ThinkProgress Logo

Security

Yglesias

Through a Glass, Darkly

According to this eye-opening Washington Post op-ed, in Vladimir Putin’s Russia it’s possible for government officials and well-connected individuals to commit crimes with impunity. I’m glad I don’t live in a country like that!

Here if the government were to ask telecom firms to illegally cooperate with an illegal surveillance operation, we’d ensure the rule of law continues to operate by changing the law so that complying with such requests will be legal in the future and also bestowing retroactive immunity on the cooperating firms. And if the Vice President’s top aide were convicted of a crime, the president would need to step in and commute his sentence. It’s these kind of procedures that keep our country safe and free!

Bolton: Israel Will Attack Iran After U.S. Election But Before Inauguration, Arab States Will Be ‘Delighted’

This morning on Fox News, former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton continued his drumbeat for war against Iran. Adopting Bill Kristol’s argument, Bolton suggested that an attack on Iran depends on who Americans elect as the next President:

I think if they [Israel] are to do anything, the most likely period is after our elections and before the inauguration of the next President. I don’t think they will do anything before our election because they don’t want to affect it. And they’d have to make a judgment whether to go during the remainder of President Bush’s term in office or wait for his successor.

Bolton gamed out the fallout from an attack on Iran. He claimed that Iran’s options to retaliate after being attacked are actually “less broad than people think.” He suggested that Iran would not want to escalate a conflict because 1) it still needs to export oil, 2) it would worry about “an even greater response” from Israel, 3) and it would worry about the U.S.’s response.

Bolton then concluded that Arab states would be excited if the U.S. or Israel attacked Iran:

I don’t think you’d hear the Arab states say this publicly, but they would be delighted if the United States or Israel destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons capability.

Watch it:

Bolton has said he is backing John McCain because he would handle the Iranian nuclear program in a “stronger” way than the Bush administration.

Yglesias

Conditional Engagement

Two interesting perspectives on Iraq in Foreign Affairs one in which Colin Kahl outlines a strategy of “conditional engagement” in Iraq and one in which William Odom makes the case for a speedier withdrawal. I’ve grown sympathetic to what Kahl is trying to get at here as the post-”Awakening” reduction in violence has proven more durable than I would have thought. But one shortcoming of Kahl’s article is that it doesn’t grapple with Odom’s point that “The key to thinking clearly about it is to give regional stability higher priority than some fantasy victory in Iraq.”

Odom then goes on to argue that “The first step toward restoring that stability is the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq.” That may be right or it may be wrong, but either way any strategy that would have us “conditionally” engaged in iraq needs to take a broader, more regional view of the conditions we’re talking about. The next administration desperately needs to undertake a “diplomatic surge” in the region, and Barack Obama seems inclined to do so. But one can’t really know in advance what the outcome of efforts at a diplomatic breakthrough with Syria and/or Iran would be. We can say that one of the primary goals of our engagement with both regional players and Iraqi politicians should be to lead to a U.S. departure (rather than the Bush/McCain goal of an indefinite presence) but the schedule needs to be actually negotiated with Iraqis and others.

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up