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The Consequences Of McCain’s Bad Judgment

mccain-market1.jpgJeffrey Goldberg’s interview of John McCain is very worth reading, as it gives a pretty good view into the coloring book version of the Middle East that McCain offers to the American people. For all of the Middle East leaders that McCain has met with — and he really, really wants you to know how many he has met with — McCain’s knowledge of the region persists at the level of a twenty minute briefing. It’s nice that he can name-check Barak, Olmert, and Abbas; It would be really nice if he demonstrated any knowledge of the history of the Israel-Palestine conflict, or offered any good idea on how to move the peace process forward, which he does not.

What’s really troubling is McCain’s cluelessness about the disastrous effects of the Iraq war on American security. Asked by Goldberg whether he thinks Iran’s intention “is the actual destruction of America,” McCain answers that…the United States should stay in Iraq:

It’s hard for me to say what their intentions are, but the effect -– If they were able to drive us out of Iraq, and al Qaeda established a base there, and the Shiite militias erupted and the Iranian influence was expanded, which to my mind is what would happen, then the consequences for American national security would be profound. I don’t know if their intention is to destroy America and what we stand for, but I think the consequences of them succeeding in the destruction of the state of Israel and their continued support for terrorist organizations – all of these would have profound national security consequences.

You know what’s also had profound negative consequences for American national security? Invading and occupying Iraq. McCain has offered this justification before, and continues to completely miss the point.

Iran has been the single biggest beneficiary of the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. Former diplomat Peter Galbraith wrote last September that Iraq was a “mission accomplished–for Iran“:

Of all the unintended consequences of the Iraq war, Iran’s strategic victory is the most far-reaching…For eight years of brutal warfare in the 1980s, Iran tried to breach that line but could not. (At the time, the Reagan administration supported Saddam Hussein precisely because it feared the strategic consequences of an Iraq dominated by Iran’s allies.) The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq accomplished what Khomeini’s army could not.

Journalist Robert Dreyfuss wrote in March that “the United States has spent most of the past five years in a de facto alliance with Iran in support of the Shiite-led (and US-installed) regime in Baghdad….Washington’s decision to topple Saddam’s government has put in place a ruling elite that is far closer to Iran than it is to the United States.”

Rather than weakening Iranian hard-liners, as the Iraq war’s advocates insisted it would, the American invasion only strengthened them.

The consequences of Iraq for Israel’s security have also been negative. Brian Katulis writes that “in the summer of 2006, when Israel was fighting a live war with the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah, it was clear whose side most Iraqi leaders were on — and it was not Israel.”

Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki condemned Israel’s “aggression,” and that same summer, the Iraqi speaker of parliament Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani accused “Jews” of being behind the violence and murders in Iraq. Are these the type of allies that the United States wants? Is the current policy in Iraq undermining U.S. and Israeli security interests by giving Iran some breathing room to expand its influence further around the region? These are tough questions to answer, but U.S. leaders need to address this fundamental contradiction at the heart of U.S. policy in the Middle East.

Rather than consider these questions, however, McCain prefers to engage in empty sloganeering and fear-mongering as he plans the next war.

Yglesias

Going to Iraq

[Matt]

Obviously, a political gimmick is what a political gimmick is, but there’s really something very strange about the conceit that flying to Iraq and taking a guided tour courtesy of the U.S. military is the best way to learn about the country. I went to Spain for a week once, saw the central parts of Madrid and took some day trips to noteworthy towns that were easily accessible by train, but to answer even very basic question about Spain like “how wealthy is this country?” or “how many immigrants live here?” you need to look up the data not wander around. The McCain approach leads to a lot of incidents like this, “McCain’s claim that Mosul is “quiet” was disproved earlier today in grim fashion. Three suicide bombings — two in Mosul and another in a surrounding town — left 30 Iraqis dead and more than two dozen injured, according to press reports.”

Of course we can expect to hear more about this and about related things like McCain using General Petraeus in fundraising appeals, since turning MNF-Iraq into an extension of the McCain is a pretty appealing tactic. Active duty officers will try to avoid getting dragged into the political fray, but the Bush administration has repeatedly shown that it can be done easily enough, and active duty generals are hard surrogates for Obama to push back against.

Yglesias

Iraq Forever

[Matt]

Thousands joined a Sadrist rally to protest the Bush/McCain vision of a permanent U.S. military presence in Iraq, but thanks to recent operations to gain military control over Sadr City it was possible for Iraqi Security Forces to reduce the ability of anti-government protestors to peacefully assemble (progress!). Also of note, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim also issued a statement in opposition to this idea.

So the U.S. congress and Iraq’s two largest political parties are both opposed and of course naturally this means Bush will press ahead without congressional approval. And I assume that whatever Hakim or anyone else has to say about it now, as long as Bush is commander in chief of a 130,000+ thousand strong occupying army, he’ll be able to persuade Iraqi politicians to sign off on his plan.

Yglesias

McCain’s Mighty Understanding

Here’s a good one, John McCain smacks Barack Obama around for not realizing that force levels in Iraq are already down to pre-surge levels. This shows, according to McCain, how Obama’s not having taken a recent guided tour of Iraq makes him unqualified. But of course McCain’s wrong about how many troops are in Iraq! It’s almost as if being a cranky and arrogant old man isn’t the same as possessing actual understanding. Here’s the video:

I think the general idea is that if McCain asserts loudly enough that Obama doesn’t know what he’s talking about, that people will believe it.

Pentagon Pushing 9/11 Trial For 10 Days After McCain Receives GOP Nomination

Despite the fact that defense attorneys for five suspected al Qaeda members being held at Guantanamo Bay have not yet received security clearances from the Pentagon that would allow them to participate in hearings, the Bush administration is aggressively pushing ahead with the prosecutions. The lawyers also claim that so far, they have had only a few hours to meet with their clients and have not had time to sufficiently “prepare a defense” in the death penalty cases.

A newly released e-mail, dated May 27, shows a civilian member of the prosecution team suggesting a trial date of Sept. 15:

emailmor.gif

As the attorneys write in their brief asking the military judge to dismiss the charges against the detainees, “Not coincidentally, the Prosecution has now proposed a trial schedule that would force the trial of this case in mid-September, some seven weeks before the general election.” The Miami Herald notes the additional political significance of Sept. 15:

The date, in fact, is 10 days after Sen. John McCain, an architect of Military Commissions law, is expected to be officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate at the GOP national convention in St. Paul, Minn.

In October, Air Force Col. Morris Davis, formerly the lead prosecutor for terrorism trials at Guantanamo Bay, also revealed that he was pressured to pursue “sexy” cases, instead of ones that were the most solid. “There was a big concern that the election of 2008 is coming up,” Davis said. “People wanted to get the cases going.”

Yglesias

Talking Points

Henry Farrell:

Stephen Hayes was on NPR a few minutes ago complaining about how Scott McLellan wasn’t very interesting, because he was just delivering ‘left wing blogworld talking points.’ This complaint itself, of course, being itself a re-iteration of a Karl Rove talking point.

Ironic, yes. More broadly, this line of response to McClellan simply consists of repeating what’s so damning about McClellan’s new book but saying it as if this discredits him. But the point is this: Scott McClellan, longtime George W. Bush press flack, is now talking like a left-wing blogger. Right-wing flack talking like a right wing flack — not news. Left-wing blogger talking like a left-wing blogger — not news. Right-wing flack talking like a left-wing blogger — news. It’s as if a man is biting a dog in the middle of the street. Is this enough penitence to redeem McClellan for his sins? Not in my book. But it’s still an extraordinary turn of events.

We are all shrill bloggers now.

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