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O’Hanlon Delivers A Message Tehran Would Love

Our guest blogger is Peter Juul, a national security consultant at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

ohanlon123.jpgMichael O’Hanlon has yet another op-ed in the Washington Times today arguing that Iran is “seeking to establish itself as the region’s hegemon,” primarily by “stoking violence in Iraq.” Iranian involvement in Iraq has thus become another rationale for O’Hanlon’s open-ended policy of “strategic patience” in Iraq. To prevent Iran from becoming a regional hegemon, the argument goes, “all [the United States] can do is be patient, keep fighting in Iraq… and keep trying to prove we are the reasonable ones.”

O’Hanlon chides proponents of engagement with Iran as failing to “understand the real nature of the situation we face.” As usual, though, it’s O’Hanlon who doesn’t understand the real nature of the situation the United States faces in Iraq and the region more broadly.

As the New York Times reported today, the United States and Iran increasingly find themselves on common ground in Iraq as a result of the open-ended commitment of U.S. forces favored by O’Hanlon and the Bush administration. Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qumi, gave strong support to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s offensive against Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra: “The idea of the government in Basra was to fight outlaws. This was the right of the government and the responsibility of the government. And in my opinion the government was able to achieve a positive result in Basra.”

The Iranian ambassador’s words could have come out of the mouth of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. In an unannounced visit to Baghdad yesterday, she praised Maliki’s “very good decision by the Iraqis to not let Basra continue to be under the control of criminals and militias.” Read more

Rice: ‘Badr Has Decided To Be An Organization, Not A Militia’

During a press conference in which Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mocked Iraq Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr for issuing threats from Iran (unlike Rice’s bosses, who bravely issue threats from the trenches of Washington, DC), Secretary Rice and Ambassador Crocker were asked about distinctions between a militia like the Badr Organization, the militia wing of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), and Sadr’s Mahdi Army. Here’s what was said:

QUESTION: What is the distinction that all of you make between groups like the Badr Organization, which his for all intents a militia and in the past has been involved in events here that have been troublesome, even in 2005, 2006, not at the same level as the Jaish al-Mahdi, but clearly involved? So what’s the distinction you make between the Badr Organization? Why are they now different to the Jaish al-Mahdi?

AMBASSADOR CROCKER: The Badr organization made the choice a while back that they were going to step away from a militia identity and move into politics. That’s why it’s the Badr Organization. It used to be the Badr Brigades. They have opted to be, again, part of mainstream politics here. That’s the choice that’s now in front of the Sadr movement.

QUESTION: When would you say that they really changed to that? Because in 2005, there was the Jadriya bunker incident which was clearly linked to the –

SECRETARY RICE: We’re three years past that. And –

QUESTION: So when was the transition? In 2007, there was a case of a member of the Badr Organization threatening Hussein Kamal when he was here –

SECRETARY RICE: Look, I don’t think you can say that there won ‘t be an individual here or there who may break this — that decision to move in that direction. But Badr as an organization has decided to be an organization, not to be a militia.

Okay, glad we got that cleared up. The Badr are no longer considered a “militia” because they have decided to redefine themselves as “not a militia,” and the U.S. is apparently satisfied with this. Now, if only Muqtada al-Sadr would cease his opposition to the U.S. occupation of Iraq and get on board with the U.S.’s plans to use his country as a base from which to project power throughout the Middle East, he would be amazed at how fast the U.S. would be willing to redefine his militia in a similar fashion.

The truth is that, despite this transparent attempt to redefine these militias in a way that reflects “progress” in Iraq, they remain militias. Badr and Da’wa militiamen have been incorporated into the “Iraqi army” in Baghdad and southern Iraq, just as units of the Kurdish peshmerga have been incorporated into the “Iraqi army” in Kurdistan, but despite the new uniforms, these fighters remain loyal to, and continue to commit violence on behalf of, the political factions with which they originated. This is what is known as “success” in Surgeland.

McClatchy News Service Baghdad bureau chief Leila Fadel was interviewed on Bill Moyers’ program last Friday, and explained how silly these word games are.

Watch it:

[flv http://video.thinkprogress.org/2008/04/LeilaFadelMilitias.320.240.flv]

Transcript below: Read more

Yglesias

Gates v. Air Force

One interesting Iraq-related subplot has been the escalating sniping between Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and the Air Force over the latter’s foot-dragging on making itself useful for the conflicts the United States is actually engaged in rather than building up for hypothetical great power conflicts. A new edition comes today with Gates chiding air force students at Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base.

I have somewhat mixed feelings about this, because Gates is basically right on the merits, but the whole issue has gotten tied in with the merits of the war in Iraq in complicated and fairly contingent ways.

Yglesias

The Pakistan Situation

Adam Blickstein looks at some confusing reports about the state of play in Pakistan. Reports, one assumes, are bound to be somewhat confusing as the new government is trying to jell and people are, presumably, at least somewhat inclined to lie to both the U.S. government and the Pakistani people about the extent of their cooperation with our government.

The very complexity of the situation is a reminder that when we talk about Iraq taking resources away from the Afghanistan-Pakistan situation, we’re not just talking about X number of planes and Y number of soldiers. We’re also talking about scarce resources like attention and expertise. It’s a complicated, delicate, multi-faceted situation — do we have our best diplomats working on it? Are agency heads and cabinet secretaries in DC spending enough time staying on top of events? Is the President paying attention? These aren’t just questions for the Bush administration, they’ll be questions for a Democratic administration as well. Reducing force levels in Iraq down to a “residual” point will solve some of the resource problems relating to inattention to Central Asia but not all of them by any means.

