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Dick Cheney: ‘I Always Think Of Bernard Lewis’

lewisDick Cheney was on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show yesterday, offering his serious and sobering take on serious and sobering events. Asked about Iran’s role in Iraq, Cheney responded that “Iran has been a bad actor in many respects“:

The Iranians have got a choice between whether or not they want to see a successful, stable Iraq, democratically governed next door to them, or whether they want to continue to try to promote strife and instability, and support acts of terror, and in the process of doing that, permanently damage their relationship with Iraq, their next door neighbor.

As Brian Katulis and I write in an op-ed in today’s Baltimore Sun, Bush and Cheney’s characterization of Iran’s relationship with the government of Iraq is extremely misleading. Iran maintains ties to all of the major Shia actors in Iraq. There’s little evidence that Iran is in danger of “permanently damaging” its relationship with its neighbor, or maybe Cheney didn’t see any of the pictures of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s public welcome there, which came only a few days before Cheney himself was once again smuggled in and out like a box of contraband cigars.

Hewitt and Cheney’s conversation starts to get really loopy, though, when Hewitt undertakes to question Cheney about elements of Shia eschatology, and, even more amazing, Cheney undertakes to answer him.

HEWITT: Do you, Mr. Vice President, do you have a personal sense of whether or not the Iranian leadership is actually motivated by this end times, bring back the 12th Imam sort of theology that we’ve read so much about?

CHENEY: Well, I’ve read about it, too. I don’t know that that motivates all of the leadership. The one guy who talks about it repeatedly is Ahmadinejad…I mean, if I look at what his beliefs supposedly are, the allegation that the return of the 12th Imam is something to be much desired, and that the best contribution that a man can make is to die a martyr facilitating that return, and all that goes with it, I always think of Bernard Lewis, who has said that mutual assured destruction during the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviets meant peace and stability and deterrence. But mutual assured destruction in the hands of Ahmadinejad may just be an incentive. It’s a worrisome proposition.

Another worrisome proposition is that Cheney is still quoting scholar Bernard Lewis, whose learned foreign policy advice to the Vice President was that “one of the things you’ve got to do with Arabs is hit them between the eyes with a big stick. They respect power.” Lewis advocated the Iraq invasion in the delusion that we could quickly, and with a minimum of fuss, install a modernizing Ataturk-like secular strongman there, (how’d that work out?) and is also the originator of the “clash of civilizations” thesis that has done so much to confirm Osama bin Laden’s propaganda about the West. Shukran, Professor Lewis!

Dan Froomkin has more, noting that Lewis “hinted in an Aug. 8, 2006, Wall Street Journal op-ed that Ahmadinejad might be planning a nuclear attack on Israel just two weeks later, on the date in the Islamic calendar when the Prophet Muhammad made his mystical journey to Jerusalem…Needless to say, the day went by without incident.”

Yglesias

The Legitimacy Difference

Unfortunately, I’m now having trouble tracking down the specific comment, but someone asked the other day with regard to Heads in the Sand what’s the difference between liberal international and just “imperial adventures I approve of.” That’s an important question, because I do think some liberals basically see it that way.

But the difference that I see (and this is in no way an original-to-me idea) has to do with legitimacy and institutions. One alternative to an imperial conception of America’s role in the world would be to adopt a “mind our own business” posture. The liberal alternative rejects this, but also rejects the idea that the purpose of our engagement with the world should be to try to come out as top dog in an endless struggle. Instead, it seems international conflict as negative sum and international cooperation as positive sum. With that understanding, liberals seek to build and strengthen institutions that facilitate cooperation and offer less-destructive means of resolving conflicts.

Liberal internationalist willingness to use force abroad should, following the above, be constrained by ideas about legitimacy. The currently prevailing ideology in the United States holds that, in essence, we have a right to use force unilaterally against countries whose WMD or human rights policies we don’t like, but no other country has this right and we have no need to apply the same standard to different countries. The liberal sees that this is incoherent and unworkable, and though agreeing that the United States rightly concerns itself with WMD and human rights issues in foreign countries, thinks these need to be dealt with through some kind of reasonable legal, procedural, and institutional frameworks — the U.N. Security Council, the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the IAEA, etc., etc., — and that flaws in these frameworks should be dealt with through good-faith efforts to improve the frameworks rather than to cast them aside. The general idea is that American power should be used in way that’s sustainable rather than threatening to the rest of the world, because it gives adequate deference to the fact that other countries have their own interests and perspectives.

