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FISA Followup

Two more points on FISA. One, it’s not correct to say that companies need to can “get off scot-free if they can produce evidence that the Bush administration promised them (cross my heart, hope to die, stick a needle in my eye) that their illegal request was, in fact, legal. ” In fact, all they need is for the Attorney-General to state that this happened. That’s less than nothing.

Second, one shouldn’t say that “the Democrats” caved on this. Enough Democrats did cave for it to pass, but others didn’t cave. Distinctions matter.

Better Late Than Never: Addressing Sexual Violence As A Security Threat

Our guest blogger is David Sullivan, a Research Associate with the ENOUGH Project.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is at the United Nations Security Council today to discuss a real weapon of mass destruction, one that is employed on a daily basis around the world: the use of rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war.

In conflicts from East Timor to Liberia, armed forces have deliberately and systematically used rape as a means of terrorizing enemy communities and maintaining control over territory and populations. The worst epidemic of sexual violence is in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where rebel movements, militias, and the Congolese army have perpetrated horrific bouts of mass rape, sexual torture, and other violence against untold thousands of women and girls. Because victims are stigmatized and shamed, the full extent of this crisis may never be known.

The Security Council resolution (pdf) that the U.S. is expected to sponsor as part of today’s meeting may finally help to elevate the political profile of this horrifying issue. It will increase information gathering on the scope of the problem, strengthen peacekeeping mission’s mandates to respond, and demand accountability for perpetrators. A similar measure related to the use of child soldiers has proven somewhat successful in requiring the UN’s elaborate bureaucracy to focus on protecting children in armed conflict.

This issue needs all the attention it can get. Just a few weeks ago the International Criminal Court, the best means of ending impunity for sexual terrorism, had to drop all charges related to sexual violence in eastern Congo. This was due to difficulty protecting potential witnesses from retribution.

Ending this crime against humanity, in Congo and beyond, will require linking efforts to protect women and girls with broader peace processes and conflict prevention. The U.S. played a key role in recent diplomatic breakthroughs, largely thanks to Tim Shortley, a State Department Senior Advisor who focused entirely on Congo and the related issue of the Lord’s Resistance Army in northern Uganda. Regrettably, his portfolio has been broadened to include Sudan, risking the sustained high-level attention that these conflicts need. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazier needs to fill his shoes quickly with a diplomat of similar stature to consolidate recent gains and connect lofty Security Council rhetoric with meaningful protection for Congolese women.

McCain’s One Note Campaign

fred-thompson4.jpgToday, Team McCain continued to try to make an issue out of Barack Obama’s wild suggestion that America can fight terrorism without discarding the U.S. Constitution. It’s now exceedingly clear that, whatever else candidate McCain has going on, every day is a national security day.

Exhibiting the sort of message discipline for which McCain’s campaign is becoming known, today’s conference call attacking Obama’s anti-terrorism policy began with a statement attacking Obama’s withdrawal from public financing. Then Randy Scheunemann turned it over to D.A. Arthur Branch former Senator Fred Thompson, who first attacked the Supreme Court’s decision in Boumediene — claiming that the Court had created a “new right,” when in fact habeas corpus is one of the oldest rights there is — and then suggested that Obama had “extrapolated” his entire anti-terrorism policy from the prosecution of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing conspirators.

The truth, of course, is that the ones who have extrapolated a position here are Team McCain and their surrogates. On Tuesday, Team McCain held a conference call with, among others, former CIA director and noted conspiracy theorist James Woolsey. Yesterday, batting for McCain was Rudy Giuliani, of whom John McCain previously said “I know of nothing in his background that indicates that he has any [national security] experience.” And then today we had Fred Thompson, who said last fall that McCain was “clearly moving away from what I consider to be the sound constitutional, traditional principles that the Reagan coalition was founded upon,” slamming Obama’s adherence to constitutional principles. In the space of three conference calls over three days, Team McCain has proffered these surrogates to construct an elaborate alternate reality version of Obama’s policy, I suppose because it’s easier for them to argue with.

And it’s easy to understand why: Like George W. Bush, John McCain thinks that the conflict with Islamic extremism is best understood as a war, a war can be won by the steady and relentless application of military force. Like George W. Bush, McCain continues to insist that an appropriate response to the 9/11 attacks was to redirect America’s attention and resources away from those responsible for the 9/11 attacks in order to invade and occupy a country that had no connection to the 9/11 attacks. And like George W. Bush, McCain believes that the effective prosecution of this war requires freeing the executive branch from such pointless legal mumbo jumbo as the Magna Carta. The fact that each of these policies have, in the years since 9/11, produced disastrous results for America’s security, its interests, and its reputation is what’s known in political lingo as a “problem” for the candidate.

Yglesias

How About a Democrat?

