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Did Bush Lie?

Fred Hiatt’s preposterous editorial denouncing anyone who accuses Bush of having “lied” about Iraq has sparked renewed interest in this question. On some level, though, it’s completely absurd that this question has dominated our national debate with, in particular, the “serious” and “grownup” position being that you can never say Bush lied. After all, we’re right now in the middle of a major presidential campaign. The campaign, as campaigns tend to be, is waged by big league politicians. And I’ve heard Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and all the rest all try to mislead the voters on a whole variety of subjects over the course of the months.

Nobody finds this particularly shocking. Indeed, anyone who doesn’t recognize that there’s a lot of BS and hocus pocus out there on the campaign trail would be dismissed as a naive child.

Meanwhile, the war sales pitch was deeply dishonest. No fair-minded person could possibly deny that the overall effect of the way the administration talked about Iraq was designed to get people to believe that there was a short-term threat that Saddam Hussein would transfer a nuclear weapon to al-Qaeda for use against the United States of America. It’s equally clear that this was not supported by the evidence. But more to the point, it’s perfectly clear that the whole pitch was made in bad faith. The administration had a different, more nuanced and more medium-term set of concerns about Iraq. It believed that preventive war was the best way to deal with those concerns. And it also believed, correctly I think, that the public would not support an action of pure “anticipatory self-defense.” Thus they took bits and pieces of real intelligence plus some very flimsy stuff plus some made up stuff plus some rhetorical excess and they weaved their dishonest tapestry.

The reason a lot of people seem reluctant to admit that this is what happened is that they were in on the scam. No doubt Fred Hiatt understood perfectly well that the administration was presenting an alarmist account of the Iraq issue, calculated to induce panic and misunderstanding rather than accurate assessments of the situation. It’s just that Hiatt believed, as did most elites on the right and the hawkish segment of the left, that the sheeplike American were insufficiently attuned to the genius of aggressive warfare and that a good scare story was needed to roust them from their isolationist slumbers.

But then it turned out that the war was a disaster, and the much-feared “isolationist” impulse which said that war is a tool to be used to counter bona fide aggression rather than on speculative ventures was vindicated. So now everyone wants to pretend that it was an honest mistake, some kind of whacky mix-up like the time I took a huge gulp of vodka thinking it was water then spit it out all over the table, rather than a serious ideas-driven blunder that deserves to discredit the ideas that motivated it.

FBI General Counsel: Waterboarding Is ‘Clearly Not Permissible In The United States’

caproni.jpgDuring a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing today, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) asked FBI General Counsel Valerie Caproni if “painful stress positions, threatening detainees with dogs, forced nudity, mock execution and waterboarding” were “abusive” and “illegal.” In asking his question, Durbin cited judge advocate generals who told him that the “techniques are illegal and violate Common Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions.”

Caproni first tried to deflect the question to the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, saying that “the issue of legality or non-legality is not mine to reach.” But pushed further by Durbin, she stated unequivocally that “they are all abusive”:

DURBIN: I asked you that question. Are they abusive, illegal or violate Geneva Conventions?

CAPRONI: Oh, I’m sorry. I was running them all together, Senator. I would say they are all abusive.

Durbin then asked her if she considered the techniques torture. Again, Caproni tried to dodge the question, saying “it’s not within my pay grade” to make that determination. Eventually, following more pressure from Durbin, Caproni relented, admitting that “these techniques are clearly not permissible in the United States”:

DURBIN: Do you consider them torture?

CAPRONI: Again, torture has a legal definition, and that’s what OLC has passed on. And it’s not — it’s not within my pay grade to overrule OLC.

DURBIN: And how could it be within the pay grade of those below you to understand whether what they’re doing is torture or not?

CAPRONI: Again, from — the FBI agents’ responsibilities was, one, not to participate. These techniques are clearly not permissible in the United States. We train our agents well. They would have known that none of those techniques were they permitted to participate in.

While a report released last month by the Justice Department’s inspector general praised the FBI for “its conduct and professionalism” during interrogations, the bureau has been criticized as having “done nothing to end the abuse” perpetrated by other agencies.

Fred And Kim’s Pot O’ Gold

The very first line of Fred and Kim Kagan’s op-ed in today’s Wall Street Journal gives evidence of their strategic myopia. Declaring that “America is very close to succeeding in Iraq,” the Kagans go on to present an extremely optimistic interpretation of recent events in Iraq, all to the purpose, of course, of arguing for a continued American presence there.

