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Kabuki: In a Good Way

Mike Crowley derides the recent “are we safer?” contretemps as just so much kabuki:

I think nearly everyone would agree that we’re safer in some ways (we’re watching more closely) and less safe in others (people hate us even more), and that determing which way the scale tips is nearly impossible. What’s happening here seems more about center v. left, hawk v. dove politics. (That’s especially true when you consider that Edwards was saying the opposite thing back in 2004.)

To me, though, this is valuable kabuki. Bracketing for a moment the issue of Edwards reinvention of himself since 2004, we’re seeing one of several indications that Clinton’s aspiration on the politics of national security is to slice the salami as thinly as possible, whereas Obama and Edwards are both more eager for a direct assault. The implication of Clinton’s line is that whatever sort of mistake Iraq may have been, it obviously wasn’t that big a mistake, since it’s aggregate impact has been made up for by improved domestic security.

To me, the broader critique is much more politically promising (albeit somewhat riskier). It’s going to be difficult to hang narrow, implementation oriented critiques of Iraq on the leading GOP contenders. If you want to leverage the war’s unpopularity against Romney, McCain, or Giuliani you really need to level that attack at the level of concepts in which the war is a big, honking strategic error. Politics aside, this is also consistent with Crowley’s own observation that Clinton probably doesn’t want to apologize for Iraq because she’s not sorry; she’s sorry it’s turned out so poorly, but she thinks that’s personally the fault of George W. Bush and his key aides (Cheney, Rumsfeld, Feith, Wolfowitz, Bremer, etc.) rather than the result of a major strategic error that she and I and John Edwards and many others also made.

Yglesias

Romney’s Defense

Mitt Romney’s staff attempts to defend the governor’s repeated claim that there were no inspectors in Iraq. Ezra Klein’s unconvinced: “Because Saddam did not welcome them with joy in his heart and transparency on his lips, they weren’t actually there. We then got into an argument over whether we should trust Dick Cheney’s judgment on the access offered to the IAEA inspectors or the IAEA inspectors’ judgment on their own access. All in all, a fruitful exchange.”

New Joint Chiefs Nominee: ‘This War Is Going To Go On For A Long Time. It’s A Generational War’

mullen.jpgDefense Secretary Robert Gates announced today that Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Peter Pace, the highest-ranking U.S. military official, is being replaced by Navy Adm. Mike Mullen.

Pace is the first Joint Chiefs Chairman not to be renominated for a second term since the military was centralized under the joint chiefs position 21 years ago. The selection of Mullen also marks the first time in 21 years that both the head of the Joint Chiefs and the CentCom Commander, Adm. William Fallon, have been Navy officers.

Some insight on Mullen can be gained from a speech he gave to sailors in Pearl Harbor in Feb. 2007:

In his opening remarks, Mullen, a Vietnam War veteran, told Pearl Harbor sailors: “I honestly believe this is the most dangerous time in my life.

“The enemy now is basically evil and fundamentally hates everything we are — the democratic principles for which we stand … This war is going to go on for a long time. It’s a generational war.”

From a Feb. 2006 interview with Mullen:

You use the term ‘Long War’, and it’s important to understand that and really grab this issue because it is going to be around for a significant amount of time. I call it generational. That said, there are still traditional capabilities that are very much required.

When Fallon was appointed in January to lead CentCom, analysts noted the choice of a Navy officer reflected “a greater emphasis on countering Iranian power, a mission that relies heavily on naval forces and combat airpower to project American influence in the Persian Gulf.” In announcing the nomination of Mullen this afternoon, CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr said that Mullen “watches Iran closely.”

Digg It!

UPDATE: Mullen has indicated he is against a permanent presence in Iraq. “I’ve tried to couch the future discussion, and I’ve looked at it over many months now, is what are we going to do after Iraq? What are we going to do after Afghanistan? And I truly believe we will bring those forces home. I’m not standing here today to predict exactly when that will occur.”

UPDATE II: Cernig has much more:

It seems plain to me that Mullen is being brought forward, in part, to clean house for Gates and consolidate his position at Defense by sweeping out all the old Rumsfield hangovers. That won’t please Cheney, who was always the closest to Rummie in White house circles as the two of them headed the neocon cabal.

UPDATE III: A strong statement out from Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT): Read more

New Intel Report: Iraq Escalation Will Not Affect Sectarian Violence Nor Defeat Al Qaeda

Newly-disclosed intelligence reports state that Bush’s escalation is negatively impacting the situation in Iraq and is unlikely to change the level of violence on the ground.

In yesterday’s “war czar” confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) revealed the latest “secret intelligence conclusions,” presented by top U.S. intelligence officials during a closed-door session with the Armed Services Committee last month. The conclusions largely tracked the findings of the last National Intelligence Estimate, which found Iraq to be in a state worse than civil war.

