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Edwards Versus Petraeus

General Petraeus says we’ll be in Iraq for years. John Edwards fired back this morning:

“General Petraeus’ comments are just the latest example of the Bush Administration’s disconnect from the reality on the ground. In order to get the Iraqi people to take responsibility for their country, we must show them that we are serious about leaving, and the best way to do that is to actually start leaving. Instead of talking about keeping our troops in Iraq for another decade, the Administration should begin bringing our troops home to the hero’s welcome they deserve.

I’m not entirely sure how this fits into the residual forces debate but Edwards does seem to be at least playing footsie with the idea of differentiating himself on this issue.

Snow: ‘I Don’t Know’ If Iraq War Has Helped Stabilize Middle East, It’s ‘Hard To Say’

In November, months before President Bush announced the troop escalation, Jordan’s King Abdullah predicted that three civil wars could erupt in the Middle East in 2007. “We’re juggling with the strong potential of three civil wars in the region, whether it’s the Palestinians, that of Lebanon or of Iraq,” he said.

With the eruption of violence recently in Lebanon and Gaza, Abdullah’s prediction has manifested into a bloody reality.

During today’s press briefing, CNN correspondent Ed Henry asked White House spokesman Tony Snow whether the “war in Iraq has helped push the peace process forward in any way.” Snow’s response: “Don’t know. … Hard to say.” Echoing his claim last week attacks in Iraq were “signs of success,” Snow suggested that the increased violence in the region is a by-product of “pro-democracy movements…making some progress.” Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2007/06/snowmideast.320.240.flv]

But the White House’s uncertainty marks a stark departure from Bush’s confidence in the early stages of the war. In July 2003, Bush stated:

A free Iraq will not destabilize the Middle East. A free Iraq can set a hopeful example to the entire region and lead other nations to choose freedom. And as the pursuits of freedom replace hatred and resentment and terror in the Middle East, the American people will be more secure.

Yesterday on CBS’ Face the Nation, Iraq Study Group co-chair Lee Hamilton offered a very different take than Snow. “The Middle East is in flames,” Hamilton said. “Everywhere you look, there’s deep trouble — Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinians, the peace process, Iran.” Asked whether the instability was linked to the war, Hamilton replied, “Of course they’re linked.”

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Surge No Matter What

That surge architect Fred Kagan thinks the surge’s failure to deliver results merely proves the need to take more time with the surge is unsurprising. The end of the article, however, is striking. Kagan, according to Time‘s Michael Duffy, “fears a significant increase in Iranian support for those fighting U.S. forces. Finally, he noted that the shaky government of Nouri al-Maliki could just implode.”

While that might not end the cause of progress in Iraq, Kagan said, it could lead to something worse for those who believed a surge would lead to a stabilization of Iraq: a breakdown in political support for the war effort in Washington.

In other words, according to Kagan even the total collapse of the Iraqi government wouldn’t, in his mind, demonstrate that the war had failed. Even under those circumstances he’s going to stick to the stab in the back story that the only problem is the collapse of political support for the war here in DC.

Failing Pakistan Policy ‘Essentially Being Run From Cheney’s Office’

cheney.jpgThe extremely close U.S. partnership with Pakistan’s General Musharraf has come under increasing scrutiny, as Musharraf continues to crack down on the country’s civil society and a new generation of al Qaeda leaders under Osama bin Laden have led a resurgence in Pakistan.

The Bush administration “has put itself in the embarrassing position of propping up the Muslim world’s most powerful military dictator as an essential ally in its half-baked campaign to promote democracy throughout the Muslim world,” the New York Times editorialized last week. “Washington needs to disentangle America, quickly, from the general’s damaging embrace.”

In yesterday’s Washington Post, respected Pakistan analyst Ahmed Rashid explained a key problem with current U.S. policy:

The problem is exacerbated by a dramatic drop-off in U.S. expertise on Pakistan. Retired American officials say that, for the first time in U.S. history, nobody with serious Pakistan experience is working in the South Asia bureau of the State Department, on State’s policy planning staff, on the National Security Council staff or even in Vice President Cheney’s office. Anne W. Patterson, the new U.S. ambassador to Islamabad, is an expert on Latin American “drugs and thugs”; Richard A. Boucher, the assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, is a former department spokesman who served three tours in Hong Kong and China but never was posted in South Asia. “They know nothing of Pakistan,” a former senior U.S. diplomat said.

Current and past U.S. officials tell me that Pakistan policy is essentially being run from Cheney’s office. The vice president, they say, is close to Musharraf and refuses to brook any U.S. criticism of him. This all fits; in recent months, I’m told, Pakistani opposition politicians visiting Washington have been ushered in to meet Cheney’s aides, rather than taken to the State Department.

