, how many wars would 300,000 deaths yield? And how many new terrorists?

Or, by contrast, and Hillary Clinton and John Edwards:

Obama said he first would assure there was an effective emergency response and not a repeat of what happened in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

He then turned his attention to the issue of intelligence. “The second thing is to make sure that we’ve got good intelligence, A) to find out that we don’t have other threats and attacks potentially out there, and, B) to find out, do we have any intelligence on who might have carried it out so that we can take potentially some action to dismantle that network.”

He went on to say that what the United States must avoid at such a moment is alienating the world community “based on faulty intelligence, based on bluster and bombast,” adding that “we’re not going to defeat terrorists on our own.”

His answer appeared shaped by the reaction, at home and abroad, to President Bush’s invasion of Iraq, and he was suggesting clearly that he would not follow that model in confronting a terrorist attack.

But in rapid succession, former senator John Edwards (N.C.) and Clinton offered rather different responses, sounding a far more aggressive tone in their determination to retaliate and unequivocal in their willingness to use force.

I sometimes face some skepticism from people about whether the foreign policy differences between the Democrats really matter. After all, people say, in the wake of Iraq nobody’s likely to just start up a new war for no reason at all. This is probably true. But the essence of national security policy is that the environment is always changing in unpredictable ways. It’s very doubtful that the Bush administration ever would have invaded Iraq had 9/11 not created the political moment in which it could be done. It’s very important that, if the country suffers a terrorist attack under the next administration, that the country be run by a group of people who’ll respond intelligently rather than by a group of people who’ll think Priority Number One should be lashing out to demonstrate “toughness.” Edwards, I think, mitigated his sins on this question by acting very well on the “war on terror” show of hands. Nobody in this race has really won me over on security questions, but Clinton has consistently managed to accomplish whatever the reverse of that is.

Bush Officials Say Escalation Will Last Into 2008

The New York Times reports this morning, to no one’s great surprise, that the Bush administration foresees its “surge” lasting until “well into” 2008.

The Bush administration will not try to assess whether the troop increase in Iraq is producing signs of political progress or greater security until September, and many of Mr. Bush’s top advisers now anticipate that any gains by then will be limited, according to senior administration officials.

In interviews over the past week, the officials made clear that the White House is gradually scaling back its expectations for the government of President Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. The timelines they are now discussing suggest that the White House may maintain the increased numbers of American troops in Iraq well into next year.

In early March, the Times reported that Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the day-to-day commander of American forces in Iraq, had recommended in a private memo that Bush’s increased troop levels “be maintained through February 2008.” Odierno also said in January that “even with the additional American troops,” it might take another ‘two or three years‘ for American and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand in the war.”

Odierno is notable since he was mentioned in the Washington Post’s report on Friday about the growing “split inside the military between younger, mid-career officers and the top brass.” The Post reported that “many majors and lieutenant colonels have privately expressed anger and frustration” with the performance of several generals, “calling them slow to grasp the realities of the war and overly optimistic in their assessments.” Odierno was one of three generals cited by name.

UPDATE: David Kurtz adds:

[This] is a milestone in the Bush Administration’s public spin of the war, marking the first official acknowledgment that the surge and all the attendant fuss were nothing more than an elaborate stop-gap intended to buy time so that the colossal failure of the President’s foreign policy can be pawned off on the next president.

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Friends’ List

Huh. Looks like there was more than one “did they really ask that question?” moment in the Democratic debate. Ed Kilgore reports:

Obama had some of the most interesting moments. He initially flubbed a “gotcha” question about America’s “three top allies,” and didn’t mention Israel, but nicely handled the follow-up. He was more specific about health care than in past debates. And he did a solid job of answering questions about his position on Iraq.

Oh, my! A top three allies question. The UK and Canada are, I think, our numbers one and two allies. Apparently, the “right” answer is that Israel belongs in the top three as well. Seeing as how US troops have never fought alongside the IDF and we don’t have a formal treaty commitment to the defense of Israel (we surely would have one were Israel to have defined borders, but it doesn’t, so we don’t) this strikes me as a difficult case to make. Australia is probably most aligned with us in foreign policy terms. But I think you’d have to say that the US-Japanese alliance has a hard-to-beat combination of closeness and strategic significance. The fact that NATO involves so many players, however, makes this a bit hard to answer, since that makes a whole big raft of countries very significant allies of ours.

Yglesias

What Was The Question?

Looking for debate info, I found this:

Asked what she would do if two American cities were simultaneously attacked, Clinton let ‘er rip. “Having been a senator during 9/11, I understand the extraordinary horror of that kind of attack,” she said. “I think a president must move as swiftly as is prudent to retaliate. That doesn’t mean we go looking for other fights. Let’s focus on those who have attacked us and do everything we can to destroy them.”