Bayh disclosed that in the closed-door hearing, the intelligence officials emphasized that a sustained U.S. presence will not aid political reconciliation nor quell sectarian violence in the near future:

Their overall consensus was that the trend in Iraq is negative. … Their assessment was that the prospect for political steps in Iraq toward meaningful reconciliation among the different parties, that those steps toward reconciliation — the political steps — would be marginal at best through the end of this calendar year. … We were also told that the state of the insurgency — the level of violence and that sort of thing — was in all likelihood going to be about where it is today a year from now.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/06/bayhnie.320.240.flv]

Bayh quoted “the top CIA expert on radical Islam,” who told him recently that the U.S. presence in Iraq is generating more terrorists:

[I]n his opinion, our presence in Iraq is creating more members of Al Qaida than we are killing in Iraq.

That assessment debunks Bush’s contention that we must stay in Iraq in order to defeat al Qaeda. Lute agreed with all of the intelligence conclusions, stating that “very little progress” has been shown thus far. Explaining that there is no military solution in Iraq, Lute said “we’re not likely to see much difference in the security situation” if political and economic steps are not taken.

Transcript: Read more

Sen. Whitehouse: Petraeus Has ‘Conflicting Loyalty,’ Independent Iraq Report Needed

Many members of Congress have rallied behind a September deadline to reassess President Bush’s Iraq strategy, saying they will rely on a report from Gen. David Petraeus to determine whether escalation has been effective.

But despite numerous indicators that Bush’s strategy is failing, ABC News reported recently that Petraeus wants the “surge” to “continue until at least December,” and expects “to report enough progress by September to justify the extension.”

In an interview this week with ThinkProgress, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) became the first member of Congress to call for an independent analysis on the state of the war in September, in addition to Petraeus’ report. Whitehouse charged that Petraeus has an inherent “conflicting loyalty” between “the desire to please the president” and to report the unvarnished truth about Bush’s strategy.

“[H]ow General Petraeus chooses to balance those conflicting prerogatives is up to him and his conscience and I’m hoping and expecting that he’ll come back and speak very candidly to us,” Whitehouse said. But noting President Reagan’s maxim “trust but verify,” he added, “I don’t think it’s necessarily to distrust Petraeus to want to verify.”

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/06/Whitehouse1.320.240.flv]

Center for American Progress senior fellow Lawrence Korb, a former senior Reagan Pentagon official, called for such an independent assessment last month, writing that Petraeus “is not a reliable source for an unbiased assessment.” The group Third Way has a similar proposal. This past Sunday, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), a 37-year Marine Corps veteran, acknowledged that he has “lost a lot of confidence in many of the military leaders” because “they say what the White house wants them to say.”

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Defense Contractors Versus Hobbyists

One great perk of bothering to show up at The Atlantic‘s offices is that there’s all this free food and soda available on the third floor. Another great perk is that there are lots of copies of National Journal‘s insiderish publications lying around and there’s always some nugget of genius in them. Today’s CongressDaily AM, for example, has a story by Megan Scully dealing with the rare intersection of defense policy and intellectual property policy.

It seems that over the past decade, defense contractors have started making the companies that make models of military equipment pay royalty fees to the contractors. Now, Rep. Robert Andrews (D-NJ) is trying to get them some relief and has “convinced House Armed Services Chairman Skelton to insert a provision in the FY08 defense authorization bill that would require the Defense Department — not the defense industry — to issue trademark licenses for a ‘nominal’ fee.” The defense contractors, naturally, are fighting back, both because of the money directly involved and also because they want to fight the broader issue of principle over who owns these designs — the US military, or the defense contractors. I don’t see any good policy reason to think the contractors should own the trademarks (innovation in military hardware design is obviously going to be driven by the Pentagon, not by derivative licensing income) but defense contractors rarely lose a battle, so I wouldn’t be optimistic.

Yglesias

Bush versus Putin

Greg Djerejian thinks the wily Russian bested Bush in the art of diplomacy and grand strategy:

Putin, I think it’s fair to say, rather outmaneuvered Bush on this issue at the G-8 meeting, first by making the case there’s nothing particularly magic about the Polish and Czech locations, second by making the point those locations leave countries like Russia (and thus other countries east of Poland, like say Ukraine) exposed to the supposed Iranian missile threat to Europe, third by looking like he’s in good faith trying to work with the U.S. on a responsible collective security posture, while nevertheless rejecting key elements of the U.S. approach (which now no longer quite have the same trappings of something of a fait accompli), fourth by appearing now like he’s acted in good faith to broach a compromise so that when the U.S. essentially rejects in large part (as is ultimately likely) the Azeri option, Putin doesn’t appears the bad guy, and therefore, allows himself room to more robustly counter the ultimate American decision made (particularly re: the interceptors in Poland), so that he’ll be on firmer footing to showcase his disgreement.

But Bush will have a “war czar” soon, so things are sure to be back on track.

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