The problem with retaining Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense is the same as the problem with the idea of appointing Chuck Hagel or when Bill Clinton about William Cohen — these guys are Republicans. It’s desperately important for the Democratic Party’s leaders to avoid re-enforcing the idea that Democrats can’t run national security. If you find a moderate Republican with sound views on key environmental issues and make him or her head of the EPA, that says “climate change is an important issue and there’s bipartisan support for taking action.” If you put a Republican in charge of the Pentagon it says “Obama likes diplomacy, but even he knows that when the going gets tough you need to call in the GOP.”

Meanwhile, in the annals of cabinet speculation, why not wonder which Bush administration secretaries John McCain might keep on? Will he keep Bob Gates at Defense? Condi at State? Paulson at Treasury? And why or why not? Answering those questions would give us a better sense of where Obama stands vis-a-vis the status quo.

Bush And McCain Try To Steal Credit For Webb’s GI Bill That They Consistently Worked To Defeat

bushmccain.jpg Yesterday, House leaders in both parties struck a deal on a war supplemental bill that includes expanded college benefits for veterans. The GI Bill is Sen. Jim Webb’s (D-VA) version, as well as a provision allowing troops to transfer the benefits to family members. President Bush has promised to sign the legislation.

Now, however, Bush and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) — the two most vocal opponents of Webb’s bill — are trying to take credit for it. They are claiming that they always supported the generous benefits — their main concern was just ensuring the benefits’ transferability:

McCain: That has always been my primary concern with respect to the Webb bill. … With the addition of the transferability provisions sought by Senators Graham, Burr, myself and others to give service members the right to transfer earned G.I. Bill benefits to spouses and children, we will have achieved in offering vastly improved educational benefit.

Bush: Throughout the past five months, President Bush and members of his Administration have worked hard to ensure that an expansion of GI benefits includes transferability. … The President is pleased that Congress answered his call.

Webb said that he had been considering changing his bill to include a transferability option. But instead of working with him, McCain and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) went ahead and introduced an opposing bill. While it did have transferability, it also had less generous educational benefits.

This was never the real reason Bush and McCain opposed the legislation. Their constant complaint was that Webb’s version was too generous and would lead to a drop in military retention:

McCain: “I want to make sure that we have incentives for people to remain in the military as well as for people to join the military.”

Bush administration: “The last thing we want to do is provide a benefit — or the last thing we want to do is create a situation in which we are losing our men and women who we have worked so hard to train.”

As the CBO concluded, these claims about retention were inaccurate. The Pentagon also argued that it was too generous to confer benefits on troops after “only” two years of service, and legislation offered by McCain and his Senate allies would have reserved the most generous benefits for those who have served at least 12 years, excluding most servicemembers.

Yglesias

Today in Constitution-Shredding

The long, drawn-out search for a fig leaf behind which the House Democrats can capitulate on FISA appears to have arrived as Democrats back a “compromise” by which telecom firms that illegally assisted the Bush administration’s surveillance efforts can be sued with the proviso that they get off scot-free if they can produce evidence that the Bush administration promised them (cross my heart, hope to die, stick a needle in my eye) that their illegal request was, in fact, legal. Since everyone already knows this happened, the companies all get off scot-free.

See Tim Lee, Glenn Greenwald, and Brian Beutler for more.

Who knows where this precedent of retroactively immunizing illegal conduct will lead us.

Bolton Fearmongers: ‘Best Outcome’ Of Obama Presidency Is ‘More Embassy Bombings, WTC Attacks’

Yesterday, Fox News’s John Gibson hosted former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton on his radio show. They discussed Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-IL) foreign policy. Bolton charged that “the best outcome” of an Obama presidency would be “a replay of the Clinton administration,” meaning “more embassy bombings” and “more World Trade Center attacks”:

GIBSON: The Obama team is going back to some of the old complaints about the war and the war on terror…that the left has been articulating for a long time now, and not really coming up with anything new.

BOLTON: Yeah I think honestly that’s an optimistic view of it, that it will simply be a replay of the Clinton administration. It will simply have more embassy bombings, more bombings of our warships like the Cole, more World Trade Center attacks. That would be the best outcome from that perspective.

Listen to it:

Of course, Bolton does not mention that the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon occurred during the Bush administration, while Bolton was serving in the Department of State.

Bolton also reminded Gibson that the entire world — “from responsible democratic governments to the terrorists themselves” — is following our election closely, adding, “Everything that Obama is saying today is registering very intensely among those who wish us no good.”

Earlier this election season, Bolton declared that “the mullahs in Tehran” want a Democrat to win the presidency in 2008. What’s more, Bolton’s comments hardly exist in isolation — nor are they even the most egregious examples of right-wing fearmongering. Here are a few more examples:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ): All I can tell you Jennifer [Rubin] is that I think it’s very clear who Hamas wants to be the next president of the United States. … If Senator Obama is favored by Hamas I think people can make judgments accordingly.”

