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‘Falling Skies,’ Iraq, And Afghanistan: What’s It Take To Harass An Invader Out Of A Country?

Noah Wyle plays an academic forced to implement his theories in TNT's 'Falling Skies.'

I don’t think Falling Skies is the show to end all shows, but it does satisfy a craving I’ve had for a look at alien invasions that don’t just consist of a traumatic invasion that’s easily repulsed once humans figure out the aliens’ fatal weakness. Instead, it dispenses with the history of the invasion in a monologue by a group of children in the first minute and a half of the pilot: “I was in school when the ships came. They were really big. And they said we weren’t going to attack them with a nuclear bomb because they might want to be friends. But they didn’t want to be friends. Not at all…They blew up army bases, ships, the Navy, submarines, and all the soldiers are gone…Now the moms and dads have to fight…They kill parents. And they put harnesses on kids.” And then the show moves swiftly and efficiently into the question of what happens to individual humans and human society when it’s on the brink of extinction.

There are fairly obvious compromises. A criminal can be a useful addition to society if he knows how to cook, bringing some solace to everyday life — and if he’s developed a better theory of fighting the invaders. We’ll tolerate deviant behavior by doctors if they lead to medical innovation that can be an effective response to new threats. Shreds of normality, like a skateboard, can unify entire communities. Thank God America manufactured so much canned food.

But one of the things that’s most interesting to me so far is the debate over whether academic knowledge and theory or military expertise matter more in the current environment. That conflict’s embodied by Tom Mason (Noah Wyle, finally finding a decent outlet for his penchant for playing bookish action heroes), a military history professor, and Captain Weaver (Will Patton), an actual veteran of both the armed forces and the military reserves. Mason’s not a fantastic commander: he gets his squad captured, he brings back an alien prisoner of war without a sense of whether it’ll be feasible or wise to hold one, and it’s not necessarily clear that his theories about whether the Skitters (as the invaders are known) can be harassed off Earth the same way the British were harassed out of the colonies during the Revolutionary War carry water. But Mason does understand that in order to win, the human survivors need more than a military campaign, telling one of his fellow survivors, “I think civilians are a liability and a hindrance. I also think they’re the best motivation we have to fight.” When he has to choose what books he wants to take with him, he picks A Tale of Two Cities.
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Senate Report: Military Budget Represents Highest Percentage Increase In Spending Since 2001

Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) took to the Senate floor today and denigrated what he sees as a government addiction to spending, calling Obama “the addict-in-chief.” But what DeMint and other GOP lawmakers continue to ignore in their lambasts of over-spending is that the U.S. budget shortfall owes to the Bush-era tax cuts, the economic downturn, and war and defense spending rather than to any sort of “addiction” to discretionary spending.

In fact, the Senate Appropriations Committee has recently released data demonstrating that the Obama administration is spending the same amount per person each year in domestic discretionary spending, that is on health care, education, and other social services, as the Bush administration spent during its first year in 2001:

“Although non-defense discretionary spending in nominal dollars has increased, when taking inflation and population growth into account the amount contained in the [2011 budget] represents no increase over what we spent in 2001, a year in which we generated a surplus of $128 billion,” said chairman Daniel Inouye (D-HI) in a prepared statement. “So the right question to ask is: Are we really spending too much on non-defense programs? The answer is clearly no.”

The amounts of federal funds dedicated to the defense budget and to entitlement programs have grown over the past decade while tax revenues have fallen sharply. But as TPM notes, military spending is special case because, unlike with entitlement programs, there is no population growth to consider:

The idea here is that since this money is largely devoted to education, health care, and other services that benefit broad swaths of the population, the amount of it should grow roughly with population size. This stands in contrast to defense spending, which is why the committee did not correct defense spending for population growth.

And TPM also charts the numbers:

The Department of Defense’s baseline budget has nearly doubled in the past ten years and “is now higher in real terms than what we spent on average during the Cold War when we were faced with an existential threat from another superpower.” Two wars, a budget bill loaded with defense earmarks, and contractor price-gouging has all added to the total costs. The United States now spends more money on defense than it has since its full-on engagement during World War II.