Of course these ideas don’t fully specify a foreign policy — the Security Council could authorize something foolish or impractical and existing rules and institutions are often in need of change of one kind or another. But it does generate a framework within which to think about this. We want and need to be involved in the problems of the world, but wish to do so in a constructive, legitimate manner that involves working with other countries according to the established rules of the game as laid out in treaties, etc. rather than fooling ourselves into thinking that if we cast off all restraint we’ll be able to remake the world with ease.

Photo by Flickr user etobicokesouth used under a Creative Commons license

Yglesias

Blurbs

Justin Logan notes that the “McCain’s no neocon” theory is a bit hard to square with the fact that McCain also blurbed Robert Kagan’s book. It’s true that Kagan (this Kagan!) is the neocon writer who’s most likely to garner praise from non-neos, but he’s still very much a true believer in that approach to foreign policy and the McCain blurb reflects how deeply enmeshed McCain is with that circle of thinkers.

Yglesias

In Defense of Good Stuff

I think Ross Douthat makes many good points in response to Robert Kagan’s “Neocon Nation” but let me remark at greater length on the problem Ross identifies and then passes over lightly in favor of a different problem:

The first is the broadness of its argument, which elides the fact that those “variations” within the interventionist camp can be very significant indeed, and that the shared belief in “American power and the ability of the United States to use that power to beneficial ends in the world” is for many critics of neoconservatism the beginning of the argument, rather than the end of it.

I think this is what comes of dwelling too long in rhetorical foxholes alongside people who accuse their political opponents of holding “anti-American” views. Obviously, the vast majority of Americans are going to believe that American power ought to be used to beneficial ends in the world. It would be bizarre, after all, to hold a self-conscious believe that American power ought to be used for malign ends. That’s just human psychology, not a fact about our political culture or our foreign policy. The whole game is in answering questions like what kind of power? what kind of uses? which ends are beneficial? Adolf Hitler and Angela Merkel both believe that Germany, as Europe’s largest nation, ought to play a significent role in the affairs of the continent and this tells us nothing at all about either of them or their policies.

Some people believe that things like invading Iraq will help secure beneficial ends. Others believe that a defensively-oriented military posture combined with an economy open to foreign goods and immigrants will best secure beneficial ends. Some think the United States ought to secure beneficial ends by working to strengthen and uphold international institutions and laws, whereas others regard these institutions as tools of the week designed to prevented us from bringing the beneficence of unilateral hegemony to the world. This is the entire content of our foreign policy debate.

For neocons to stand amidst the wreckage that their ideas have wrought vaguely muttered that everyone who believes that it’s good to do good stuff really agrees with them is a little absurd.

Yglesias

Talking to Hamas

To wend a bit of a middle path between Messrs. Klein and Chait, I think it’s perfectly reasonable for an American president to say that he wouldn’t have any diplomatic talks with Hamas as long as that’s Israel’s position as well — after all, what would they talk about? Hamas can’t make concessions to the United States nor is there much of anything the United States would concede to Hamas. So in that sense, Barack Obama’s refusal to expand his generous meetings policy to Hamas is both defensible policy and a good cheap talk way of saying something that “pro-Israel” folks like.

The more meaningful question facing an American administration would be what kind of counsel/pressure/whatever they give to the government of Israel regarding holding talks with Hamas. The Bush administration, in line with their general approach to the world, has always signaled unconditional support for Israel’s preconditions for dealing with Hamas, even though it was the Bush administration that engineered Hamas’ rise to power. It seems to me that the reasons it’s smart for the U.S. to, as Obama suggests, negotiate in a meaningful way with countries like Syria and Iran are roughly the same as the reasons why it would be smart for Israel to negotiate with Hamas without preconditions. Whether or not Obama agrees with that or communicates those sentiments to the Israelis is the more substantial issue.

Yglesias

Anarchy in the Iraq

Graeme Wood argues in a Current that it probably takes a little lawlessness and anarchy to make an imperial outpost like the Green Zone and its associated supply lines and protective networks function. I’m not at all certain that Graeme would agree, but this has long been part of the traditional case that empire abroad will undermine the idea of a democratic republic at home. The corruption and sexual violence that’s the subject of his piece is part of that, and the emergence of an active duty theater commander as one of the top GOP surrogates in an election year should probably be seen as another part.