Rep. Steve King (R-IA): “The radical Islamists, the al-Qaida … would be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on Sept. 11 because they would declare victory in this war on terror” if Obama won the presidency.

Max Boot: “[T]he implication is that Iran’s top terrorist is hoping that Americans will elect Barack Obama this fall.”

Bolton’s scare tactics represent a tried-and-true election strategy for the right wing.

Yglesias

By Request: Afghanistan

Strasmangelo Jones asks:

Here’s a request. What, exactly, is the US plan for Afghanistan? What would “success” in Afghanistan even look like, and how would America get there?

This is, indeed, the question we need to be asking. The fact that the original mission in Afghanistan, to whip the Taliban and uproot al-Qaeda, didn’t quite work and then we went and invaded Iraq and stopped paying attention for several years has left us with a mission in Afghanistan that seems very unclear. When you hear things like our commander in Afghanistan saying we need 400,000 troops you begin to think that the mission he has in mind isn’t the appropriate one. Whatever it is you need 400,000 troops to do is something we’re going to have to get by without doing, since we’re not sending 400,000 troops to Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, it seems to me that the “Anbar Awakening” model in which we took some guys who’d been fighting us, and gave them money to kill al-Qaeda irreconciliables instead, would have a lot of promise in Afghanistan. I think the big problem with the past two years worth of our policy in Iraq hasn’t been that it “doesn’t work” but that we don’t have any reasonable policy objectives and are getting bogged down in a senseless quest for bases, “influence,” and a vague sense of victory. Afghanistan seems like a more promising venue for clearer, more limited objectives — no southern factions playing host to al-Qaeda and the de jure government strong enough to remain the de facto government in the Kabul area.

Stabilizing the whole country would be great, and I’d be happy to send more troops to Afghanistan to do so (especially because I think doing so would bring forth increased involvement from our international partners) since as best I can tell most segments of the Afghan population don’t have a real problem with foreign troops being there. But if it’s really true that we would need to send 400,000 soldiers over there to accomplish a nationwide stabilization mission then it makes sense to re-redefine our objectives in a more limited way.

But consider that all somewhat provisional, as I’m not really up to speed on the situation and promise to look into it.

Yglesias

Two Cheers for Theory

Ross had an interesting post several days ago that I’ve been meaning to respond to, centered around the limited utility of theory in guiding action on foreign policy:

That being said, I do think that the ease with which many liberal hawks who would have been cool to the idea of invading Iraq circa 1999 went over to the interventionist position after 2001 suggests a deeper problem with Matt’s attempt – or any attempt – to build systematic theories for international engagement: Namely, that unless you’re a very stringent non-interventionist (or a pacifist), no matter what theory of foreign policy you choose, you’ll always be able to find justification within the confines of that theory whenever a particular intervention seems like a good idea. In this vein, I sometimes think too much of the debate over the Iraq War has been bogged down by arguments over theory – by Christians arguing over whether just war tradition accommodates the invasion; by liberals arguing (sometimes with themselves) over whether it fits within the Truman paradigm, by everybody arguing about neoconservatism’s place in American political history – when to my mind the chief lessons of the war have to do with issues of prudence and practicality, and more specifically with the question of when the costs of war, in lives and treasure, are worth the risk involved and the gains that might be won.

There’s definitely something to that. No theory worth having is going to have totally unambiguous applications to specific cases, and besides which there’s no substitute for factual information and good judgment. That said, just saying we’re going to take a prudent, empirical approach to questions turns out to not have any real content. In part, this is for formal reasons like “the interdependence of fact and theory” where people’s empirical assessments of situations are influenced by their theoretical precommitments. In part the issue is that foreign crises play out in real time, and decisions need to be made with imperfect information and typically by people who aren’t specialists in the region of the world at hand. On top of all that, the questions of costs and benefits is going to implicate ideas about goals and “grand strategy.” These are topics that can’t help but be debated with some reference to theory. Your approach to a lot of issues can be strongly affected by whether or not you think US-Chinese conflict is inevitable, and if not whether you think an “appeasement invites aggression” frame or a “if we’re reasonable, they’ll be reasonable too” frame is the most important way of thinking about the risks of conflict.

In short, we can’t get by without theory, so we have good reason to debate theory. And eve if particular cases can’t “prove” a given theory wrong or right, it’s natural to cite cases in making arguments about theory.