If GOP lawmakers are serious about brokering a deal to lower the deficit as a part of the debt-ceiling controversy, they will have to open the door to cuts to the Department of Defense’s budget. With the July 22 deadline approaching fast, the GOP doesn’t have much time to change its tune.

Sarah Bufkin

Jeffrey Goldberg And Dan Meridor Push Back Against Critics Of Military Option On Iran

Jeffrey Goldberg and Dan Meridor

It’s been nearly two months since former Mossad Chief Meir Dagan declared an Israeli strike on Iran as “the stupidest idea I’ve ever heard,” but backlash against both the content of his remarks and his decision to speak publicly continues to reverberate in both Israel and the U.S. as journalist Jeffrey Goldberg and Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor launched new attacks on the former intelligence chief.

Jeffrey Goldberg, writing for Bloomberg on July 4, describes Dagan as a “bungling strategist” and, through some impressive logical jujitsu, concludes:

If Israel does attack the Iranian nuclear program, it will in part be because Dagan undermined his country’s deterrent credibility.

While Israel’s deterrent credibility is a matter for debate — though deterrence theory suggests that Israel’s presumed second strike nuclear capability should be enough to deter any Iranian nuclear attack on Israel — Dagan’s remarks should undermine Goldberg’s previous reporting on Israel and Iran. Last year, Goldberg, after speaking with 40 current and past Israeli decision makers, observed, “there is a better than 50-percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” Neither his characterization of a consensus nor his prediction of a military strike have turned out to be accurate.

But Goldberg isn’t the only one hitting back at Dagan. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor has been making the rounds discussing the Iranian threat and calling for tougher sanctions. ThinkProgress asked Meridor about Dagan’s comments in an Israel Policy Forum conference call today. He responded:

I know Dagan well. I dont’ think he’s against Israeli policy and [he] has a lot we need to thank him for. Whether he should have spoken out after leaving office is a good question of taste. I don’t want to get into that.

And in a France 24 interview from last week, Meridor hinted at the possibility of a military strike while implicity criticizing those who have spoken out against the “military option.”

He said:

I don’t think that in good families one speaks of military action. [It's] something that we don’t speak of. But I think that Americans usually say that “all options are on the table.” Leave it at that.

Watch his remarks here:

Goldberg and Meridor are clearly invested in maintaining the possibility of an Israeli military strike against Iran. But while they prefer to portray Dagan as the only outlier within Israel’s decision making elite, the reality is that a majority of living ex-Mossad chiefs are taking sides against the Netanyahu government’s position on Iran and/or the government’s intransigence on settlements and land swaps required for a two state solution. Goldberg and Meridor continue to cling to their hawkish positions even while an Israeli “consensus” favoring Netanyahu’s hawkish policies seems increasingly in doubt.

 

Report: White House Is Offering To Keep Up To 10,000 Troops In Iraq Past 2011

For the past few months, various Obama administration officials have said publicly that the United States would be willing to keep an unspecified number of U.S. troops in Iraq after the Dec. 31, 2011 withdrawal date if the Iraqis asked. Just last weekend, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq again extended the offer, one that some analysts credit with increased attacks on American soldiers there.

However, the White House has been silent. The AP reports today however that “senior Obama administration and U.S. military officials” say the “the White House is offering to keep up to 10,000 troops in Iraq next year”:

Already, though, the White House has worked out options to keep between 8,500 and 10,000 active-duty troops to continue training Iraqi security forces during 2012, according to senior Obama administration and U.S. military officials in interviews with The Associated Press. The figures also were noted by foreign diplomats in Baghdad briefed on the issue.

The AP added that “White House national security spokesman Tommy Vietor said there currently are ‘no plans’ to keep U.S. troops in Iraq” past 2011. But Vietor added that an Iraqi request “would be given serious consideration.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) scoffed at the idea of keeping more troops in Iraq past the withdrawal deadline.