It was at least the second time in the debate that Clinton referenced her experience as a Senator during and after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks — an effort to show she has been in the trenches fighting terrorism and its aftermath for years.

Edwards, who was asked that same question, emphasized the importance of diplomacy — changing the way that the world looks at America. “We have more tools available to us than bombs,” Edwards said.

Richardson went a step further, advocating an immediate military retaliation.

Can someone give me a better account of what the question was? I mean, military retaliation against whom? I mean, there was no military retaliation after the terrorist attacks in Madrid and London for the very good reason that there was nowhere to retaliate. Having deposed the Taliban from ruling Afghanistan, we can’t respond to a new al-Qaeda attack — even a big one — by deposing the Taliban again. So what are we talking about here? Presumably not just lashing out at random.

CAUGHT ON TAPE: McCain Supported ‘Precipitous Withdrawal’ From Somalia, Haiti

This morning, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), gave several television interviews in which he vigorously advocated staying the course in Iraq. He told the CBS Early Show, “[T]here is progress being made…we’ve got to at least give this new strategy a chance to succeed.”

McCain further claimed, “I don’t recall a time in history while men and women are fighting and sacrificing that one of our major leaders has said that the conflict is lost.” On two separate occasions during the Clinton administration, however, he argued for the approval of legislation guaranteeing the removal of U.S. forces from foreign engagements, regardless of the consequences:

October 1994 — McCain argued for the precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Haiti: “In my view that does not mean as soon as order is restored to Haiti. It does not mean as soon as democracy is flourishing in Haiti. It does not mean as soon as we have established a viable nation in Haiti. As soon as possible means as soon we can get out of Haiti without losing any American lives.” [Senate Floor, 10/6/94]

October 1993 — McCain argued against giving any strategy the chance to succeed in Somalia: “Mr. President, can anyone seriously argue that another 6 months of United States forces in harm’s way means the difference between peace and prosperity in Somalia and war and starvation there? Is that very dim prospect worth one more American life? No, it is not.” [Senate Floor, 10/14/93]

Watch his statements:

McCain has conveniently forgotten his previous statements. He now calls the position he took in ’93 and ’94 “precipitous withdrawal” and “surrender.”

Ryan Powers

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Murtha Slams McCain Over ‘Outrageous’ IED Joke

In a fiery speech last night, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) blasted Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for joking about improvised explosive devices (IED) during his appearance on the Daily Show on Tuesday.

McCain was asked by Jon Stewart about his notorious recent shopping trip at a Baghdad market, and responded, “I had something picked out for you, too — a little IED to put on your desk.”

During his floor speech last night, Murtha said that he received a call from a friend’s wife who was distressed about McCain’s crack. “In the last four months, we’ve lost more troops than any other period during this war,” Murtha said. “Imagine a presidential candidate making a joke about IEDs when our kids are getting blown up!” he shouted loudly. “It’s outrageous!”

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/murthmcc424.320.240.flv]

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More Big Army

The more I think about this idea, the less I like it. I could imagine forms in which I’d support something along these lines, but the budgetary costs involved are staggering and the strategic rationale is thin. The political rationale, by contrast, is clear but also kind of tawdry and misguided. I don’t think you’re ever going to convince voters that the Democrats are the authentic party of militaristic nationalism.

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Obama and the 100,000

I see a fair number of people, including Brian Beutler, disquieted by Barack Obama’s call for the addition of 92,000 ground soldiers to the American military. It’s important to note that this has become pretty much a standard Democratic policy proposal and I’m not sure it differentiates Obama from anyone of the main legislative leaders or other presidential candidates. As to the merits of the plan, well, it depends. 100,000 more soldiers instead of . . . what? If at the margin we’re trading away F-22s, Osprey helicopters, DD(X) destroyers, etc. in exchange for additional troops, that’s a perfectly good idea. It would be a great idea to do what Obama proposes in regard to reducing our nuclear spending and use that money to finance additional boots on the ground. By contrast, however, further restraint in domestic discretionary spending in order to finance further increases in defense spending is a bad idea.

At the end of the day, the Pentagon doesn’t really “need” more troops. The US military, however, has the luxury of operating well beyond the margins of strict necessity. More troops would be useful. They could guard refugee camps in Chad, keep girls’ schools open in rural Afghanistan, let National Guard soldiers stay home with their families ready to respond to natural disasters, help monitor cease-fire lines in Congo, etc., etc., etc. If you’re worried that more troops would be used for occupation duty in Teheran I think that’s a smart worry, but the solution is to elect a president who won’t invade Iran. As we’ve seen in Iraq, an absence of logistical capabilities won’t stop a bad president from launching an unwise invasion.