Ultimately, I think Ross’s insight is most persuasive in batting down certain kinds of objections to certain theoretical positions. I’ve sometimes heard the objection raised that since my preferred theoretical position can’t provide an unambiguous answer to all real and possible cases, it must be a flawed theory. Or that since past presidents have sometimes deviated from internationalist course (Mossadegh, Vietnam, the Cuba Embargo), it can’t be the case that liberal internationalism has generally been the guiding principle of our policy. That kind of thing is just the wrong way to think about what theoretical considerations are supposed to do — they’re supposed to provide some guidance as to relevant considerations and plausible courses of action, not completely determine policy.

Yglesias

Alternatives to Law Enforcement

A nice point from David Shorr:

So Michael, I don’t disagree with a word of your review of the relative merits of law enforcement versus military action in combatting terrorism. Except I no longer believe the Right is really making an argument for the military as a counterterror tool. Think about it, how often do we hear proposals from political leaders for how our military can and will win the war on terror for us.

Right. We’ve moved past a debate about “law and enforcement and intelligence” versus “military action” to a debate where the alternative to law enforcement is just lawlessness — people get arrested and thrown in prison, just like with law enforcement, but they have no recourse and no opportunity to prove they don’t belong there. But a system based on arbitrary indefinite detention, warrantless surveillance, and torture isn’t a system of war it’s just a system of indiscriminate criminality and abuse of power.

McCain Doesn’t Understand McCain’s Position on Guantanamo

mccainshow.jpgOur guest blogger is Ken Gude, Associate Director of the International Rights and Responsibility Program at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

Last week’s Supreme Court ruling affirming the Guantanamo detainees’ constitutional right to habeas corpus further narrowed the legal distinction between holding them in Cuba and in the United States. The Bush administration picked Guantanamo precisely because it believed the American military base on the eastern tip of Cuba was beyond the reach of any court. With that notion rightly put to rest, supporters of closing Guantanamo like John McCain should be encouraged, as there is now much less of an argument against moving some of the detainees to the military prison at Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas, as he proposes.

That’s why I find his reaction to the Boumediene decision so odd. McCain unleashed a full broadside at the court the day after the ruling, calling it “one of the worst decisions in the history of this country… Our first obligation is the safety and security of this nation, and the men and women who defend it. This decision will harm our ability to do that.”

At issue in Boumediene is whether habeas rights extended to Guantanamo. There has never been any doubt that any individual in the United States possesses habeas rights. McCain is on the record saying, as president, he “would immediately close Guantanamo Bay, [and] move all the prisoners to Fort Leavenworth.” That action would have exactly the same effect as the Court’s decision in Boumediene.

McCain goes on to claim that his plan to close Guantanamo the Supreme Court’s ruling is “going to have the courts flooded with so-called, quote, Habeas Corpus suits against the government, whether it be about the diet, whether it be about the reading material.” This would be silly if it wasn’t so tragic. Garden variety habeas petitions from inmates in American prisons may more often deal with diet than detention, but the detainees at Guantanamo are not asking for better food, many believe that they are wrongly imprisoned and are contesting the lawfulness of their confinement. Read more

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Yglesias

“Force and Legitimacy”

steinberg.jpg

I said yesterday that I thought James Steinberg was the most interesting name on the Obama National Security Working Group list. The other folks are either people who’ve been in the Obama circle for a while, or else they’re elder statesmen types rather than potential future appointees. Steinberg, however, was Deputy National Security Advisor from 1996-2000 and is thus exactly the sort of person who could get a senior-level job in an Obama administration.

As such, I was interested to read his essay “Force and Legitimacy in the Post 9/11 Era: What Principles Should Guide the United States?” It’s a pretty disappointing piece of work. He observes that the UN Charter authorizes the use of force for the purpose of self-defense, for defense of others, or in other circumstances when authorized by the UN Security Council. He then observes that there are a variety of circumstances under which people sometimes think we should use non-defensive force even without Security Council authorizations. And he observes that using force in all of these circumstances is problematic in many ways. And that it’s more problematic the more unilateral it is. And then he kind of just concludes that it all depends. The essay is full of thumbsuckers like this:

Thus, the bottom line suggests that preventive force must be part of the policy mix in dealing with the acquisition of dangerous capabilities, especially WMD, but the wisdom of its use is highly fact-dependent and requires a very careful balancing of the real benefits to be achieved against likely costs.

And:

Although there are substantial costs and risks to acting preventively, the calculation may still be favorable in light of the alternatives.

None of this contradicts the bold thinking and new approaches some of us have been excited about, but it’s really the reverse of bold thinking and new approaches. Now arguably it’s a good idea for an incoming president to leaven some of his big new ideas with a certain amount of mealy-mouthed timidity and Steinberg does have sound views on the key substantive issues but there is a certain “change you can believe in” quality missing here. Part of the issue, as Chris Hayes says, is that you need to staff a national campaign and an administration with people who know what they’re doing, and that necessarily entails a certain status quo bias that’s bound to disappoint the true believers.

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