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Back in the U.S.S.R.

Oy. It seems that Bernard Lewis has decided the United States could learn a thing or two about the need for brutal measures against Muslims from the example of the Soviet Union:

During the Cold War, two things came to be known and generally recognized in the Middle East concerning the two rival superpowers. If you did anything to annoy the Russians, punishment would be swift and dire.

Americans, by contrast, were undermined by softie liberals, journalists, etc., etc., etc. Appeasement, blah blah. Lewis’ argument, not surprisingly, has some problems in terms of accurately describing Soviet posture in the Middle East. The other thing, though, is Russia has been deploying brutal measures against subjugated Muslim populations for at least two hundred years. The Czars fought Muslim guerillas in the Caucasus, the Soviets fought Muslim guerillas in the Caucasus, and Vladimir Putin has done the same thing. Relations between Russians and the Muslims who live to the south of the Russians is a big, long, giant example of Lewis-favored conservative policy prescriptions not working — the fighting just keeps going on and on and on and on.

White Houses Uses Gen. Petraeus As PR Flack To Promote War Czar

Ever since President Bush announced his escalation policy, war supporters have relied on the credibility of Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, to deflect criticism. Earlier this month, President Bush mentioned Petraeus by name no less than 12 times in a speech arguing for his strategy in Iraq, at one point saying, “the best messenger, by the way, for us is David Petraeus.”

But the manner in which the administration has rolled out Petraeus to help sell its war policy at home is threatening that credibility. In a fact sheet released to reporters yesterday about Bush’s new war czar, both Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are quoted in a manner more suited for use on a book jacket:

Gen. David Petraeus: “Doug Lute knows Iraq, the region, and Washington, and he’ll be a great addition to the team that is striving to achieve success in Iraq. He is also a doer.” (General David Petraeus, 5/15/07)

Amb. Ryan Crocker: “I look forward to working closely with LTG Doug Lute in the coming months. His knowledge and experience will make him a valuable partner to our efforts in Iraq.” (Iraq Ambassador Ryan Crocker, 5/15/07)

Yesterday, ABC’s Martha Raddatz asked White House spokesman Tony Snow if his press office had solicited quotes from a uniformed military officer, and if so, whether that was appropriate. Snow dodged both questions, instead offering a sarcastic remark. “[I]t’s clearly a burning issue so we’ll look into it for you.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/05/petraeussnow517.320.240.flv]

The Lute press release is another example of Rep. John Murtha’s contention that the White House has been using Gen. Petraeus as a political prop.

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Transcript: Read more

Bush Threatens Veto Over Troop Pay Raise, Military Widow Benefits

bushtroopsh.jpg The Bush administration today threatened to a veto a House defense spending bill over a 3.5 percent pay raise for U.S. soldiers and a $40/month increase in benefits for military widows, among other provisions. The legislation passed the House today 397-27.

ThinkProgress noted last night that the White House opposed the pay raise for troops:

Troops don’t need bigger pay raises, White House budget officials said Wednesday in a statement of administration policy laying out objections to the House version of the 2008 defense authorization bill. [...]

The slightly bigger military raises are intended to reduce the gap between military and civilian pay that stands at about 3.9 percent today. Under the bill, HR 1585, the pay gap would be reduced to 1.4 percent after the Jan. 1, 2012, pay increase.

Bush budget officials said the administration “strongly opposes” both the 3.5 percent raise for 2008 and the follow-on increases, calling extra pay increases “unnecessary.”

The White House says it also opposes:

a $40/month allowance for military survivors, saying the current benefits are “sufficient”

additional benefits for surviving family members of civilian employees

price controls for prescription drugs under TRICARE, the military’s health care plan for military personnel and their dependents

House Minority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) said today he was “shocked and disappointed in the President’s threat,” noting that Bush’s problems with the bill are over measures that benefit “the very people who sacrifice the most in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and who serve at home and overseas.”

UPDATE: VoteVets chairman and Iraq veteran Jon Soltz adds:

Believe me, even with the current benefits that get paid out by the Department of Defense and insurance that many troops buy into, those who lose spouses in Iraq aren’t sleeping in mounds of cash. The increase proposed by Democrats will mean a hell of a lot. At VoteVets.org, we’ve heard absolute horror stories on the type of cutbacks that widows and widowers have had to make because the government doesn’t provide enough to those who lose a loved one in war.