“As Iraq becomes increasingly capable, it is time for our own troops to return home by the end of the year and for these precious resources to be directed elsewhere,” Reid, Democrat of Nevada, said in the statement. “There is no question that the United States must continue to provide support for the Iraqis as they progress, but now is the time for our military mission to come to a close.”

Last June marked the deadliest month for U.S. forces in Iraq since 2008, and the rate of U.S. troops in killed there is at 2003 and 2004 levels.

Update

Ashwin Madia at Vet Voice praised Reid’s statement and added:

What has become abundantly clear is that as long as Americans are in Iraq, they will be a target. Should we stay in Iraq past our deadline, there is no reason to believe that violent attacks won’t further increase, leading to more American deaths. The United States will then be forced to either endure the attacks or send in more troops to protect our forces. There is simply no outcome from staying past the SOFA deadline that is acceptable or desirable.

Update

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said this afternoon that “if the iraqi government asks us to maintain some level of troops beyond that year deadline, we would consider it. That doesn’t necessarily mean we would do it. We would just consider it.”

Romney’s Jumbled History On Libya War: ‘I Hope’ Obama Warned Qaddafi Before Launching Air Strikes

During a town hall meeting in New Hampshire this morning, GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney launched into a rambling and confusing attack on President Obama over his handling of U.S. involvement in U.N.-authorized NATO’s air campaign in Libya. In one of his first points, Romney said he hoped the president warned Qaddafi before NATO began enforcing the no-fly zone there last March:

ROMNEY: The President had three choices in Libya. The first choice, I hope he took, I don’t know that this has come out but … Before we carried out any kinetic military activity I hope we contacted Qaddafi and said, “Mr. Qaddafi, if you attack your people, if you put any aircraft in the air and you attack your own people, we’ll come shoot them down, we’ll take out your aircraft defense sites and you’ll see the full weight of the United Sates of America at your doorstep and over your country. We’ll put in place a no fly zone.”

Watch it:

This is exactly what Obama did in a speech just after the U.N. authorized military action against Qaddafi:

Yesterday, in response to a call for action by the Libyan people and the Arab League, the U.N. Security Council passed a strong resolution that demands an end to the violence against citizens. It authorizes the use of force with an explicit commitment to pursue all necessary measures to stop the killing, to include the enforcement of a no-fly zone over Libya. [...]

Now, once more, Moammar Qaddafi has a choice. The resolution that passed lays out very clear conditions that must be met. The United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Arab states agree that a cease-fire must be implemented immediately. That means all attacks against civilians must stop. Qaddafi must stop his troops from advancing on Benghazi, pull them back from Ajdabiya, Misrata, and Zawiya, and establish water, electricity and gas supplies to all areas. Humanitarian assistance must be allowed to reach the people of Libya.

It’s unlikely President Obama “contacted” Qaddafi personally to make this warning. This is why the United States, and every country around the world, has diplomats. But assuming that Qaddifi has access to television and/or the internet, it’s probably fair to say that he got the president’s warning. Perhaps Romney just wasn’t paying attention at the time.

Yglesias

No, We Don’t Need Israel As Much As Israel Needs Us

Once upon a time, Israel presented itself in the American political discourse with some plausibility as a kind of charity case. Under modern circumstances, that makes no sense. Israel is a high-income country with the strongest military in its region and an arsenal of nuclear weapons that secure it from conventional attack. Israel is a democracy with a claim on our sympathies, but countries from Brazil to Mexico to India to South Africa all suggest themselves as democracies with much more in the way of objective material needs. But no political movement lives on raw congressional power alone, so the advocates for heavy U.S. subsidization of Israel are increasingly turning to a preposterous rhetoric in which said subsidization is actually beneficial to American citizens rather than an act of charity. Hence Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ridiculous though much-applauded claim that “America has no better friend than Israel.”