The problem with the proposal is that “useful” is a low bar to pass. We have way more conventional military firepower than we need and way, way, way more nukes than we need. Restraining that stuff to free up money for more soldiers is change int he right direction. But we have less health care, less education, less child care, less basic infrastructure, etc., etc., etc. than we need. Cutting back there to further incease the capabilities of what’s already the most capable military on the planet by a long margin doesn’t make sense.

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Bush: If You Judge My Iraq Strategy By The Number Of Violent Attacks, The Terrorists Win

In an interview last night on PBS, President Bush complained that people who measure progress in Iraq by how many car bombs and suicide attacks occur are giving a “huge victory” to the enemy by making it more difficult for him to promote the war to the American public.

“If the standard of success is no car bombings or suicide bombings,” Bush said, “we have just handed those who commit suicide bombings a huge victory.” He repeated later that people who “judge the administration’s [escalation] plan” based on such acts of violence “have just given Al Qaida or any other extremist a significant victories [sic].”

Bush said that these images of brutal violence on television are “one of the problems I face in trying to convince the American people” that the war is worthwhile. Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/iraqrose422.320.240.flv]

Another reason President Bush doesn’t want to talk about suicide bombings: they’ve increased 30 percent over the past six weeks despite the escalation, according to U.S. military data.

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Reasons

A good observation from Ezra Klein on Barack Obama’s foreign policy address. Obama says of Iraq:

In 2002, I stated my opposition to the war in Iraq, not only because it was an unnecessary diversion from the struggle against the terrorists who attacked us on September 11th, but also because it was based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the threats that 9/11 brought to light. I believed then, and believe now, that it was based on old ideologies and outdated strategies – a determination to fight a 21st century struggle with a 20th century mindset.

As Ezra remarks, “What’s telling, however, is what’s absent. Obama doesn’t say he opposed the war because of a nagging skepticism towards Hussein’s WMD capabilities, nor because this administration wasn’t competent enough to pull such a conflict off. Rather, he opposed it because it was the wrong war, focused on the wrong threats, and stemming from the wrong ideology.” Contrast this with, say, John Edwards in his famous “I was wrong” op-ed:

Almost three years ago we went into Iraq to remove what we were told — and what many of us believed and argued — was a threat to America. But in fact we now know that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction when our forces invaded Iraq in 2003. The intelligence was deeply flawed and, in some cases, manipulated to fit a political agenda.

Obama didn’t go on to draw any broader programmatic distinctions between himself and other Democrats, preferring to stay within the formal “positive vision” framework, but it’ll be interesting to seee as we get some Democratic debates whether any larger doctrinal differences emerge, or if this is just a question of emphasizing different aspects of the same negative view of the Iraq War.

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‘Attack Dog’ Cheney Unleashes Litany Of Misleading Claims About Reid

Vice President Cheney and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) exchanged words today in back-to-back news conferences. Cheney accused Reid of “defeatism” and called Reid’s speech yesterday “uninformed and misleading.”

Reid assailed President Bush for again sending out his “attack dog, also known as Dick Cheney.”

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/reidcheney07.320.240.flv]

Below, a rebuttal of Cheney’s main attacks:

CHENEY: “Yesterday, Senator Reid said the troop surge was against the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. That is plainly false. The Iraq Study Group report was explicitly favorable toward a troop surge to secure Baghdad.”

FACT: Iraq Study Group says escalation will “not solve the fundamental cause of violence in Iraq.” The Iraq Study Group said that a “short-term redeployment” of troops into Baghdad could be part of a larger military, economic, and diplomatic plan to wind down the war. But the Bush escalation policy is not short-term. The ISG also states, “Sustained increases in U.S. troop levels would not solve the fundamental cause of violence in Iraq… As another American general told us, if the Iraqi government does not make political progress, ‘all the troops in the world will not provide security.’”

CHENEY: “Senator Reid said there should be a regional conference on Iraq. Apparently he doesn’t know that there is going to be one next week.”

FACT: Regional conferences mean little without diplomacy. Reid criticized Bush yesterday for failing to “launch any meaningful diplomatic efforts.” The fact that there is a regional conference means little if the U.S. chooses not to engage Iraq’s neighbors. An account from last month’s regional conference: “So they went, shook hands and chatted briefly. And that was the sum of the direct interaction between American and Iranian delegates at a long-awaited, day-long regional summit on Iraq today in Baghdad. … U.S. and Iranian officials said there were no private conversations of any substance.”