- Hailing the Iraqi army’s successes in Basra and Sadr City, the Kagan’s gloss over Iran’s central role in facilitating those victories. In both instances, Iran brokered cease-fires between Maliki’s forces and the Mahdi Army, enabling the former to take control of neighborhoods and the latter to retain their weapons and melt away.

- Though the Kagans have consistently tried to present the intra-Shia conflict as between “the sovereign Iraqi government and Iran-backed militias,” as Brian Katulis and I have pointed out, this misrepresents both Iran’s true role as the main backer of Maliki’s coalition, as well as the extent to which Maliki’s anti-Sadrist offensive was intended to weaken the Sadrists in advance of provincial elections.

The Kagans’ treatment of political progress is similarly blithe:

- They note that “the Iraqi government passed all but one of the “benchmark” laws…and was integrating grass-roots reconciliation with central political progress.” The former statement completely ignores the lack of implementation of any of the benchmark laws, a result of their passage being achieved by being worded so vaguely so as to make implementation nearly impossible. The latter claim is simply an unsupported assertion.

- Their argument also takes us down into the weeds of small pieces of legislation that may never be fully implemented and ignores a bigger problem that no one is talking about – the deadlock in the constitutional reform process that was supposed to have been completed nearly two years ago. Years later, and Iraq’s factions have not moved forward on the core questions related to power-sharing –- something the Kagans leave out.

As usual, the Kagans carve out a yawning chasm of wiggle room for their claims, writing that Iraq’s “tremendous gains remain fragile and could be lost to skillful enemy action, or errors in Baghdad or Washington.” If and when the “tremendous gains” turn out to be the entrenchment of Iraq’s sectarian factions, and the Kagans’ analysis is revealed as smoke, rest assured that others will get the blame. But being a neocon means never having to say you’re sorry. Read more

Yglesias

Iraqi Politics

They’re having an election over there, too. And Dr. Irak and Ilan Goldenberg see things breaking down into two blocs — a nationalist bloc of Sadrists and Sunnis who favor nationalism and a strong central state, and a competing bloc of Kurds, ISCI, and Dawa who favor decentralization and collaboration with the U.S. and Iran.

It’s an interesting turn of events. Interesting, in particular, because it’s kind of paradoxical for ISCI and Dawa, in particular, to be both so close to the United States and so close to Iran. And even more interesting because it seems odd for the in-power coalition to be in favor of decentralization while the out-of-power coalition is skeptical of it. And last it’s interesting because in an abstract sense you’d think the Sunnis, as a minority, would generally line up with the Kurds and be in favor of decentralization. To some extent I think what you’re seeing here is that the presence of a huge American occupying army as a political issue in Iraq is distorting the lens through which some parties see their interests.

But of course lurking behind all this is the question of what the United States wants to do. The Bush administration has consistently used its considerable ability to influence Iraqi politics in order to try to bring to power leaders it regards as friendly to the American troop presence. An Obama administration looking for a graceful way to exit would have different incentives.

Yglesias

No Helicopters

It seems the World Food Program’s Humanitarian Air Service needs to cut relief activities in Sudan thanks to countries being unwilling to pony up the $77 million that’s needed.

I expect, naturally, that every conservative and liberal hawk writer who’s penned dozens of articles bemoaning the fact that the UN has stopped unilateral militarism from rescuing Darfur will also speak out against this. After all, it’s not like this is a group of people who just likes macho posturing and is only interested in helping other people when the method of helping them is killing someone. Not like that at all. Doubtless all the folks who editorialized in favor of an invasion of Burma just haven’t spoken out about this helicopter problem yet because they’re too busy. Or maybe they have a principled objection to cost-effective, logistically feasible methods of humanitarianism.

Yglesias

Deal Off

Looks like the permanent occupation plan may not go through as intended:

Faced with stiff Iraqi opposition, it is “very possible” the U.S. may have to extend an existing U.N. mandate, said a senior administration official close to the talks. That would mean major decisions about how U.S. forces operate in Iraq could be left to the next president, including how much authority the U.S. must give Iraqis over military operations and how quickly the handover takes place.

Leaving decisions about how U.S. forces operate in Iraq up to the next president sounds like an awfully good idea to me. It’ll let us, among other things, debate this issue in our presidential election. My understanding is that Barack Obama, like most Americans, and like most Iraqis, wants American troops to come home pretty soon. John McCain, by contrast, like George W. Bush, wants them to stay for 100 or 10,000 or whatever years irrespective of the cost and irrespective of Iraqi opinion. It seems like a disagreement worth airing.

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