All this is, further, related to things like the Bush administration’s funny-business with the looming status of forces agreement with Iraq. The administration claims that it’s not customary to submit a SOFA for congressional approval, so they’re free to conclude it as an executive agreement. That seems plausible, perhaps, until you consider that this is hardly the same as a peacetime SOFA — following the expiration of the controlling U.N. resolution at the end of the year, the SOFA will be the only legal basis for the continued presence of American forces in the middle of a war zone. And while lots of folks on the Hill are complaining about this, everybody thinks that he will, in practice, be able to get away with it. After all, it’s become an entrenched precept of U.S. politico-media culture that any failure of congress to pony up the funds necessary for the president to do whatever he wants constitutes an abandonment of “the troops.” This turns the constitutional scheme on its head, but it’s where we’ve come to, and the trend certainly didn’t start with George W. Bush.

Yglesias

Deterrence

I don’t have any strong objections to the idea of extending the US “nuclear umbrella” to protect Israel in case of an Iranian nuclear attack, but Charles Krauthammer is aware that Israel already has its own nuclear arsenal, right? I assume that an Israeli threat of a nuclear second strike is going to be a good deal more credible than anything a third party could offer. This is, after all, presumably why Israel went through the trouble of building the nukes.

Yglesias

Opportunity of a Lifetime

It’s interesting to learn that investors seem to be rushing to buy Iraqi debt and the risk premium is declining even though “the central government could face challenges from the rising influence of provincial rulers.” Certainly I look forward to when rescuing holders of Iraqi bonds from default becomes the rationale for why we can’t leave Iraq.

McCain — The Neocon Candidate (Part 2): 100 Years Of Cluelessness

mccainAs I wrote in Part 1 of this series, John McCain shares with the neoconservatives a similar expansive view of American power. What he also shares, however, is an alarmingly simplistic view of Islamic extremism.

One of McCain’s favorite talking points over the last few months has been that radical Islamic extremism is “the transcendent challenge of the 21st century.” He used this formulation in his Foreign Affairs manifesto last year. It was also featured prominently in his March 26 foreign policy address, and he tends to use it whenever he talks about national security.

For all of McCain’s media-abetted posturing as a foreign policy expert, however, there’s no evidence that McCain’s ever really understood the region from whence comes this transcendent challenge. Casting this struggle in grandiose terms is a way to hide the fact that he doesn’t really understand what it is.

Here’s what McCain said in his foreign policy address on March 26:

This challenge is transcendent not because it is the only one we face. There are many dangers in today’s world, and our foreign policy must be agile and effective at dealing with all of them. But the threat posed by the terrorists is unique. They alone devote all their energies and indeed their very lives to murdering innocent men, women, and children. They alone seek nuclear weapons and other tools of mass destruction not to defend themselves or to enhance their prestige or to give them a stronger hand in world affairs but to use against us wherever and whenever they can.

McCain’s website contains similarly vague references to “the war against the terrorists.” McCain has never really defined who these terrorists are, apart from “radical Islamists,” nor does he suggest any difference in either goals or ideology among the various groups so labeled.

And that’s what’s really scary. As far as McCain is concerned, it’s all one big Islamofascist (sic) front against the West, Al Qaeda equals Iran equals Muqtada al-Sadr equals Hamas equals Hezbollah equals whomever’s shooting at us this week. This is the same sort of thinking that got us into Iraq. And we shouldn’t be surprised about this, because John McCain is being advised by many of the very same people who put us there. Like his advisers, McCain tends to cast all of these groups and movements together under the heading “radical Islamic terrorism” and proceed as if this were actually a strategically meaningful category.

McCain has made a number of gaffes over the past few months, suggesting on several occasions that Iran was training Al Qaeda, then briefly identifying Al Qaeda as Shia at Tuesday’s hearings. While I do think it’s significant that McCain may not, at this late date, have yet committed these things to memory, I think it’s even more significant that, in McCain’s foreign policy view, they don’t even really matter.

Yglesias

The Arik Scenario

Noah Millman sketches out a scenario in which John McCain, like Ariel Sharon, upon being confronted with the burdens of office tempers his views in a more pragmatic direction and surprises people. It definitely could happen. Heck, maybe McCain could be the Nixon who goes to Teheran. But as Millman says it’s “a fairly audacious hope, given how McCain has positioned himself over the past decade.”