CHENEY: “Senator Reid said he doesn’t have real substantive meetings with the president. Yet immediately following last week’s meeting at the White House, he said, ‘It was a good exchange. Everyone voiced their considered opinion about the war in Iraq.’”

FACT: These two statements don’t contradict. In both, Reid simply says that Bush gave his opinion on Iraq. One is more diplomatic than the other, but they don’t contradict.

CHENEY: “What’s most troubling about Senator Reid’s comments yesterday is his defeatism. Indeed, last week he said the war is already lost. And the timetable legislation that he is now pursuing would guarantee defeat.”

FACT: Americans think Cheney is wrong. From a 4/19 Fox News poll: “[D]o you think it is accurate to compare withdrawal with surrender?” Yes: 33 percent | No: 61 percent

CNN’s Dana Bash reported that Cheney’s Capitol Hill press conference was “virtually unprecedented,” but that war critics “aren’t worried about it.” As one said in an email, “I wish Dick Cheney would come out every single day.”

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Kyl ‘Walks Off The Battlefield’ Of Intellectual Honesty

Last night, congressional Democrats settled on an agreement “to ignore President Bush’s veto threat and send him a $124 billion war spending bill that orders the administration to begin pulling troops out of Iraq,” with a final withdrawal goal of October 1, 2007.

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) attacked the plan this morning on CNN, claiming it was “the first time I know of — in the middle of a war — that a country just announces that on a specific date it’s walking off the battlefield.” He added, “[I]t’s almost as if Americans want to say that we’re failing before our troops have a chance to get the job done.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/04/kylcnniraq.320.240.flv]

Kyl doesn’t mention that on two separate occasions during the Clinton administration, he voted explicitly in favor of setting “a specific date” for American troops to “walk off the battlefield”:

– In June 1998, Kyl voted in favor of amending the National Defense Authorization Act for FY1999 to “require the President to submit Congress a plan for withdrawing United States forces from Bosnia and Herzegovina if the Congress does not so act by March 31, 1999.”

– In May 2000, Kyl voted against removing a provision from Military Construction Appropriations Act of 2001 that struck provisions requiring that President Bill Clinton withdraw all U.S. ground forces from Kosovo by July 1, 2001.

Since then, Kyl has become a critic of timelines and has voted again and again to give Bush a blank check in Iraq.

Ryan Powers

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Rep. Hobson: None Of My Republican Colleagues Criticized Me For Going To Syria

hobsonpelosi4.gif When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) led a bipartisan delegation to Syria earlier this month, several Republican lawmakers criticized her for undermining the President:

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH): “She’s going for one reason and that is to embarrass the president.”

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA): “The Speaker and many of her Democratic allies have become so drunk with grandiose visions of deposing Bush that they break bread with terrorists and enemies of the United States.”

Republican Rep. David Hobson (OH) was also on that trip. But in an interview published in the Washington Post today, he states that he never received any of the attacks that were thrown at Pelosi:

“Before we left, we met with the State Department people and nobody told us not to go,” Hobson said, adding that none of his Republican colleagues broached the subject, either. “Nobody ever called me to say, ‘Why are you going to Syria with those people?’

Despite his attacks on Pelosi, Boehner has repeatedly refused to criticize Hobson for going to Syria. His spokesman recently confirmed that “there’s no tension or hard feelings there whatsoever” between Boehner and Hobson over the trip. Similarly, the lawmakers who criticized Pelosi were silent on similar congressional trips led by fellow Republicans.

Hobson has also defended Pelosi against his colleagues’ attacks, noting that she “did not engage in any bashing of Bush in any meeting I was in and she did not in any meeting I was in bash the policies as it relates to Syria.” He recently sent a box of chocolates to Pelosi to thank her for including him in the trip and said, “If asked, I would go again. I thought it was a good trip.”

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Yglesias

Obama’s Foreign Policy Speech

Full text here.

The “vision thing” is what Obama’s good at, and I think it’s on display here. An appealing vision of American leadership embedded in an interconnected, fundamentally cooperative world. I think he does a good job of putting the terrorism issue in the appropriate context, as a serious problem on a par with several other serious problems rather than the organizing principle of everything we do in the world. He’s also very strong on nuclear non-proliferation, which happens to be the most important issue. The section on when to use force is fuzzy, and manages to not distinguish Obama’s view from things Edwards or Clinton could also espouse. There are a couple of head-nods in the direction of indicating that Obama understands the central role the Israeli-Palestinian conflict plays in the mess that is the broader Middle East, which is great if I’m reading the head-nods correctly.

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