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Yglesias

The Energy Security Myth

Rounding out my day of energy policy, I also went to a small lunch event at Cato where Eugene Gholz talked about his paper (with Daryl Press) on “Energy Alarmism: The Myths That Make Americans Worry about Oil”

Many Americans have lost confidence in their country’s “energy security” over the past several years. Because the United States is a net oil importer, and a substantial one at that, concerns about energy security naturally raise foreign policy questions. Some foreign policy analysts fear that dwindling global oil reserves are increasingly concentrated in politically unstable regions, and they call for increased U.S. efforts to stabilize—or, alternatively, democratize—the politically tumultuous oil-producing regions. Others allege that China is pursuing a strategy to “lock up” the world’s remaining oil supplies through long-term purchase agreements and aggressive diplomacy, so they counsel that the United States outmaneuver Beijing in the “geopolitics of oil.” Finally, many analysts suggest that even the “normal” political disruptions that occasionally occur in oil-producing regions (e.g., occasional wars and revolutions) hurt Americans by disrupting supply and creating price spikes. U.S. military forces, those analysts claim, are needed to enhance peace and stability in crucial oil-producing regions, particularly the Persian Gulf. . . .

Our overarching message is simply that market forces, modified by the cartel behavior of OPEC, determine most of the key factors that affect oil supply and prices. The United States does not need to be militarily active or confrontational to allow the oil market to function, to allow oil to get to consumers, or to ensure access in coming decades.

I find this thesis convincing, but I don’t think it really gets to the heart of the matter, which doesn’t have to do with the “stability” of the Persian Gulf as much as it does with the fear that the Gulf’s oil reserves might be politically unified. The US didn’t want Iran to conquer Iraq, the US didn’t want Iraq to conquer Kuwait, and now the US is concerned about a “Shiite crescent.” When I brought this up Gholz indicated that this fear is basically unrealistic. That, in turn, I agree with. Still, the upshot is that the real debate in this regard turns on an empirical point about the actual present-day configuration of the Persian Gulf region rather than a theoretical claim about energy security.

UPDATE: “Basically unrealistic,” I should say, at the moment. Obviously, Saddam Hussein did in fact conquer Kuwait in the not-too-distant past and could quite plausibly have overrun Saudi Arabia had the Saudis not gotten foreign military backing.

Yglesias

The Anti-War GOP

Via Rod Dreher, this 1956 Eisenhower campaign ad aimed at positioning Ike’s credentials as the candidate of peace, the guy who ended the Korean War and who won’t get the country into a new one:

It’s an interesting counterpoint to the widespread idea that the more hawkish candidate always wins or that the United States is just an inherently militaristic country. On pretty much any metric you can imagine, the country is more culturally liberal than it was in 1956, and the objective threat level today is way lower than it was 50 years ago. For whatever reason, though, political debate is stuck in a really cramped kind of nationalism.

Petraeus: September Report On Escalation Will Not Say ˜Anything Definitive

petraeus.jpgOffering another sign that the administration plans to continue its escalation of the war in Iraq into 2008, U.S. commander Gen. David Petraeus now says that he will not have “anything definitive” to say about the war in his September review.

On April 26, Petraeus told reporters that “in early September” he “would provide an assessment of the situation in Iraq with respect to our mission and offer recommendations on the way ahead.” But in an interview with CNN reporter Jane Arraf for IraqSlogger, Petraeus says, “Come September, I don’t think we’ll have anything definitive in September (although) certainly we’ll have some indicators on the political side in Iraq.”

Other recent signs that Bush is planning a long-term escalation:

– Last week, the Pentagon “notified more than 35,000 soldiers and Marines to be prepared to deploy to Iraq beginning this fall, a move that would allow commanders to maintain the ongoing buildup of troops through the end of the year if needed.” [Link]

– The New York Times reported in late April, “The timelines [that Bush officials] are now discussing suggest that the White House may maintain the increased numbers of American troops in Iraq well into next year.” [Link]

– In early March, the Times reported that Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the day-to-day commander of American forces in Iraq, had recommended in a private memo that Bush’s increased troop levels “be maintained through February 2008.” Odierno also said in January that “even with the additional American troops,” it might take another ‘two or three years’ for American and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand in the war.” [Link; Link]

In recent weeks, senior conservatives have said that President Bush had until September “to prove that the Iraq war effort has turned a corner.” Petraeus’ announcement throws a major wrench in that plan.

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