Today in the Wall Street Journal, George Gilder of the Discovery Institute takes a break from peddling creationism to argue, “We need Israel as much as it needs us.” The argument here is that Israel makes some high-tech goods:

Israelis supply Intel with many of its advanced microprocessors, from the Pentium and Sandbridge, to the Atom and Centrino. Israeli companies endow Cisco with new core router designs and real-time programmable network processors for its next-generation systems. They supply Apple with robust miniaturized solid state memory systems for its iPhones, iPods and iPads, and Microsoft with critical user interface designs for the OS7 product line and the Kinect gaming motion-sensor interface, the fastest rising consumer electronic product in history.

It’s quite true that Israel’s high-tech cluster is an impressive achievement, and it plays an important role in a globally integrated economy. But in an era of global supply chains, American technology firms obtain components from all kinds of places — China, Taiwan, Korea, etc. — and nobody’s suggesting that the United States ought to subsidize any of those other countries at anything remotely approaching the Israeli rate. More to the point, this form of argument seems to miss the entire point of commerce and gains from trade. The consumer surplus from Israeli technology products is available to customers in Canada and New Zealand and Peru and Botswana just as much as it is to Americans. We’re not deriving any special benefit from Israel-based firms in light of our relationship with Israel.

Indeed, I’d say serious examination of Israel’s commercial and economic success militates in the opposite direction. It underscores the reality that Israel is a strong and prosperous state that has no particular need of American assistance. Nor does it have any particular need for land in the West Bank or military control over the Jordan Valley. Instead, a very successful society’s long-term viability is severely threatened by its insistence on trying to govern a population of millions of non-citizens.

NEWS FLASH

Jewish Americans Remain Strongly In Support Of Obama | Jewish Americans gave President Obama a 60 percent job approval rating in June, a decrease from 68 percent in May but disapproval numbers remained steady, according to a newly released Gallup poll. Jewish voters continue to approve of Obama’s job performance by a 14 percent margin over approval ratings from all U.S. adults. Thirty-two percent of Jewish American’s disapprove of the job the president is doing, similar to the 30 percent average seen throughout 2011. The new poll calls into question the right-wing talking point that large numbers of Jewish Americans are defecting from the president.

NEWS FLASH

Long Deployments Affect Mental Health Of Soldiers’ Children | A new study published yesterday in the Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine says the longer U.S. soldiers were deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, the more likely their children would be diagnosed with mental health problems. Reuters reports that the study “analyzed medical records of 307,520 children of active-duty Army personnel, aged 5 to 17 years old” and “found almost 17 percent of them exhibited mental health problems.” The study’s researchers wrote that “children of parents who spent more time deployed between 2003 and 2006 fared worse than children whose parents were deployed for a shorter duration.”

National Security Brief: June 5, 2011

– U.S. Ambassador to Iraq James Jeffrey said this weekend that the United States remains open to keeping thousands of American troops in Iraq beyond the end of the year if the Iraqi government asks.

– Insurgents in Iraq detonated a car bomb in the parking lot of a government building just north of Baghdad today and set off another bomb as civilians and security forces gathered to help the victims. The bombs killed at least 35 people and wounded 47.

– National militaries around the world are increasing their reliance on unmanned ariel vehicles, as “[m]ore than 50 countries have purchased surveillance drones, and many have started in-country development programs for armed versions.”

– Canadian forces formally handed over their Kandahar battlefield to U.S. forces, marking one of the last rituals in Canada’s departure from combat mission in Afghanistan.

– The Wall Street Journal reports: “Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build an ambitious new surveillance project in China — a citywide network of as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.”

– Syrian forces swept into the city of Hama yesterday, raiding houses and hunting down anti-government activists. President Bashar al-Assad dismissed the city’s governor this weekend “in apparent political payback after hundreds of thousands of people gathered in the largest demonstration yet against Assad’s authoritarian rule.”

– A top Palestinian official reports that Russia will support a bid to seek recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this fall.

– New intelligence indicates that Pakistan’s spy agency ordered the killing of Pakistani journalist Saleem Shahzad, according to two senior Obama administration officials. Shahzad had written about the infiltration of militants into the country’s military.

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