And, indeed, while there’s a general unpredictability about these things the safest assumption seems to me to be that McCain roughly believes what he’s been saying all this time. It’s not as if he’s a guy with a lifelong passion for economic policy who started imitating Bush’s lines when he decided to run for President. He’s in the military, then he’s dispatched by the military to represent their interests in congress, then he’s a member of congress and senator himself who’s always been interested in military issues who was “talking like Bush” before Bush was talking like Bush. In other words, he’s probably thought this all through and if he wins intends to govern accordingly. Maybe not. We can have hope. But I wouldn’t count on him reversing course.

McCain Adviser Ralph Peters: Military Strain From Stop-Loss Policies Is ‘A Myth Of The Left’

On Sept. 14, 2001, President Bush issued Executive Order 13223, allowing the administration to implement a “stop-loss” policy. Under stop-loss, “military personnel can be prevented from leaving the armed forces upon completing their enlistment terms.” Stop-loss policies were created after the Vietnam War. However, the Bush administration has overstretched the military by extensively using these orders to make up for declines in re-enlistment as the Iraq war drags on.

Yesterday on PBS’s Newshour, ret. Lt. Col. Ralph Peters — who now advises Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) presidential campaign on national security affairs — called the dangers of stop-loss policies a “myth of the left.” “Stop-loss is old,” said Peters. “This is not a new thing. In time of crisis, soldiers can be extended. They know it.”

Peters was sharply rebutted by Bobby Muller, president of Veterans for America, who pointed out that many high-ranking military officials have also warned that the Bush administration’s policies are overstretching the armed forces:

BOBBY MULLER: You might think that Bobby Muller is parroting myths created by the left in this country when I talk about stop-loss, but Colin Powell is not parroting any left-wing fantasies. General Casey, General Cody, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mullen, they’re on record. This is not sustainable. There are people being held…

RALPH PETERS: But that’s a different issue.

BOBBY MULLER: I suggest that you may be out of touch with the military today if you think that all of these people that sign up for four years or five years of active military duty really expected — just like the National Guard — that they would wind up being extended for, additionally, a couple of years beyond their contract period?

No, sir, they’re not expecting that.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/04/peterspbs34234.320.240.flv]

Yesterday, Bush finally announced that he would be “cutting Army combat tours in Iraq from 15 months to 12 months.” This move came after months of warnings from his top military advisers. “The current demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply,” Army Chief of Staff George Casey said back in September. This week, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen noted he was “very public for many months that we need to get off 15 month deployments as fast as we can.” In July 2007, Gen. Colin Powell also observed, “[T]hey probably can’t keep this up at this level past the middle of next year, I would guess. This is a tremendous burden on our troops.”

If Peters believes that there is nothing wrong with stop-loss, is he advising McCain to sustain this policy…perhaps for 100 years?

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Yglesias

Strategic Confusion

When Michael O’Hanlon sneezes, the resulting mucous becomes two op-eds in prominent newspapers. Bill Kristol, Charles Krauthammer, and Robert Kagan are all regular columnists. But when CAP’s Brian Katulis and Matt Duss want to bring some facts into the discussion it winds up in The Baltimore Sun. Fortuately, thanks to the magic of the internet, a Sun article can be read anywhere. Let’s hope it is:

Speaking before Congress, General Petraeus said, “Iran has fueled the violence in a particularly damaging way through its lethal support to the special groups,” referring to Shiite splinter groups allegedly receiving support from Iran. According to the general, the recent clashes between Shiite groups stretching from Basra in the south all the way to Baghdad “highlighted the destructive role Iran has played in funding, training, arming, and directing the so-called special groups.”

Conservatives such as Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, have latched on to this incomplete description of the ongoing intra-Shiite struggles in Iraq as the latest reason why our over- stretched military forces must remain in Iraq. [...]

These depictions ignore an inconvenient truth: The leaders in Iraq’s current government are closely aligned with Tehran and represent some of Iran’s closest allies in Iraq. This is perhaps best illustrated by the warm welcome Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received in his visit to Iraq last month, which punctures the myth that the current battle is between a unified Iraqi government and fringe groups receiving support from Iran.

But we need resolve or else people get bolder!

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