Cheney’s office has been linked to some of the most damaging and reckless policies carried out under President Bush, including the origins of the war in the Iraq, warrantless domestic spying, the historic expansion of executive authority and the sanctioning of torture. It’s no surprise to find Cheney’s fingerprints on the failing U.S.-Pakistan policy as well.

UPDATE: Harper’s Scott Horton has more.

Yglesias

Somalia

Back in December the wingnut party line was that Ethiopia would be untroubled (“There may be lessons for the United States in Ethiopia’s success”) in its conquest of Somalia thanks to their affinity for brutal tactics (“Ethiopia has less concern than the U.S. about civilian casualties”) and the absence of a troublesome press corps (“The Ethiopian government is generally less sensitive to media criticism than the U.S. government—and is likely to encounter far less criticism in the first place, since the press traditionally gives short shrift to coverage of Africa”) thus guaranteeing success. It turns out, though, that you can have an insurgency anyway just about any time your country invades another one and tries to use its military to prop up a friendly regime on the conquered country’s soil.

Photo by Flickr user ctsnow used under a Creative Commons license.

Yglesias

“Terrorists”

US forces fight Iranian-backed militias in southern Iraq. Or, as the Pentagon put it:

“During the close air support, at least 20 terrorists were killed and six suspected terrorists were assessed to be wounded by the strafing,” the military said. “A vehicle being used by the terrorists as a fighting position was also destroyed by the close air support.”

This is a somewhat delicate issue to raise, but the war in Iraq seems to have spawned a wholly abusive use of the term “terrorist.” The battle came about because “Coalition aircraft were called in to strafe fighters who attacked Coalition troops in Amarah and Majjar al-Kabir, two Shiite cities in the Mayson province bordering Iran, the military said.” Surely, though, people who use force against soldiers are paradigmatic examples of people who aren’t terrorists — with terrorism being defined by the use of force against civilians.

Yglesias

The Blame Game

070616-D-7203T-012

Atrios nails the problem with a residual force with his customary pith: “What drives me nuts about this residual force stuff, aside from how arbitrary it is, is that there’s never any thought to exactly what these 50,000 should do. Basically, as the violence rages around them they’re supposed to sit there to ensure that… there isn’t even more violence raging around them. But it isn’t really enough people to actually intervene, especially given that not even close to that many would be combat troops.”

Quite so. Unfortunately, in another customary attribute that I’m less enthusiastic about, the target of Atrios’ ire is International Herald Tribune columnist Roher Cohen. Cohen is appropriately mocked as a “Very Serious Person.” But while media criticism certainly has its place, the reality is that the prime advocates of a residual force in Iraq aren’t Cohen or other “wankers” in the press, but Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and much of the Democratic congressional leadership. That we can be in the midst of a primary campaign during which the candidates are supposedly looking to “pander” to the dread damn dirty hippies of the base and yet none of the front-running candidates will make a clear promise to leave Iraq and attack his or her rivals for failing to do the same is rather astounding.

If a pollster called me tomorrow and asked who I was supporting, I would say “Bill Richardson” out of a hope that perhaps a smallish Richardson surge would convince someone else to adopt his position on Iraq — we should leave.

Defense Department photo.

Yglesias

Double Standard: In a Good Way!

Let me say at the outset that despite my various criticisms of Israeli policy and of US policy toward Israel, I think efforts by professional associations to organize boycotts of comparable Israeli professional associations or products are essentially wrongheaded and counterproductive. That said, I’ve been very uncomfortable with some of the Anti-Defamation League’s advertising on this point, especially one ad that’s run on this site and says “400,000 murdered in DARFUR and British journalists are boycotting ISRAEL?” Now I see via Brian Beutler that Thomas Friedman’s on the same kick:

So to single out Israeli universities alone for a punitive boycott is rank anti-Semitism. Let’s see, Syria is being investigated by the United Nations for murdering Lebanon’s former prime minister, Rafik Hariri. Syrian agents are suspected of killing the finest freedom-loving Lebanese journalists, Gibran Tueni and Samir Kassir. But none of that moves the far left to call for a boycott of Syrian universities. Why? Sudan is engaged in genocide in Darfur. Why no boycott of Sudan? Why?

Brian points out that many of these countries already are sanctioned, but I see a much larger kind of problem here. One issue is that it’s really sad to see American Jews’ longstanding interest in human rights issues turned here into a crude tool to deflect away criticism from Israel. The American Jewish World Service Darfur campaign is about trying to help people in Darfur. ADL’s interest in the atrocities there seems limited to the argument that as long as conditions in the Palestinian territories don’t devolve to that level, then things must all be on the up-and-up.

More broadly, though, people complaining about double-standards seem to me to be straightforwardly misreading a kind of compliment as a sign of anti-semitism. To me it’s reasonably clear that you get this sort of agitation about Israeli actions precisely because people believe the Israeli government and electorate may be amenable to efforts at moral and political suasion. That Ehud Olmert is no Bashar Asad or Kim Jong Il is precisely the point.

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