Yglesias

Praise for HITS

Martin Hollick reads Heads in the Sand and says “It’s great. You may think a book on foreign policy would be dry, but how can you not love an introduction that quotes both Nietzsche and Peanuts?” Indeed, it’s actually impossible to avoid loving this book. But to love it, you must buy it. So why not buy a copy today and finally learn to love? And also about how to somewhat misapply Nietzsche in order to mock Tom Friedman.

Meanwhile, Martin thought something I said didn’t make sense, but then it was all explained on the very next page because that’s how awesome the book is. Incidentally, anyone out there who’s reading the book and saying nice things about it on their blog should feel free to email (I’m myglesias at gmail or at theatlantic) me looking for links — it’s win-in.

Also on his blog, I too wonder why musical theater translates so poorly to film. One relevant point may be that animated musical movies seem to me to work much better, but I’m not sure what that gets you exactly.

Muslim Organizations Call On McCain To Drop ‘Islamic’ Terrorist Label

mccainfist.jpg One of Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) favorite talking points is railing against “Islamic” extremists and terrorists. A few examples:

– “[M]y Democrat opponents who want to pull out of Iraq refuse to understand what’s being said and what’s happening, and that is, the central battleground is Iraq in this struggle against radical Islamic extremism.” [3/24/08]

– McCain underscored “that his focus as president would be waging war against ‘radical Islamic extremism.’ Speaking to about 500 party faithful…McCain said the war in Iraq was part of the fight against Islamic extremism, ‘the greatest evil, probably, that this nation has ever faced.’” [2/18/08]

– “‘The transcendent issue of this campaign will be this conflict we are in between good and evil, between the forces of radical Islamic extremism that are trying to destroy America and everything we believe in,’ McCain told reporters.” [3/16/07]

The Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) — the nation’s largest association of Muslim organizations — has now started a campaign to persuade McCain to drop the adjective “Islamic” when describing terrorists and extremists. ISNA head Muneer Fareed told the Washington Times:

We’ve tried to contact his office, contact his spokesperson to have them rethink word usage that is more acceptable to the Muslim community. If it’s not our intent to paint everyone with the same brush, then certainly we should think seriously about just characterizing them as criminals, because that is what they are.

McCain’s campaign, however, refuses to budge. Senior adviser Steve Schmidt said that the senator will continue to use the term: “But the reality is, the hateful ideology which underpins bin Ladenism is properly described as radical Islamic extremism. Senator McCain refers to it that way because that is what it is.”

As The New York Times noted this weekend, McCain frequently oversimplifies the threats abroad, incorrectly using the “shorthand ‘Al Qaeda’ to describe the enemy in Iraq.” The term “Islamic extremism” is similarly sloppy, denigrating Islam as a violent religion while conflating the diverse, multifaceted threats coming from abroad. Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. John Abizaid has also said that “even adding the word Islamic” is counterproductive to keeping extremism “from becoming mainstream.”

Yglesias

Costs of COIN

Here’s the crucial part of Armed Liberal’s dismissal of folks upset about the fact that teevee networks were putting “military analysts” up on screen purporting to be neutral observers when they were, in fact, acting as administration spokespeople:

I don’t think it’s wrong to be concerned about the government shaping the news. I think it’s necessary to shape perception as a part of any successful counterinsurgency.

Unfortunately, I think there’s a lot of truth to this. If you think, as John McCain and George Bush and about 30 percent of Americans do, that an indefinite American military operation in Iraq is a good idea then you need to engage in a lot of propaganda operations. After all, realistically we are much more likely to leave Iraq because politicians representing the views of the 70 percent of the public who doesn’t think that an indefinite American military operation in Iraq is a good idea than we are to be literally driven out by Iraqis who oppose the U.S. presence.

This is just one of the ways in which a protracted Iraq-style engagement tends to undermine the small-d and small-r democratic and republican values on which the country was founded. You see this in the way that David Petraeus has become a key official administration spokesman and you see it in the Times story about semi-covert operations happening on our cable networks. During Vietnam, of course, we had the government’s security apparatus spending time working against anti-war groups, and for all we know this sort of thing is why the Bush administration is so eager to wiretap people without warrants.

This is the kind of thing that happens when an ongoing war becomes a key subject of political controversy, but at least the Civil War and World War I were conflicts that ended. The hawks’ vision of a “Long War” means that we can expect them to continue these kind of emergency measures and abuses forever and ever.

Yglesias

HITS Event

If you feel like I’ve bugged you enough already about my book let it be known that I have not yet begun to self-promote. Indeed, the book’s official release date is not until April 25 (though online orders are already shipping, so don’t let that stop you from ordering one today). Also on April 25, my firstbook event at the Center for American Progress:

In a controversial new book on America’s debates over national security, Matthew Yglesias, associate editor of The Atlantic Monthly, presents a critical analysis of progressives’ failure to produce a coherent alternative to the conservative approach to foreign policy. Conventional examinations of progressives’ political difficulties in dealing with the national security issue focus on a perceived lack of “toughness.” Heads in the Sand proposes a different theory: that progressives have had difficulty taking full advantage of the Bush administration’s failures because they’ve largely avoided arguing on the strategic level.

Rand Beers, President of the National Security Network and Kurt Campbell, Chief Executive Officer of the Center for a New American Security and co-author [with Michael O'Hanlon -- MY] of Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security, will offer a critical analysis of the book’s argument from their perspectives as the leaders of two institutions working to engage in America’s national security and defense policy debates.

It should be awesome. My fellow panelists have a lot more playoff experience and veteran savvy so I’m hoping to steal home court advantage by packing the arena with blog readers. The event is from noon to 1:30 PM at CAP HQ, 1333 H Street NW so if you have the kind of job that lets you count attending think tank events as working, or if you work in the neighborhood and can take some time over lunch, please come out. Click here to RSVP.

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